The Inside Pitch w/Josh Towers: Ep 6
Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg talk about the hottest teams in Baseball and scour the stats to find BEST BETS for tonight and beyond!
🧠 Key Points & Insights
⚾ Dodgers' Record: 23-11, top in MLB despite a Sunday night loss. Austin Riley’s two homers were decisive.
📈 Tigers' Run Differential: 13-3 at home, 22-13 overall. Managed by A.J. Hinch, praised for non-analytic, intuitive leadership.
📊 Player OPS Standouts: Torkelson (0.889), Carpenter (0.870), Baez (0.829), Torres (0.826), Greene (0.808).
🎯 Aaron Judge Triple Crown Watch: .423 AVG, tied for MLB RBI lead (33), 2nd in HR (11). Odds: +145 to win Triple Crown.
🏅 Alonso's MVP Campaign: 13 doubles, 344 AVG, 31 RBIs. Odds: +650. Noted shift in hitting approach improving contact.
📉 Soto's Output: Criticized as underperforming with repeated mentions of uncapitalized hard contact (113.4 mph EV).
🧮 Pitching Metrics: Yamamoto praised for 2.45 xERA, elite ground ball % (15th). Brown with 1.67 ERA, expected to regress.
🔢 Weather Impact: Wind and ballpark geometry (like Yankee Stadium) analyzed for home run probability adjustments.
📉 Betting Trends: Mondays yield 60.8% overs; best home teams: Dodgers (15-3), Mets (13-3), Tigers (13-3).
🎲 Best Bets Summary: Preferred Nerfys: Yankees-Padres, Cards-Pirates, Royals-White Sox. Fade Dodgers (bullpen day) after SNB.
Summary Breakdown
Intro & Dodgers Discussion (0:02–1:44)
Seidenberg and Towers open with Cinco de Mayo reflections, pivoting to Dodgers' recent form.
Dodgers: 23-11 record, top in MLB. Padres (22-11) and Giants (22-13) also praised.
Detroit Tigers Rise (1:45–4:07)
Towers praises Javi Baez’s resurgence (near-.300 AVG), OPS leaders include Torkelson and Carpenter.
Pitching: Skubal (dominant), Mize (5-1), Flaherty (solid). Closer Tommy Kahnle: 1 ER in 12.2 IP, 5 saves.
Cardinals & Central Teams (4:56–6:38)
Cardinals swept 2 DHs but sit under .500; skepticism remains due to weak pitching and trade rumors (Nolan).
Cubs seen as leaders; Reds potential dark horse with Francona mentioned as MoY candidate.
Manager of the Year Futures (6:47–8:00)
Hinch: AL favorite (+180), Council NL favorite (+160), Francona (+950).
Towers values Hinch's preparation and "winning culture" ethos.
Judge Triple Crown Analysis (10:05–13:34)
Judge: 55/130 (.423); even 0-for-50 slump yields .306 AVG.
Recalled near-miss in 2024, faded due to playoff pressure.
Compared to Cabrera’s 2012 campaign; lauded for consistent mechanics and mentality.
Pete Alonso: MVP Candidacy (17:06–20:26)
Alonso’s evolution from HR-focused to gap-to-gap hitter detailed.
344 AVG, 31 RBIs, only 8 HRs; significant reduction in K rate.
Towers applauds offseason work and underdog mindset.
Soto’s Performance Breakdown (22:48–26:18)
Two near-HRs vs. wall in last game; 113.4 EV, robbed once.
Needs to stay back and use opposite field.
Ex-Yankee Stadium habits analyzed as possible cause of pull-happy tendencies.
Advanced Stats: wOBA and xBA (26:18–30:31)
Overperformers: Baez (0.364 wOBA vs. 0.294 xwOBA).
Underperformers: Salvy Perez (.294 → .412 xwOBA), Andrew Vaughn (expected to rise).
Torres, Peterson noted for looming correction.
Pitcher Evaluations (31:13–34:38)
Hunter Brown: 1.67 ERA, 3.02 xERA, minimal HRs.
Yamamoto: 2.45 xERA, elite command; likened to Van Gogh.
Logan Webb, Tim Hill, and Seawald discussed for GB/FB tendencies.
Betting Angles and Nerfy Focus (40:00–59:13)
Monday = best over day (60.8%), Friday next; Wednesday = top under day.
Dodgers fade after SNB recommended; under 5.5 team total.
Top Nerfy plays: Yankees-Padres, Cardinals-Pirates, White Sox-Royals.
Ryan Nelson’s volatility noted; avoided Nerfy on Mets game despite Griffin Canning’s strong record.
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