Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

This episode dismantles the idea that successful investing comes from finding the next hot thing. Instead, Don and Tom argue that good portfolios are built by eliminating what doesn’t belong: actively managed funds, sector ETFs, alternatives, high-yield bonds, gold, and other distractions that add complexity without purpose. Drawing on a Morningstar column by Amy Arnott, they reinforce that most investing mistakes come from chasing performance rather than embracing simplicity and discipline. The show also tackles listener questions on retirement “bucket” strategies, rebalancing timing, Dimensional fund structure, and annuities—emphasizing that bonds exist for stability, cash should be limited and intentional, and any strategy must be personal, rules-based, and boring enough to actually work. 0:04 Opening banter, Apple censoring Tom’s name, and the beige pudding world 1:12 Bitcoin critics, one-star reviews, and a bad 2025 for crypto 2:03 Core idea: good investing is about elimination, not prediction 2:56 Amy Arnott and the case against active management 4:07 Why past winners usually become future losers 5:28 REITs, once useful, now mostly redundant 6:01 Sector funds as performance-chasing traps 8:19 Alternatives, I Bonds, and junk bonds—complexity without payoff 10:04 Bonds explained properly: stability, not income or excitement 11:14 Gold (and Bitcoin) as non-productive speculation 13:21 Simplify first and portfolios become easier—and calmer 15:05 Retirement bucket strategy: where it helps and where it hurts 18:48 Cash as an emergency tool, not a long-term holding 21:04 MYGA annuities, safety trade-offs, and insurer risk 29:04 Insurance failures as cautionary history 31:04 DFAW explained: Core Equity 1 vs Core Equity 2 35:53 Rebalancing discipline: timing beats tinkering 39:11 Final reminder: stop watching your portfolio so much Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the year crawls to a close, Don and Tom torch the ritual of “New Year, New You” financial advice and take aim at the endless lists of five things you must do next year. They break down why year-end deadlines are mostly psychological theater, why prediction-based investing is a sucker’s game, and how even AI—when pressed—admits the truth: diversification beats cleverness, patience beats prediction, and complexity usually hides higher costs and worse outcomes. Along the way, they tackle 529 plans, proposed “Trump accounts,” Roth strategies for kids and retirees, factor investing myths, and the ongoing media obsession with whatever already went up last year. It’s a holiday episode for skeptics, cynics, and anyone tired of being told that this is finally the year everything changes. 0:04 Holiday cynicism, snow, trees plotting revenge, and Don declares war on Pollyanna finance 1:19 Year-end obsession: why December 31 is an arbitrary psychological trap 2:29 Why “five things to do in the new year” articles exist—and why they’re mostly nonsense 3:55 Asking AI for financial advice and accidentally getting decent answers 4:18 Don’s AI delivers brutal honesty: complexity isn’t sophistication, it’s camouflage 5:54 The most dangerous question of all: “What should I invest in next year?” 6:06 Everyone’s favorite prediction: AI stocks (again), and why that’s backward logic 6:29 The real answer: globally diversified equities, patiently held and largely ignored 8:07 Motley Fool, Morningstar, defense stocks, and the annual prediction circus 9:29 AI’s final verdict: everything after diversification is garnish people argue about on TV 10:33 Listener Brian on New York 529 plans, state tax deductions, and Roth rollover flexibility 11:30 How aggressive is too aggressive for a child’s college savings? 12:45 Why age-based 529 portfolios are often far more conservative than parents realize 14:10 When college money should actually shift to safety—and when it shouldn’t 15:43 The mysterious “Trump accounts”: proposed rules, confusion, and missing details 16:56 Tax treatment uncertainty, Roth myths, and why free money is still free money 18:39 Clear conclusion: this account doesn’t exist yet and nobody knows the real rules 20:05 Don’s full rant: pandering policies, financial clutter, and unnecessary complexity 22:07 Listener Larry on starting a Roth IRA for a 19-year-old with a one-fund solution 22:47 AVGE explained: global, factor-tilted, low-cost, and boring in the best way 24:15 AVGE vs. Vanguard Total World: interest vs. necessity 25:26 AVGE underperformance criticism and why one-year returns are meaningless 28:26 Why Avantis funds aren’t trying to “pick winners” and never claimed to 31:32 Listener Caroline on retirement withdrawals, IRAs, Roths, and tax reality 33:11 The unavoidable truth: you’ll pay taxes—now or later 35:43 How (and where) listeners can actually rate the show 38:01 Politics, labels, John Oliver, and why nuance is apparently illegal now 38:54 Capitalism, fairness, and refusing ideological purity tests Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this post-Christmas edition of Talking Real Money, Don McDonald and Tom Cock dismantle one of the most seductive myths in personal finance: the promise of high returns, no risk, and tax-free income. Using the lawsuit filed by Kyle Busch against Pacific Life as a case study, they expose the dark mechanics of indexed universal life insurance—hidden commissions, opaque costs, fabricated indexes, and returns that quietly disappoint. The episode then pivots to listener questions on diversification mistakes, Roth vs. traditional 401(k)s, late-career pivots into financial advice, ETF selection for retirees, and why doing less with your portfolio almost always beats doing more. 0:04 Post-Christmas welcome, Kyle Busch jokes, and why rich people get fleeced too 1:18 Indexed Universal Life explained (and why it’s not an investment) 1:45 The “bank on yourself” fantasy and why it never dies 2:27 $10.5 million in premiums and promises of $800K tax-free income 3:20 Why IULs avoid SEC and FINRA scrutiny entirely 4:21 The sixth premium notice that blew up the deal 4:41 How IULs implode if you stop paying—and why everything can vanish 5:52 “Tax-free income, high returns, no risk” exposed as marketing fiction 6:01 Hidden commissions, alleged 35% payouts, and zero disclosure 7:37 Proprietary indexes designed to benefit insurers, not investors 8:50 Internal Pacific Life doc: “Don’t call yourself a financial planner” 9:57 Why consumers can’t see costs, commissions, or real returns 11:37 Real-world IUL returns: roughly 3–5% annually 12:23 Why even Kyle Busch doesn’t actually need life insurance 13:44 Caveat emptor—and why “Life” in the firm name should trigger alarms 14:03 Listener portfolio question: 60/15/25 isn’t diversified 14:53 The S&P 500 isn’t “the market” (and seven stocks prove it) 15:54 Simple global solutions vs. portfolio over-engineering 17:11 Podcast tech humor and March seminar tease 17:22 Listener praise—and teaching people how to find podcasts 18:11 2026 seminar date confirmed: March 7 19:23 Career pivot at 53: CFP vs. AFC vs. Series 65 22:02 Why fiduciary firms are hiring—and sales shops are traps 23:22 ETF selection for retirees: growth, risk, and tax efficiency 24:27 Why Morningstar confuses more than it helps 25:07 Dimensional, Avantis, and keeping portfolios simple 26:20 Final thoughts, free fiduciary consults, and year-end wrap Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A year-end Boxing Day Q&A covering realistic downside expectations for global portfolios, the marginal value of adding international small-cap value, details for RetireMeet 2026, and a deeply skeptical look at Medicaid-compliant annuities. The common thread: diversification helps, simplicity usually wins, and when complexity shows up early, commissions are often lurking nearby. 0:04 Boxing Day confusion, goodwill, and a short-format holiday Q&A 1:07 Why this is a shorter, four-question episode to wrap the year 2:17 How much can a globally diversified stock portfolio really fall 3:06 Limits of global market data and why 2008 still sets expectations 4:11 Roughly 40% decline for global stocks in 2008 and how bonds softened the blow 4:54 Why worst-case scenarios are about expectations, not predictions 6:07 Listener portfolio with VXUS, AVUV, and SWTSX and whether to add AVDV 6:35 Balancing small-cap value exposure versus keeping things simple 7:56 Why a few basis points rarely justify added complexity 8:38 RetireMeet 2026 question and a well-earned jab at Tom’s joke delivery 10:02 RetireMeet 2026 details and early seat reservations 10:29 Event date and location: March 7, Bellevue at Meydenbauer 11:44 Medicaid-compliant annuities explained through a real family scenario 13:57 Why MCAs are usually last-resort tools, not early planning solutions 15:49 Concerns about elder law attorneys, incentives, and hidden commissions 16:35 What MCAs really do: income conversion, not asset protection 17:28 Why skepticism is healthy and shopping non-commission options matters 18:43 Closing thoughts on trust, incentives, and surviving another financial year Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s surprisingly hard to know what something is really worth until someone actually tries to buy it—and that problem is front and center in private funds. Don and Tom unpack why private equity, private real estate, and other “alternative” investments often look calm and stable on paper, only to suffer brutal price drops once they finally trade in public markets. From a Wall Street Journal example of a private real estate fund losing roughly 40% overnight, to Morningstar’s troubling enthusiasm for expensive, speculative new ETFs, the episode reinforces a core principle: prices discovered by real markets beat internal estimates every time. Along the way, listeners call in with real-world retirement questions, inherited IRA rules, portfolio simplification strategies, and a healthy dose of holiday banter. 0:04 What something is “worth” versus what someone will actually pay 1:06 Defining private funds and why valuation is murky 2:27 Private fund pricing versus real market pricing 3:56 BlueRock fund haircut: paper value meets reality 4:24 Market pricing, efficiency, and the wisdom of crowds 5:42 The myth of private investments being “less volatile” 6:27 Real estate as the perfect valuation example 7:39 Listener call: inherited IRA and annuity distribution rules 12:42 Holiday humor, crypto annuity joke, and Kentucky bourbon 16:01 Moving assets from Edward Jones, loads, and simplification 19:41 DIY portfolios versus advisor value 21:08 Morningstar’s “Best and Worst New ETFs” critique 22:21 Why most new ETFs exist (and why you don’t need them) 24:43 Shockingly high ETF expense ratios 26:27 Leveraged crypto ETFs and financial absurdity 27:37 Seasonal podcast plug and ratings gripe 28:44 Listener call: Boeing retirement and rollover planning 34:40 Holiday reflections, gratitude, and comfort over riches Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices