The Julia La Roche Show

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a wild week: the midterms, the November 5 sell-off and a hot jobs report. He calls the Republican losses an “extinction event,” but argues it could be good for mainstream Republicans and moderate Democrats, and says Democrats now own the affordability issue. With 165,000 jobs added in October and the economy still running hot, he expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, now free of election-year politics, to hike in December. Whalen sees the sell-off as a possible entry point but says not to hurry. He warns of diesel shortages and a jump in food prices next year, with mortgage rates near 7.4%. Plus: why he expects consolidation in the mortgage industry and REITs exiting, why manufactured housing is a bright spot, and why he disagrees with Jim Bianco on bonds and doesn’t see the 10-year at 4%. He also explains why he’s adding to gold, which he thinks has found a floor. A viewer asks why gold has gone nowhere while the debt has climbed $3 trillion.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

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Timestamps:
0:00 Preview: how high would Warsh have to hike?
0:25 Welcome to The Wrap, in studio
0:47 Remember the 5th of November: midterms and the sell-off
1:13 Why the GOP loss could be a good thing
3:06 “Extinction event” and the moderate Democrats’ win
4:04 Jobs day: 165,000 jobs in October
4:24 How high would Warsh have to hike?
4:42 Democrats now own affordability: diesel and food prices
6:41 Should you worry about the sell-off?
7:16 Worries in the mortgage industry
8:09 What it would take: 6.5% mortgages
9:31 Should we get used to 7% mortgages?
10:53 Manufactured housing as a solution
12:33 The GOP’s path to recovery
16:06 The next two years for investors: gridlock
17:45 Where to invest now: energy, bonds, financials
18:22 Bonds: why the 10-year won’t hit 4%
21:24 Does the new Congress change inflation?
22:37 Warsh is free to hike: look to December
24:15 Is there a 10-year yield he’d buy?
26:30 Gold: a short-term move or something more?
28:10 Bank picks: Flagstar and the Canadian banks
30:44 Viewer question: why has gold gone nowhere as debt climbed?
32:44 What to watch next week

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, joins Julia the morning after the midterms with a bold call: the bottom is in, and the final run of the longest bull market of our lifetimes starts now. He expects the Nasdaq to rally about 30%, with a dip around Thanksgiving and a top around January. Then a bust that he says follows the 2007 template, with the S&P potentially falling to about 3,500. Zeberg explains why markets often rally hardest as the economy rolls over, and walks through his business cycle framework: housing leads, jobs follow, and the consumer (“Mrs. Johnson”) decides everything. He argues the bust will be deflationary first. When the Fed steps in, he expects it to create stagflation it can’t fix. He says gold could dip to about $3,000 first before heading to $25,000–$30,000 in the 2030s, and that bond yields have already topped. The next domino he’s watching is private credit, which he calls the “nuclear bomb” that’s far bigger than people think.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
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Links:
X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg
Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/
Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201
TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Henrik Zeberg
1:19 “Now we rally”: why the bottom is in
3:33 AI’s first dominoes and a weakening economy
5:27 The 2007 template
5:57 New bull market or blow-off top?
7:44 Why markets rally when things are bad
10:13 Where the blow-off top began, and S&P 3,500
11:58 His business cycle framework
14:18 Housing leads, jobs follow
16:41 Why printing money can’t stop a recession
18:28 AI, the bubble and the Fourth Turning
25:13 Deflation first, then stagflation
28:15 Gold: why it falls first and $25,000–$30,000 later
32:05 Have bond yields topped?
35:19 Timing the top: January
38:04 What would change his call
39:21 Private credit: the “nuclear bomb”
42:39 Parting advice

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche in studio for the first time in a year with a big shift: after six years of being bearish on bonds, he’s turned neutral and even launched a bond fund. He argues 5% yields are fair value, not a crisis, because we’re now in a world of 3% inflation and 2% growth. He says that world exists by choice: Washington won’t let cheap Chinese goods back in, as shown by the $15,000 Chinese electric car the U.S. has effectively banned, and wage-driven services inflation stays sticky. On the midterms, he says the key question is whether moderate Democrats can outvote the Democratic Socialists. Bianco also explains why Silicon Valley thinks it has too little compute while Wall Street fears it has too much, why he thinks banks are blocking AI agents to protect $120 billion a year in profits, and why AI is a bubble with years left to run. He explains why a divided Fed under Kevin Warsh is a good thing. And his contrarian call: the labor market is fine, because with a shrinking workforce the economy needs only about 30,000 new jobs a year.

Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors:
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:  
BiancoResearch.com  
BiancoAdvisors.com
x.com/biancoresearch

Timestamps
0:00 Preview: a low-risk entry for bonds
0:19 Welcome Jim Bianco
1:02 Why he turned on bonds after six years
3:25 What would make him bullish
4:14 A value call, not a call for lower yields
6:54 How high would yields have to go?
7:23 The biggest risk: inflation
11:42 Why 3% inflation is a choice
12:10 The $15,000 car America won’t let in
14:20 Why services inflation stays sticky
15:16 Get used to 3% inflation
17:57 Midterms: which Democratic Party wins?
21:16 What it means for markets
22:39 Last week’s drawdown: Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street on AI
25:52 Why personal AI agents are game changers
27:37 Why banks are blocking AI agents
29:19 Amazon vs. Perplexity
31:28 Is AI a bubble?
33:46 A genuinely different Fed under Warsh
35:50 Does a divided Fed mean more volatility?
38:35 Contrarian call: the labor market is fine
40:31 Why we only need 30,000 jobs a year
42:33 Wrap-up

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris reacts to the Fed’s 10–2 hold. He compares Kevin Warsh to Paul Volcker, who he says paused his inflation fight before the 1980 election for political reasons, and argues Warsh’s inaction is eroding his credibility. He predicts Democrats will gain 20+ House seats in next week’s midterms, with the Senate a toss-up. He also explains why tech companies will have to fund AI with stock instead of debt, and why he thinks half of planned data centers can’t get built. Whalen calls the NAIC’s retreat on policing private ratings a big win for private credit, warning that annuity and life insurance holders now have “nobody looking out for you.” He points to Baltimore mortgage fraud as an example. Plus: rising government mortgage delinquencies, refinances falling below 20% of volume, his scoop on UWM’s servicing sale, why 3.4% GDP growth is fueled by a $2 trillion deficit, and a viewer question on Flagstar’s preferred stock.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing
⁠
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome to The Wrap
1:18 Warsh and Volcker: playing politics?
3:02 Is Warsh’s credibility eroding?
4:38 Midterm predictions
6:09 Is the bond market tightening for the Fed?
7:35 Why half of planned data centers can’t happen
9:19 Can Warsh break with the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era?
12:02 What people are missing about Warsh
13:30 Private credit beats the insurance regulators
16:41 What it means for annuity holders
17:32 Baltimore’s mortgage fraud problem
18:37 Are the banks exposed?
19:33 Mortgage pain ahead: delinquencies and Ginnie Mae
22:46 Is there a contrarian case for UWM?
25:54 3.4% GDP and the $2 trillion deficit
27:24 Iran war: how much inflation is transitory?
29:14 Viewer question: Flagstar’s preferred stock
31:03 What to watch after the midterms

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

On Fed Day, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, joins Julia in studio to react to the Fed’s 10–2 vote to hold rates. She calls it a hawkish hold and says the real surprise was Governor Lisa Cook’s dissent alongside Beth Hammack’s, a move she sees as political after renewed attacks from President Trump. Booth calls Kevin Warsh’s press conference “word salad” and says his refusal to call financial conditions tight protects his narrative more than it reflects reality. She warns that hyperscalers are on a debt treadmill they can’t stop, and that more than 100% of GDP growth is now coming from AI. Further tightening, she argues, could slam the economy into a recession rather than ease it into one. She says Warsh is ignoring the inflation breadth measure he told markets to watch at Jackson Hole, along with the underemployed renters missing from jobless claims. The Fed’s biggest blind spot, she says, is the credit market, especially with foreign investors piled into the AI trade.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:    
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:
0:00 Preview: “They can’t afford the rent”
0:26 Welcome: Fed Day reaction
0:57 Lisa Cook’s surprise dissent
2:54 Why it was a hawkish hold
3:57 Warsh and financial conditions: “in touch with his narrative”
5:14 An unsatisfying press conference
6:13 Liquidity into year-end and the $100 billion IPO
7:32 The hyperscalers’ debt treadmill
8:25 Could Warsh slam the economy into recession?
8:47 What jobless claims are missing
12:13 Lessons from Halloween 2018 and the Powell pivot
13:10 How fast the rate-cut debate could flip
13:57 Fewer Fed meetings and the risk of an emergency cut
14:39 “Fed Up” again: renters and the underemployed
15:36 Inflation breadth: Warsh’s own yardstick
17:02 More than 100% of GDP growth is AI
18:09 What a blue wave could mean for AI
18:55 What the Fed is underestimating: credit
19:55 Wrap-up