In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua discusses the Trump effect on US GDP growth and on recent election outcomes in Canada, Australia and Singapore. The flight to safety by voters and investors have favoured familiar incumbents and driven capital flows into gold, European equities and Chinese stocks. Markets are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode as investors await the FOMC rate decision on 7 May and the BoE decision a day later. The age-old adage to ‘Sell in May and go away’ could prompt some risk-averse investors to reconsider their stock positions. Historical evidence supports outperformance in the November-April time period, albeit 68% of the time.
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6:03
The Week in Markets: Markets rebound as US softens its tone
US Treasuries and equities staged a strong comeback last week after US President Donald Trump appeared to strike a conciliatory tone on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and on the tariff deadlock with China. However, several US manufacturing activity indicators point to renewed contraction in regional manufacturing activities, and polls conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post revealed that 64% of respondents disapprove of the Trump tariffs, and 7 in 10 believe that the tariffs will lead to higher inflation.Against this backdrop, Julius Baer now expects two 50 bps rate cuts for the US, and have raised its recession probability to 50% from 35% for the next 12 months.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.
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6:22
The Week in Markets: Fed's independence under pressure
US President Donald Trump escalated his open criticism of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Monday, sparking concerns about the central bank’s independence. Meanwhile,Trump is also ramping up pressure on China, imposing fresh restrictions on the export of Nvidia's H20 AI chips. However, the University of Michigan consumer survey indicates that US consumer sentiment is rapidly declining, arguably placing him under growing pressure to strike a deal with Beijing.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer.
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9:05
Tariff Shock: Can bonds still beat rising inflation?
The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury moved up 50 basis points last week, representing one of the most significant single-week increases on record. As the US administration's unpredictable tariff policies continue to unsettle markets, how can investors navigate this challenging investment landscape?Steve Wang, Fixed Income Specialist Asia at Julius Baer, sits down with Esteban Burbano, Managing Director and Fixed Income Strategist at PIMCO, to discuss the current economic picture, the impact of tariffs on inflation expectations and how the Federal Reserve might respond, the state of the US Treasury market, and the opportunities in the fixed income market amidst this unprecedented volatility.(This episode was recorded on 17 April 2025)
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Understanding Trump’s tariffs: what it all means for investors
US President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements sent shockwaves through financial markets and 2 April 2025 will certainly be remembered as a hugely significant day. But what are the implications for investors in the wake of all the tariff-related uncertainty? In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about navigating the world of investing post-Liberation day. They discuss the risk of a recession, the role of US and non-US assets in portfolios, the outlook for safe-haven assets including the US dollar, and much more.00:31 Introduction01:07 Has the risk of a US and global recession increased?03:24 What is the expected timeline now?05:20 Is it possible to say what Trump’s plan is?06:41 The US Federal Reserve’s dilemma08:14 Impact on capital flows to the US09:49 Adjusting exposure to US and non-US assets10:58 Where do US technology stocks go from here?12:36 The outlook for the US dollar now15:21 The reaction of the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen16:23 Historic moves in bond markets18:46 What to focus on now in the fixed income space20:19 Thoughts on gold in the current environment22:16 What does the situation mean for Swiss equities?23:38 The role of Chinese equities in a portfolio26:44 The significance of talks between the EU and China27:49 Exposure to India to increase portfolio diversification29:02 The relevance of the Q1 earnings season30:29 Oil prices under pressure31:48 Our expectations for the rest of the year33:31 OutroWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape.
The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.
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