The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost

Ruchir Sharma, Chair of Rockefeller International and Founder and CIO of Breakout Capital, joins The Master Investor Podcast for a sweeping tour of today’s markets, the fading of “American exceptionalism” and what he thinks investors are getting wrong about risk. After 25 years at Morgan Stanley, where he ran emerging markets and served as Chief Global Strategist, Sharma now splits his time between managing money and writing bestselling books including Breakout Nations, The Rise and Fall of Nations, Democracy on the Road and What Went Wrong With Capitalism.​

In this episode, Ruchir lays out his case that the long dominance of US equities is giving way to a multi‑year period of international outperformance, driven by better earnings growth, higher shareholder payouts and a turning dollar cycle – and why he sees the US share of global indices falling back toward 50% over time from the current 65% level. The bull case for US markets are “a good story that has gone too far.”

Ruchir also digs into the Fed’s next move, arguing there is “no justification” for rate cuts with core inflation still closer to 3% and financial conditions loose, and why politically driven cuts would be structurally negative for the dollar. We discuss his evolving view on gold – from early bull to current agnostic as price action turns “parabolic” – and why he now prefers a broader toolkit of inflation hedges, from other commodities to inflation‑linked bonds.​

On countries, Ruchir contrasts India’s steady 6% growth with its volatile market cycles, China’s demographic and debt squeeze despite a softer tone from Beijing toward the private sector, and why he’s far more excited by under‑owned markets from Brazil to Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. He also unpacks the political consequences of inflation in developed markets, the rise of an anti‑incumbency bias for developed market voters, and his core thesis that capitalism has been “ruined by government” through ever‑expanding spending, regulation and bailouts.​

We finish with Ruchir’s overriding pieces of advice: in investing, temperament beats spreadsheet skill, and in life, “live in parallel” – cultivating a second vocation or passion, as he has with writing, to stay grounded when markets and careers become all‑consuming.

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

 

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

 

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

 

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.

In this special bonus episode, author, journalist and Founder and CIO of Breakout Capital, Ruchir Sharma, explores and interprets the market reaction to the US-Israel war with Iran so far. Ruchir, who is also Chairman of Rockefeller International, and former Chief Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, argues the market reaction is relatively calm and that most of the negative reaction has been de-grossing of markets that had recently outperformed. He explains what he is looking out for that would suggest things are spinning out of control and warrant a deeper, longer lasting sell off. Wilf’s full conversation with Ruchir drops on Monday 9 March - make sure you  hit follow or subscribe so you don’t miss it!

 

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

 

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

 

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

 

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.

Greg Peters oversees $1.2 trillion of fixed income investment as the co-CIO of Fixed Income at PGIM, and in this episode of The Master Investor Podcast offers a bond investing masterclass from the basics to the factors driving his current positioning.

Greg breaks down how he analyses long-term government debt – including debt sustainability, growth outlook, central bank independence and the rule of law – and why US Treasuries still enjoy a unique safe-haven status versus markets like the UK, France and Japan, even if he increasingly thinks the direction of travel is higher for long term US bond yields. 

Despite challenges for sovereign bonds, he sees more value there than in credit with spreads at historical lows. He outlines the key factors he looks for when assessing corporate bonds and how company analysis differs for an equity investor compared to a debt investor. He also explores the way in which an equity investor plays for the upside and bond investors limit the downside, and the key factor for a debt investor:free cash flow.

As  Greg explains, this is why he worries about the market happily lending money to the hyperscalers for their AI build out, which is driving many of the biggest companies in the world to flip suddenly from being incredibly safe to free cash flow negative. He also discusses the head scratching and concerning decision for them to fund so much of this investment via debt, often held off balance sheets via SPV’s, rather than by equity. 

Greg shares his framework for thinking about inflation in the AI era, why he prefers taking duration risk closer to the front end of yield curves, and his overarching advice to investors: stay humble, abandon point forecasts, and build scenario-based models that recognise just how wide the cone of outcomes really is.

 

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

 

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

 

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

 

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.

Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU Stern School of Business, joins Wilf to reveal that he is more cautious of the equity market today than at any point in his career.

Because of this he has “more cash in my portfolio now than at any time in history”, and says this is a time to harvest profits gained in recent years as opposed to sowing more crops. He has recently sold his position in Nvidia accordingly. 

Aswath shares his core reason for market concern, including the erosion of trust in economic institutions, and the move from a post WWII economic world order to an as yet unknown future, which he argues the market is too relaxed about.

He is sceptical of both the companies making AI who have overspent on CapEx, AND the companies due to use AI, arguing that rather than deliver greater efficiencies they will erode profitability – “if everybody has it, nobody has it”.

However – he does not believe in trying to time the market, and he reveals his cash balance is 15% not 50%, and that he still holds 5 of the Magnificent 7, his favourites being Apple, Amazon and Alphabet. 

Aswath shares many of his core investing principles including how you know when to sell a stock as well as when to buy it; why buybacks have done more good than bad; why we should listen to what the gold surge is telling us even if gold cannot be valued, only priced; and why you must view investing as a way to preserve and growth wealth not to get rich.

There is also some life advice too - the importance of idling, and finding space to dream. 

 

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

 

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

 

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

 

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.

Mason Morfit is the co-CEO and CIO of ValueAct Capital and in this incredibly rare extended interview he outlines the unique investment approach that defines ValueAct - “quiet” but highly engaged activism, using long-term partnerships with management teams to transform great but drifting companies like Microsoft in 2013 and Salesforce in 2022.

Mason contrasts the short-term, transactional culture he saw as a young banker during the dot-com boom with ValueAct’s model of deep, long-term relationships focused on understanding management’s psychology and context rather than attacking them. 

According to Mason, ValueAct aims to provide a safe space for CEOs to pivot, avoiding berating or public confrontation, because that typically makes management defensive and less open to needed change.

Mason talks Wilf through some of ValueAct’s key positions including their 2013 investment in an out-of-favour Microsoft, then trading on a low multiple and seen as having missed search, phone and tablet. From his board seat, Mason helped highlight the billions in annual losses tied to devices and the Windows Phone, clarifying the opportunity to reallocate capital toward Office and Azure and supporting Satya Nadella’s strategic pivot. He uses this as a textbook example of what an engaged, analytical shareholder can add inside a boardroom that otherwise lacks a large, financially sophisticated owner at the table.

Mason also outlines ValueAct’s current core theme: “everything digitizes, everything organizes, everything automates,” arguing that the real bottleneck for AI isn’t flashy models but the messy middle step of organizing data and rights. Using Spotify as an illustration, he describes how the hard work was not digitizing music but building the global rights, standards, and audit infrastructure that then allowed automated recommendations and playlists to flourish. He then links those lessons and the Microsoft experience to Salesforce, where ValueAct pushed on unit economics, a clearer product matrix, and bundled pricing, helping drive a sharp margin and share-price recovery before the recent AI-driven SaaS sell-off. On the current fear that AI tools will “eat SaaS’s lunch,” he argues incumbents like Salesforce retain huge advantages in identity, permissions, compliance and long-term contracts, much as Microsoft Office ultimately outcompeted early cloud-native rivals.

Mason reflects on his most significant new position – BlackRock – as it transitions from a traditional asset manager into one of the industry's premier data and software companies. He views BlackRock as a dominant player in the "digitize, organize, and automate" megatrend and perfect example of a company whose opportunity set will expand further as it grows. He also discusses Disney and closes on his key investment advice - stay young in your thinking.

 

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

 

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

 

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

 

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.