Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 Crop Tour Shocks the Corn Market — Pro Farmer's survey pegged national corn yield at just 173.2 bpa (15.34 bil bu), well under USDA's 180.7 bpa estimate, with Iowa fields hiding disappointing grain length despite looking strong from the road. Soybeans told the opposite story, with a record 53.3 bpa yield (4.57 bil bu) projected as conditions improved heading west. 📈

💹 Grains Rally on Bullish Tour Data — Corn closed up for a third straight session, with Dec26 gaining 5 cents to ~$5.09, while Nov26 soybeans rose 3 cents to ~$12.40 on tight supply fears and Chinese demand. ❌ Wheat slipped as traders eyed alternative suppliers amid ongoing Black Sea export disruptions.

🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying Beans — USDA flash sales showed 712,000mt of soybeans sold to China and another 720,000mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/27 delivery. 🌽 Corn also saw 205,000mt sold to an unknown buyer for the new marketing year.

📊 Funds Pile Into Corn & Beans — The latest CoT report showed managed money adding 56k corn contracts (now net long 182k, the biggest since May) and 43k soybean contracts. 🌾 SRW wheat funds added a modest 8k contracts on the week.

🚢 Russia Scrambles to Support Farmers — With over 97% of Black Sea export capacity offline from ongoing strikes, Moscow is weighing loan extensions, subsidies, and government grain purchases to help exporters. 🌍 Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, so the standstill carries major global weight.

🥩 Trump Opens the Door to Cheaper Beef Imports — The administration will allow 300,000mt of tariff-free ground beef imports over 90 days, with exporters agreeing to a 25% discount they claim will reach consumers. 🐄 Cattle groups are pushing back hard, though the volume is only ~2% of US consumption.

📋 Cattle on Feed: Mixed Signals — August 1 cattle on feed hit 11.12 mil head (+2% YoY), with July placements down 11% (a bullish surprise) but longer feeding times masking a shrinking cowherd. 🚪 The report may get overshadowed by Trump's beef tariff news and today's reopening of the border to Mexican cattle.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results — Iowa corn came in at 194 bpa (above the 3-yr average) while Minnesota hit 199 bpa, both showing solid potential despite some pollination and drought stress. Soybean pod counts were strong in both states, especially Minnesota's impressive 15% jump above its 3-yr average. 📈

📊 Grain Futures Update — Corn (Dec26) crept up to ~$5.04/bu on mixed Crop Tour results, while soybeans (Nov26) slipped slightly to ~$12.37/bu amid farmer selling vs. export demand. Wheat stayed mixed as buyers eye alternatives to Black Sea supply. 🌾

🚢 Export Sales Snapshot — Corn sales dipped last week (Japan the top buyer) but new-crop corn and soybean sales were strong, with soybeans hitting 1.7mmt in new-crop demand led by the Netherlands. Wheat sales beat expectations, up 54% week-over-week with Mexico leading purchases. 🌍

🚜 John Deere Optimism — Deere raised its profit forecast and shares jumped up to 10% on stronger 2027 equipment orders and normalizing used-equipment values. The recovery is still gradual, with regional sales down 15-20%, though Deere recovered $382M in tariff costs. 💰

🇧🇷 Brazil's Corn Deficit Widens — Booming ethanol demand is projected to push Brazil's corn deficit to 7.2mmt, up 167% from last season. Rising livestock feed use and slower production growth (due to tight credit) are compounding the squeeze. ⛽

🏥 Farmer Health Insurance Strain — Expiring ACA subsidies have driven premiums sharply higher for many farm families, adding financial pressure on top of tough margins. In Wisconsin alone, 14% of farm families now have no coverage at all, with another 17% relying only on catastrophic plans. 😟

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌱 Soybeans led a broad grain rally Wednesday, with Nov26 jumping ~21¢ to settle near $12.37/bu on disappointing Crop Tour results. Corn and wheat joined the move higher too, with Dec26 corn topping $5.00/bu overnight for the first time since May 19th! 🌽

🚜 The Pro Farmer Crop Tour hit Illinois and western Iowa, finding IL corn yields down 7.7% YoY at 184.2 bpa and soybean pod counts below both last year and the 3-year average. Iowa fared better, with soybean estimates topping the 3-year average even as disease pressure showed up more than expected. 🔍

🏦 Fed July meeting minutes signaled another rate hike may still be needed if inflation doesn't cool toward the 2% target, even with annual inflation sitting at 3.4%. But softer economic data since then has cut September hike odds to just 36%, down from 70% at the end of July. 📉

⛈️ Severe storms are lining up across the Corn Belt, with Thursday's threat stretching from Nebraska to Minnesota and expanding Friday into Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. More rounds are expected through the weekend, raising flash flooding and crop damage concerns on already-saturated fields. 🌩️

🚢 Black Sea shipping disruptions could slash Ukraine's wheat exports to just 5-10mmt this season, down from ~14mmt last year, as over 97% of Azov/Black Sea export capacity is lost to ongoing attacks. Ukraine is leaning on rail, the Danube, and road routes, which could cover roughly half of normal export potential. 🌾

⛽ US ethanol output slipped to 1.1mil bbl/day last week, down 2.5% from the prior week, while stocks climbed to a 15-week high of 25.12mil barrels. Corn Belt margins softened slightly but stayed positive, running 15-35 cents in the black. 💰

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results – Indiana corn came in at 183.5 bpa (down 5.3% YoY) while Nebraska corn was pegged at 163.6 bpa (down 8.9% YoY), with dryland fields dragging down state averages. 📉 Soybean pod counts were also lower in both states, and standing water in Indiana is raising disease pressure concerns.

🌱 Soybean & Corn Futures Update – Soybeans rallied for a third straight session, with Nov26 closing near $12.17/bu on yield worries, Chinese demand, and rising crude prices. 🌾 Corn slipped slightly, with Dec26 settling at $4.88/bu as traders digest crop tour data, while wheat stayed weak despite Black Sea turmoil.

⛽ Diesel Margins Hit Record Highs – US diesel refining margins topped $100/barrel for the first time ever as the US-Iran war disrupts Strait of Hormuz flows. 🔥 Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries are adding fuel to the fire, potentially meaning pricier heating costs this winter.

🌤️ Cooler, Wetter Pattern Incoming – A jet stream dip starting Thursday will bring cooler Canadian air into the Corn Belt, with highs in the 70s-80s and lows dipping into the 40s-50s. ☔ More rain is expected Friday into next week, which could relieve heat stress but worsen saturation in already-soggy fields.

🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying Soybeans – USDA confirmed another flash sale of 136,000mt to China for 2026/2027 delivery, pushing new crop purchases to 22.3% of the White House's 25mmt goal. ✅ Old crop purchases already blew past their target, hitting 104% of the outlined goal.

🚢 Black Sea Shipping Chaos Deepens—Five grain vessels were attacked near Novorossiysk and Tuapse this week as Russia-Ukraine strikes on ports continue to escalate. ⚠️ With Azov Sea shipments halted since July 10 and terminals suspending operations, roughly a quarter of global wheat exports are increasingly at risk.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results (SD & OH): South Dakota corn came in at 149.1 bpa (-14% YoY) with soybean pods down 20% YoY, both falling short of USDA's estimates. Ohio fared better at 180.2 bpa for corn (-3% YoY), but the tour's steeper declines vs. USDA in both states could be seen as a friendly signal for prices! 📉

🚀 Soybeans Rally Hard: Nov26 beans jumped nearly 24 cents to $12.16/bu — the highest close since late July — fueled by excessive Corn Belt rainfall fears, a strong NOPA crush report, and rising crude oil. Corn also gained ~6 cents to settle near $4.90/bu on Dec26, while wheat traders took profits despite Black Sea shipping worries lurking in the background. 🌧️💰

📊 Crop Conditions Slip: US corn conditions dipped to 60% good-to-excellent (below the 5-year average of 62%), and soybeans slid to 61% good-to-excellent as well. Spring wheat bucked the trend, improving to 52% G/E with harvest racing ahead of schedule at 41% complete! 🌾

🏭 NOPA Crush Report – Record July: Soybean crush hit a record for the month at 216.65 million bushels, up 11% YoY, though it missed trade estimates. Soybean oil stocks crashed to a 9-month low of 1.36 billion lbs — the lowest July level on record — signaling red-hot demand for soy products! 🛢️📉

🚢 Export Inspections – Mixed Bag: Corn shipments surged to a 10-week high at 75 million bushels (+82% YoY!), while soybean shipments disappointed at just 10 million bushels (-46% YoY) with zero activity from China. Wheat exports beat expectations too, climbing 22% YoY to 18 million bushels! 🇨🇳❌

🧪 Phosphate Makes a Comeback: Moroccan phosphate returned to the US for the first time in 5 years, with 54,000mt landing in New Orleans after countervailing duty relief. Don't expect a price crash though — global phosphate supply remains extremely tight, with roughly two-thirds constrained worldwide! ⚗️💵