Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🕊️ President Trump says he's in no rush on an Iran deal but warned military action remains on the table if negotiations fail. A tentative 60-day ceasefire extension was agreed upon, though Trump reportedly sent back a revised framework with tougher terms.

⛽ Oil prices tumbled more than 9% last week on deal optimism, hitting a six-week low, while the national average for regular unleaded gasoline remained elevated at $4.34 per gallon. WTI crude posted its steepest weekly decline since mid-April.

🌽 Corn futures fell roughly 7 cents Friday, with the Dec26 contract settling at $4.75—its lowest since mid-April—pressured by weak crude oil and favorable Corn Belt growing conditions. Soybeans edged lower while wheat took a sharp hit on ample global supplies despite ongoing Plains drought damage.

🌧️ Weekend rains hit the western Corn Belt, Plains, and Southeast, but the central Corn Belt saw little to no moisture. The 7-day forecast calls for widespread Plains rainfall and decent coverage in the western and central Corn Belt, though the eastern Corn Belt may stay dry for another week.

📦 Weekly corn export sales came in at 40 million bushels, down 52% from the prior week, while soybean sales totaled 11 million bushels and wheat posted a marketing year low. Notably, China has yet to book any new-crop US soybean purchases.

📊 Money managers were heavy sellers last week, offloading 82k corn contracts, 14k soybean contracts, and 13k SRW wheat contracts. Since early May, funds have shed a total of 133k corn contracts.

🐛 A New World screwworm case was detected just 31 miles from the US border in a sheep, marking the closest confirmed detection yet. If the parasite enters the US cattle supply, it could further tighten already historically low herd numbers and push beef prices even higher.

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🌧️☔ Excessive rainfall across major agricultural regions in China is raising concerns about potential crop damage, with heavy precipitation expected to persist through the end of May and into early June. Prolonged wet conditions have delayed wheat development, flattened fields, and are creating favorable conditions for pests and disease. 🌾📉

🤫🌽 Unconfirmed rumors suggest China may reduce tariffs on grain imports, potentially increasing the likelihood of US purchases. A White House fact sheet from May 17th indicated China could buy $17 billion in US non-soybean ag products annually, and Bloomberg previously reported discussions around possible corn purchases. 💵🤝

📈🫘 Soybean futures rallied Thursday, with the Nov26 contract gaining nearly 13 cents to settle at $11.94/bu, while the Dec26 corn contract rose roughly 5 cents to settle near $4.82/bu. Wheat futures were narrowly mixed, as traders appear to have largely priced in poor US winter wheat conditions and are shifting focus toward ample global supplies. 🌍⚖️

🕊️💣 The US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, though President Trump has yet to approve the deal. Key US demands include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to Iran's nuclear program, while Iran seeks sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. 🛢️📜

🛢️📊 Crude oil prices edged higher early Thursday following overnight clashes but faded during the session, with WTI rising just 0.3% to around $89/barrel. Ongoing military exchanges between the US and Iran continue to highlight the fragility of the ceasefire. ⚔️😬

🌵🗺️ The USDA's weekly drought monitor showed improvements in Kentucky, southern Ohio, and southern Indiana following heavy Ohio Valley rainfall, while conditions worsened across northern Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Iowa. Severe drought continues to grip much of the High Plains, with roughly 90% of Nebraska experiencing some level of drought. 🌾😰

⛽📉 US ethanol production dipped last week but remained at a seasonal high, with weekly output at 1.09 million barrels per day — up 5.1% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks climbed to 24.97 million barrels, and margins across the Corn Belt remain robust at 10 to 45 cents positive. 💪🌽

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🌾 India is ramping up urea imports ahead of peak planting season, but despite buying at nearly double pre-conflict prices, the country still faces a significant supply shortfall. Surprisingly, the tender announcement failed to rally global urea markets, as traders are more focused on potential Chinese export resumption and hopes for a Strait of Hormuz peace deal.

☮️ The US and Iran are struggling to finalize a peace deal, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction over current terms and warning that strikes could resume. Despite cautious optimism pushing WTI crude down to the high $80s earlier this week, overnight tensions have pushed spot prices back into the $90–91/bbl range.

🌽 Corn futures hit their lowest level in over a month, dropping nearly 5 cents to close around $4.78/bu as crude oil's sharp selloff weighed heavily on the market. Wheat posted its fifth straight day of losses despite poor US winter wheat conditions, with Chicago and KC contracts both settling lower.
🇧🇷 Brazilian farm bankruptcies have surged tenfold since 2021, prompting banks to tighten lending terms and seize assets even during bankruptcy proceedings. Consolidation appears to be the likely outcome, with larger operations absorbing smaller farms squeezed by low commodity prices, high rates, and rising input costs.

⛽ The year-round E15 bill faces an uphill battle in the Senate, as it's widely considered unlikely to pass as standalone legislation. The inclusion of a Small Refinery Exemptions restructure has complicated its path, though it could still advance if attached to the farm bill, defense authorization, or an appropriations bill.

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🌽 Corn and soybean futures fell Tuesday on a favorable weather outlook, with drier forecasts expected to boost planting progress across the Corn Belt. Wheat extended its losing streak for a fourth straight session as Plains rainfall came too late to meaningfully help crop conditions.

🛢️ Oil surged nearly 3% after US forces struck Iranian missile sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran, reigniting Middle East tensions. Iran vowed retaliation and called overnight strikes near Bandar Abbas a ceasefire violation, though WTI futures are trading lower this morning.

🌾 USDA's latest crop progress report showed winter wheat conditions hit their worst rating since records began in 1986, with just 26% rated good-to-excellent. Corn and soybean planting both came in ahead of their five-year averages, signaling solid early-season field progress.

🌍 The European Commission cut its 2026/27 soft wheat forecast to 126.9mmt, down 6% from last season, amid a heat wave battering western Europe. Traders are also watching whether soaring fertilizer and energy costs tied to the Iran conflict could shift global acreage away from corn.

📦 US corn export inspections jumped 13% week-over-week and 11% year-over-year, while soybean shipments beat pre-report expectations. Wheat shipments came in near the lower end of estimates, running 35% below the same week last year.

⚖️ President Trump is pushing to keep the CFTC in control of prediction markets and crypto, as Minnesota becomes the first state to ban prediction market platforms. Critics are raising conflict-of-interest concerns given Trump's family financial ties to both industries.

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🛢️ Oil prices tumbled Monday as Trump teased a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — but Iranian officials quickly pumped the brakes on the optimism. Hours later, US and Israeli jets struck Iranian vessels in the strait, yet crude stayed lower while equities pushed higher.

🌽 Grain futures dipped overnight on the oil selloff but clawed back some gains, with the Dec26 corn contract notably holding key trend support. Keep an eye on the central Corn Belt — extended models show it staying bone dry well into the 15-16 day forecast period.

📊 The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of corn and beans last week, offloading 2k and 10k contracts, respectively. Funds did flip to buyers in SRW wheat, picking up 15k contracts on the week.

🚜 Some farmers are calling for more financial aid as fuel and fertilizer costssurge,e tied to the Middle East conflict—though the real pain may not hit until fall input-buying season for 2027. Year-round E15 legislation is also back on the table as producers look for any relief they can get.

📦 USDA flashed some bullish export news Friday, with nearly 20 million bushels of corn sold to Mexico and 4 million more to unknown destinations. Soybean meal also moved, with 252,000mt sold split across the current and next marketing year.

🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report leaned bearish, with May 1 inventories up 2% year-over-year and April placements coming in 6% above last year. Drought across the Plains is forcing early cattle sales, even as the domestic cowherd sits at its lowest level in 75 years.