Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 Iowa Weather & Crops — Warm, dry conditions gave Iowa farmers 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork last week, pushing corn and soybeans through key growth stages, though dry soil is becoming a concern as corn enters pollination. 🌧️ A more active pattern with widespread rain chances is on tap for the Corn Belt this week, though the GFS turned notably drier (and warmer) overnight vs. yesterday's run.

🌾 Wheat Rallies on Black Sea Tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~9 cents to $7.33/bu and KC wheat gained 4 cents to $6.78/bu after Russia banned vessels from anchoring at two Sea of Azov ports. 🚢 Analysts already slashed Russia's July export forecast 25%, while ongoing strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea ports have cut its export capacity by roughly a third.

🇺🇸 Grassley Pushes Market Solutions — Senator Grassley says farmers need stronger markets over more government payments, backing year-round E15 as a bigger long-term fix than the proposed $11B aid package. 💰 He's also renewing calls to cut production costs, pointing to his Fertilizer Research Act and pressing the Trump administration on why Brazil's costs run so much lower.

📉 Sovecon Cuts Russian Wheat Forecast — Sovecon trimmed its 2026 Russian wheat estimate to 88.3mmt from 88.9mmt on weak southern yields, down from last season's 91.4mmt crop. ⚔️ The downgrade lands right as Black Sea shipping tensions heat back up.

🥇 Kalshi Eyes Metals Perpetuals — Kalshi has asked the CFTC to approve perpetual futures on gold, silver, and platinum, building on its May approval for crypto perps. ⚖️ CME is, meanwhile, suing over whether these "perpetual futures" are really just unregulated swaps, with Kalshi's bitcoin perp alone moving $31.5B in 24 hr volume.

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🌱 Soybeans surged to a two-month high near $12.26/bu as hot, dry Corn Belt weather and fresh Chinese buying fueled the rally. 🇨🇳 Renewed Chinese purchases appear to be the bigger driver, with US weather concerns playing a secondary role.

🌽 Corn futures added nearly 6 cents to settle around $4.73/bu, supported by weather worries even as a cooler forecast may cap further gains. 📦 USDA also confirmed fresh flash sales, including soybeans to China and unknown destinations plus corn to Colombia for 2026/2027 delivery.

🌾 Russian wheat export prices jumped 3% as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Black Sea shipping and cut July export forecasts by 25%. ⚓ Added tension in the Strait of Hormuz and a slower Russian harvest pace are compounding uncertainty over global wheat supplies.

📊 US corn conditions slipped slightly to 67% good-to-excellent while soybeans improved to 66%, both still running above their five-year averages. 🌤️ Spring wheat ratings fell to 53% good-to-excellent, but winter wheat harvest progress jumped to 74% complete, ahead of the average pace.

⛽ Gas and diesel prices keep climbing as the US-Iran conflict escalates, with regular gas now averaging $4.00/gallon and diesel at $5.11/gallon. 🛢️ WTI crude is up roughly 20% this month to $83.23/barrel, driven by shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

🚢 Corn export inspections stayed strong at 1.5mmt, up 57% year-over-year, while soybean and wheat shipments both came in below expectations. 🇨🇳 China made up about 22% of last week's export inspections.

🇨🇦 The Trump administration plans a 50% tariff on select Canadian imports starting August 19, covering dairy, alcohol, and cement—even USMCA-exempt goods. 🤝 Canada is downplaying the threat as familiar posturing, while Mexico remains the top buyer of US corn amid the shifting trade landscape.

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🌾⚔️ Black Sea Grain War Escalates — Ukraine's strikes on Russian shipping and Russia's relentless attacks on Ukrainian ports have wiped out roughly a third of Ukraine's Black Sea export capacity. Wheat futures are exploding higher, with a deadly strike on a corn-carrying cargo ship near Odesa adding fuel to the fire. 📈🚢

🇨🇳🌱 China Keeps Buying US Beans — The USDA confirmed fresh flash sales Friday, including 340,000mt to China, 256,634mt to Mexico, and 110,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Chatter suggests more Chinese purchases could drop this week, while US corn sales to China remain a no-show. 🛳️💰

🚜💸 Iowa Farmers Feel the Squeeze — A new report shows Iowa's ag economy shrank 53% from 2022-2024 as corn and soybean production costs surged 37% and 36%. Nearly 1 in 5 Iowa farms are now financially vulnerable, even with strong land values and record cattle profits cushioning the blow. 📉🌽

📊 Funds Flip More Bullish — The latest CoT report shows big money managers snapping up 26k corn, 6k soybean, and 26k SRW wheat contracts last week. Corn's net long hit its highest since early June, while wheat's net short shrank to its smallest since late May. 💹🐂

🔥🛢️ US-Iran Conflict Boils Over — A deadly weekend exchange pushed the US military death toll to 17, with strikes now hitting civilian infrastructure like ports and bridges. Iran has scrapped the interim peace deal and is threatening to choke off oil, gas, and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. ⚓🚨

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🇺🇸🇧🇷 U.S.-Brazil Trade Tensions Escalate
🚨 The Trump administration announced 25% tariffs on many Brazilian imports, effective July 22, citing unfair trade practices. While beef, coffee, and energy products are exempt, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and ethanol are not. A separate investigation could push tariffs on some Brazilian goods as high as 37.5%.
🇧🇷 Brazil is weighing a response but is avoiding tariffs for now. Instead, it is considering measures such as suspending patent protections for pharmaceutical products and agricultural seeds. President Lula has not yet approved the plan, and both countries remain open to negotiations, though the trade dispute could escalate.
🌽 Farm Financial Stress Continues
📉 U.S. farmers are expected to post a sixth straight year of losses in 2027. The American Farm Bureau Federation projects $32 billion in losses across major row crops, with corn, soybean, and wheat margins all expected to remain below breakeven.
💸 Weak crop prices and stubbornly high input costs—made worse by the recent U.S.-Iran conflict—continue to pressure farm profits. The Farm Bureau is urging Congress to provide additional financial assistance and advance long-term policies to strengthen the farm economy.
🌦️ Drought Update
🌧️ Heavy rain improved drought conditions across southern Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southeastern Missouri. However, dry weather allowed drought to expand in northern Missouri and northern Wisconsin.
🔥 The High Plains saw above-normal temperatures, although rain improved conditions in parts of the Dakotas and western Nebraska. This week's intense heat across the Northern Plains is expected to worsen next week's drought outlook.
Current drought coverage:
 🌽 Corn: 19%
 🌱 Soybeans: 18%
 🌾 Winter Wheat: 48%
 🌾 Spring Wheat: 24%
 🐄 Cattle: 44%
📉 Grain Markets Pull Back
🌽 Corn and soybean futures ended lower Thursday as weak export sales and a wetter Corn Belt forecast pressured prices.
 🌽 December 2026 corn: $4.64/bu (-6¢) 
 🫘 November 2026 soybeans: $11.95/bu (-7¢) 
🌾 Wheat futures were mixed after Wednesday's rally. Ongoing attacks in Ukraine's Odesa port and the Sea of Azov continue to raise concerns about grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, which together account for about one-third of global wheat exports.
🚢 Export Sales Disappoint
📉 Corn export sales fell to a marketing-year low last week at 315,000 metric tons (12 million bushels)—well below expectations and sharply lower than recent weeks. Japan was the top buyer.
🫘 Soybean sales totaled 188,300 metric tons (7 million bushels), near the low end of expectations. China was the largest buyer and purchased just over 1 million metric tons of new-crop U.S. soybeans, its biggest weekly purchase since January.
🌾 Wheat sales also disappointed at 235,100 metric tons (9 million bushels), with Japan again leading purchases.

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🌾 Wheat futures rallied hard Wednesday as escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions rattled markets, with Chicago wheat closing near $6.77/bu and KC wheat hitting $7.20/bu—both the highest since mid-May. Ukraine has reportedly lost about a third of its grain export capacity after intensified Russian strikes on Black Sea ports, and strength spilled over into corn and soybeans too. 🚢💥

🏛️ House Republicans rolled out a $95 billion spending package Wednesday, with $60 billion aimed at military spending and $12 billion earmarked for farm assistance to offset war-driven input costs. Critics are slamming the bill for lacking spending cuts, warning it could add $100+ billion to the national debt over the next decade. 💰📜

🌽 Excessive heat is raising red flags for US corn yield potential as 34% of the crop hits the critical pollination stage. A heat dome parked over the Northern Plains is expected to shift south later this week, easing stress up north but keeping things hot across the central and southern Plains. ☀️🌡️

🫘 NOPA's June crush data showed US soybean crushing jumped 2.7% from May to 214.34 million bushels—a record for the month and above all trade estimates. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks sank to an 8-month low of 1.50 billion pounds as strong crush margins keep processors busy. 📊🛢️

⛽ US ethanol production slipped to a 10-week low, down 4.8% week-over-week to 1.04 million barrels per day. Stocks climbed to 24.39 million barrels even as Corn Belt margins held modestly positive, ranging from 10 to 35 cents. 🌽🔋