Grain Markets and Other Stuff

• MORE "Trump Bucks" are Probably Headed to Farm Country

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 More Cash 4 Farmers5:11 USDA Report9:44 Heavy Rains11:00 Russia Wheat Update11:47 Strong Grain ShipmentsTrump Administration Considers Financial Aid Package for Farmers Amid Trade War 🏦🌾The Trump administration is preparing a financial aid package for farmers as reciprocal tariffs are set to be imposed on all U.S. trading partners tomorrow. This move is expected to trigger retaliatory tariffs that could severely impact U.S. agriculture. The new aid package could be larger than the $23 billion bailout from the 2018 trade war with China. In that previous conflict, U.S. agriculture suffered a $27 billion loss in exports. The current situation with tariffs targeting multiple countries could result in a higher cost for the aid package. 🌍💸US Farmers Set to Plant Most Corn Acres in 12 Years 🌽📈The USDA's Prospective Plantings report shows that U.S. farmers intend to plant the highest number of corn acres in 12 years, with an estimated 95.3 million acres—up 5% from last season. Soybean plantings are projected at 83.5 million acres, marking a 4% decline from last year, while wheat plantings are forecast at 45.4 million acres, down nearly 2%. The USDA's quarterly grain stocks report revealed a decrease in U.S. corn stocks, but an increase in soybean and wheat stocks compared to the previous year. 🌾🌱Heavy Rains Expected Across Central US 🌧️🌾Heavy rainfall is predicted to impact areas from eastern Texas through Ohio, with some regions potentially receiving up to 15 inches of rain over the next 10 days. The excessive rainfall could cause flooding and delay the planting of corn and soybeans in affected areas. Farmers in the wettest regions typically aim to plant early corn by today, so the heavy rains could hinder their ability to do so. 🌧️🚜Russia's Wheat Crop Forecast Revised Down 📉🌾Russia's wheat crop forecast for 2025/2026 has been lowered to 80.3 million metric tons, down from the November estimate of 81.5 million metric tons. Dry conditions earlier in the season, particularly for spring wheat, have negatively impacted crop prospects. However, recent improvements in winter wheat conditions and expected rain could provide some relief to the crop. 🌧️🌾US Corn Shipments Strong, Soybean Shipments Surge 📦🌽U.S. corn shipments exceeded expectations last week, with 1.6 million metric tons (64 million bushels) inspected for export. This represents a 5% increase compared to the previous week and a 9.7% rise from the same week last year. Soybean shipments also surpassed expectations at 793,250 metric tons (29 million bushels), up 54% from the same week last year. Wheat shipments, though down from the previous week, were still close to expectations. 📦🌾

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• How Reliable Are These USDA Acreage Numbers??

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Acreage Report Reliability3:32 Wheat Collapse7:44 China Grain News9:24 China Cash Injection10:19 The Funds11:09 Trump/Canada TalksUSDA Report to Release Key Data on Plantings and Grain StocksThe USDA will release its highly anticipated Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks report today. Traders expect to see a significant increase in U.S. corn plantings compared to last year, while a notable decline in soybean plantings is anticipated. U.S. corn stocks as of March 1st are expected to be down 2.4% from the same time last year, while soybean stocks are expected to be up by 3%. Wheat stocks are forecasted to rise by 11.6%.Chicago Wheat Futures Drop to 8-Month LowWheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped to their lowest level in nearly eight months on Friday, with the May25 contract losing almost 4 cents, closing near $5.28 per bushel. Prices have been pressured by ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, as well as ample global supplies. Weak export demand and beneficial rainfall across the U.S. Plains also contributed to the market's decline. Traders are positioning ahead of today's USDA reports.China’s Focus on Agricultural Self-SufficiencyChina is investing heavily in improving agricultural land to strengthen national food security. The nation aims to transform 200 million acres into high-standard farmland by 2030, utilizing technology to improve soil quality, crop management, and disaster resilience. By 2035, all basic farmland is expected to meet high-standard criteria. China is prioritizing food self-sufficiency and diversifying its agricultural supply chains amidst rising geopolitical tensions.China Boosts Economy with Investment in State BanksChina has invested $69 billion into four state-owned banks to bolster their financial stability and support economic growth. The government’s move will help these banks expand, strengthen their capital reserves, and invest in emerging industries. This investment also aims to address pressure from narrowing profit margins due to interest rate cuts.Funds Reduce Corn Market ExposureCFTC data shows that "The Funds" reduced their net-long position in the corn market last week, with large money managers selling 31k corn contracts. Since mid-February, the funds have slashed their net-long position by 286k contracts. The funds were also net sellers of soybean and SRW wheat contracts.President Trump and Canadian PM Discuss Tariffs and Trade FrameworkPresident Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held a productive phone call on Friday, though Canada remains set to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. this week in response to Trump's planned reciprocal tariffs. Carney criticized the tariff threats as a betrayal of the USMCA agreement. Going forward, the two leaders plan to negotiate a new economic and security framework after Canada’s upcoming election.

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• Soybeans Rally on TikTok News. Wait...What??

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.President Trump Considering Lowering Tariffs on China for TikTok Agreement 🇨🇳📉President Trump is reportedly considering reducing tariffs on Chinese imports as part of efforts to secure a deal with TikTok's parent company, ByteDance. This comes after President Biden's law requiring ByteDance to sell TikTok's U.S. operations by January 19. Trump extended the deadline to April 5 to allow more time for negotiations. If no deal is reached by then, Trump is open to further extensions. The move is being considered amid talks with four potential buyers. Additionally, Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs next week. Soybean futures rallied yesterday, possibly influenced by these developments and concerns about low U.S. soybean acreage. 🌱💼USDA Report to Release Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grain Stocks 📊🌾The USDA will release its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday, which traders are closely watching. Expectations include a significant rise in U.S. corn plantings compared to last year, while soybean acreage is anticipated to decline. Corn stocks as of March 1st are expected to be down 2.4% from last year, while soybean stocks are expected to rise by 3%, and wheat stocks are forecasted to increase by 11.6%. These reports will provide key insights into market trends. 📉📈President Trump Encourages Collaboration on U.S. Biofuels Policy 🚗🌱President Trump has directed the U.S. fuel and oil industries to work together on shaping future biofuels policy. Two meetings have taken place, with discussions focusing on biofuel blending requirements, small refiner exemptions, and biofuel tax policies. The industry also discussed the 45Z tax credit and the potential for increasing the renewable diesel and biodiesel mandate. The new mandate range could be between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons, compared to the current 3.35 billion gallons. ⚡🚗USDA Weekly Drought Monitor: Corn Belt Sees Improvement 🌧️🌽The USDA's latest drought monitor showed improvements in large portions of the Corn Belt, with snow and rainfall benefiting areas like Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois. However, conditions worsened in Missouri, and dry weather in South Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma has led to deteriorating drought conditions in those areas. Drought is impacting 44% of U.S. corn, 36% of soybeans, and 38% of winter wheat. 🌧️📊US Corn Export Sales Decline 📉US corn export sales were reported at 1 million metric tons (41 million bushels) last week, down 31% from the previous week but in line with the 4-week average. The largest buyer was Japan. Soybean sales were below expectations at 338,500 metric tons (12 million bushels), down 4% from the prior week and 28% from the 4-week average. Wheat sales also came in lower than expected at 100,300 metric tons (4 million bushels), down 65% from the previous week. 🌍📉

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• Corn Acreage "Whisper Number" - 96 Million??

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Acreage "Whisper Number"3:09 Auto Tariffs5:04 Black Sea Exports8:02 Nutrien Fertilizer Thoughts8:59 Why Are Ethanol Stocks So High?10:16 JBS NewsUS Corn Futures Fall Amid Increased Acreage Expectations-U.S. corn futures dropped on Wednesday, with the May25 contract falling nearly 7 cents to $4.51 per bushel. Traders are anticipating a significant rise in corn acreage this year, with analysts estimating 94.4 million acres, up 4.2% from last year. Soybean futures were mostly unchanged, with expectations for acreage totaling 83.8 million, a decrease of 3.8% from last season. Wheat futures were under pressure due to potential developments surrounding the Black Sea ceasefire agreement.President Trump to Impose 25% Tariff on Imported Vehicles-President Trump announced that a 25% tariff will be imposed on all imported vehicles starting April 2, 2025. This permanent tariff is expected to significantly raise vehicle costs, potentially adding up to $12,000 to certain models. The move comes despite initial opposition from U.S. automakers who warned that such tariffs would harm their businesses. This new tariff will likely affect Mexico, the largest exporter of automobiles to the U.S., and Japan, the second largest exporter. Both countries are also major buyers of U.S. corn.Russian and Ukrainian Agricultural Exports Near Pre-War Levels-Despite ongoing conflicts, Russian and Ukrainian agricultural exports are almost back to pre-war levels. Ukraine's Black Sea grain shipments are performing near pre-war figures, and Russia continues to dominate the global wheat market. If a ceasefire agreement is reached, it is expected to reduce shipping costs by lowering war-related insurance premiums, making trade in the region more efficient.Nutrien Believes Black Sea Ceasefire Won't Significantly Impact Global Supplies-Nutrien, a Canadian fertilizer company, believes the proposed Black Sea ceasefire deal will have minimal impact on global fertilizer or grain supplies this year. Russian fertilizer exports are operating near full capacity, and Ukraine continues strong exports through alternative routes.US Ethanol Production Declines-U.S. ethanol production saw a decline last week, with weekly output of 1.05 million barrels per day down 4.7% from the previous week and slightly lower than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose by 2.9% from the previous week and 4.8% year-over-year, staying at levels comparable to early COVID times.JBS Surpasses Earnings Expectations-JBS, the world's largest meatpacker, reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, more than double the prior year. Strong demand for chicken and pork boosted earnings as consumers turned to more affordable meat options. However, JBS faces challenges due to historically low U.S. cattle supplies, which have driven beef prices to all-time highs.

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  12:03
• Why is Brazil (probably) Buying US Corn??

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Is Brazil Buying US Corn?3:15 Corn Futures Decline7:46 Black Sea News8:51 US Will Help Russia Ship Grain9:59 Black Sea Fertilizer ImpactRising Corn Prices in Brazil 🌽💰Corn prices in Brazil have surged, driven by low stock levels and increased demand from the ethanol and livestock industries. Some areas have seen price increases of over 23% year-over-year. This price spike is expected to contribute to inflationary pressures, with agricultural consulting group Datagro estimating that food inflation could rise by 1% in the next six months. Over the past year, prices for poultry, beef, and pork have risen sharply—by 11%, 21%, and 20%, respectively. There have also been rumors about small U.S. corn exports to Brazil, a market that occasionally imports limited quantities of U.S. corn. 🌽📈U.S. Corn Futures Decline 📉U.S. corn futures fell on Tuesday, with the May25 contract dropping nearly 7 cents to settle near $4.58 per bushel. This decline was attributed to strong planting progress in the South, particularly in Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Traders are also positioning ahead of the USDA's upcoming grain stocks and prospective planting reports, with expectations for a 94.4 million-acre U.S. corn planting estimate for 2025. 🌾🌎Russia and Ukraine Agree to Black Sea Deal ⚖️Russia and Ukraine have reached a significant agreement allowing safe passage in the Black Sea and halting attacks on each other’s energy facilities. The U.S. facilitated the deal, which also includes assistance for Russia in expanding its grain and fertilizer exports. The U.S. will help Russia by reducing shipping insurance costs, improving market access, and easing port and payment restrictions. However, the deal is contingent on the EU lifting certain sanctions on Russia. Ukraine has expressed opposition to easing sanctions. ⚓🌍CF Industries Stock Decline 📉CF Industries Holdings saw its stock drop more than 4% on Tuesday, hitting its lowest level in nearly eight months. The decline followed the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which raised the likelihood of reduced trade sanctions on Russia. This is expected to increase fertilizer supplies from the region, lower shipping costs, and reduce market volatility, benefiting Russia’s fertilizer exports. 📉💡

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