Grain Markets and Other Stuff

• How Many Unshipped US Corn and Soybean Bushels are at Risk?? (Tariffs)

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Temporary Tariff Exemption for Canadian and Mexican Auto Imports 🚗📈On Wednesday, President Trump announced a one-month exemption from the 25% tariffs on automotive imports from Canada and Mexico. The pause, which responds to requests from automakers, has boosted stock markets. The exemption applies to manufacturers under the USMCA trade agreement. Despite this, Trump plans to continue using tariffs as leverage to address fentanyl smuggling concerns. Last year, automotive trade between the US, Canada, and Mexico totaled $345 billion, with a surplus for the US with Canada and a deficit with Mexico. 🇨🇦🇲🇽Potential Agricultural Product Exemptions from Tariffs 🌾💡Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins hinted at possible relief for agricultural sectors, suggesting that potash and fertilizer could be exempt from the recent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This comes after Trump’s 25% tariffs on both countries and an additional 10% on China. Retaliatory tariffs have already been implemented by Canada and China, with Mexico expected to follow suit soon. 🌱Risk of Export Cancellations Due to Tariffs 📉US farmers are facing the risk of significant export cancellations due to rising tariffs and trade uncertainty. About 12 million tons of US crops, particularly corn and soybeans, could be at risk. Mexico, the largest importer of US corn, still has 7.8 million tons of corn unshipped. Additionally, soybean sales to China may be deferred or canceled, although the impact on soybeans is expected to be smaller. 🌽🌱President Trump Urges Farmers to Remain Patient Amid Tariff Challenges 💼🌾In his address to Congress, President Trump urged farmers to stay patient as tariffs take a toll on the agricultural industry. Despite some early gains in corn and soybean markets, retaliatory tariffs have caused significant losses. However, the initial portion of the $30 billion in federal farm aid is set to be distributed soon, offering some relief. 💸Russia's Wheat Crop in Better Condition than Expected 🌾❄️Russia's wheat crop is reported to be in better condition than initially expected, following a mild winter with warmer temperatures and reduced snowfall. In December, over 37% of Russia's winter crops were in poor condition, but the crop’s improved status has led to fewer production and export concerns. 🌾US Dollar Drops Amid Tariff Concerns 💵📉The US dollar dropped to a three-month low on Wednesday, following the imposition of tariffs on Mexico and Canada. This decline, which saw a 1% fall in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, signals growing concerns over a potential global trade war and its effect on economic growth. The dollar’s status as a safe-haven currency is also under scrutiny due to shifting global political landscapes. 🌍US Ethanol Stocks Near Record Levels 📊Ethanol stocks in the US remain near historically high levels, with a slight decrease from the previous week but still up 4.8% compared to last year. Weekly ethanol output increased by 1.1%, with gasoline demand rising 5% for the week, though still lower than last year. Ethanol production continues to play a significant role in the US biofuel industry. ⛽

  --------  

  11:36
• Grains Recover + Lutnick Talks "Scaled Back" Tariffs

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.US Corn and Soybean Futures Drop Amid Trade Tensions 🚜💥Corn and soybean futures plummeted on Tuesday as trade tensions intensified. Corn futures hit their lowest levels of the year, while soybean prices fell below $10 per bushel. The drop was fueled by the US imposing steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, triggering swift retaliations from Ottawa and Beijing. There’s concern that rising trade tensions could push the global economy toward a recession, reducing demand for commodities. Corn prices have dropped 14% since mid-February, compounded by better crop prospects from South America. 📉Potential Tariff Relief for Canada and Mexico 🤝Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has signaled that President Trump might offer tariff relief for Canada and Mexico, provided they comply with the USMCA trade agreement. While a full tariff removal is unlikely, adjustments may be on the table. Both sides are in talks, with a potential deal expected soon. Bipartisan pressure is mounting on Trump to reconsider these tariffs due to their potential impact on consumer prices and the agricultural sector. 🌾Mexico to Announce Retaliatory Tariffs on Sunday 🇲🇽Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has confirmed that Mexico will impose retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican imports. The delay in the announcement reflects Mexico's efforts to avoid a trade war. Mexico's retaliatory measures are expected to hurt U.S. consumers and businesses, particularly since 80% of Mexico's exports go to the U.S., which accounted for over $800 billion in trade last year. 🌎US Economic Activity Could Plunge Due to Trade War 📉The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has revised its first-quarter growth forecast down to a 2.8% decline, a sharp shift from a previous estimate of 2.3% growth. This marks a drastic change from the 4% growth forecast just one month ago. These gloomy projections reflect growing concerns over the economic impact of the escalating trade war, and the US stock market has taken a hit, erasing post-inauguration gains. 📉US Farmer Sentiment Rises Despite Trade War Concerns 🌾💡US farmer sentiment increased in February, with Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer Index rising to 152. This boost was driven by higher crop and livestock prices and anticipation of federal farm aid payments. Despite optimism about the future, trade policy remains a major concern, with nearly half of farmers believing a trade war is likely or very likely. 🌱USDA Reports Flash Sales of Wheat and Soybean Oil 🌾💰US exporters secured two flash sales on Tuesday: 130,000mt (5 million bushels) of white wheat to South Korea for the 2024/2025 marketing year, and 20,000mt of soybean oil to unknown destinations. These sales reflect continued demand for US agricultural products despite the ongoing trade tensions. 📦

  --------  

  14:21
• Grain Market Bloodbath: China Tariffs US Soybeans

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Trump Confirms Tariffs1:28 China Tariffs US Soybean Imports4:51 US Ag Import Tariffs?8:31 Brazil / Argentina Update9:47 India Wheat Problems11:07 Grain Shipments12:11 Flash SaleTariffs Take Effect Today: Canada, Mexico, and China Impacted 🌎Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are now in place, with President Trump announcing a 25% tariff on both countries. These tariffs, along with a 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, have sparked concerns, sending the stock market down. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8%, Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and Dow Jones slid 1.5%. The grain markets also saw selling pressure in response. 📉China Announces Tariffs on US Agricultural Products 🌾China has imposed 10-15% tariffs on a range of US agricultural products, including chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, and dairy. The new tariffs will take effect on March 10th, further escalating trade tensions. Canada has also announced retaliatory tariffs, while Mexico has signaled patience without formal retaliation yet. 🐄🌽Trump's Agricultural Tariffs Starting April 2nd 🍅President Trump plans to implement tariffs on agricultural imports starting April 2nd as part of reciprocal tariffs targeting US trading partners. These tariffs could impact fruits, vegetables, and nuts, as well as used cooking oil from China for biofuel production. The USDA has forecasted a record agricultural trade deficit of $49 billion for the year. 🍋Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Ahead of Last Year’s Pace 🇧🇷Brazil's soybean harvest is slightly ahead of last year, with 50% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday. However, concerns persist in states like Rio Grande do Sul, where hot and dry conditions are causing crop losses. AgRural has reduced its soybean outlook for the season to 168.2mmt, down from 171mmt. 🌾India Seeks Relief on Wheat Import Tax 🇮🇳India’s wheat millers are pushing for the removal or reduction of a 40% import tax as the nation’s stockpiles have fallen to the lowest levels in almost 16 years. Reduced domestic production and the government’s release of reserves have contributed to the shortage, with hot and dry weather forecasts adding further concerns about this season’s crop. 🌾🔥US Corn Shipments Strong Despite Tariff Concerns 🌽US corn shipments were near the upper end of expectations last week, with 1.4mmt (53mil bushels) inspected for export. Soybean shipments were lower than expected, while wheat shipments showed a slight increase. Despite ongoing tariff threats, Mexico continues to be a top buyer of US corn this season. 🚢Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico 💥US exporters sold 114,000mt (4mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Mexico remains one of the top buyers of US corn, even amidst the threat of tariffs.

  --------  

  13:15
• China Targets US Ag Imports + Rollins Confirms Direct Payments

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.China's Potential Retaliation Against US Agricultural Imports 🌾China is reportedly considering targeting US agricultural imports, including soybeans, in response to President Trump’s 10% tariff threat. China has been the largest buyer of US soybeans, accounting for 47% of US export commitments. With most of this year's sales already shipped, unshipped sales and new crop sales could be at risk. 📉$30 Billion in Federal Farm Assistance Coming Soon 💰The USDA is preparing to release the first portion of the $30 billion in farm assistance, with the first $10 billion expected in the coming weeks. This support is designed to help offset poor markets and provide disaster relief. Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized the urgency of delivering these funds efficiently, with a hard deadline of March 21st for payments. ⏳Improved Crop Insurance for Corn 🌽, Higher Risk for Soybeans 🌱The USDA's crop insurance for 2025 offers improved coverage for corn, with a spring price of $4.70 per bushel, up 4 cents from last year. Soybean coverage is more at risk, with a projected price drop to $10.54, down $1.01. Corn’s stronger coverage could lead to a significant increase in corn planting this season. 📊Funds Trim Net-Long Position in Corn 🛑CFTC data shows that large money managers reduced their net-long position in the corn market by 26k contracts last week. This selling trend is reflected in soybean and wheat markets as well, signaling a possible shift in market sentiment. The funds are now estimated to hold a net-long position of only 250-260k contracts in corn. 💹China Tightens Grain Regulations 🇨🇳China plans to strengthen regulations around grain purchases and storage to prevent volatility and ensure price stability. This move is aimed at further bolstering stockpiles of both corn and wheat, possibly through increased imports or purchases of domestic supplies. 📉Russian Attack on Odesa Port ⚔️A Russian missile strike on the Black Sea port of Odesa damaged a civilian vessel and port infrastructure, injuring workers. This follows President Trump’s recent criticisms of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. The attack occurred just before the expected signing of a minerals agreement, which was ultimately not finalized. 🔥Flash Sale of Soybean Oil 🛒US exporters sold 20,000mt of soybean oil for delivery in 2024/2025, marking the first flash sale of soybean oil for 2025. This signals strong export interest in US soybean oil amidst global market uncertainty. 🛢️

  --------  

  12:58
• 94 Million Acres of Corn: Fair or Foul??

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 94mil Corn Acres?7:34 New Tariff Update9:34 Southwest Airlines Ditches SAF Plans13:30 Drought Update16:07 Export SalesUSDA Projects Record Corn Crop 🌽The USDA anticipates a significant increase in corn acreage this season, with farmers expected to plant 94 million acres, up 3.8% from last year. Corn’s favorable prices are a key driver of this increase, and the total corn production is projected to hit a record 15.6 billion bushels. However, soybean acreage is expected to decline by 3.6%, with 84 million acres planted, resulting in the fourth-largest soybean crop on record at 4.4 billion bushels. Wheat acreage is expected to rise by 2%, reaching 47 million acres. 📊Trump's Tariff Plan Escalates 💥President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on China and confirmed that the previously planned 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will go into effect on March 4. These tariffs are aimed at addressing trade imbalances and the flow of fentanyl into the US. While the tariffs are set to hit a range of imports, including steel, it’s still unclear whether corn and soybeans will be directly impacted by retaliatory measures from Canada or Mexico. 🛑🌏Southwest Airlines Scales Back on SAF 🌱✈️Southwest Airlines is cutting back its commitment to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The airline laid off employees and terminated its newly-formed team focused on cleaner fuels. SAF, which is derived from feedstocks like corn husks, has become an important part of efforts to reduce climate pollution, but it represents less than 0.1% of Southwest's total jet fuel use. The airline had previously committed to using 10% SAF by 2030, but its decision signals challenges in reaching that goal. 🚫🌍Drought Conditions Worsen Across US 🌞The USDA's weekly drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt, with 40% of the region affected by drought. In particular, the percentage of US corn areas impacted by drought rose by 11%, while soybean areas saw a 10% increase in drought conditions. The High Plains also experienced drought expansion, notably in southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. 🌾💧Corn Export Sales Fall Short 📉US corn export sales were disappointing last week, coming in at 794,700mt (31 million bushels), down 45% from the previous week. This is the lowest sales number in weeks, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Similarly, wheat export sales were also below expectations, while soybean sales saw a slight uptick. These weak sales could impact the overall US agricultural market in the coming weeks. 📦🚫

  --------  

  20:36

More News podcasts

Trending News podcasts

About Grain Markets and Other Stuff