Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Intro0:47 Soy Rally3:05 Drought / Overnight Lows10:30 Export Sales13:07 Fertilizer Update15:52 SAF Plant18:35 S&P 500 Record🎥 Soybeans Surge, Droughts Ease, and Fertilizer Wars Begin! 🌱💥📈🔥 BIG moves in the grain markets this week! Here's what you need to know:🌾 Soybean Rally 🚀The Nov25 soybean contract jumped from $10.07 to around $10.40! Much of the rally is thanks to soaring soybean oil futures, which hit their best levels since Sept '23. 📊 Optimism around Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) is keeping the bulls active. 🌱 Corn and soybean oil futures are sharply higher too.🌧️ Drought Monitor Update 🌎Last week’s rains brought some relief! ⛈️💧 Iowa, Illinois & Missouri received more than 200% of normal rainfall!✔️ Drought conditions improved in:Northern IllinoisNortheast MissouriSouthern IndianaParts of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota & NebraskaCorn: 9% in droughtSoybeans: 7%Winter wheat: 30%Spring wheat: 36%Cattle country: 15% 🐄📉 Disappointing Export SalesUS export sales stumbled last week:❌ Corn: Just 97,600 mt—a marketing year low 😬❌ Soybeans: 271,900 mt—weak numbers 😕✅ Wheat: 494,400 mt—down from last week but better than the 4-week average🇷🇺 Russia Targets Fertilizer Expansion 🌍Russia wants to grow its global fertilizer share from 20% to 25% by 2030, focusing on BRICS nations 🌐⛔️ EU tariffs are pushing Russian supply elsewhere🧪 BRICS = nearly half of global fertilizer demand✈️ Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Takes Off 🛫The world’s first SAF plant is expected to start in Georgia by late Sept💰 $200M LanzaJet facility will begin using Brazilian sugarcane ethanol (not 45Z eligible)🇺🇸 US ethanol will be used later—once it meets the 50% GHG reduction threshold🛢️ LanzaJet is pushing to lower the threshold to 30% for more flexibility📈 Stock Market Soars 📊The S&P 500 hit a record high!🛍️ Strong retail sales📉 Declining jobless claims💵 Stablecoin bill passed💲 US dollar on fire 🔥🏦 Rate cuts still expected despite Powell uncertainty💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE!🔔 Stay updated on everything from beans to the big board!
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23:00
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23:00
Trump & Coca-Cola: How Much Corn is Used for High-Fructose Corn Syrup??
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Trump and Coke3:17 Soybean Rally4:41 US Weather8:23 US/China Tensions Ease9:37 Ethanol Production10:28 Trump and Powell📢 BIG Changes Coming to Coca-Cola? Trump Says So! 🥤🇺🇸According to President Trump, Coca-Cola may soon ditch high-fructose corn syrup and switch to real cane sugar in U.S. products! 🌽❌➡️🍬 Trump praised the move in a post on Truth Social, tying it to his broader push to reduce processed ingredients in the American food supply. But... Coke hasn’t confirmed anything yet. 🤔🌎 Coke already uses cane sugar in places like Mexico and the UK, so could the U.S. be next?💡 Fun fact: About 410 million bushels of U.S. corn went to HFCS in 2023—that's 2.8% of total corn demand! 🌱 MARKET MOVERS 💰📈 Soybeans surged nearly 19 cents on Wednesday amid fresh export demand speculation—possibly China!🌽 Corn futures also rose 4 cents on renewed optimism and trade progress with Indonesia.🌦️ WET WEATHER ALERT!CropProphet sees 142% of normal rainfall across the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, but things may dry out during the 8–14 day window 🌧️➡️☀️.⚠️ Watch for hot and humid nights in the eastern Corn Belt—could be a problem!🕊️ TRUMP SOFTENS ON CHINA?Trump is now seeking short-term deals with China and a possible meeting with President Xi. The pivot has sparked internal debate, especially after easing chip restrictions on Nvidia 💻🧠.🍺 ETHANOL WATCH🛢️ Weekly U.S. ethanol production ticked up to 1.09M barrels/day, but still trails last year. Stocks fell for a third straight week. Margins? Still strong 💪🏛️ TRUMP VS. POWELL?Despite rumors, Trump says he won’t fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell—unless there’s fraud. Still, he's calling for a massive 3-point rate cut and slammed the Fed’s pricey HQ renovation. 💸📉
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12:24
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12:24
Joe's Stupid Theory About Corn Prices and Inflation
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Stupid Theory4:47 Corn Belt Rain7:48 Soybean Crush9:13 Indonesia Trade Deal10:53 Brazil Tariffs and Beef Imports🔥 Inflation Rises, Tariffs Bite, and Weather Heats Up! 🌽💰🌦️Hey everyone! In today’s update, we’re tracking the latest market movers—from soaring inflation to shifting weather and big-time trade news. Let’s dive in! 👇📈 🔥 Inflation Hits a 5-Month HighConsumer prices rose 0.3% in June—marking the biggest jump since February. Annual inflation ticked up to 2.7% 📊. Tariff-sensitive goods like clothing and appliances saw the sharpest increases, suggesting tariffs may be fueling price pressures. Trump wasted no time calling for Fed rate cuts… again. 🌦️ 🌽 Rain Watch: Big Totals IncomingRain is moving through parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas this morning, with 1–2" expected over much of the Corn Belt in the next 5 days. Some areas could top 3" over the 10-day! Forecasts are calling for near-normal temps this week, but the extended outlook turns hot! 🔥🫘 NOPA Crush Record!June soybean crush came in at 185.71 million bushels—a record for the month 📉🛢️. Oil stocks fell to their lowest June level since 2004, dropping below trade estimates. 🤝 Indonesia Strikes a Deal 🇮🇩Trump finalized a tariff deal with Indonesia: 🇺🇸 ag exports head in tariff-free, while 🇮🇩 exports face a 19% duty. Indonesia will buy $4.5B in US ag goods, including wheat, soybeans, soymeal, and dairy 🧀. See the Top 10 wheat & meal importer charts to understand the impact 📈🌾.🥩 Beef Battles: Brazil Tariff IncomingStarting August 1, Brazilian beef faces a 50% US tariff 🐄💥. Brazilian meatpackers are already scaling back cattle buying. With the US cattle herd at a 70-year low, this could mean tighter beef supplies ahead. Brazil sent $1.4B in beef to the US last year—nearly a quarter of our imports.
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13:18
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13:18
Corn Reverses to the Upside: Possible Targets??
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Reversal2:31 Corn/Soybean Ratings are Strong6:06 More Corn Belt Rain8:57 Brazil Corn Update10:30 Grain Shipments11:27 Bitcoin🌽 Corn Pops Higher!Corn futures posted an upside reversal on Monday! 📈 The Dec25 contract hit new life-of-contract lows before rallying nearly 6 cents. Short covering and bargain buying helped lift the market—but gains were limited by favorable weather and expectations for a record-large crop. Traders remain cautious as President Trump steps up tariff threats.🌱 Crop Conditions Remain Strong 💪✅ US corn: 74% good-to-excellent—best for the week since 2016!✅ US soybeans: 70% good-to-excellent—also second best in a decade!Only 5% of each crop is rated poor to very poor. That’s bullish for yield potential!🌾 Wheat Update 🚜🌱 Spring wheat: 54% good-to-excellent (up from 50% last week).🧊 Winter wheat harvest: 63% complete, still running slightly behind average and much slower than last year.🌧️ Rain Returns + Heat on Deck ☀️The Corn Belt is wet again this week with widespread rainfall expected in the 5-day and 5-10 day windows. 🌦️⚠️ But look out! CropProphet says the 8–14 day outlook shows temps averaging +4.3°F above normal.🔥 Heat could return as a key market factor.🇧🇷 Brazil’s Harvest Lagging 🐢Brazil’s second-crop corn harvest is just 40% complete—way behind last year’s 74% pace. Despite delays, both USDA and Conab still forecast a record-large 132mmt crop.📉 Largest weekly harvest gain so far this season—but still playing catch-up.🚢 Exports Sluggish 📦👀 Corn: 1.3mmt inspected last week (down 18% WoW).🥜 Soybeans: Weak at just 147,045mt (down 63% WoW).🌾 Wheat: Better, near top end of expectations at 439,533mt.₿ Bitcoin Blasts Higher! 🚀Bitcoin surged 3.4% on Monday to hit a new all-time high of $123,205 💰 before cooling off.🧠 "Crypto Week" is here—Congress debates 3 major crypto bills.💸 $2.7B flowed into Bitcoin ETFs last week—fifth-best inflow on record.📈 Year-to-date: +30%. After doubling in 2024, BTC is still running hot.👇 Hit that like button, leave a comment with your market thoughts, and don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates! 🔔#Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Bitcoin #GrainMarkets #Crypto #Weather #Farming #Commodities #Agriculture 🌽🧑🌾📊
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14:04
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14:04
Too Much Rain in July?? Is That Even Possible?? (Corn Crop)
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Too Much Rain??4:03 USDA Report8:15 Tariff News9:54 The Funds10:45 Flash Sale🎯 WEEKEND GRAIN WRAP-UP: Big Rains, Lower Stocks & New Tariffs! 🌽☔📉🔥 What a weekend! Here’s what’s moving the markets:🌧️ Weather WatchSubstantial rainfall soaked much of the US Corn Belt this weekend!💦 Best totals: Iowa, Illinois, northeast Missouri & southern Wisconsin🌦️ Scattered rains: Eastern Corn Belt📅 Forecast: More rain over the next 5–10 days🌡️ Temps: Near-normal now, but above-normal coming in the 8–14 day outlook📉 USDA Report RecapCorn futures fell Friday… despite a friendly USDA update:📦 Ending stocks cut to 1.34B bu—lowest in 4 years!🚢 Record export forecast at 2.75B bu🌽 2025/26 corn production trimmed to 15.7B bu (still record high)🌱 Soybean crop adjusted to 4.34B bu📏 Yields? Still unchanged... but the market might be pricing in much higher yields already 🤔🇺🇸 Tariff TroublePresident Trump is back with more tariffs:📆 Starting August 1: 30% tariff on goods from Mexico & EU⚙️ Possible exemptions for companies that move manufacturing to the US⚠️ Retaliation? Trump says any response tariffs will be added on top🌍 EU & Mexico = 1/3 of total US imports🇲🇽 Mexico = #1 buyer of US corn🇪🇺 The EU is the #2 buyer of US soybeans and #5 of US corn💰 Money Flow: Fund Activity🟢 Corn: Funds net buyers of 10k contracts (1st time in 6 weeks!)🔴 Soybeans: Net sellers of 7k🟢 SRW Wheat: Net buyers of 6k📊 Check out the Fund Tracker charts below!🫘 Flash Sale Alert!🇲🇽 Mexico booked 219,900mt (8M bu) of new crop soybeans for 2025/26📈 New crop soybean sales are already 4% ahead of USDA’s target!👇 Hit LIKE if you enjoy these updates, and don’t forget to SUBSCRIBE for more grain market insights!💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are we underestimating this corn yield?
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