Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌎 Geopolitics & OilThe U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro could significantly complicate **China’s oil and investment ties with Venezuela.For years, China has been Venezuela’s largest oil buyer and creditor. While Venezuelan crude made up just about 4% of China’s total oil imports last year, it has played an important role in diversifying China’s energy supply.President Trump’s push to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry is expected to weaken China’s influence in the region, introduce financial risks for Chinese banks, and force Beijing to reassess its broader Latin America strategy.Through 2015, China extended more than $60 billion in oil-backed loans to Venezuela for infrastructure and energy projects. Roughly 20% of those loans are believed to be unpaid—raising major questions about repayment now that Maduro is out of power.We’ve seen similar U.S. responses before when foreign powers got “too close to home,” including:Cuba / Soviet Union (1962)Grenada / Soviet Union (1983)Panama / Noriega (1989)🚢 Export InspectionsUSDA reported stronger soybean inspections last week.Soybeans: 980,518 mtUp from the prior weekDown vs. last yearChina accounted for roughly 40%Corn: 1.2 mmtLower vs. last weekStrongly higher vs. last yearWheat: 183,305 mtBelow expectationsSharply lower week-over-week and year-over-yearMarketing-year-to-date shipments:Soybeans: sharply behind last yearCorn: well aheadWheat: modestly higher📊 Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)USDA released its final catch-up export sales report for the week ending December 25.Soybeans: Solid weekly sales, with China the top buyerCorn: Toward the low end of expectations, led by MexicoWheat: Below expectations, with Colombia the top destination🌱 Brazil Crop UpdateStoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly to a record 177.6 mmt, citing excellent December growing conditions and strong yields in Mato Grosso.Conab: 177.6 mmtUSDA: 175 mmtBased on current USDA estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop is more than 50% larger than the U.S. crop this season.Weather outlook from World Weather suggests generally favorable conditions, though parts of southern Argentina will need closer monitoring due to expected drying.💰 Fund PositioningThe CFTC is now fully caught up on Commitment of Traders data.Funds continued selling corn and soybeansSoybean fund length has dropped sharply since mid-NovemberSmall net buying was seen in SRW wheat🥇 Metals & MacroGold and silver surged amid rising geopolitical tensions.Prices jumped following Maduro’s removal and comments from President Trump that the U.S. will now control Venezuela, including access to its oil reserves. Tensions also escalated after Trump reiterated his interest in Greenland, prompting sharp pushback from Denmark, which warned such a move would effectively end NATO.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Geopolitics & EnergyThe US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife over the weekend. Both have been indicted on multiple charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses. Maduro is now being held in a federal prison in New York and is expected to make his first court appearance today in Manhattan.The unprecedented military intervention drew condemnation from Russia and China, while Argentina expressed support. President Trump said the move was necessary to address drug trafficking and what he described as “stolen oil,” adding that the US will be strongly involved in Venezuela’s oil industry going forward.Crude oil futures fell on last night’s open but are trading near unchanged this morning. The bigger selloff was in natural gas, which is down more than 2.5% early today. Venezuela holds the largest crude oil reserves in the world, though accessing them will take years and massive capital investment. The country also has large natural gas reserves, which could be easier to develop.🚜 Farm Aid UpdateUSDA announced payment rates under the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program on New Year’s Eve. The agency will distribute $12 billion total, with $11 billion allocated to one-time payments for row crops and $1 billion directed to specialty crops and sugar.Payment rates:Corn: $44.36 per acreSoybeans: $30.88 per acreWheat: $39.35 per acrePayments are based on 2025 planted acres. Second crop acres are eligible, while prevent plant acres are excluded. Farmers are expected to receive payments by the end of February. See graphics below. Click HERE and HERE for USDA links.🌱 Grain Markets & WeatherSoybean futures fell on Friday, with the Mar26 contract down nearly 10 cents before recovering. China’s purchase program now appears to be a mostly “known” factor for the current marketing year, with expectations that China will reach the 12mmt US purchase target over the next couple of months.Brazil’s forecast turns slightly drier early this week, while southern Argentina remains dry for at least another week. 🐄 LivestockMexico reported new cases of New World screwworm last week, including a goat in central Mexico and a calf in Tamaulipas near the US border. No additional animals tested positive at either site.The news sent live and feeder cattle futures sharply higher. The US–Mexico border is expected to remain closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports for the foreseeable future. Since November 2024, authorities have recorded over 13,000 cases, with several hundred currently active. ⛽ EthanolUS ethanol production rose to a weekly high last week at 1.12 million barrels per day. Output was higher week-over-week and year-over-year. Ethanol stocks increased slightly but remain below last year’s levels.According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain positive across the Corn Belt, ranging from roughly 5 to 25 cents per gallon. 🚢 Export SalesUSDA released another delayed export sales report:Soybean sales missed expectations and were sharply lower week-over-week, with China accounting for most of the totalCorn sales exceeded expectations, led by MexicoWheat sales came in near the low end of expectations

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌏 China Grain & Soybean Strategy UpdateChina is pushing to reduce its reliance on grain and soybean imports in the name of food security. State media says Beijing plans to boost domestic grain and oilseed production through better seed quality, upgraded machinery, and more advanced farming practices. Trade tensions with the U.S. have accelerated this shift toward ag self-sufficiency. China also plans to support farm incomes, protect migrant worker employment, and extend rural land-use contracts by an additional 30 years after 2027.China’s grain production hit a record high this year, rising 1.2% to 714.9mmt. Corn and wheat self-sufficiency looks achievable, but soybeans remain a much tougher challenge. 📉 Grain & Oilseed Market RecapSoybean futures edged lower Tuesday, with the Mar26 contract slipping about a penny to settle near $10.62. This came despite China returning to the U.S. market with a soybean flash sale, as expectations for a record Brazilian crop continued to pressure prices. Corn futures moved lower on South American crop optimism, while wheat futures also finished lower amid hopes for progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and expectations for a record Argentine wheat harvest. 🌧️ South American Weather UpdateBrazilian weather continues to support ideas of a large soybean crop. According to CropProphet data, Brazilian soybean areas received 106% of normal rainfall over the last 14 days (production-weighted). Forecasts remain favorable, with near-normal rainfall expected in both the 1–7 and 8–14 day periods, though amounts will vary.Argentina is a different story, with very little rain expected over the next week. Euro model guidance suggests rainfall returns to normal in the 8–14 day window, with rains likely returning to corn and soybean areas around Tuesday next week. Some southern regions may wait longer.🌾 Argentina Crop UpdateArgentina’s wheat crop is now projected at a record 27.8mmt, up from 27.1mmt previously, thanks to favorable weather and strong yields. About 93% of the wheat crop has been harvested. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange also reports soybean planting at 82% and corn planting at 84%. Hot and dry conditions ahead could still pose risks for corn and soybeans. 🚢 USDA Flash SalesUSDA reported soybean flash sales Tuesday:• 136,000mt (5 mil bu) sold to China for 2025/26 delivery• 231,000mt (8 mil bu) sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery🏦 Federal Reserve & Interest RatesThe Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady near term. December meeting minutes show growing resistance to additional cuts as inflation pressures persist. Strong economic growth and consumer spending have reduced the urgency for easing, even as unemployment has ticked higher. The Fed’s dot plot now projects just one rate cut in all of 2026. Markets are pricing an 83% chance of no cut in January, with slightly higher odds for a cut in March.👉 Subscribe for daily grain market updates💬 Drop your thoughts or questions in the comments

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybean Export InspectionsUS soybean shipments disappointed again last week. Export inspections came in near the low end of expectations, with shipments well below both last week and last year. China was barely present, accounting for only a small share of total inspections. On a marketing-year basis, soybean shipments continue to lag badly compared to last year.🌽 Corn & Wheat ShipmentsCorn inspections beat expectations, even though they slipped from the prior week. Compared to last year, corn shipments remain strong and well ahead on a cumulative basis. Wheat inspections also topped estimates, though they were sharply lower week-to-week and modestly below last year’s pace.🚢 Flash Sale & Export SalesUSDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to Egypt early this week. Despite that sale, total accumulated soybean sales for the marketing year remain significantly behind last year, reinforcing ongoing demand concerns.🌎 China Shifts Away from US AgChina continues pouring money into Latin American ports, railways, and logistics. These investments are designed to lock in cheaper, faster access to South American ag products—especially soybeans. With Chinese involvement now spread across dozens of ports, global trade flows are shifting in a way that may be extremely difficult for the US to reverse, even if trade relations improve.📉 Grain Futures SlideCorn futures dropped sharply on Monday amid speculation that China could release domestic grain reserves, potentially displacing corn with older wheat in feed rations. Soybeans followed lower, pressured by weak export demand and ongoing global competition. Wheat futures also finished the day in the red.🥩 Beef Market OutlookBeef prices could stay elevated as Brazilian cattle production slows. Brazil is entering a contraction phase as producers retain heifers, while the US cattle herd remains at its smallest level in decades. Even with lower production, Brazil is still expected to remain the world’s top beef exporter.🪙 Silver Takes a HitSilver prices saw a massive one-day sell-off after Friday’s historic rally. The drop was driven by profit-taking and technical pressure rather than a fundamental shift. Despite the sharp decline, silver remains dramatically higher on the year, with volatility still front and center.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🪙 Precious MetalsSilver prices surged last week, hitting a new all-time high above $78.50 per ounce on Friday. Silver is now up sharply this year, supported by a structural market deficit, strong industrial demand, and expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The metal is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, and some analysts believe the rally could extend into 2026 amid economic uncertainty and sticky inflation. Gold and platinum also reached record highs on Friday.💵 US Dollar & Interest RatesThe US dollar posted its largest weekly decline in six months. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8% last week as traders looked ahead to key January jobs and inflation reports. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next month, but pricing suggests a rate cut by mid-year and another later in 2026. The dollar is now down roughly 8% on the year — on pace for its worst annual performance since 2017.See charts below.🌧️ South American WeatherDry weather is expected across key Argentine corn and soybean areas over the next seven days. Large portions of Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba are forecast to receive little to no rainfall, while areas farther north may see only limited precipitation. The 8–14 day forecast calls for a return to more normal rainfall across much of Argentina. Meanwhile, mostly normal rainfall is expected across major Brazilian soybean regions during the next two weeks.🌽 Grain MarketsCorn futures drifted lower on Friday, with the Mar26 contract slipping one cent to settle near $4.50. Thin holiday trade and a lack of fresh catalysts kept activity subdued. Soybean futures also declined, as the Jan26 contract fell nearly 5 cents to close near $10.59. Beans remain under pressure from ample global supplies and ongoing concerns about the pace of Chinese buying. Chicago wheat futures moved lower as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continued.🌍 GeopoliticsPresident Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Sunday to continue peace negotiations. Trump said the US and Ukraine are very close to an agreement to end the war, though key issues — including the future of the Donbas region — remain unresolved. No formal deadline was set, but Trump suggested clarity could come within weeks. Ahead of the meeting, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing the call as productive and noting Putin’s interest in helping rebuild Ukraine, including supplying low-cost energy.