Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 Crop Conditions & Harvest Progress
US crop conditions improved modestly last week. Corn ratings rose to 68% good-to-excellent, while soybeans increased to 66%, both slightly above average. Spring wheat saw a stronger jump to 55%, now above normal levels. Winter wheat improved to 27%, though it remains historically weak for this time of year. Harvest is moving quickly, with 25% complete—well ahead of both last week and last year’s pace.
📈 Markets Rally on Iran Deal Hopes
Equity markets surged Monday on news of a preliminary US-Iran peace deal. The Dow hit a record high (+0.9%), while the S&P 500 (+1.7%) and Nasdaq (+3.1%) posted strong gains. Optimism around easing inflation and lower interest rate pressure drove the rally. Crude oil fell 4.8% to $80.75, though prices remain significantly higher year-over-year. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, lingering uncertainty and congestion could delay a full return to normal shipping.
🚢 Fertilizer Shipments Still Constrained
Fertilizer logistics remain tight despite the potential reopening of the Strait. Shipowners are cautious, and fertilizer cargo is being deprioritized behind energy shipments. A backlog of vessels—including 40+ fertilizer ships—continues to clog the route, with flows still down roughly 90% since the conflict began. While prices have eased مؤخراً, US fertilizer costs remain elevated versus last year.
🛢️ NOPA Crush Mixed but Historically Strong
NOPA reported a May soybean crush of 208.8 million bushels—down slightly from April but still a record for the month and up 8.3% year-over-year. The decline was tied to seasonal maintenance downtime. Soybean oil stocks dropped sharply to 1.74 billion pounds, a five-month low and below expectations, signaling tighter near-term supply.
🚢 Export Demand Remains Solid
US corn export inspections fell to 1.6 mmt but remain robust overall. Soybean shipments were strong at 522,687 mt, up sharply week-over-week and more than doubling last year’s pace, though China accounted for just 26%. Wheat exports disappointed at 334,292 mt, trailing expectations and running below last year.
🐛 Screwworm Outbreak Expands, Supports Cattle
The New World screwworm outbreak has spread into west-central Texas, with cases now confirmed across multiple counties and species. Containment challenges persist due to limited sterile fly production, raising concern about further spread. The situation is indirectly supporting cattle prices, as movement restrictions tighten already constrained supply.

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🌍 Geopolitics
🤝 The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to end the war. The agreement includes releasing $25B in assets and lifting oil sanctions, while Iran commits to no nuclear weapons.
🚢 Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, and the U.S. will lift its naval blockade. More details are expected in follow-up talks, with the deal set to be signed Friday.
🌽 Grain Markets
🟡 Soybeans slipped (Nov ’26: $11.32, -2¢) under pressure from good weather and weaker crude.
🌽 Corn rebounded late (Dec ’26: ~$4.40, +1¢) but still faces headwinds from energy markets, favorable weather, and big South American crop expectations.
🌾 Wheat also moved lower on ample global supplies.
🌦️ Weather
⛈️ Severe storms swept the Corn Belt over the weekend, bringing heavy rain, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some areas saw flooding.
🌡️ Temps stay above normal this week (not extreme), with more scattered rain ahead—heaviest in central and eastern areas. Overall tone remains bearish for grains.
📊 Funds (CFTC)
🐻 Funds turned net short corn (sold 121k contracts), the largest sell-off since May ’25.
🌱 Soybean longs shrank (sold 58k), now the smallest since February.
🌾 Wheat also saw selling (23k contracts).
🥩 Cattle
🏭 JBS is closing plants in Pennsylvania and Memphis, shifting cattle elsewhere.
🐄 With the herd at a 75-year low, tight supplies are driving record cattle prices and heavy packer losses.
⚖️ Short term: too much capacity vs. cattle. Long term: less capacity is negative for the industry.

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🌽 USDA Report: Nothing to Get Excited About
The latest USDA report was largely as expected—minimal changes to U.S. stocks and only modest tweaks on demand. South American production was revised higher, keeping global corn supplies comfortable. Overall reaction: underwhelmed 😐
📉 Grain Markets Slip
Soybeans, corn, and wheat all moved lower. Favorable weather 🌦️, weak crude oil 🛢️, and ample supply expectations kept pressure on prices.
🌧️ Weather: Mixed Bag
Rain helped improve drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt, but dryness worsened in northern Minnesota and remains widespread in the High Plains. Still a split story 🌦️➡️🌵
🛢️ Oil Drops on Peace Hopes
Crude fell over 2% as optimism builds around a potential end to the war, but uncertainty remains. Meanwhile, the prolonged conflict continues to fuel inflation pressures 📉➡️📈
🚢 Export Snapshot
Corn sales improved, soybeans disappointed, and wheat exceeded expectations. Notably, China is still absent from new-crop soybean buying, with a large share of sales sitting in “unknown” destinations 👀

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📈 Inflation Hits 3-Year High — Consumer prices jumped 4.2% year over year in May, the largest annual gain since April 2023, driven largely by the energy shock from the Iran war. With inflation outpacing wages and the Fed expected to hold rates steady next week, traders are asking, could grains rally sharply like they did in 2021-2022 if inflation accelerates? 

⛈️ Severe Weather Pounds the Corn Belt — Hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes swept across the region Wednesday, with the active pattern expected to persist through Friday and flooding risks mounting. Temperatures are forecast to moderate by the weekend, followed by below-normal readings next week. 

🌱 Soybeans Snap Losing Streak — After eight straight sessions of declines, Nov26 soybeans rebounded ~7 cents to settle near $11.39, lifted by crude oil strength amid Middle East tensions. Dec26 corn edged ~2 cents higher to close near $4.47, while wheat posted modest gains across most contracts. 

📊 USDA Report Day — The monthly Crop Production and WASDE report drops today at 11am CST, with traders expecting no significant changes to US or global ending stocks. Corn exports could be revised higher, while frustration over the lack of Chinese soybean purchases raises the possibility of a demand cut—though it may be too early for the USDA to act. 

⛽ Ethanol Production Holds Steady — Weekly output came in at 1.1mil barrels per day, unchanged from the prior week, while stocks declined 1% to 24.45mil barrels. Margins remain strong across the Corn Belt, running 25 to 60 cents positive per Reuters data. 

🥩 Beef prices keep climbing—ground beef hit $7.06/lb in May (+13% YoY), and steak surged to $12.80/lb (+16%) as the US cattle herd sits at its lowest level in over seven decades. With more than half of cattle country in drought, meaningful herd rebuilding is unlikely anytime soon — though analysts question how long demand can hold as inflation erodes purchasing power.

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⛈️ SEVERE WEATHER SLAMS THE PLAINS & CORN BELT 🌪️
Powerful storms are sweeping from North Dakota to northern Texas with damaging winds, hail, and tornado threats before pushing east through the Corn Belt! Flood watches are up across KS, MO, IL, IN, KY, and TN, while heat advisories stretch from Minnesota to Texas. 🥵

🌱 SOYBEANS SLIDE FOR 8TH STRAIGHT SESSION 📉
Nov26 beans dropped another 4 cents to $11.32, the lowest since mid-March, pressured by friendly weather, sinking crude, and zero Chinese demand! Soybean oil strength limited the bleeding, while corn finished narrowly mixed and wheat closed mostly higher. 📊

🛢️ OIL TUMBLES DESPITE MIDDLE EAST FIREWORKS 💥
WTI crude crashed 3.4% to $88.20 even after Iran reportedly shot down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz! Traders shrugged off the escalation, focusing instead on Trump's claim that a US-Iran deal is just days away—plus rising oil exports through the waterway! 🚢

🌽 USDA REPORT DAY IS COMING! 📋
The monthly crop production and WASDE report drops Thursday at 11am CST, with traders expecting few changes to US or global ending stocks! Watch for a possible bump in corn exports and keep an eye on soybean demand as China's absence frustrates the trade. 👀

🐛 SCREWWORM FIGHT INTENSIFIES AS CATTLE RALLY 🐂
The USDA unveiled a new fly strain set to DOUBLE sterile fly production, though full capacity won't arrive until next summer as five new cases were confirmed in Texas and New Mexico! Cattle futures didn't flinch—live cattle surged up to $2.89/cwt, and feeders jumped $3.25/cwt—even as Mexico moved to halt most live US animal imports after the close! 💪