Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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Rising input costs are squeezing US farmers as fertilizer and fuel prices surge following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A recent Farm Bureau survey shows 94% of respondents say their financial situation has worsened or stayed the same compared to last year — with smaller operations facing the steepest challenges.

Wheat futures pushed sharply higher Tuesday on deteriorating crop conditions across the Plains. Hot and dry weather has taken a toll, with 54% of Texas winter wheat rated poor to very poor, and Oklahoma close behind at 48%. HRW wheat country is expected to stay dry for at least another 7-10 days.

Tensions between the US and China are heating up, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accusing Beijing of hoarding oil amid the ongoing Iran conflict. China has yet to purchase a single bushel of US soybeans for new crop delivery, despite earlier talk of major long-term commitments.

On a more bullish note for South American supply, Conab raised its outlook for Brazil's soybean crop to a record 179.15mmt, with exports also revised to a record 115.4mmt.

Optimism about peace talks sent crude oil tumbling nearly 8% Tuesday, settling around $91/barrel, with WTI trading near $92.50 early this morning. The Nasdaq jumped 2% and the S&P 500 gained 1.1% on hopes that Iran negotiations could resume within days.

The USDA also reported flash sales Tuesday—316,000mt of corn to Mexico and 120,000mt to unknown destinations.

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In today's update: The DOJ is investigating potential price fixing in the US fertilizer industry, with farmers asked to provide confidential input on the practices of Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. Winter wheat conditions hit their lowest rating since 2023 amid widespread drought across key HRW states. Soybean futures tumbled Monday on expectations of a shift in planted acres away from corn. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is rattling energy and input cost markets, with crude oil topping $99/barrel. Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly wrapped up at 87% complete. And weekly export inspections showed strong soybean shipments — up 47% year-over-year — while wheat came in at the low end of expectations.

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🚨 US BLOCKADES STRAIT OF HORMUZ 🚨
The US is blockading the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks in Pakistan — and markets are already feeling it. 🛢️ WTI crude surged nearly $8/bbl overnight, with the May '26 contract trading near $105. Grains caught a big bid too, with some contracts gapping higher at the open. 📈

💥 The blockade targets ships entering or departing Iranian ports, countering Tehran's plan to impose transit tolls on vessels. Any country that helps Iran? Hit with a 50% tariff. And Trump isn't ruling out strikes on Iranian infrastructure. This war is far from over.

🌱 Trump is also keeping a close eye on fertilizer prices, calling out the "fertilizer monopoly" on Truth Social and vowing to protect US farmers as costs surge amid the conflict.

📊 CFTC CoT Recap (week ending Apr. 7):
Funds were net sellers across the board—47k corn, 23k soybeans, and 12k SRW wheat—largely tied to last week's ceasefire announcement. We're also launching a NEW Daily Fund Tracker chart starting today! 👀

🌽 Friday Futures Recap:

Corn May '26 settled at $4.41—down 3¢ on the day, off ~11¢ on the week (4th straight weekly loss)
Soybeans hit a 2-week high on a flash meal sale to Italy 🇮🇹 (Italy's biggest single US soybean meal purchase since 2019!)
Wheat ended lower on ample global supplies & soft export demand

🌧️ Weekend rains mostly missed key HRW wheat areas in western Kansas and Oklahoma. The 7-day forecast doesn't offer much relief for those dry western zones. Crop ratings drop this afternoon — stay tuned.

⚡ Flash Sales Friday:
125,640mt of corn → unknown destinations
100,000mt of soybean cake/meal → Italy

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🌽 Corn is drifting lower despite a strong crude oil market, with funds trimming their net long position from recent highs. Ample old crop stocks and sufficient 2026 acreage estimates are keeping the bears in control.

🌾 Wheat tumbled to its lowest level since early March after a bearish USDA report showed surging US and world ending stocks. Drought remains a concern in HRW wheat areas, but the market is struggling to find bullish footing.

🫘 Soybeans are holding up better, with large money managers defending a hefty net long position near 190k contracts. US balance sheets could get tight with current acreage estimates — any weather hiccup could be a game changer.

🇧🇷 Brazil is eyeing a jump in its ethanol blend from 30% to 32% to ease consumer fuel costs amid rising global oil prices. The move would boost sugarcane demand and help mills struggling with oversupply and tight margins.

📊 USDA WASDE kept US corn and soybean ending stocks steady while raising wheat stocks to their highest since 2020. World corn stocks were revised higher but remain at an 11-year low, while world soybean stocks were trimmed below expectations.

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Markets on edge as the US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread 🚨
Iran is already alleging violations before talks have formally begun. Peace negotiations are tentatively set for Pakistan this Saturday, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Crude cratered 16% to settle near $94 🛢️—and Goldman says don't expect the low $80s until the strait fully reopens.

The dollar had its worst day since January, dropping 0.8% as investors fled safe havens 💵📉. Markets are now pricing in ~25% odds of a Fed rate cut by year's end.

Wheat got slammed—Chicago May down ~18 cents, KC May off ~12—hit by falling crude and rain forecasts across the Plains 🌾☔. Corn closed lower; beans bucked the trend and finished higher. Watch the western HRW areas — they may miss the forecasted rains.

Super El Niño on the horizon ☀️🌧️ — models show it developing July/August, peaking in November, and lasting into 2027. Generally favorable for the Corn Belt, but watch for planting delays and disease pressure.

USDA WASDE drops at 11am CST today 📊 — expectations are quiet, corn/soy stocks largely unchanged, wheat slightly lower. Post-report breakdown video coming shortly after!

Ethanol production hit a seasonal high at 1.12M bpd, up 5% YoY 🌽⚡. Margins remain solid across the Corn Belt at 15–40 cents positive.
Lots moving today—stay locked in. 👇