Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌱 CHS Announces Major Wisconsin Soybean Plant: CHS is building a ~$700 million soybean processing facility near Evansville, WI, capable of crushing 80 million bushels annually and boosting the company's total capacity by more than two-thirds. 🏗️ Set to open in fall 2028, the plant would theoretically process ~66% of Wisconsin's entire soybean crop.

🇨🇳 China Passes Halfway Mark on Soybean Purchases: China booked at least 1mmt of US soybeans last week, pushing total marketing-year purchases to roughly 13mmt against its 25mmt annual commitment through 2028. 🤝 The milestone lands just ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in Washington next week, with hopes the buying pace keeps fueling the soybean rally.

🌾 Wheat Slides on Black Sea De-Escalation Signs: Chicago wheat fell 3 cents to $7.22/bu and KC wheat dropped 6 cents to $7.93/bu after Trump announced Ukraine and Russia agreed to halt energy infrastructure attacks. 📈 Soybeans and corn moved higher instead, climbing 8 and 3 cents, respectively, on harvest delay concerns and rising crude prices.

🚂 Rail Fuel Surcharges Spike 153%: Average rail fuel surcharges jumped to 48 cents per car-mile, now eating up 11% of total transport costs for corn and soybeans, more than double last year. ⛽ Soaring diesel prices ($6.23/gal national average) are driving the increase, with costs ultimately trickling down to farmers via weaker basis.

🌽 Corn Conditions Tick Up, Harvest Begins: Corn ratings improved slightly to 57% good-to-excellent while harvest hit 8% complete, in line with the five-year average. 🫘 Soybean conditions held steady at 58% good-to-excellent, with harvest just getting started at 6% complete.

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting Kicks Off: Brazilian soybean planting reached 0.4% complete, running ahead of last year's pace despite excessive moisture slowing progress in some regions. 🌽 First-crop corn planting also advanced to 22% complete, well ahead of both last week and last year.

🚢 Export Inspections Mixed Last Week: Corn shipments slipped 9% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybean shipments jumped 45% to 672,759mt with China making up about 49% of inspections. 📦 Wheat shipments rose 5.9% to 456,720mt but remained well below year-ago levels.

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🌽 USDA cut its national corn yield to 178.5 bpa (from 180.7) and production to 15.8 billion bushels, close to expectations. 📉 Even so, it's still the second-largest corn crop on record, while corn ending stocks fell to 1.567 billion bushels (stocks-to-use below 10%) and global stocks hit a 12-year low; soybean yield ticked up to 52.8 bpa.

🔥 August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, right in line with expectations, driven largely by a 3.9% jump in gasoline prices. 📈 Traders now see a nearly 90% chance of a Fed rate hike this week, up sharply from roughly 70% before the report.

💰 Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds net buying 13k corn and 22k soybean contracts, pushing both net longs to record highs (414k corn, 257k soybeans). 📊 Funds sold 10k SRW wheat contracts, but the combined corn/soybean/wheat fund net long hit a record 696k contracts.

🎲 Kalshi is eyeing an expansion into agricultural perpetual futures, aiming to give farmers and traders a new way to gain leveraged exposure to commodity prices. ⛽ The company is also pursuing an oil-linked perpetual tied to WTI crude, with contracts trading 23 hours a day, five days a week.

🌎 Corn export sales came in at 1.9mmt for the new marketing year, beating expectations with Mexico as the top buyer, while soybean sales jumped 35% week-over-week to 2.6mmt led by China. 🌾 Wheat sales hit a marketing-year low of 194,200mt, down 38% from the prior week, with the Philippines as the top buyer.

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🌱 Soybeans surge on China demand — Nov26 futures jumped nearly 23¢ to close near $13.32/bu after China snapped up ~1mmt of US soybeans this week. The buying comes just two weeks ahead of the expected Xi-Trump meeting in Washington 🇺🇸🇨🇳.

📊 USDA WASDE Day — Traders are bracing for today's 11am CST Crop Production report, with a notable cut to corn yield expected and only modest reductions to soybeans. Corn ending stocks are projected to fall sharply while wheat stocks edge higher, both domestically and globally 🌽🌾.

🛢️ Crude oil rockets higher — Brent surged 6.3% to top $107/bbl and WTI jumped 6.7% above $102/bbl, both hitting highs not seen since mid-May, as Middle East attacks disrupted export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned the US-Iran conflict could drag past the midterms, while gas prices climbed to $4.28/gal ⛽🔥.

📈 Inflation heats up — August PPI rose 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y, driven largely by a 4.2% jump in energy prices. Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike, with the CPI report due out this morning 💵📉.

⛽ Ethanol update — Weekly production slipped 1% to 1.1M barrels/day, even as stocks climbed to a seasonal high of 25.19M barrels. Corn Belt margins strengthened, ranging from 5¢ negative to 40¢ positive 🌽🏭.

🚢 Flash sales to China — USDA confirmed 272,000mt of soybeans sold to China and 206,500mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. Check the China soybean purchase tracker below for the full picture 🇨🇳📦.

🌦️ Drought & weather watch — Rain eased drought in parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, while dry heat worsened conditions across Illinois, Missouri and Oklahoma. NOAA confirmed summer 2026 was the hottest on record for the US, with August alone averaging a record 75.6°F 🌡️🌵.

🥇 Kalshi breaks new ground — The prediction platform launched gold and silver perpetual futures after CFTC approval — the agency's first nod for a non-crypto perpetual. Traditional exchanges like CME are pushing back hard against the move 🥈⚖️.

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🛢️ Oil Surges on US-Iran Tensions—Brent crude jumped 3.4% to top $100/barrel (highest since late May), while WTI climbed 3.3% to over $96. Pain at the pump continues as gas hits $4.22/gallon and diesel sets a record $5.94/gallon, squeezing consumers and supply chains alike! ⛽📈

🌾 Wheat Tumbles Despite War Disruptions—Chicago wheat fell ~18¢ to $7.29/bushel, and KC wheat dropped ~13¢ to $8.06, even as Russia-Ukraine strikes choke off Black Sea shipments. Hopes for resumed US-mediated peace talks seem to be capping the rally. 🕊️📉

🌽 Corn & Soybeans Slide Ahead of USDA Report—Corn eased ~6¢ to $5.28/bushel, and soybeans lost ~7¢ to $13.10 as traders position for Friday's big WASDE release. 📊⏳

📅 All Eyes on Friday's WASDE Report—Traders expect a notable cut to corn yield/production and a smaller trim to soybeans, with US corn stocks seen falling sharply. Globally, the story looks similar: corn stocks down big, soybeans down modestly, and wheat ticking higher. 🔍🌍

🇷🇺 Sovecon Slashes Russian Wheat Export Forecast—The group now sees 2026/27 wheat exports at 41.4mmt (-7.2%) and total grain exports at 49.4mmt (-8.2%) as Black Sea AND Sea of Azov shipments get disrupted. Sovecon warns this could hit markets even harder than the 2022 crisis, since both major exporters are now blocked. ⚠️🚢

🌍 New Suppliers Step Up as Ukraine Struggles—Argentina's corn exports could hit a record 10mmt this Aug-Sept (vs. the usual 3mmt!), while the US is filling Europe's corn gap, supplying 40%+ of EU imports in July-August. Drought-hit EU corn imports are set to jump to 25mmt as Ukrainian supply lines stay squeezed. 🇦🇷🇺🇸🇪🇺

🇲🇽🇨🇳 Fresh Flash Sales Hit the Tape—USDA confirmed 182,880mt of corn sold to Mexico, plus 340,000mt of soybeans to China and 100,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/27 marketing year. Strong demand signals even as markets digest bearish price action elsewhere! 🚢💰

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 StoneX Crop Estimates: StoneX trimmed its corn yield forecast to 182.9 bpa but raised production to 16.207 billion bushels on higher acreage. Soybean yield held at 53 bpa while production climbed to 4.547 billion bushels—all eyes now turn to Friday's USDA WASDE report. 📊

🌾 Crop Conditions & Harvest: Corn conditions slipped slightly to 56% good-to-excellent as harvest kicked off at 5% complete nationally. 🚜 Soybeans held steady at 58% g/e, spring wheat harvest raced to 86% done, and winter wheat planting is just getting started at 2%.

📈 Wheat Futures Surge: Wheat futures jumped Tuesday as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal faded, with Chicago wheat up 13¢ to $7.47/bu and KC wheat up 17¢ to $8.19/bu. ⚔️ Corn slipped to $5.34/bu while soybeans gained to $13.16/bu ahead of Friday's big report.

🤖 AI on the Farm: About 17% of farmers worldwide are now using generative AI, making it one of ag's fastest-growing technologies. 🧑‍🌾 US farmers lead the charge, leaning on AI for everything from agronomic advice to daily decision-making amid rising costs and weather uncertainty.

🚢 Export Inspections: Corn export inspections blew past expectations at 1.7mmt, up 11% week-over-week and 15% year-over-year. 📦 Soybean shipments rose 49% from the prior week to 422,016mt (though down YoY), while wheat shipments slipped to 342,733mt with no Chinese purchases recorded.

🔶 Copper Hits Record Highs: LME copper broke above $14,600/mt this month, fueled by a rush of shipments into the US ahead of possible tariffs. ⚡ Long-term demand from AI data centers, EVs, and clean energy — plus supply worries from mining disruptions — keeps the bullish outlook intact.