Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🇷🇺🇺🇦 US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are expected to resume in November, possibly in Abu Dhabi, after Putin agreed following Wednesday’s meeting with US officials. The talks will focus on post-war security guarantees, though deep divisions remain and US-Ukraine ties have frayed after Trump’s diesel export deal with Russia.

🌾📉 Wheat futures tumbled on hopes for improved Black Sea shipping, with Dec26 Chicago wheat down 15 cents to $6.28 and Dec26 KC wheat off 18 cents to $6.73. Corn bounced from a 14-week low to close up about a penny at $4.63, while Nov26 soybeans slipped 3 cents to $12.45 under harvest pressure and record crop expectations.

🌊🌎 Investors are bracing for a potentially historic El Niño, with money managers adjusting portfolios for market disruptions that could last into early 2027. Droughts and floods could hit crop production and push food prices higher, with Indonesia, Brazil, and Colombia flagged as most vulnerable.

🇨🇳🫘 USDA announced more soybean flash sales Wednesday, including 134,000mt (5mil bushels) to China for 2026/27 delivery. Exporters also sold 165,000mt (6mil bushels) to Spain for the same marketing year.

⛽🌽 US ethanol production climbed to a five-week high at 1.094mil barrels per day, up 2.7% from the prior week but down 1.6% year over year. Stocks rose to 24.56mil barrels, and Corn Belt margins strengthened to a range of 20 to 65 cents per gallon positive.

₿📈 Bitcoin jumped as much as 2.4% to $84,737 Wednesday alongside tech stocks, fueled by strong earnings and AI enthusiasm, with spot Bitcoin ETFs pulling in $2.3 billion over the past month. Analysts cautioned the rally may reflect short covering rather than sustained demand, especially with trading volume remaining flat.

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🌽❓ The Nebraska Corn Board is pressing the USDA for answers after Nebraska’s corn yield was raised 11 bu/acre in the October Crop Production report, following a 6-bushel cut from August to September, even as good-to-excellent ratings have slid since mid-July. The board wants survey counts and response rates, warning that farmers are growing reluctant to fill out USDA surveys as trust in the reports erodes.

📉🌾 Corn fell for a sixth straight session Tuesday, with Dec26 down 5 cents to $4.62 and Nov26 soybeans down ~5 cents to $12.48 on fund liquidation and dry Corn Belt weather that should speed harvest. Expectations for a record soybean crop outweighed renewed Chinese buying, while wheat followed corn and beans lower.

🇨🇳🚢 China’s imports of US soybeans rebounded to 360,878mt in September, up from zero a year ago, but Brazil still supplied 10.7mmt, about 90% of the month’s total. Year-to-date, US imports are down 34% to 11.06mmt while Brazil’s are up 3.4% to 65.84mmt, and China has now bought just over half of its 25mmt purchase commitment.

🇧🇷🗳️ Brazil’s farm lobby could gain major influence if Flávio Bolsonaro, the heavy favorite at ~80% on Polymarket, wins the presidency, since he has pledged to let the farm caucus pick his agriculture minister. Agribusiness would push for cheaper credit and looser environmental rules, though his push for closer US ties could create friction with Brazil’s key buyer, China.

⚡🫘 USDA announced a flash sale of 612,000mt (22mil bu) of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery on Tuesday. China has bought 2mmt (77mil bu) through flash sales over the past week, and 2.084mmt across five sales since October 14th.

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📉 Corn and soybean futures closed lower on Monday, with Dec26 corn dropping about 7 cents to $4.67, its lowest settlement since mid-August, and Nov26 soybeans falling 8 cents to roughly $12.54. Dry harvest weather, funds selling out of long positions, and expectations of a record soybean crop weighed on prices, and wheat followed them lower. 🌾

🚜 The US harvest made big gains last week, with corn 44% complete and soybeans 64% complete, but both still trail their five-year averages. Iowa corn and Nebraska soybeans are furthest behind, and winter wheat planting had its slowest week on record. 🐢

🇧🇷 AgRural reports Brazilian soybean planting is 26% complete, slightly ahead of last year’s pace, helped by rain across central Brazil. First-crop corn planting is behind last year at 48%, as heavy rain in the south has slowed fieldwork. 🌧️

🚢 Weekly US soybean export inspections hit 2 million metric tons, up 80% from the prior week, with China taking about 64% of the total. Corn and wheat inspections both fell well short of expectations, with wheat shipments down 36% year to date. 📦

⚡ The USDA announced flash sales on Monday of 114,000mt of soybeans to China and 261,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/27 marketing year. These new sales add to the recent strength in soybean export demand. 🤝

📈 Tech stocks rebounded Monday, lifting the Nasdaq 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.4% after a rough week driven by hot inflation, doubts about AI profitability, and rising oil prices. Chip stocks led the recovery, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index broke an eight-session losing streak. 💻

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🇺🇦 Ukraine Grain Routes — Russian attacks have nearly halted Black Sea shipments, so Zelenskiy is asking Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary to let Ukrainian grain move through their countries. Hungary has signaled it will allow sealed corn trains through, a crucial lifeline since about 90% of Ukraine’s grain exports normally move by sea.

🌽 Grains Slide—Soybeans fell to $12.61, and Dec corn dropped to $4.74 as favorable weather is expected to speed harvest this week. Wheat posted its seventh straight weekly decline despite ongoing Black Sea disruptions.

📊 Fund Tracker—Money managers dumped 83k corn contracts last week and have cut their net long by 168k since mid-September. Funds also sold 8k soybean contracts, but their 250k net long position remains near record levels.

🚢 Flash Sales—USDA announced 558,000mt of soybeans sold to China and another 236,000mt to unknown destinations. Japan also bought 127,000mt of US corn for the 2026/27 marketing year.

📦 Export Sales—Corn sales were strong at 1.1mmt, up 42% from the four-week average, with Mexico leading the way. Soybean sales disappointed at 574,900mt, down 40% from the four-week average, while wheat came in light at 319,900mt.

💸 US Debt Interest—Interest costs on the national debt hit a record $1.05 trillion in fiscal 2026, now the third-largest category of federal spending. Experts say a crisis isn’t imminent, but the growing burden leaves the economy more vulnerable to shocks.

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🫘📉 Soybeans dropped sharply Thursday, with Nov26 down ~14 cents to $12.63/bu, the lowest settlement since late August. Harvest pressure, dry near-term forecasts, and a weak September crush outweighed renewed Chinese demand, while Dec26 corn slipped 3 cents to $4.78 and wheat followed lower.

🏭🛢️ NOPA’s September crush fell to a 13-month low at 296.3 million bushels, down 4.5% from August, as plant maintenance and harvest disruptions slowed processing. Soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.05 billion lbs, their lowest since November 2014 and below trade expectations.

🇧🇷🌱 Conab raised Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 181.62mmt and corn to 148.02mmt, with exports of both expected to climb. Acreage growth is the smallest in 20 years amid tight margins and El Niño uncertainty, and Conab’s numbers still differ materially from USDA’s (corn 9mmt higher, soybeans 4.38mmt lower).

🇨🇳🚢 USDA flagged flash sales of 330,000mt of soybeans to China and 283,450mt to unknown destinations for 2026/27. Bloomberg reports China bought another 20 cargoes of US beans late this week, so more flash sales are likely.

💰🔥 The Producer Price Index jumped 1.3% in September, its biggest monthly gain since March 2022, pushing annual wholesale inflation to 6.3%. Energy led the surge with gasoline up 20% and diesel up 21%, yet odds of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting fell to about 30%.

🌵🗺️ Warm, dry weather worsened drought in southern Illinois, southern Indiana, southern Missouri, and northern Kentucky last week. The upside is ideal harvest conditions, helping farmers catch up on corn and soybean progress that’s lagging the five-year average.

🌽⛽ Ethanol output rose 1.1% to 1.065 million barrels per day, while stocks climbed to 23.94 million barrels. Margins strengthened across the Corn Belt, ranging from 5 to 50 cents per gallon positive per Reuters data.