Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🤝 The US and China agreed to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of nonsensitive goods, including US ag exports, and extended their trade truce until mid-January. 🌐 The two sides also launched an AI dialogue and agreed no country should impose tolls on international waterways, an apparent jab at Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz.

🇨🇳 China released a list of 1,619 US products exempt from additional country-specific tariffs, including wheat, corn, rice, sorghum, and meats. 🫘 Soybeans were left off the list and slipped overnight, even though China has been buying US beans aggressively.

🌽 Dec corn gained about a penny Friday to close near $5.28 after last week's selloff over the lack of detail on Chinese purchases. 📈 Nov soybeans rose 2 cents to $13.19, while wheat slipped on hopes for easing Black Sea shipping disruptions.

🌧️ Des Moines has received nearly 13 inches of rain this month, about 10 inches above normal, and needs just under 2 more to tie the 1914 September record. ☔ Another round of rain arrives Tuesday, but the 8-14 day outlook turns drier across Iowa.

💰 Western Corn Belt soybean processors are paying premiums of 60 to 85 cents for immediate delivery as rain delays harvest, with Cargill's Sioux City plant offering up to $1 over November futures. 🏭 It's a big opportunity for farmers with old-crop or early-harvested beans, as USDA projects a record 2.78 billion bushels crushed this year.

📊 Funds sold 10k corn contracts last week but still hold their third-largest net long on record at 404k. 🚀 They bought 24k soybean contracts, pushing their net long to a record 265k.

🛢️ Trump rejected a phased seven-day deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran says it won't soften its terms. ⚠️ Tensions are spreading as Iran-backed Houthis launch drones and a missile toward Saudi Arabia, with reports Trump could resume bombing after the midterms.

🐄 ICE operations in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have caused labor shortages at feedyards and packing plants, delaying shipments of thousands of cattle. 🥩 Several southwest Kansas plants halted operations last week, which could tighten beef supplies and push already-high prices even higher.

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🤝 US-China Talks: Xi Jinping and President Trump met in Washington, but the meeting produced no major breakthroughs on tariffs, AI, or ag trade. Hopes for China dropping its 10% retaliatory soybean tariff or new details on its $17 billion ag purchase commitment went unmet, and grains are trading lower. 📉

🚢 Black Sea Shipping: Zelenskiy says India, Turkey, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern nations are joining talks to reopen Black Sea shipping, which has been near a standstill since July. Wheat futures slipped on the news as top buyers like Egypt and Indonesia shift purchases to France, Argentina, and Australia. 🌾

🌧️ Drought Monitor: Heavy rains improved drought conditions across much of the northern Corn Belt, though southern Missouri got drier. The High Plains saw some relief too, but winter wheat areas remain 58% in drought. 🏜️

📦 Export Sales: Soybean sales disappointed at just 21 million bushels, down 66% from the prior week, with China as the top buyer. Corn came in at 33 million bushels and wheat at 10 million, both below expectations. 📊

🇨🇳 Flash Sale: USDA confirmed a flash sale of 120,000mt of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery. It's a small but welcome sign of continued Chinese buying. 🫘

⛽ Diesel Exports: The Trump administration is exploring limits on diesel exports to bring down prices, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright sounding out refiners. The industry is pushing back hard, warning restrictions could force refiners to cut production of all fuels. 🏭

🛢️ US-Iran & Hormuz: The US and Iran are weighing a phased deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Iran's conditions are met. News of the potential agreement pushed WTI crude down about 1.7% to around $93 per barrel. 💰

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🤝 The US and China agreed to extend their trade-war truce by two months to January 10, giving both sides more time to reach a broader deal. 🇨🇳 Treasury Secretary Bessent said this week's Trump-Xi meeting could bring announcements on ag purchases, along with a plan to set aside $30 billion each in US and Chinese exports for tariff relief.

🌽 Grain and oilseed prices slipped ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit, with Dec26 corn dropping nearly 8 cents and Dec26 HRW wheat hitting its lowest trade since late August. 🫘 China is likely more than halfway to its 25 million-ton US soybean pledge, but its separate $17 billion ag purchase commitment has largely stalled.

⛽ The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a 90-day ban on diesel exports as the national average hits $6.52 per gallon, up $2.83 from last year. ⚠️ Energy Secretary Chris Wright denied the plan, and critics warn a ban could force refiners to cut output and drive fuel prices even higher.

🚜 Some farmers are locking in diesel prices through year-end, with some expecting another $1 to $2 per gallon jump if the US-Iran war drags on. 💸 Higher fuel costs could also push fertilizer up another $100 to $200 per ton, prompting early spring fertilizer purchases.

🌾 Chicago wheat futures have surged 40% from June lows to a 3.5-year high as the Russia-Ukraine war brings Black Sea shipments to a near standstill. 🚢 Buyers are turning to Australia and Argentina, paying roughly 25% more than they did for Black Sea wheat.

💵 The US dollar climbed to its highest level since late July as markets bet on more Fed rate hikes. 📈 Money markets are pricing in a 55% chance of another quarter-point hike in October, with Brent crude back above $100 per barrel.

🏭 US ethanol production fell to a 20-week low of 1.028 million barrels per day, down 6.5% from the prior week. 📊 Stocks dipped to a 6-week low but remain a record for the week at 24.68 million barrels, while Corn Belt margins stay strong.

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🌽 Iowa's corn and soybean harvests are running well behind schedule, with just 4% of corn and 2% of soybeans harvested after persistent rain left farmers only two days suitable for fieldwork last week. 🌧️ The state averaged 3.6 inches of rain last week, and more is on the way, with the heaviest amounts forecast for western Iowa.

📉 Corn futures slipped about 6 cents to near $5.37 and soybeans fell about 3 cents to near $13.26 as traders awaited this week's Trump-Xi meeting and eyed drier forecasts that could speed up harvest. 🌾 Wheat also finished lower on hopes that a Russia-Ukraine truce could reopen Black Sea shipping.

🛢️ WTI crude fell 1.2% to $94.99 for its fifth straight daily decline, but fuel prices keep climbing, with gasoline at $4.48 and diesel hitting a record $6.53 per gallon. 🚫 President Trump voiced support for banning US diesel exports, though critics warn the move could disrupt supply chains and actually push pump prices higher.

🌱 A London-based think tank projects global biofuel production could jump roughly 70% by 2030, led by the US, Brazil, and Indonesia as countries raise blending mandates amid the energy crisis. 🌍 If all proposed mandates are implemented, feedstock production could require an additional 89 million acres, roughly the size of Germany.

📊 Kalshi has asked the CFTC for approval to offer leverage on its prediction-market event contracts in a bid to attract more institutional traders. ⚖️ Rival Polymarket is pursuing similar approval, while Kalshi plans to limit leveraged contracts to qualified self-clearing members if approved.

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 Corn futures rallied Monday, with Dec26 gaining ~16¢ to close at $5.43/bu. The move was driven by hopes for stronger Chinese demand and rain slowing Corn Belt harvest.

🌱 Soybeans jumped ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting, with Nov26 up ~25¢ to $13.28/bu. Traders are betting the talks could lead China to drop its 10% tariff and let private buyers start purchasing again.

🌾 Wheat also closed higher as Russia and Ukraine traded drone strikes, cooling hopes for a de-escalation. US-China trade talks wrapped their second day Monday ahead of the big Trump-Xi sit-down.

🚜 Crop conditions held steady while harvest progress sped up nationwide. Corn crop rated 57% good/excellent (harvest 13% done) and soybeans held at 58% good/excellent (harvest 12% done), with winter wheat planting at 17%.

⛽ Diesel prices hit a record $6.51/gal, sparking calls from farm-state Republicans for an export ban. The White House says it's not considering restrictions yet, even as Ag Secretary Rollins hints at a fuel-cost relief plan soon.

🚗 California finally cleared the path for E15 sales after Gov. Newsom signed new legislation. The move could save drivers billions and add ~650 million gallons of annual ethanol demand in the state.

🚢 Russia is shifting grain exports to Baltic and Arctic ports as Black Sea shipping stays restricted. Exports were down 31% July-August y/y, even as USDA expects only a modest hit to Russia's overall grain trade.

📦 US corn and soybean export inspections came in strong last week, beating expectations and last year's pace. China made up 59% of corn inspections, while wheat shipments lagged, down 64% vs. the same week last year.