Grain Markets and Other Stuff

• Corn and Soybeans GAP Lower on Trump Tariff Announcement

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Tariffs and Lower Markets5:10 Historic Corn Belt Flooding8:07 Ethanol Production9:00 China Ship Sales Decline10:43 Flash SaleTrump's Trade War Escalates: New Tariffs Imposed 🌍💥President Trump escalated the trade war on Wednesday, announcing a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on Saturday. Additionally, he introduced a reciprocal tariff policy targeting 180 nations, including the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and a 34% tariff on China, bringing the total tariff rate on Chinese goods to 54%. These reciprocal tariffs will begin on April 9, with Canada and Mexico exempt, though imports not covered by the USMCA agreement will face a 25% tariff. Corn and soybean futures dropped sharply in response, while the US stock market fell to fresh lows overnight. 📉💰Historic Flooding Forecast for the Corn Belt 🌧️🌊Severe flooding is expected in the Corn Belt, with a storm system that started on Wednesday causing significant rainfall. Areas in Southeast Missouri, Southern Indiana, Southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Southern Ohio are at risk of receiving between 10 to 15 inches of rain, with more moderate amounts expected in other regions. Over 32 million people are under a flood watch, and the flooding is expected to impact agricultural production in these regions. 🌽🌾US Ethanol Production Increases 📈🌱US ethanol production increased by 1% last week, totaling 1.06 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks decreased by 2.7% but are still 1% higher compared to the same time last year. Despite the recent dip, stock levels remain historically high. Ethanol production margins are currently near breakeven levels, according to Reuters data. 📊💡Chinese Ship Sales Decline Amid Port Fee Threat 🚢❌Chinese ship sales dropped sharply in March due to President Trump's threat to impose a $1 million port fee on Chinese vessels. This has raised concerns in the global shipping industry, particularly regarding the impact on US grain exports. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that the proposed shipping fees could increase soybean export costs by 9.5 to 27.5 cents per bushel. 🚢📉Flash Sale of Soybean Cake and Meal 🛍️🌾US exporters sold 135,000mt of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines for the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first flash sale of soybean cake and meal for the year. 🌱

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• Will Biofuel FINALLY Save the Soybean Market?? + Liberation Day Jitters

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Soybeans and Biofuel Push3:23 "Liberation Day"5:04 Heavy US Rainfall7:55 Farmer Sentiment Declines9:54 StoneX Cuts Brazil Crop EstimatesBiofuel Groups Push for Higher Diesel Mandates ⚡💡U.S. oil and biofuel groups, including the American Petroleum Institute, are pushing the EPA to increase federal biomass diesel blending mandates to 5.5–5.75 billion gallons, up from the current 3.35 billion gallons. The ethanol blending requirement is expected to stay at 15 billion gallons. However, smaller refiners and fuel retailers oppose the increase, warning of higher fuel costs and potential job losses. Additionally, some industry members are calling for the reinstatement of the blenders tax credit, arguing that the expired credit kept fuel prices lower for consumers. 🌱⛽Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs Begin Today 📅⚖️President Trump's reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. trading partners go into effect today. Although the specific details of the tariffs will be announced at 3 p.m. Central time, these tariffs are expected to impact U.S. agriculture, with Mexico, Canada, and China being the top buyers of U.S. agricultural products. Retaliatory tariffs could target nearly $27 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods, potentially harming farmers. Meanwhile, Canada has reportedly decided to avoid counter-tariffs on most food imports from the U.S. 🥩🌾Heavy Rains to Impact the Central U.S. 🌧️Rainfall is expected to accumulate across the central U.S. Corn Belt, particularly in southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and parts of Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri. Some areas could see between 10 and 16 inches of rain over the next five days, which may impact planting schedules and soil conditions. 🌧️🌽Farmer Sentiment Drops Amid Trade and Policy Uncertainty 🌾📉U.S. farmer sentiment fell in March, according to Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index dropped to 140, a 12-point decrease from February. Falling crop prices and trade policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, contributed to the decline. A record number of farmers expect exports to decline in the next five years, and nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate that a second round of Market Facilitation Program payments will be necessary to mitigate trade war impacts. 📉🌾Brazil’s Soybean and Corn Crops Lowered 🌾📊Brazil’s soybean crop estimate has been reduced to 167.4 million metric tons due to adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul. Additionally, the forecasts for both the first and second corn crops have been lowered. Despite these cuts, Brazil's second corn crop is expected to receive normal rainfall over the next 14 days, and no weather issues are currently anticipated. 🌱🌽

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  12:23
• MORE "Trump Bucks" are Probably Headed to Farm Country

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 More Cash 4 Farmers5:11 USDA Report9:44 Heavy Rains11:00 Russia Wheat Update11:47 Strong Grain ShipmentsTrump Administration Considers Financial Aid Package for Farmers Amid Trade War 🏦🌾The Trump administration is preparing a financial aid package for farmers as reciprocal tariffs are set to be imposed on all U.S. trading partners tomorrow. This move is expected to trigger retaliatory tariffs that could severely impact U.S. agriculture. The new aid package could be larger than the $23 billion bailout from the 2018 trade war with China. In that previous conflict, U.S. agriculture suffered a $27 billion loss in exports. The current situation with tariffs targeting multiple countries could result in a higher cost for the aid package. 🌍💸US Farmers Set to Plant Most Corn Acres in 12 Years 🌽📈The USDA's Prospective Plantings report shows that U.S. farmers intend to plant the highest number of corn acres in 12 years, with an estimated 95.3 million acres—up 5% from last season. Soybean plantings are projected at 83.5 million acres, marking a 4% decline from last year, while wheat plantings are forecast at 45.4 million acres, down nearly 2%. The USDA's quarterly grain stocks report revealed a decrease in U.S. corn stocks, but an increase in soybean and wheat stocks compared to the previous year. 🌾🌱Heavy Rains Expected Across Central US 🌧️🌾Heavy rainfall is predicted to impact areas from eastern Texas through Ohio, with some regions potentially receiving up to 15 inches of rain over the next 10 days. The excessive rainfall could cause flooding and delay the planting of corn and soybeans in affected areas. Farmers in the wettest regions typically aim to plant early corn by today, so the heavy rains could hinder their ability to do so. 🌧️🚜Russia's Wheat Crop Forecast Revised Down 📉🌾Russia's wheat crop forecast for 2025/2026 has been lowered to 80.3 million metric tons, down from the November estimate of 81.5 million metric tons. Dry conditions earlier in the season, particularly for spring wheat, have negatively impacted crop prospects. However, recent improvements in winter wheat conditions and expected rain could provide some relief to the crop. 🌧️🌾US Corn Shipments Strong, Soybean Shipments Surge 📦🌽U.S. corn shipments exceeded expectations last week, with 1.6 million metric tons (64 million bushels) inspected for export. This represents a 5% increase compared to the previous week and a 9.7% rise from the same week last year. Soybean shipments also surpassed expectations at 793,250 metric tons (29 million bushels), up 54% from the same week last year. Wheat shipments, though down from the previous week, were still close to expectations. 📦🌾

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  13:41
• How Reliable Are These USDA Acreage Numbers??

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Acreage Report Reliability3:32 Wheat Collapse7:44 China Grain News9:24 China Cash Injection10:19 The Funds11:09 Trump/Canada TalksUSDA Report to Release Key Data on Plantings and Grain StocksThe USDA will release its highly anticipated Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks report today. Traders expect to see a significant increase in U.S. corn plantings compared to last year, while a notable decline in soybean plantings is anticipated. U.S. corn stocks as of March 1st are expected to be down 2.4% from the same time last year, while soybean stocks are expected to be up by 3%. Wheat stocks are forecasted to rise by 11.6%.Chicago Wheat Futures Drop to 8-Month LowWheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped to their lowest level in nearly eight months on Friday, with the May25 contract losing almost 4 cents, closing near $5.28 per bushel. Prices have been pressured by ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, as well as ample global supplies. Weak export demand and beneficial rainfall across the U.S. Plains also contributed to the market's decline. Traders are positioning ahead of today's USDA reports.China’s Focus on Agricultural Self-SufficiencyChina is investing heavily in improving agricultural land to strengthen national food security. The nation aims to transform 200 million acres into high-standard farmland by 2030, utilizing technology to improve soil quality, crop management, and disaster resilience. By 2035, all basic farmland is expected to meet high-standard criteria. China is prioritizing food self-sufficiency and diversifying its agricultural supply chains amidst rising geopolitical tensions.China Boosts Economy with Investment in State BanksChina has invested $69 billion into four state-owned banks to bolster their financial stability and support economic growth. The government’s move will help these banks expand, strengthen their capital reserves, and invest in emerging industries. This investment also aims to address pressure from narrowing profit margins due to interest rate cuts.Funds Reduce Corn Market ExposureCFTC data shows that "The Funds" reduced their net-long position in the corn market last week, with large money managers selling 31k corn contracts. Since mid-February, the funds have slashed their net-long position by 286k contracts. The funds were also net sellers of soybean and SRW wheat contracts.President Trump and Canadian PM Discuss Tariffs and Trade FrameworkPresident Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held a productive phone call on Friday, though Canada remains set to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. this week in response to Trump's planned reciprocal tariffs. Carney criticized the tariff threats as a betrayal of the USMCA agreement. Going forward, the two leaders plan to negotiate a new economic and security framework after Canada’s upcoming election.

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  13:03
• Soybeans Rally on TikTok News. Wait...What??

  Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.President Trump Considering Lowering Tariffs on China for TikTok Agreement 🇨🇳📉President Trump is reportedly considering reducing tariffs on Chinese imports as part of efforts to secure a deal with TikTok's parent company, ByteDance. This comes after President Biden's law requiring ByteDance to sell TikTok's U.S. operations by January 19. Trump extended the deadline to April 5 to allow more time for negotiations. If no deal is reached by then, Trump is open to further extensions. The move is being considered amid talks with four potential buyers. Additionally, Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs next week. Soybean futures rallied yesterday, possibly influenced by these developments and concerns about low U.S. soybean acreage. 🌱💼USDA Report to Release Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grain Stocks 📊🌾The USDA will release its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday, which traders are closely watching. Expectations include a significant rise in U.S. corn plantings compared to last year, while soybean acreage is anticipated to decline. Corn stocks as of March 1st are expected to be down 2.4% from last year, while soybean stocks are expected to rise by 3%, and wheat stocks are forecasted to increase by 11.6%. These reports will provide key insights into market trends. 📉📈President Trump Encourages Collaboration on U.S. Biofuels Policy 🚗🌱President Trump has directed the U.S. fuel and oil industries to work together on shaping future biofuels policy. Two meetings have taken place, with discussions focusing on biofuel blending requirements, small refiner exemptions, and biofuel tax policies. The industry also discussed the 45Z tax credit and the potential for increasing the renewable diesel and biodiesel mandate. The new mandate range could be between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons, compared to the current 3.35 billion gallons. ⚡🚗USDA Weekly Drought Monitor: Corn Belt Sees Improvement 🌧️🌽The USDA's latest drought monitor showed improvements in large portions of the Corn Belt, with snow and rainfall benefiting areas like Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois. However, conditions worsened in Missouri, and dry weather in South Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma has led to deteriorating drought conditions in those areas. Drought is impacting 44% of U.S. corn, 36% of soybeans, and 38% of winter wheat. 🌧️📊US Corn Export Sales Decline 📉US corn export sales were reported at 1 million metric tons (41 million bushels) last week, down 31% from the previous week but in line with the 4-week average. The largest buyer was Japan. Soybean sales were below expectations at 338,500 metric tons (12 million bushels), down 4% from the prior week and 28% from the 4-week average. Wheat sales also came in lower than expected at 100,300 metric tons (4 million bushels), down 65% from the previous week. 🌍📉

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