Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🇷🇺 Putin Signals Openness to Peace Deal – Putin said early this morning that several countries, including the US and China, are ready to support a peace agreement, though he stressed Russia and Ukraine must ultimately resolve it themselves. He also repeated prior warnings about potential attacks on airplanes in Russian airspace.

🌾 EU Scrambles to Keep Ukrainian Grain Moving – The EU is working with Ukraine and neighboring countries on alternative export routes as low water levels on the Danube complicate "solidarity lane" efforts, with Ukrainian grain exports down roughly 58% year-over-year in August. The bloc is also weighing extra financial support for farmers hit by this summer's heat and drought.

⛽ US Ethanol Production Dips but Stays Seasonally Strong – Weekly ethanol output slipped to 1.11 million barrels per day, down slightly week-over-week but up 3.7% versus last year, while stocks fell 1% week-over-week to 25.04 million barrels. Corn Belt margins weakened, ranging from 25 cents negative to 10 cents positive per Reuters data.

🌽 Arkansas Harvest Running Well Ahead of Schedule – Arkansas' soybean harvest sits at 4% complete, above the five-year average of 2%, while corn harvest is 42% done versus last year's 31% and the five-year average of 19%. Hot, dry conditions and early planting have sped things along, with corn harvest expected wrapped in two to three weeks.

🇨🇳 Another Soybean Flash Sale to China – USDA confirmed a fresh sale of 202,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/2027 delivery. See the China soybean purchase tracker below.

🥩 DOJ Widens Beef Antitrust Probe to Retailers – The investigation now covers eight major retailers, including Amazon, Costco, and Walmart, building on the probe Trump launched last November over alleged meatpacker collusion. Beef prices remain stubbornly high as the US cattle herd sits at its lowest level in over 70 years amid drought and rising input costs.

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🌾 Wheat futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 Chicago up ~9¢ to $7.83/bu and Dec26 KC up ~7¢ to $8.45/bu. The move came after Russia rejected a Black Sea attack moratorium, though it also suspended export duties through year-end.

🌽 Corn climbed too, with Dec26 gaining ~8¢ to settle at $5.46/bu on crop yield worries and wheat spillover strength. Funds may have posted a record net long position of 412k contracts — watch for CFTC confirmation Friday!

🫘 Soybeans stole the show, with Nov26 surging nearly 30¢ to $13.18/bu. EPA's reallocation news, continued Chinese buying, and hot/dry weather worries all fueled the rally.

🛢️ Oil prices spiked 5.2% as WTI settled at $90.22/barrel — its highest close since late July — after US airstrikes on Iranian targets reignited Middle East tensions. Diesel hit a 52-week high at $5.63/gallon, way up from $3.69 a year ago.

🔥 Extreme heat is threatening Corn Belt crops this week, with triple-digit temps risking grain fill and stalk quality issues. Purdue's Dan Quinn expects an early harvest with yields landing near average, not a bumper crop or a disaster.

📊 USDA unveiled a plan to modernize ag data collection, leaning on satellite imagery, geospatial tools, and AI to cut duplicate reporting for farmers. Secretary Brooke Rollins says the goal is timelier, more accurate data while protecting producer privacy.

😊 Farmer sentiment rose for a second straight month, with Purdue/CME's Ag Economy Barometer hitting 135 in August, the highest since December 2025. More farmers now expect to be better off financially next year than worse off, for the first time since June 2025.

🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans, with a fresh flash sale of 136,000mt (5 million bushels) for the 2026/2027 marketing year.

🚜 John Deere rolled out an AI assistant called JD in its Operations Center app to help farmers make real-time input decisions. It's free, won't sell farmer data, and rolls out more widely later this year.

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🌾 EPA Small Refinery Exemptions: EPA granted full exemptions to 18 refineries and partial exemptions to 11 out of 34 petitions, covering 1.76 billion RINs for 2025. 📈 The agency plans to reallocate 100% of those credits to larger refiners in 2026-2027, sending soybean oil futures sharply higher.

🌍 Black Sea Grain Talks: Turkey has finalized a plan for safe Black Sea grain shipments and is in talks with both Russia and Ukraine. 📉 The hope for resumed exports pushed wheat futures lower, even as Russian airstrikes continued hitting Odesa and Kyiv overnight.

🚢 Grain Export Inspections: US corn export inspections hit a record high for the week at 1.5mmt, up 13% from the prior week. 📊 Soybean shipments disappointed at just 250,801mt (-42% week-over-week), while wheat came in near the top of expectations.

🌱 Crop Conditions Update: Corn conditions held steady at 57% good-to-excellent, but soybeans slipped for a fourth straight week to 58%. ✅ Spring wheat harvest is running way ahead of schedule at 77% complete, nearly finished in South Dakota and Washington.

💰 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA confirmed a flash sale of 159,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Notably, China was absent from last week's export inspection totals entirely.

🐄 Ranchers First Initiative: USDA unveiled a new program to rebuild the US cow herd, including a heifer retention insurance endorsement and $500 million for meat processing capacity. 🏛️ The plan also adds federal beef purchases for schools and hospitals, plus faster disaster relief access for ranchers.

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🌾 Wheat futures hit a 3+ year high Friday as Dec26 Chicago wheat jumped ~23¢ to $7.84/bu and KC wheat rose ~22¢ to $8.44/bu. Escalating Black Sea military tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep fueling the rally, with Turkey now trying to broker a shipping agreement between the two sides.

🌽 Corn futures also climbed, with Dec26 up 3¢ to $5.37/bu on tight US yield concerns and strong demand. Restricted Ukrainian exports are adding extra support to the market.

🌱 Soybeans joined the rally too, with Nov26 gaining 20¢ to close at $12.88/bu. Fresh flash sales to China and other buyers helped keep momentum going.

📊 CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed big money managers piling into grains last week, buying 136k corn, 49k soybean, and 12k SRW wheat contracts. The corn net long position has surged to an estimated 379k contracts — rare, historically elevated territory for the fund community.

🛢️ The Trump administration struck a major oil deal with Venezuela, gaining US access to 17 oil fields with ~65 billion barrels of potential reserves. The deal could draw $100B in investment, though relief at the pump isn't expected anytime soon given infrastructure and political hurdles.

🥩 Trump also announced plans to let cattle producers process their own beef, aiming to loosen the Big Four meatpackers' grip on the industry. Critics note the move likely won't meaningfully shift the broader beef market and raises food-safety concerns tied to bypassing USDA inspection.

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 Wheat hits a three-year high as Black Sea exports nearly halt amid Russia-Ukraine strikes—Chicago wheat settled near $7.61/bu, KC wheat at $8.22/bu. It's on pace for the biggest monthly gain since Feb 2022, right when the war began.

⛽ Biofuels: The Trump admin is weighing nearly doubling small refinery exemptions (up to 1.8B gallons) to cut fuel prices before the midterms. Farm groups warn it could crush corn and soybean oil demand, though a 2027 biofuel quota bump may help offset it.

☔ Weather markets: Kalshi is partnering with The Weather Company to grow its weather prediction contracts, with volume up 500% YoY toward a $1.1B annualized pace. The bigger play may be farmers using these as a hedge against rainfall and temperature swings.

🇨🇳 China's crops: Extreme heat and flooding are hurting corn and soybean quality, likely boosting demand for imported corn and sorghum. Soybean imports probably won't get the same lift since China's domestic beans go to food, not feed.

🌵 Drought monitor: Corn Belt conditions held mostly steady, though Wisconsin and Minnesota worsened. Corn 27%, soybeans 28%, winter wheat 56%, spring wheat 80%, and cattle 58% are in some level of drought.

📉 Export sales: Corn sales crashed to a marketing-year low of just 31,200mt, down 87% week-over-week. Soybean sales dipped too, but wheat sales rose 2%, with Mexico leading purchases.