Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 CornCorn futures plunged on Monday, with prices down nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day decline since June 2023. The selloff followed a decidedly bearish report from the USDA.The agency raised its estimate of the 2025 U.S. corn crop to a record 17.02 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from the prior forecast. USDA also increased last year’s national average yield to a record 186.5 bpa, up from 186 bpa previously. Many analysts had expected cuts to both production and yield following dry fall conditions, making the revisions a surprise.USDA also boosted December 1 corn stocks to 13.3 billion bushels, the largest Dec. 1 corn stocks on record.🌾 Winter WheatUS winter wheat acreage is expected to decline marginally for the 2026 crop. USDA estimates 33.0 million acres planted, slightly below last year’s 33.2 million acres but above analyst expectations of 32.4 million.Notably, USDA is forecasting record-low winter wheat acres in Nebraska and California.Hard red winter wheat: slightly lower year over yearSoft red winter wheat: modest increaseWhite winter wheat: sharp decline🚜 Farm Policy & AidThe American Farm Bureau Federation is calling for additional farmer aid. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program is welcomed, but falls far short of offsetting tens of billions of dollars in recent farm losses.Duvall is urging:Expanded trade opportunitiesLabor reformYear-round approval of E15, which could boost corn demand and lower fuel costsFarm Bureau supports greater market access for U.S. agriculture while opposing President Trump’s tariffs.🚢 Exports & DemandUS soybean shipments beat expectations last week. USDA reported 1.5 mmt (56 mil bu) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending January 8 — up 55% week over week and up 13% year over year. China accounted for 59% of the total.Corn inspections: 1.5 mmt (59 mil bu), near the upper end of expectationsWheat inspections: 317,465 mt (12 mil bu), sharply higher week over weekUSDA also announced multiple flash sales of corn:204,000 mt to South Korea310,000 mt to unknown destinationsBoth for 2025/26 delivery.🏛️ Macro & MarketsRepublican lawmakers are pushing back against the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell, arguing it could undermine Fed independence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly warned President Donald Trump that the probe could spook financial markets.Trump denied knowledge of the investigation, which comes amid months of pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates further. The controversy could complicate Trump’s efforts to nominate Powell’s successor.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 USDA Reports Preview (Crop Production, WASDE & Grain Stocks)USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, along with the quarterly Grain Stocks report.• Analysts expect a notable decline in US corn production and yield, though both would still be record large• Soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly• US ending stocks for corn and wheat are expected to edge lower• Soybean ending stocks are projected to increase slightly• Corn exports are forecast at record highs• Soybean exports are expected to decline amid slow sales to China• World ending stocks are expected to remain largely unchanged🇨🇳 China Buys More US SoybeansChina purchased at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday for April–May shipment.• At least eight cargoes will ship from the US Gulf• The remainder will ship from the PNW• The deal follows another 10-cargo purchase earlier in the week by Sinograin• Several smaller flash sales were also reported last weekDespite the recent buying, traders remain uncertain about if and when the soybeans will ultimately ship.🚢 USDA Flash Sale UpdateUSDA reported a flash sale of 198,000mt (7 mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.• Accumulated US soybean sales are down 29% vs. last year🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Harvest BeginsBrazil’s soybean harvest is underway and running ahead of normal.• 0.53% harvested vs. a five-year average of 0.39%• Only 0.05% was harvested at this time last year• Warm, dry weather is expected to persistBoth Conab and USDA are projecting a record Brazilian soybean crop.📊 CFTC Fund PositioningFor the week ending January 6:• Funds were net buyers of corn• Net sellers of soybeans (continuing a large liquidation trend)• Net sellers of SRW wheat💳 Trump Calls for Credit Card Rate CapPresident Trump is calling for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, down from current rates near 20%.• Banks warn the move could reduce credit availability• Riskier borrowers could face credit line cuts, higher fees, or larger minimum payments• Proposal could take effect as early as January 20Shares of some credit card companies were lower this morning, with Capital One down about 2.5%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE PreviewUSDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, alongside the quarterly Grain Stocks report. Analysts are expecting a notable decline in U.S. corn production and yield, while soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly. U.S. ending stocks for corn and wheat are projected to edge lower, while soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly. World-ending stocks are forecast to remain mostly unchanged, except for wheat, where a sizable increase is anticipated.📉 2026 Corn Price OutlookAmple global corn supplies are expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026. University of Missouri Extension ag economist Ben Brown expects U.S. corn acreage to fall to 95 million acres this year as farmers respond to tight margins. Even with fewer acres, last year’s record corn crop continues to weigh on prices. Brown sees limited upside unless a major South American weather event hits yields—and even then, any rally is likely to be short-lived. Ethanol demand remains a bright spot, and finalized biofuel regulations could provide additional support. Ultimately, meaningful price improvement will require reduced global production.🚢 Weekly Export SalesU.S. corn export sales were weak last week. For the week ending January 1, net corn sales hit a marketing-year low at 377,600 mt (15 million bushels), down 49% from the previous week and 76% below the prior four-week average. South Korea was the top buyer. Despite the poor weekly number, accumulated corn sales remain 30% above last year.Net soybean sales totaled 877,900 mt (32 million bushels), down 26% week-over-week and 42% below the four-week average. China accounted for roughly half of total sales.Net wheat sales came in at 118,700 mt (4 million bushels), below expectations for the second straight week. Sales were up 24% from last week but down 55% from the four-week average. The Philippines was the largest buyer.🐄 Cattle Markets & Screwworm UpdateNew World screwworm cases in Mexico have dropped sharply in recent weeks. Mexico’s ag ministry reports cases are down 57% since mid-December, with 492 active cases concentrated in a handful of states. Construction of a sterile-fly breeding facility in southern Mexico is roughly halfway complete and is expected to begin operations in the first half of this year. Despite improvement, three cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas near the Texas border since late December. The ongoing border closure, in place since May 2025, continues to tighten feeder cattle supplies and push cattle prices to record highs.🌱 China Soybean Flash SaleUSDA reported a soybean flash sale on Thursday. U.S. exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. China has now completed more than 80% of its 12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase agreement.🌡️ Drought Monitor UpdateUSDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt following a warm, dry winter. About 37% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing some level of drought, up from 29% at this time last year. The High Plains also saw temperatures well above normal—some areas running as much as 15°F above average—resulting in the driest start to winter on record in parts of the region.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Grain MarketsSoybean futures rallied on Wednesday, with the Mar26 contract jumping nearly 11 cents to settle around $10.67. The move was driven by renewed Chinese demand, including reports that Sinograin purchased multiple U.S. soybean cargoes, plus a confirmed flash sale to China earlier this week. Corn and wheat futures also closed higher.🥩 New U.S. Dietary GuidelinesUpdated U.S. dietary guidelines place a stronger emphasis on protein intake and full-fat dairy, while discouraging ultra-processed foods, added sugars, and refined carbs. The new guidance calls for protein at every meal and higher daily intake levels than previously recommended. Unlike past guidelines, there’s less focus on plant-based proteins or whole grains. The American Heart Association pushed back, warning of potential cardiovascular risks tied to higher consumption of red meat, salt, and full-fat dairy.🌽 Ethanol UpdateU.S. ethanol production declined modestly last week, while ethanol stocks increased. Despite the production dip, margins remain solid across much of the Corn Belt, with many plants still running comfortably in positive territory based on current corn, DDG, and input prices.🏠 Housing & Interest RatesMortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year. Lower borrowing costs have boosted both home purchase activity and refinancing interest, with buyers responding quickly to improved affordability.🏘️ Institutional Home Buying DebatePresident Trump proposed banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes as part of a broader housing affordability push. Markets reacted negatively, though economists note institutional investors own only a small share of the total housing stock. Critics warn the policy could reduce housing supply and potentially worsen affordability rather than improve it.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🍭 Sugar, Diet Guidelines & Corn DemandThe Trump administration is expected to advise Americans to cut back on sugar consumption under the new Dietary Guidelines set for release later this week. Americans—especially children—will be encouraged to consume no more than 10 grams of added sugar per meal. The guidelines are also expected to push lower consumption of highly processed foods and encourage higher daily protein intake.The existing recommendation limiting saturated fat to no more than 10% of daily calories is expected to remain unchanged. One challenge could be implementation in schools, as many cafeterias aren’t equipped to prepare meals from scratch.Corn plays a major role here. In 2023, added sugars—including high-fructose corn syrup and glucose/dextrose—accounted for roughly 770 million bushels of corn demand, or about 5.3% of total U.S. corn usage. 🌱 China Buys U.S. SoybeansUSDA reported a soybean flash sale on Tuesday, with exporters selling 336,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.According to traders, China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased roughly 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mt (22 million bushels) for shipment between March and May. Estimates suggest China’s total U.S. purchases are now nearing 10 mmt, representing more than 80% of the reported 12 mmt purchase agreement.Additional flash sales may be reported today given ongoing trade chatter. 🚢 Brazil Export UpdateBrazil’s soybean exports hit a record high in 2025, according to shipping agency Cargonave. Shipments rose 11.7% year over year to 108.68 mmt, driven by a record harvest and surging Chinese demand.Soybean meal exports also reached a record 23.1 mmt, while corn exports totaled 41.7 mmt, up nearly 11% from last year. Brazil is once again projected to produce a record soybean crop in the coming season. 🚜 Farmer Sentiment SlipsU.S. farmer sentiment declined modestly in December. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 136, down slightly from November. The drop was driven by weaker long-term expectations, while near-term sentiment held steadier.Trade policy remains a major concern. Nearly one-fifth of farmers said they’re uncertain how tariffs will affect the ag economy long-term. Competition from Brazil continues to weigh heavily on soybean outlooks. Still, three-quarters of respondents believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction—the highest reading since the question was introduced. 📈 Stocks, Oil & VenezuelaU.S. equity markets rallied Tuesday despite geopolitical uncertainty. The Dow Jones climbed to a new record above 49,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs.Markets appear to view recent U.S.–Venezuela developments as modestly bullish for oil supply. Late Tuesday, President Trump announced Venezuela would turn over 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. In response, WTI crude fell to $56.25 per barrel.