China Buys US Soybeans... Then Switches Back to Brazil
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌎 China’s Soybean ShuffleChina booked 20 Brazilian soybean cargoes—half for December, the rest for March–July—as Brazil undercuts US Gulf prices again.Traders still expect US purchases under the truce, but the market wants official tariff news from Beijing.US futures rallied anyway—Jan26 +19¢ to $11.34, the highest since July.The rumor mill says more US deals behind closed doors. 👀🚢 Export Check: Soybeans Weak, Corn HotUS soybean inspections: 965K mt—down hard from last week and last year 😬China is still absent.Corn? 🔥 Big week—1.7 mmt, up sharply vs. last year.Wheat is also stronger YoY.🇨🇳 China Looks at US Wheat AgainChina sniffing around SRW/HRW cargoes for Dec–Feb.Traders call it goodwill buying more than economics.Wheat futures pop—Dec25 closes near $5.44, the best in 3 months.🌱 Brazil Planting LagsHeat + dryness slowing planting: 47% vs 54% last year.Some replant risk.StoneX tweaks the outlook:• Beans slightly higher at 178.9mmt• Second corn crop cut to 107mmt🇺🇸 US Harvest Almost WrappedAnalysts peg harvest at:• Corn 83% (vs 91% last year)• Soybeans 91% (vs 94%)Dry weather helped.Still no crop progress reports during the shutdown—but WASDE/Prod is still coming Nov 14.📊 StoneX US Yield Update• Corn: 186 bpa—slight bump• Beans: 53.6 bpa—trimmedUS production is essentially steady vs last month.
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Is This REALLY a Win for Farmers? USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on China, Payments & Policy
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTube🎙️ Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! 🌾This week we sit down with USDA Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins for a big-time conversation on the future of American agriculture and global trade. Strap in—this one hits all the hot topics 👇🇨🇳 US/China “Trade Deal” & Soybean PurchasesWhat does the new agreement really mean for US farmers?Will China step up for big-volume soybean buys again — or is the market over-hyping it? 🌱🚢🌟 “Golden Era of Agriculture”?President Trump says US agriculture is entering a Golden Era — Brooke breaks down what that means for:Farm incomeGlobal demandExport competitivenessLong-term policy visionIs it optimism… or reality coming fast? 💪🌽✨💸 Direct Farm Payments & Input CostsWe talk:Future support programsInput inflation pressures (seed, fertilizer, fuel)Policy responses to farm margins getting squeezed🇲🇽 Border, Beef & Feeder CattleHow does the southern border tie into livestock markets? And what’s the real story on:Mexican border flowsFeeder cattle pricesBeef import potentialU.S. herd rebuilding timeline 🐂📈🏢 USDA Workforce CutsYep—layoffs. Why the shake-up, and what farmers should expect going forward.
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Will China REALLY Buy 440 MILLION Bushels of US Soybeans in the next 3 Months??
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.✅ Welcome back — today we’re breaking down China’s long-term soybean commitment and what it really means for US farmers. 🌱🇺🇸🇨🇳🌍 Global Market & Trade 🌐China agreed to resume long-term US soybean buying under the new Trump-Xi trade truce:12mmt through January25mmt annually for 3 yearsRemoval of tariffs on most US ag goodsThis is below the 29mmt average over the past 5 years—but far better than the “zero-buy” fear.Chinese state media confirmed ag buys — but not the exact volumes Bessent mentioned.ASA reaction:✅ Positive tone✅ Relief after stalled demand✅ Optimism for future growthAlso—both countries will pause vessel fees for 12 months, easing $3.2B in shipping pressure.Soybeans rallied on the announcement 👇Jan26: +13¢ to ~$11.08/buCorn slipped lowerDec25: down ~4¢ to ~$4.30No corn commitments in this agreement + USDA reports paused by shutdown = headwindsWheat lowerDec Chicago: -8¢ near $5.24📝 Key TakeawayThis deal is not a blockbuster, but it does restore baseline demand and boosts confidence after months of uncertainty.Markets like it. Farmers like it.And it beats the alternative. ✔️🌦️ Weather & Crop ConditionsUS drought conditions were mostly steady this week.Some relief in parts of KY/OH/MI, but dryness worsened in IA & IL.High Plains remains least impacted; mixed changes in the Dakotas & the Southern Plains.Corn impacted by drought: 30%Soybeans: 34%Winter wheat: 40%Cattle areas in drought: 26%
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"Don't Call it a Trade Deal" - Soybean Prices Fall Following Trump/Xi "Truce"
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌦️ Macro & PolicyPresident Trump says talks with Xi were “12 out of 10” and announced tariff cuts tied to fentanyl cooperation. China says they reached consensus on fentanyl and agricultural trade, but no actual volume numbers yet.Trump jumped on Truth Social claiming China will buy “massive amounts” of U.S. farm goods — and even told farmers to go buy more land and bigger tractors 🚜😂Policy headline? ✅Actual commitments? 🤷♂️🌾 Grains & China BuyingCOFCO reportedly bought three cargoes of U.S. soybeans, but markets barely moved. Traders want to see follow-through, not headlines.Soybean bulls: 🤝 Hope & prayerFutures: 🥱 Neutral to slightly lowerUntil we see more sales, the market remains cautious.🐄 Cattle & Border NewsU.S.–Mexico border stays closed to feeder cattle as officials work to eradicate the screwworm outbreak.$21M U.S. investment in sterile fly programNo timeline for reopeningCattle futures liked the news — big rally Wednesday.⛽ Ethanol UpdateEthanol output dipped slightly on the week but remains strong vs last year, with margins running 10–40¢ positive across the Corn Belt. Stocks rose slightly.Margins holding firm = supportive for corn demand.🇧🇷 Brazil Crop OutlookRabobank expects a record Brazilian soybean crush and higher acreage, but stable exports.Corn acreage is up too—but production is seen down ~3.5%.Brazil keeps expanding. No surprise 😬🌎🌱💵 Interest Rates & MacroThe Fed cut rates again—the second time this year—taking the benchmark to 3.75%–4%.Powell pushing back on a “cut every meeting” approach.Markets now see a 67% chance of another cut in December (down from ~90%).The government shutdown still limiting data flow—fun times 🙃
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China FINALLY Buys US Soybeans + Joe Gets GHOSTED by Brooke Rollins
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China Buys U.S. Soybeans for the First Time This Marketing Year🌦 Market HighlightsChina has purchased U.S. soybeans for the first time this marketing year. Reuters reports that state-owned COFCO bought three cargoes (≈180,000 mt / 6.6 mil bu) for Dec–Jan shipment ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea. U.S. beans remain about 50¢/bu cheaper than Brazilian beans for November export.🌾 Futures ActionSoybean futures hit their highest level in over a year Tuesday. The Jan 26 contract reached $11.00 before easing to around $10.95 on profit-taking and increased farmer selling. Corn and wheat also advanced—Dec 25 corn closed near $4.32/bu, its best since early July.🏛 Washington WatchThe U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing on seed and fertilizer market concentration. Four companies now control 80% of corn seed and 75% of soybean seed sales. The American Soybean Association warned that farmers face mounting pressure as production costs surge and prices fall—soybean producers could see net losses of $109/acre this year.🤝 Global Trade & PolicyThe U.S. and Japan signed two agreements Tuesday—one strengthening the alliance, another on rare-earth supply chains. Despite the fanfare, key trade gaps remain. Japan already imports roughly $12 billion in U.S. ag products annually, including corn, beef, pork, and soybeans, suggesting its new $8 billion annual commitment likely reflects normal volumes.🐄 Livestock PressureFeeder cattle futures fell sharply again as President Trump vowed to lower beef prices. Since his Argentine beef import proposal, feeder cattle have dropped nearly $50/cwt amid speculation of resumed Mexican imports and tariff cuts on Brazilian beef.🌽 Ethanol & EnergyIndia continues to block U.S. ethanol imports despite U.S. pressure in ongoing trade talks. India blends about 2.6 billion gal/year of ethanol domestically and protects its farmers’ $13 billion in feedstock income—making ethanol policy a major sticking point.
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