US to FINALLY Ship Soybeans to China + Farm Aid Package Update
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳🚢 China to Resume Shipments of US Soybeans & SorghumTwo Chinese vessels are scheduled to arrive at grain terminals near New Orleans this week to load US soybeans—the first such shipments since May. Another vessel is expected in Corpus Christi next week to load sorghum, marking the first sorghum shipment to China since March.These movements follow increased Chinese purchasing after the late-October trade truce in South Korea. According to the Trump administration, China has agreed to buy 12mmt of US soybeans by January and 25mmt annually over the next three years. China has not yet officially confirmed the deal.🌱📈 Fresh US Soybean Sales to ChinaChina resumed buying on Monday. USDA reported:• 123,000mt (5 million bushels) sold for 2025/26• 1.92mmt (71 million bushels) purchased so far in NovemberWith 25 business days left in 2025, China must average 402,440mt/day to hit the targeted 12mmt.🚢🌎 US Export Inspections (Week Ending Nov 20)Soybeans:• 799,042mt (29mb)• Down 34% vs. last week, down 62% vs. last year—still disappointingCorn:• 1.6mmt (64mb)• Down 21% from last week but up 62% vs. last yearWheat:• 474,530mt (17mb)• Up 92% vs. last week and up 30% vs. last year📞🇺🇸 Trump–Xi Phone CallPresident Trump says the call covered Chinese purchases of US soybeans and other ag goods. He described the trade truce as a “great deal” for US farmers. China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said all elements of the agreement are being implemented.The two leaders agreed to meet in person—first in April in Beijing, then later in the US.💵🚜 More Farmer Aid ExpectedUSDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says details of the long-discussed farmer assistance package will be released within the next two weeks. The Farm Bureau welcomed the update, calling aid “urgently needed.”Rollins also indicated that China will formally confirm its soybean purchase commitments within the next few weeks.🌧️🌽 China Corn Market: Prices Hit 2-Month HighChinese corn futures have rallied due to:• Excessive rains damaging crops in major northern regions• Slow farmer selling• Government import restrictions keeping foreign corn outThrough October, China’s corn imports totaled less than 1mmt, down 93% from last year.
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"Corn Piles in the Parking Lot" - Storage Crunch Hits Wisconsin and Elsewhere
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Record Wisconsin Corn Crop + Storage CrunchWisconsin is harvesting a record corn crop, with many farmers reporting yields 20–30 bushels above previous highs.Grain elevators across the state are full or overflowing, forcing coops to pile millions of bushels outside on the ground.United Cooperative near Appleton is moving grain out by rail as fast as possible.Some farmers are turning to grain bagging because space is so tight.Slow soybean sales are tying up even more storage as producers wait for better prices.USDA pegs Wisconsin’s 2025 state yield at a record 183 bpa.Other states — Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, South Dakota — also posted record yields.Western Corn Belt basis is weak, while basis in many eastern areas is stronger than normal.🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting UpdateConsulting group Patria Agronegocios estimates Brazil’s soybean planting at 80% complete vs 83% last year.Still ahead of the 75% five-year average.Irregular rainfall has caused localized delays and could affect yields.Mato Grosso is nearly done — about 98% planted.🐂 Cattle on Feed Report — Bullish Across the BoardAs of Nov 1: 11.7M head, down 2% YoY — in line with expectations.Placements: 2.04M head → down 10% and the lowest since 1996 for October.Marketings: 1.7M head → down 8%, matching expectations.Market should view this as bullish, though volatility could mute reaction.Heifer retention still shows no major herd rebuilding.🏭 Tyson Closing Major Nebraska Beef PlantTyson will close one of its largest beef plants in Lexington, NE — processing 5,000 head/day.Roughly 3,000 jobs impacted.Amarillo, TX plant will shrink from two shifts to one, affecting ~1,700 workers.Changes take effect by end of January.Tyson reported $2B higher cattle costs in FY2025 vs prior year.💵 Macroeconomy: Shutdown Cost + Bessent OutlookThe government shutdown cost the US economy $11B.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic about 2026 growth.Says easing interest rates and tax cuts will help, and doesn’t see the broader economy at risk.Shutdown expected to cut Q4 growth in half → now 1.5%–2% expected.
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Farm Financial Stress/Bankruptcies Build + China Buys MORE Soybeans
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌦️ Weather & Drought UpdateMost of the Corn Belt stayed dry last week. Drought intensified in eastern IA/IL, northern MN, and big portions of WI.• Illinois: 74% in drought, 4.5% extreme• High Plains: Warm & dry; worsening in eastern NE & southern OKUS Areas in Drought: Corn 32% • Soybeans 33% • Winter Wheat 41% • Spring Wheat 18% • Cattle 33%💰 Farm Financial StressThree straight years of falling profits have pushed the Midwest into a financial crunch.• Iowa bankruptcies doubled vs last year• U.S. bankruptcies up nearly 60% YoY, mostly Chapter 12• Only 48% of Corn Belt farmers expected to turn a profit in 2026 (down from 52%)Some analysts now compare this downturn to the 1980s Farm Crisis.🚢 China Purchases & Export SalesFlash Sales Thursday:• 462,000mt soybeans → China (25/26 MY)• 132,000mt white wheat → China (25/26 MY)• China has now bought 1.8mmt US soybeans since Nov 1 for current MYBrazil & Argentina Shipments:• Brazil → 7.1mmt to China in Oct (+29% YoY)• Argentina → 1.6mmt (+15% YoY)• U.S. → 0mtChina imported a record 9.5mmt of soybeans in October but has recently ramped up US buying, covering ~15% of its truce commitment.📦 Export Sales SnapshotCorn: 2.3mmt — up 62%, Japan biggest buyerSoybeans: 919,400mt — up 6%, Egypt biggest buyerWheat: 887,900mt — up 181%, Mexico biggest buyer🐂 Cattle MarketsCattle futures sold off sharply again Thursday on fund pressure and lower cash. Fundamentals remain strong, but technicals continue to dominate.• Trump is pushing lower beef prices• Today’s Cattle on Feed expected to be bullish• Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef—likely increases imports & pressures prices further
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Farmers Already Sold!! Trump Admin is TOO SLOW with Trade, Aid, etc.
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸 Farm Aid UpdateThe Trump administration is expected to announce additional farmer assistance in early December. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the aid is likely coming during the first week of the month. Details remain limited. The package was originally planned for this fall but delayed by the government shutdown.Farmers continue to face pressure from inflation, policy uncertainty, and trade-related disruptions. Even with the uptick in Chinese soybean buying, the administration believes more support is necessary heading into next planting season.🇨🇳 China Soybean PurchasesUSDA reported another flash sale to China on Wednesday:• 330,000mt (≈12 million bushels) sold• China has now purchased 1.4mmt (≈50 million bushels) in recent weeksThere are 29 business days left before Jan 1. To hit the 12mmt target the White House outlined, China would need to average 367,103mt (13.5 million bu) per day.Rumors point to 4–5 additional cargoes sold yesterday that may show up in today’s reporting.🌱 2026 Acreage Outlook (S&P Global)S&P Global’s monthly survey points to:• Corn acres down to 95 million (–3.8%)• Soybean acres up to 84.5 million (+4%)• All wheat acres down to 44 million (–2.9%)🛢️ Biofuel Credit Cuts May Be DelayedThe administration is weighing a 1–2 year delay in cutting biofuel import credits.• Cuts were scheduled for Jan 1• Would have reduced RIN credits earned by imported biofuels/inputs• Refiners warn cuts could tighten fuel supplies and raise pricesEPA is reviewing comments and will finalize rules in the coming months.Soybean oil futures dropped more than 2% on the headline.🍺 Ethanol Production & MarginsUS ethanol output increased to 1.09M barrels/day last week (+1.5% WoW).Stocks climbed to 22.31M barrels, slightly higher on the week and year.Margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from +5 to +35 cents depending on plant and input mix.📉 CFTC Commitment of TradersCFTC released its first COT data since reopening:• Corn: Funds sold 32k → net short now 129k• Soybeans: Funds sold 7k → net short now 32k• SRW Wheat: Funds bought 1k → net short trimmed to 96kCFTC expects to be fully current again by late January.
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Higher Soybean Prices = NO FARM AID? Here's What We Know...
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🤝 Trade Deals & Farmer Aid OutlookRecent trade agreements may impact the likelihood of additional farmer assistance. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says market conditions have shifted since aid discussions began earlier this fall. New trade deals with China, Pakistan, and Japan have led to significant purchase commitments for U.S. commodities.Back in early October, the Trump administration was considering at least $10B in farmer aid, modeled after the previous Market Facilitation Program, which paid out $23B during the China trade war.Vaden quote:“The entire goal of any program should be to provide a bridge to 2026 and to reflect current market conditions, which thankfully have improved. Soybean prices are at 15-month highs… but we will need to take that new data into account as we measure the amount of aid that we can and should provide.”🚢 Big USDA Flash Sale to ChinaUSDA reported a 792,000mt (29M bushel) soybean sale to China on Tuesday. Combined with last week’s 232,000mt flash sale, China has now purchased roughly 1mmt (38M bushels) of U.S. soybeans in recent weeks.Yesterday’s announcement confirmed Monday’s rumored sales — and in classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” fashion, the market peaked right before confirmation. More flash sales later this week wouldn’t be surprising.📊 CFTC Data Returns TodayThe CFTC will resume publishing Commitment of Traders reports today for the first time since the late-September report. The shutdown limited data availability and discouraged large speculative positioning.This afternoon’s release will cover data originally scheduled for October 3.Private estimates heading into yesterday’s close:Funds short 50k cornLong 150k soybeansShort 60k SRW wheatCFTC won’t be fully caught up until late January—a frustrating delay in an era where this should take a week.🚜 Crop Progress UpdateUSDA released its first crop progress report since reopening:Corn: 91% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 94% avg.). Nebraska only 74% vs 97% last year.Soybeans: 95% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 96% avg.). LA, MN, and SD are finished.Winter Wheat: 45% good/excellent (49% last year, slightly above 44% avg).🌧️ Argentina Flooding Delays PlantingFlooding is delaying corn and soybean planting in parts of Argentina. Roughly 1.5M hectares (3.7M acres) are at high risk of becoming unusable after months of heavy rain. Poor drainage and rural road conditions have worsened the situation.Argentina is the world’s top soybean meal & oil exporter and the #3 corn exporter. USDA expects 24M hectares (59.3M acres) of combined corn/soy area this season—meaning about 6% of total area is at risk.
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