Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 USDA Slashes Corn & Soybean Yields—The USDA cut its 2026/27 corn yield to 180.7 bpa and soybean yield to 52.7 bpa, both below trade expectations. Higher planted acreage still pushed total production estimates above July's forecasts for both crops. 📊

🌾 Wheat Crop Stays Historically Small—USDA held its wheat production estimate at 1.53 billion bushels, marking the smallest US crop in 56 years. The report came with a much-improved 62.7% survey response rate. 📉

🚀 Grain Futures Rally on the Report — Corn futures jumped ~20 cents to settle near $4.81/bu, its best close since late July, while soybeans gained ~15 cents to $11.83/bu. Wheat rode the wave higher too, with Chicago and Kansas City contracts both up over 20 cents. 💰

🌱 Prevented Plantings Drop Sharply—Corn prevented plant acres fell 25% and soybeans plunged 56% from last year, while wheat prevented plantings rose 31%. Overall, corn and wheat acreage declined while soybean acreage expanded roughly 7%. 📐

⛈️ Severe Storms Batter the Corn Belt—Winds up to 100 mph, tornadoes, and flooding rains of 8–10 inches swept through the region, knocking out power for hundreds of thousands. Early damage reports appear localized, but more storms are expected through the week. ⚡

🇨🇳 China Books Another Soybean Flash Sale—US exporters sold 244,000mt of soybeans to China ahead of Xi Jinping's expected Washington visit next month. Most buying is coming from state traders, while private importers stay sidelined due to tariffs and weak commercial viability. 🚢

🇧🇷 Brazilian Farmers Face Rising Bankruptcies — Agribusiness bankruptcy filings jumped 22% year-over-year in Q1, led by soybean and cattle producers. Corporate farm filings surged nearly 74% amid higher costs and tighter credit. 💸

⛽ Ethanol Output & Margins Stay Strong — US ethanol production rose 1% week-over-week to 1.12 million barrels per day, with stocks hitting an 11-week high. Corn Belt margins remain solidly positive, ranging from 15 to 45 cents. 🔥

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🌩️ Severe storms tore through the Corn Belt Tuesday, spawning tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana and knocking out power to nearly a million people. Parts of Indiana and Ohio saw 6"+ of rain in 24 hours, and more stormy weather is expected through the week.

🌾 Russian August wheat exports could hit a 10-year low as Sovecon slashes its forecast to 3-3.4mmt amid Black Sea shipping disruptions. Ukraine's exports are also sinking, down 76% in August y/y, after drone strikes suspended operations at two major Novorossiysk grain terminals.

📡 The USDA is overhauling NASS crop reporting, tapping Kip Tom to modernize a system plagued by falling survey response rates. The plan leans on satellite imagery, drones, and machine-generated data to eventually deliver faster, more frequent (and more accurate) corn and soybean estimates.

📊 The USDA's Crop Production and WASDE report drops Wednesday at 11am CST, with traders expecting cuts to corn and soybean yields after a hot, dry July. This is the first report to incorporate actual survey data, and both new crop US and world carryout estimates are expected to shrink.

🚢 USDA confirmed fresh flash sales Tuesday, with 136,000mt of soybeans sold to China and 180,000mt of soybean meal sold to the Philippines. Both deals are set for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year.

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🌽 Ultra-Processed Foods Definition Delayed? The food industry is pushing the Trump administration to delay its ultra-processed foods definition, warning it could raise costs and spark litigation. 🏛️ Despite pushback, officials say the definition is still moving forward—just with uncertain timing.

📉 DTN Yield Models Point Lower DTN's Digital Yield Tour pegs national corn yield at 178.5 bpa and soybeans at 52.1 bpa, both below USDA's estimates. 🌾 If it holds, US corn production could fall 8-9% from last year.

📊 USDA WASDE Report Wednesday USDA releases its Crop Production and WASDE report Wednesday at 11am CST, with traders expecting cuts to corn and soybean yields. ⏳ It's the first report to incorporate actual survey data this season.

🌱 Crop Conditions: Mixed corn ratings held steady at 61% good-to-excellent, while soybeans slipped to 62%. ☀️ Spring wheat conditions worsened too, though winter wheat harvest is now 91% complete.

💹 Grain Markets Await Report: Soybeans edged higher, and corn stayed flat as traders sat on the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's data. 🌊 Wheat saw modest gains despite Black Sea shipping concerns, with weak demand still the bigger focus.

🚜 Farmers Push for Transparency & E15 Minnesota Corn Growers' Todd Wentzel says the Fertilizer Transparency Act could ease farmers' input costs. ⛽ With E15 now in the farm bill, year-round sales could be a big win for farm profitability.

🔥 Europe's Fifth Heat Wave Triple-digit temps are scorching France and England as Europe faces its fifth heat wave, worsening drought along the Rhine and Danube. 💶 Losses are already estimated at $1.7 billion, with roughly 9mmt of crops destroyed.

🚢 US Export Inspections Strong Corn export inspections hit 1.7mmt for the week, up 14% year-over-year despite a weekly dip. 🇨🇳 China reappeared in the data for the first time in three weeks.

⚡ Flash Sale Alert USDA reported a new flash sale of 105,000mt of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/2026 delivery. 📈 Total corn sales for the marketing year are now running 23% ahead of last year's pace.

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🌾 Ukraine grain exports could plunge as Russian attacks on Odesa disrupt Black Sea shipments, with the ag ministry slashing its export estimate 54% to 29.6mmt. 📦 Storage bins could be full by November, leaving an 11mmt shortfall as alternative routes through Romania can't fully replace Odesa's capacity.

📈 Wheat futures bounced back Friday, with Chicago Sep26 up nearly 9 cents to $6.40/bu and KC Sep26 up 14 cents to $7.14/bu on a weaker dollar and Black Sea worries. 🌽 Corn held mostly steady while soybeans slipped despite China ramping up US purchases, with traders positioning ahead of Wednesday's USDA report.

🌧️ This week's forecast looks favorable for the Corn Belt, with rain chances across the central and eastern regions offering relief from recent heat. The hot, dry western Corn Belt should trend cooler and wetter by week's end, though rainfall may stay uneven in spots.

💰 CFTC data shows managed money added 18k corn contracts for the week ending August 4, pushing the net long to 145k contracts, the biggest since late May. 📉 Funds were net sellers of 28k soybean contracts and 17k SRW wheat contracts on the week.

🛳️ USDA flash sales Friday: 238,000mt (9mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇲🇽 Corn sales to Mexico totaled 286,097mt (11mil bu), split between the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 marketing years.

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🌽🔥 North Dakota Drought & Crops — North Dakota is baking through a hot, dry July with record triple-digit heat and worsening drought, and it's hitting crops hard: corn dropped to 50% good-to-excellent (from 61%) and soybeans fell to 46% (from 52%). Relief may be on the way, with better rain chances and more seasonal temps expected in August. 🌾

🗺️ US Drought Monitor Update — Heavy rain eased drought across parts of the Corn Belt (central/NW Indiana, SE Kentucky, N Illinois, NW Minnesota, SE Wisconsin), but dry pockets in Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois saw conditions worsen. The Plains stayed hot, with drought deepening in North Dakota, western Nebraska, central Kansas, and eastern Oklahoma despite some relief in the Dakotas/Nebraska. 🌵

📈 Grain Futures Recap — Corn (Dec26) ticked up 2¢ to $4.62/bu on short covering, though Corn Belt rain forecasts kept a lid on gains. Soybeans (Nov26) climbed 3¢ to $11.78/bu on fresh Chinese demand, while wheat slipped despite Black Sea shipping uncertainty. 💹

🇨🇳🫘 China Soybean Buying Spree — China snapped up another 122,000mt of US soybeans for 2026/27 delivery, bringing its flash-sale total to ~2.5mmt over the past month. Buying is ramping up ahead of Xi Jinping's expected US visit, with chatter that sorghum and barley purchases could be next. 🤝

📦 US Export Sales — Corn sales tumbled to a marketing-year low of 116,700mt, down 68% week-over-week, with South Korea leading purchases. Soybean sales also hit a marketing-year low at just 32,200mt (Indonesia the top buyer), while wheat held steadier at 296,400mt led by the Philippines. 🚢