Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚁 Drone Industry ShockA new ban on Chinese-made drones is sending shockwaves through the U.S. drone industry.On Monday, the FCC banned drones and critical components manufactured in certain foreign countries, citing national security risks. The restrictions primarily target Chinese manufacturers—including DJI, which controls an estimated 70–90% of the U.S. drone market.The ban does not apply to drones already purchased or currently sitting in stores, though the FCC has left the door open to expanding restrictions to older models in the future.U.S. officials have long warned that Chinese-made drones could allow data access or interference by the Chinese government. Drone pilots and ag operators warn that under the new rules, many businesses may only have a few years left.🌽 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Edition)USDA released another outdated, catch-up Export Sales report on Tuesday.Soybeans: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, up sharply from the prior weekChina was the top buyer, accounting for 58% of total salesCorn: Solid sales near the high end of expectations at 1.7 mmtJapan was the largest buyerWheat: Sales totaled 432,600 mt, with Mexico leading purchasesOfficial U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 5.4 mmt, though real-time estimates suggest the total could be closer to 7–8 mmt.USDA says Export Sales reports will be fully current by January 8th.🌱 Grain Market UpdateSoybean futures edged lower Tuesday.The Jan ’26 contract slipped slightly, as traders remain cautious about the pace of Chinese buying and the looming pressure from another record Brazilian soybean crop.While the market often sees a year-end rally, bearish fundamentals continue to cap upside.🇺🇸 U.S. Economy UpdateThe U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years during the third quarter.GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3%, beating expectations. Growth was driven mainly by strong consumer spending, along with higher exports and government spending.Notably, analysts pointed out that rising healthcare costs accounted for a meaningful share of Q3 GDP growth.🥇 Precious Metals ExplosionPrecious metals ripped to record highs on Tuesday.Silver surged past $70/ozGold climbed above $4,490/ozPlatinum and palladium also moved sharply higherThe rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, expectations for U.S. rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong investment demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🏛️ USDA Workforce Cuts & Data QualityThe US Department of Agriculture saw a massive workforce reduction in the first half of the year. Between January and June, more than 20,000 employees left the agency—about 18% of total staff.Most departures were tied to the Trump administration’s voluntary resignation program, which offered up to six months’ pay. Over 15,000 employees accepted the program, while roughly 2,000 resigned and about 1,300 retired.The National Agricultural Statistics Service was hit especially hard, losing more than one-third of its workforce. DTN reported that NASS alone lost 275 employees—about 34% of staff—during the first six months of the year.A USDA Office of Inspector General report shows that another 4,200 employees left between June and October. While USDA says it continues to hire for critical roles and refocus on a “farmer-first” mission, some recent USDA data issues are likely tied to severe understaffing.🚢 Weekly Export InspectionsUS soybean shipments were weak last week, landing near the low end of expectations. USDA reported soybean inspections at 870,199 mt, up from the prior week but sharply lower versus last year. About 44% of shipments were headed to China.Corn shipments were strong, coming in at 1.7 mmt, well above last year. Wheat shipments also beat expectations at 627,443 mt.Soybean shipments to China totaled 386,010 mt. Only one cargo moved through the PNW, with the rest shipped out of the Gulf.🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop OutlookAgRural raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180.4 mmt, well above last season and above USDA’s forecast. Crop conditions have been favorable so far, and harvest has begun in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso.Conab is forecasting production slightly lower, but still historically large. Yield potential will depend heavily on weather in the months ahead.🌍 Wheat Market & Black Sea TensionsWheat futures moved higher amid escalating Black Sea tensions. Russia increased attacks near Ukraine’s Odesa region, while Ukraine struck Russia’s port of Taman. The disruption risks pushed Chicago wheat futures higher on the session.📢 USDA Flash Sales & Export SalesUSDA reported another flash sale of soybeans to China, with most of the volume booked for the 2025/26 marketing year.Export sales data showed strong soybean sales, led by China, while corn and wheat sales came in lower week-to-week. The report was part of USDA’s ongoing catch-up releases.💰 Gold & Macro MarketsGold surged to a new record above $4,400 per ounce, supported by geopolitical risk and expectations for interest rate cuts next year. Rising global tensions and uncertainty continue to drive safe-haven demand. Silver prices also moved sharply higher.👍 If you find this helpful, hit like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments.🌾 Staying informed matters—especially right now.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 USDA Farm Aid UpdateThe USDA confirmed it has no plans for additional farm assistance beyond the recently announced $12 billion aid package.Farmers continue to face weak markets, high input costs, and trade disruptions tied to President Trump’s tariffs.Estimated farm losses could reach $44 billion this year, far exceeding available aid.USDA acknowledged the shortfall but cited funding limitations.Payments are expected to be distributed by late February, with Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payment rates due before year-end.🏛️ Treasury Secretary Sells FarmlandTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent has completed the sale of his North Dakota farmland following ethics scrutiny.Through a partnership, Bessent owned 5,000+ acres generating rental income.In October, he referred to himself as a “soybean farmer,” drawing criticism because the land was held purely as an investment.Ethics rules required divestment upon taking office, but illiquidity delayed the sale.The land was sold on December 15 for roughly $12.4 million to an entity tied to a longtime friend and business partner.🌽 Brazil Corn Crop TrimmedSafras & Mercado lowered Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 142.9 mmt, slightly below its prior forecast.The estimate still sits well above USDA’s outlook (131 mmt) and Conab’s 138.8 mmt.Weather remains mostly favorable with abundant rainfall and near-to-above-average temperatures expected.🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports: No U.S. Beans in NovemberChina imported zero U.S. soybeans in November for the third straight month, versus 2.8 mmt last year.Brazil accounted for 72% of November imports (up 49% YoY).Argentina surged, supplying 22% of imports (up 634% YoY).Through November, China imported 103.8 mmt, with the U.S. making up just 16%.Since the October trade truce, traders estimate China has bought 7+ mmt of U.S. soybeans.Recent U.S. shipments should appear in December customs data.USDA’s Export Inspections report today may confirm additional shipments.🚨 USDA Flash SaleU.S. exporters sold 134,000 mt (5 mil bushels) of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery.Total Chinese purchases for the current marketing year now stand at 3.845 mmt (141 mil bushels) across 15 flash sales.📊 CFTC Fund PositioningThe CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report.For the week ending December 9:Funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.Soybean net length remains one of the largest on record.The CFTC expects to be fully current by month-end.🐄 Bullish Cattle on Feed ReportAs of December 1:Cattle on feed totaled 11.73 million head, down 2% YoY.November placements fell 11% YoY, the lowest for the month since 1996.Marketings declined 12% YoY, matching expectations.The report is bullish, but holiday timing may limit near-term market reaction.🏭 More Packing Plant Closures PossibleTight cattle supplies continue to pressure packer margins.Plants are operating below capacity, raising closure risks.Recent closures and cutbacks by Tyson highlight the strain.Restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports have worsened supply issues.Even if borders reopen, rebuilding the U.S. herd will take years, not months.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Corn futures moved higher for a second straight session on Thursday. The Mar26 contract settled near $4.45, supported by strong export demand.Accumulated US corn sales through the end of November are running well ahead of last year.Wheat futures finished higher on short covering but remain near two-month lows.Soybean futures continued to slide, pressured by uncertainty around Chinese buying.There was chatter of possible Chinese purchases of US corn out of the PNW (several cargoes). A USDA flash sale today or Monday would confirm the business.🥩 Beef PricesBeef prices remain near record highs.Ground beef prices jumped again in November, now well above last year’s levels.Steak prices have also climbed sharply, depending on the cut.The biggest driver continues to be the smallest US cowherd in more than 70 years, paired with strong consumer demand.The Trump administration recently removed tariffs on Brazilian beef imports and called for a price-fixing investigation into the major packers.Despite higher projected beef imports, prices are expected to stay elevated.🌱 USDA Flash SalesUSDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.A large volume of soybeans has now been sold to unknown destinations this year, with speculation that China accounts for roughly half.📦 Export Sales ReportCorn export sales were strong again, with Japan leading buyers.Soybean sales slowed from the prior week, though China was the top buyer.Wheat sales increased week over week, with Bangladesh leading purchases.📉 Inflation UpdateCPI eased in November, coming in below expectations.Food and energy prices were key contributors to slower inflation.The data was collected later than usual due to the government shutdown, raising questions about accuracy.There’s concern inflation could reaccelerate in December.🌧️ Drought MonitorScattered precipitation improved drought conditions in parts of Iowa and Ohio.Drought worsened in portions of Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri.Conditions across the High Plains were mostly unchanged.US Areas Experiencing DroughtCorn: 32%Soybeans: 33%Winter Wheat: 36%Spring Wheat: 16%Cattle: 27%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On?Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week.Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume.📊 USDA Flash Sales RecapUSDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 deliveryAdditional soybeans sold to unknown destinationsCorn sold to MexicoA cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in NovemberThis mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market.🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the ComplexChicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue.Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside.⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions EscalateRussia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals.Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year.💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up ReportThe CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December.⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production HighUS ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt.📌 Bottom LineChina appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.