Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌱 Soybeans surge on China demand — Nov26 futures jumped nearly 23¢ to close near $13.32/bu after China snapped up ~1mmt of US soybeans this week. The buying comes just two weeks ahead of the expected Xi-Trump meeting in Washington 🇺🇸🇨🇳.

📊 USDA WASDE Day — Traders are bracing for today's 11am CST Crop Production report, with a notable cut to corn yield expected and only modest reductions to soybeans. Corn ending stocks are projected to fall sharply while wheat stocks edge higher, both domestically and globally 🌽🌾.

🛢️ Crude oil rockets higher — Brent surged 6.3% to top $107/bbl and WTI jumped 6.7% above $102/bbl, both hitting highs not seen since mid-May, as Middle East attacks disrupted export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned the US-Iran conflict could drag past the midterms, while gas prices climbed to $4.28/gal ⛽🔥.

📈 Inflation heats up — August PPI rose 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y, driven largely by a 4.2% jump in energy prices. Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike, with the CPI report due out this morning 💵📉.

⛽ Ethanol update — Weekly production slipped 1% to 1.1M barrels/day, even as stocks climbed to a seasonal high of 25.19M barrels. Corn Belt margins strengthened, ranging from 5¢ negative to 40¢ positive 🌽🏭.

🚢 Flash sales to China — USDA confirmed 272,000mt of soybeans sold to China and 206,500mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. Check the China soybean purchase tracker below for the full picture 🇨🇳📦.

🌦️ Drought & weather watch — Rain eased drought in parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, while dry heat worsened conditions across Illinois, Missouri and Oklahoma. NOAA confirmed summer 2026 was the hottest on record for the US, with August alone averaging a record 75.6°F 🌡️🌵.

🥇 Kalshi breaks new ground — The prediction platform launched gold and silver perpetual futures after CFTC approval — the agency's first nod for a non-crypto perpetual. Traditional exchanges like CME are pushing back hard against the move 🥈⚖️.

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🛢️ Oil Surges on US-Iran Tensions—Brent crude jumped 3.4% to top $100/barrel (highest since late May), while WTI climbed 3.3% to over $96. Pain at the pump continues as gas hits $4.22/gallon and diesel sets a record $5.94/gallon, squeezing consumers and supply chains alike! ⛽📈

🌾 Wheat Tumbles Despite War Disruptions—Chicago wheat fell ~18¢ to $7.29/bushel, and KC wheat dropped ~13¢ to $8.06, even as Russia-Ukraine strikes choke off Black Sea shipments. Hopes for resumed US-mediated peace talks seem to be capping the rally. 🕊️📉

🌽 Corn & Soybeans Slide Ahead of USDA Report—Corn eased ~6¢ to $5.28/bushel, and soybeans lost ~7¢ to $13.10 as traders position for Friday's big WASDE release. 📊⏳

📅 All Eyes on Friday's WASDE Report—Traders expect a notable cut to corn yield/production and a smaller trim to soybeans, with US corn stocks seen falling sharply. Globally, the story looks similar: corn stocks down big, soybeans down modestly, and wheat ticking higher. 🔍🌍

🇷🇺 Sovecon Slashes Russian Wheat Export Forecast—The group now sees 2026/27 wheat exports at 41.4mmt (-7.2%) and total grain exports at 49.4mmt (-8.2%) as Black Sea AND Sea of Azov shipments get disrupted. Sovecon warns this could hit markets even harder than the 2022 crisis, since both major exporters are now blocked. ⚠️🚢

🌍 New Suppliers Step Up as Ukraine Struggles—Argentina's corn exports could hit a record 10mmt this Aug-Sept (vs. the usual 3mmt!), while the US is filling Europe's corn gap, supplying 40%+ of EU imports in July-August. Drought-hit EU corn imports are set to jump to 25mmt as Ukrainian supply lines stay squeezed. 🇦🇷🇺🇸🇪🇺

🇲🇽🇨🇳 Fresh Flash Sales Hit the Tape—USDA confirmed 182,880mt of corn sold to Mexico, plus 340,000mt of soybeans to China and 100,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/27 marketing year. Strong demand signals even as markets digest bearish price action elsewhere! 🚢💰

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🌽 StoneX Crop Estimates: StoneX trimmed its corn yield forecast to 182.9 bpa but raised production to 16.207 billion bushels on higher acreage. Soybean yield held at 53 bpa while production climbed to 4.547 billion bushels—all eyes now turn to Friday's USDA WASDE report. 📊

🌾 Crop Conditions & Harvest: Corn conditions slipped slightly to 56% good-to-excellent as harvest kicked off at 5% complete nationally. 🚜 Soybeans held steady at 58% g/e, spring wheat harvest raced to 86% done, and winter wheat planting is just getting started at 2%.

📈 Wheat Futures Surge: Wheat futures jumped Tuesday as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal faded, with Chicago wheat up 13¢ to $7.47/bu and KC wheat up 17¢ to $8.19/bu. ⚔️ Corn slipped to $5.34/bu while soybeans gained to $13.16/bu ahead of Friday's big report.

🤖 AI on the Farm: About 17% of farmers worldwide are now using generative AI, making it one of ag's fastest-growing technologies. 🧑‍🌾 US farmers lead the charge, leaning on AI for everything from agronomic advice to daily decision-making amid rising costs and weather uncertainty.

🚢 Export Inspections: Corn export inspections blew past expectations at 1.7mmt, up 11% week-over-week and 15% year-over-year. 📦 Soybean shipments rose 49% from the prior week to 422,016mt (though down YoY), while wheat shipments slipped to 342,733mt with no Chinese purchases recorded.

🔶 Copper Hits Record Highs: LME copper broke above $14,600/mt this month, fueled by a rush of shipments into the US ahead of possible tariffs. ⚡ Long-term demand from AI data centers, EVs, and clean energy — plus supply worries from mining disruptions — keeps the bullish outlook intact.

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🌾 Wheat & Black Sea Conflict — Wheat futures jumped as weekend peace talks between US envoys, Putin, and Zelenskiy made little headway on ending the Black Sea conflict. Ukraine says it's open to compromise on grain and energy, but shipments remain far below normal seasonal pace.

⛽ Fuel Prices & Inflation — Diesel hit a record $5.90/gallon and gasoline climbed to $4.15/gallon as the US-Iran war keeps squeezing oil supplies, with WTI crude near $93/barrel. Rising fuel costs are fueling inflation fears ahead of Friday's CPI report, with markets watching for a possible Fed rate hike.

📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders — Money managers piled into corn, soybeans, and wheat last week, pushing net longs to some of the largest levels on record. Corn's combined futures-and-options position even hit a record net long, though futures-only data fell just short.

🇨🇳 China Soybean Squeeze — Chinese crushers face a tightening Q4 supply picture as Brazilian stocks dwindle and US tariffs keep American soybeans unprofitable. All eyes are on Xi Jinping's upcoming US visit for a possible tariff break, plus a fresh 9-million-bushel flash sale to unknown buyers.

🇫🇷 France Farm Aid—France rolled out $1.2 billion in relief for farmers battered by record heat, drought, and wildfires this summer. The agricultural hit is pushing the country to the edge of recession as a fifth heat wave looms.

🐺 Gray Wolf Delisting — The Trump administration is moving to strip gray wolves of endangered species protection to help ranchers guard cattle and bring down beef prices. New orders also target country-of-origin labeling, Packers and Stockyards enforcement, and easier local meat processing. 🥩

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures plunged as optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal raised hopes for improved Black Sea grain shipments. December Chicago wheat fell nearly 20¢, while KC wheat dropped about 19¢. 
🌽 Corn: Corn followed wheat lower, with December futures slipping about 3¢ on spillover pressure. 
🫘 Soybeans: Soybeans bucked the trend, gaining 6¢ on continued Chinese buying, higher crude oil prices, and concerns about hot, dry U.S. weather. 
🇨🇳 China: USDA reported another flash soybean sale, with U.S. exporters selling 192,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year. New-crop soybean sales are now 104% above last year's pace. 
📉 Exports: U.S. corn export demand was mixed. Old-crop sales posted large cancellations, while new-crop sales topped expectations but remain 31% below last year's pace. Wheat sales also came in below expectations. 
🌡️ Drought: Dry weather continues to threaten the Corn Belt, with drought worsening in several areas. Current drought coverage stands at 28% for corn, 30% for soybeans, 59% for winter wheat, and 82% for spring wheat. 
🚜 Farm income: USDA expects 2026 net farm income to fall 5.5% from last year after adjusting for inflation, but it should remain above the 20-year average. 
🥩 Cattle: Tyson cut its earnings outlook for the second time in a month, projecting deeper beef losses of $625 million to $775 million as tight cattle supplies squeeze packer margins. 
🏭 Beef packing: Tyson has closed several beef plants to cut costs, highlighting the financial pressure facing the packing industry amid historically tight cattle supplies. 
🐔 Poultry: Tyson's poultry business is helping offset beef losses, although cautious consumer spending is beginning to pressure that segment as well.