Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🤖 USDA Turns to AI: USDA is rolling out a new AI tool in tomorrow’s November Crop Production report as an extra safeguard to catch errors, following September’s corn miscalculations. The move comes as confidence in USDA data has slipped amid reporting inconsistencies and staff cuts across the agency.

🇨🇳 China Extends Tariff Truce: Beijing will hold off on an additional 24% tariff on US goods for two more months while keeping its 10% blanket tariff in place, and port fees on US ships are delayed until January 10. Trump and Xi are set to meet later this month at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, with ag purchases and rare earths high on the agenda.

📊 WASDE Preview: USDA releases its Crop Production and WASDE report Tuesday at 11:00am CST, with traders expecting lower corn yield and production but still the second-largest crop on record. Soybeans are expected to edge higher toward a record harvest, while global corn, soybean, and wheat stocks are all forecast to rise.

⛽ Harvest Fuel Relief Program: USDA’s $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program has an October 16 acreage reporting cutoff, which passed three days before the program was even announced. Paul Neiffer recommends reviewing your FSA-578 reports and checking with your county FSA office, especially if you picked up land late or operate a new entity.

💰 Fund Positioning: Large money managers sold 72k corn, 51k soybean, and 13k SRW wheat contracts for the week ending November 3. The funds’ corn net long is now the smallest since early July, while their SRW wheat net short is the largest since late January.

📈 Friday’s Markets: Soybeans bounced about 6 cents to near $11.94 on short covering after a week of steep losses, and Dec26 corn added roughly 2 cents to near $4.42. Wheat kept sliding to its lowest level since February as Russia-Ukraine peace talks raise hopes for improved Black Sea shipments.

🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported a sale of 101,000mt (4 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery. Exporters also sold 136,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year.

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🇨🇳🌾 Chinese buyers signed $600 million in US sorghum and wheat purchase agreements with Illinois-based Hang Tung Resources at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai. The deals come as China lags far behind its $17 billion annual commitment for US farm goods beyond soybeans, buying just $7.2 billion through September.

📉💻 The stock market plunged Thursday as a massive tech and AI selloff pushed the Nasdaq down 5.5% and into correction territory, while the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Dow dropped 3.4%. Investors worried that Democrats’ sweeping midterm victories could bring tighter AI regulations, erasing Wednesday’s strong postelection rally.

🏦📈 Treasuries rallied as investors fled to safe-haven assets, sending yields down as much as 12 basis points to their lowest levels since early September. Traders are now scaling back expectations for more Fed rate hikes, with some positioning for no change in December.

🫘🌽 Soybean futures extended their losing streak to nine straight sessions, with the Jan27 contract falling 14 cents to $11.88 on expectations of a record-large US crop. Corn also slipped on big-crop expectations, while wheat edged higher on technical buying despite Russia-Ukraine peace deal optimism.

🚢📦 US soybean export sales fell 44% week over week to 1.5 MMT, though China was the top buyer, and accumulated sales are up an impressive 76% from last year. Corn sales held steady at 1.3 MMT, with Mexico leading, while wheat sales dropped 37% to 538,000 MT, with the Philippines as the top buyer.

☀️🏜️ USDA’s latest drought monitor showed worsening conditions in northern Indiana, southern Illinois, and Missouri, while Minnesota and the High Plains saw improvement. About 31% of the Corn Belt is in drought, down from 35% a year ago, and the dry weather has been ideal for harvest.

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🇨🇳 China says it’s open to buying more US farm goods, but only once the “$30 billion-for-$30 billion” tariff-cut deal is implemented. Beijing’s non-soybean ag purchases hit just $7.2 billion through September, the lowest for that period since 2019. 🤝🌾

🛢️ WTI crude plunged 8.3% to $88.12, its lowest close since late August, on hopes for a US-Iran deal after Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Some analysts warn the selloff may be overdone, since neither side looks ready to make major concessions. 📉⚔️

🌱 January soybeans fell nearly 12 cents to about $12.02, the lowest since mid-August, pressured by weaker crude and expectations for a massive US crop. December corn bounced 2 cents to $4.44 on oversold conditions, while wheat slipped on hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 🌽🌾

🚜 John Deere will close its Ottumwa and Clarion, Iowa, factories and move sugar cane harvester production from Louisiana to Brazil. The restructuring comes just a week after Deere announced recalls and new hiring across several Midwest plants. 🏭🔄

🏛️ The USDA and CFTC signed an MOU to strengthen oversight, share information, and expand risk management tools for farmers and ranchers. It follows the CFTC’s plan to publish Commitments of Traders reports twice a week starting in December. 📊🤠

⛽ US ethanol production hit 1.14 million barrels per day, the second-highest level on record and up 2.2% from the prior week. Ethanol margins strengthened across the Corn Belt, now running 30 to 70 cents per gallon positive. 💪🌽

🇧🇷 Rabobank expects Brazilian soybean exports to dip to 113 MMT, with production forecast at 178 MMT amid rising costs, tight margins, and El Niño concerns. That’s well below the USDA’s forecast of a record 186 MMT Brazilian crop. 🌦️💸

🇪🇸 USDA reported a flash sale of 167,000 MT (6 million bushels) of soybeans to Spain for 2026/27 delivery. Accumulated US soybean sales are now running 80% ahead of last year’s pace. 🚢📈

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🗳️ Midterm Results: Democrats are projected to take control of both the House and Senate, flipping Senate seats in Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas, plus governor’s races in Ohio and Texas. 📊 Grain markets are quiet this morning while stocks trade higher, and the recent $8 billion farmer relief package is safe since it was approved through the CCC without needing Congress. 💵

🌽 StoneX Crop Forecast: StoneX raised its 2026 corn yield to 183.1 bpa (above USDA’s 181.2), pushing total production to 16.20 billion bushels, with Iowa leading at 216 bpa. 🫘 Soybean yield was bumped to 55.0 bpa vs. USDA’s 53.1, putting production at 4.73 billion bushels, led by Illinois at 68 bpa. 📈

🏥 ACA Premiums: Obamacare marketplace premiums are expected to climb 13% in 2027 after a 26% jump this year, ranging from 3% in Vermont to 28% in Arizona. ⚠️ The expiration of enhanced tax credits means those earning over 400% of the federal poverty level now pay full price for coverage. 💸

📉 Futures Recap: Dec26 corn fell about 6¢ to ~$4.43/bu, its lowest close since early July, as export sales run 34% behind last year’s pace. 🫘 Jan27 soybeans slipped 3¢ to $12.14/bu on big-crop expectations, while wheat also closed lower despite optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 🌾

🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported 315,000mt of corn sold to Mexico and 136,000mt to South Korea for 2026/27 delivery. 📦 Exporters also sold 134,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations. 🌍

🏭 ADM Earnings: ADM raised its profit outlook for the third straight quarter, with crushing profits soaring to $311 million from just $13 million a year ago. ⛽ The US-Iran war boosted crude prices and biofuel demand, and ADM now expects a ~$350 million benefit from the 45Z tax credit. 💰

👨‍🌾 Farmer Sentiment: The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer rose to 126 in October, though only 62% of farmers report a strong balance sheet, down from 76% in January. 📉 Just 35% believe higher tariffs will strengthen the ag economy, down from 58% a year ago. 🇺🇸

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🚢 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections stayed strong at 2.4mmt (90 mil bu), with year-to-date totals running 56% ahead of last year and China taking about 63% of the week’s volume. 📉 Corn rose 39% week-over-week to 884,766mt, while wheat posted an all-time record weekly low of just 75,413mt, down 61% from the prior week.

💰 Flash Sales: Mexico bought 1.7mmt (68 mil bu) of US corn, split between 2026/27 and 2027/28 delivery. 🇨🇳 Exporters also sold 136,000mt (5 mil bu) of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery.

🛢️ China’s Soybean Oil Glut: China’s soybean oil stocks climbed to a record near 1.5 million tons as crushing outpaces sluggish demand, pushing exports to more than triple from a year ago. 🤝 China’s lead trade negotiator also met with a US ag delegation Monday, as Chinese purchases of non-soybean US farm goods head toward a seven-year low.

📊 Futures Recap: Jan soybeans dropped roughly 18¢ to $12.17/bu, their lowest close since mid-August, on falling crude, fund liquidation and strong yields. 🌽 Dec corn edged up a penny to $4.48/bu despite harvest pressure, and wheat closed slightly higher as Russia-Ukraine attacks dimmed hopes for a Black Sea shipping deal.

🚜 Harvest Progress: Corn harvest jumped to 74% complete, just behind the 77% average, with delays persisting in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa. 🌱 Soybeans reached 88% done (ahead of the 84% average), while winter wheat planting hit 83%, short of the 86% traders expected.

🇧🇷 Brazil Planting: AgRural says Brazil’s soybean crop is 53% planted, ahead of last year’s 47% despite wet conditions in the south and dryness in the north. 🌽 Brazil’s first corn crop is 63% planted, also ahead of last year’s 59% pace.