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Bearish USDA Report... But Corn Rallies?! Here's Why
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 USDA and Corn Rally6:10 The Funds8:26 US/China Talks to Resume9:39 USDA Reporting Problems11:12 Rare Soybean Oil Sale🌽 USDA Shakes Up Corn & SoybeansUS corn acreage is projected to be the largest since 1936. On Friday, USDA raised its estimate by 1.5% to 98.7 million acres. Despite a lower average yield projection of 186.7 bpa, the agency still forecasts a record 16.8 billion bushel corn crop. Ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.1 billion bushels but remain the highest since 2018/19.For soybeans, yield was lowered to 53.5 bpa, but acreage revisions lifted production to 4.3 billion bushels. Exports were cut due to the ongoing US–China trade war, pushing ending stocks higher. If confirmed, USDA’s corn crop estimate would beat the previous record (2023) by a massive 9.6%. 📉 Funds Add to ShortsCFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed money managers were net sellers:Corn: -4k contractsSoybeans: -25k contracts (largest net short since mid-August)SRW Wheat: -10k contracts🤝 US–China Trade TalksTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Madrid. The talks aim to lay the groundwork for a deal: China purchases in exchange for tariff relief. This comes as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiration in early November. So far, China hasn’t bought a single bushel of US soybeans for the current marketing year.🇨🇳 Export Sales TwistLast week’s reported “sale” of 2 million bushels of soybeans to China actually dated back to January, highlighting USDA reporting issues amid budget cuts and staffing problems. For comparison, China bought 26.8 mmt ($12.6B) of US beans last season.🛢 Soybean Oil SurpriseUSDA reported a flash sale of 22,000 mt soybean oil to South Korea for 25/26 delivery—the first of the year. Flash sales of oil are rare given domestic biofuel demand.
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12:27
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12:27
Building Drought vs. Record USDA Yield Estimates: Which Story Wins??
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Building Drought6:13 USDA Preview9:41 Export Sales12:21 Brazil's Crop Report14:20 Inflation is Up🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re covering drought updates, USDA’s big monthly reports, export sales, Brazil’s latest production numbers, and fresh inflation data. Let’s dive in 👇🌦 Weather & Drought MonitorUSDA’s weekly drought monitor shows worsening dryness across much of the Corn Belt. Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio saw notable deterioration, while Iowa and Minnesota posted smaller declines. About 20% of the region is now in drought, up 6% from last week. North Dakota remains the most drought-free state in the country.Corn: 13% affectedSoybeans: 22%Winter Wheat: 38%Spring Wheat: 13%Cattle: 18%📊 Crop Production & WASDE PreviewUSDA releases its September Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11am CST. Traders expect lower corn and soybean yields, though both are still projected at record highs.Corn & soy yields expected to be down on dryness/diseaseUS ending stocks seen slightly lowerGlobal corn/soy stocks edging down, wheat up🚢 Export SalesUS corn, soybean, and wheat export sales were all disappointing last week:Corn: 539,900 mt (down 74%)—Mexico top buyerSoybeans: 541,100 mt (down 34%)—Unknown destinations top buyerWheat: 305,400 mt (down 2%)—Japan top buyer🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update (Conab)Conab raised estimates again:Corn: record 139.7 mmtSoybeans: record 171.5 mmtSoy exports: 106.7 mmt, driven by ChinaBrazilian farmers are wrapping up safrinha harvest and starting first-crop planting.📈 Economy & CPIUS consumer prices rose 2.9% YoY in August, the highest since January. Food led gains with meat and eggs up sharply. Trump’s tariffs may be adding to pressure. Markets expect Fed rate cuts in September, October, and possibly December.👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for more daily grain market coverage, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
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17:45
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17:45
USDA to Cut Crop Estimates? + Joe Attempts Positive Spin on Soybean Situation
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Intro0:49 USDA Preview3:38 Argentina Situation7:22 Positive (ish) Soybean Spin10:11 Biofuel Back and Forth12:15 Ethanol Production🌽 Welcome back! Big USDA Report Tomorrow 🌽📊 Crop Production & WASDE PreviewThe USDA releases its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report Friday at 11am CST. Traders expect corn and soybean yield/production cuts, though both remain at record highs. Soybean exports could be trimmed again, with China still absent from the US market. Carryout projections: US corn, soybeans, and wheat are all expected to decline slightly; global wheat is seen higher. The big ticket items tomorrow are US corn and soybean yield estimates—this month USDA adds objective yield data into the mix.🇦🇷 Argentina OutlookRosario Exchange pegs corn production at 61mmt, record-large if rainfall is adequate. 2024/25 outlook also boosted to 50mmt. Soybean acreage expected down 7%, with production forecast at 47mmt vs. 49.5mmt last year. Buenos Aires Exchange also sees lower acreage, down 4.3%.🇨🇳 China’s Snub of US SoybeansChina booked 7.5mmt of October soybeans—95% from Brazil. At this time last year, they had 12–13mmt from the US. Despite US beans being cheaper, the 23% tariff adds $2/bu, keeping them uncompetitive. Analysts warn US farmers could lose 14–16mmt of soybean sales if China waits until mid-November. Still, USDA projects US exports only -9% YoY, thanks to other global buyers stepping in.⛽ Biofuels & Policy UncertaintyTrump’s new biofuel plan rattled the market, with concerns refiners may only face partial obligations. Senator Mike Lee’s bill adds more uncertainty. Biofuel shares (Bunge, ADM, Valero, and Green Plains) tumbled; RIN prices hit their lowest since June.🍶 Ethanol Production & MarginsUS ethanol output hit 1.1mil bpd, the strongest for this week in a decade. Stocks rose to 22.8mil barrels. Margins remain strong, anywhere from +20c to +60c across the Corn Belt, supported by low corn prices.👉Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and leave a comment with your thoughts on tomorrow’s report.
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14:04
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14:04
"Worst Ag Economy of My Lifetime" - The Farmer is a "Mechanism" for Direct Payment Funneling
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Ag Economy6:57 Soybean Hit Piece9:58 SREs11:15 Grain Standards Act12:13 Cattle Selloff14:03 BLS Data (Jobs)💰 Ag Economy CrisisAgWeb reports farmers nationwide are facing collapsing margins.At a September 2 meeting in Arkansas, 400+ farmers called bailouts ineffective and skewed toward corporate players.Monopolistic control in seed, fertilizer, and chemical markets is trapping farmers while corporations profit.Bankruptcy risks are spiking, with 25–40% of farms in some regions projected to fail.Leaders demand reforms: antitrust enforcement, merger freezes, lobbying limits, and greater market diversification.🌱 Soybean DisasterChina still hasn’t purchased a single US soybean this marketing year.Typically, China takes more than 25% of US soybean exports.Ongoing trade tensions push China toward Brazil.Prices are now below production costs—half a million American farmers are at risk.Agriculture supports nearly 19% of US GDP and 1M+ jobs.Industry leaders are calling for immediate trade resolutions.⚡ Biofuels BattleSenators from oil-producing states introduced the Protect Consumers from Reallocation Costs Act of 2025.Would block the EPA from reallocating blending obligations from small refineries to larger ones.Biofuel groups argue this rewards small refineries and weakens renewable fuel policy.A reallocation of exemptions would be devastating to the ethanol industry.🌾 Grain Standards ActThe House passed the US Grain Standards Reauthorization Act of 2025.Extends the inspection and grading system through 2030.Pushes USDA toward tech upgrades for better accuracy.Ensures fair pricing for farmers and buyer confidence abroad.The Senate must approve before the end of September to avoid $70M/day losses.🥩 Cattle Market CorrectionCattle futures saw the steepest correction since June.Feeder cattle limit down across nearly all contracts.Driven by payroll data revisions showing a weaker consumer outlook.Trump’s weekend comments on falling beef prices added pressure.📉 Jobs Data ShockBLS is expected to revise payrolls lower by 911,000 jobs.Cuts average monthly growth nearly in half from previous reports.Weak labor data strengthens the case for a Fed rate cut next week.Final revisions are due early 2026.👉Don’t miss tomorrow’s update—hit subscribe, drop a comment with your thoughts, and share this with a fellow farmer or market watcher. Staying informed is critical in times like these!
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15:45
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15:45
China Imports a Record Amount of Soybeans, but NONE from the US
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 China Imports5:26 Crop Progress9:21 Brazil Planting Begins10:57 Russia Wheat11:54 Grain Shipments🌎 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down key moves in global grain markets.📊 China Soybean DemandChina ramped up soybean purchases in August, bringing in a record 12.3mmt for the month. Stockpiles now sit at 6.8mmt—the highest since March. While the US export window is just opening, China continues to rely heavily on Brazil amid the ongoing US-China trade war.🌽 US Corn & Soy ConditionsCorn ratings slipped slightly, with 68% good/excellent vs. 69% last week, still the best since 2018. 4% of the crop is harvested vs. 3% average. Soybean ratings dipped to 64% g/e, the lowest of the year. 21% of beans are dropping leaves—a touch ahead of average.🌾 Wheat UpdateSpring wheat harvest is 85% complete, nearly in line with average. Winter wheat planting is just getting started at 5%, steady with last year.🇧🇷 Brazil Planting PaceAgRural reports 12% of first corn crop planted, behind last year’s 15%. Soybean planting has just begun at 0.2%. USDA projects 131mmt corn and 175mmt soybeans for Brazil this season.🇷🇺 Russia’s Bigger Wheat CropSovecon lifted its wheat estimate to 86.1mmt, matching IKAR’s latest call. Black Sea production strength continues to weigh on global wheat prices.🚢 Export InspectionsCorn: 1.4mmt (57m bu)—up 70% vs. last year 📈Soybeans: 452k mt (17m bu)—+24% y/yWheat: 425k mt (16m bu)—down sharply w/wDon’t forget to subscribe, drop a 👍, and share your thoughts in the comments. Your support helps keep this channel going!
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13:28
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13:28