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🫘 Soybean meal ripped to a new contract high of $372.90 before settling at $368.70 as rain threatens to delay Corn Belt harvest just as crush plants scramble for beans. 📈 Corn and wheat both settled lower, with wheat pressured by hopes for a Russia-Ukraine deal that could ease Black Sea shipping.

⚔️ Trump is weighing whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran or pursue a diplomatic path, with a Tuesday meeting set with six Gulf nations to map out next steps. ⛽ Meanwhile diesel hit a record $6.45/gal and gasoline jumped to $4.47/gal, ramping up inflationary and political pressure.

📉 US corn export sales fell 47% week-over-week to 1mmt, with Mexico the top buyer. 🇨🇳 Soybean sales dropped 35% to 1.7mmt with China leading purchases, while wheat sales rose 68% to 325,900mt on demand from the Philippines.

🌧️ USDA's drought monitor showed improvement in parts of the Corn Belt and High Plains after heavy rain, with total drought coverage now at 25% vs. 37% a year ago. 🐄 Winter wheat (57%) and cattle (58%) remain the most drought-stressed categories.

🇲🇽 The Santa Teresa port will reopen to Mexican feeder cattle imports on September 24, becoming the second border crossing to resume after nearly two years of screwworm-related closures. 🐮 Imports will start slow at ~750 head/day, adding to the roughly 6,000 head already processed since Douglas, AZ reopened in August.

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🌧️ Heavy rain is soaking the Corn Belt again, with parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin bracing for up to 10 inches through the weekend. Harvest delays and flooding are expected as fieldwork stalls across Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

💰 The Fed hiked interest rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase in over three years. Energy prices from the US-Iran war and inflation at 3.4% are keeping pressure on for possibly another hike this year.

🌱 Soybeans ticked up ahead of US-China trade talks, with the Nov26 contract near $13.21 as traders eye stronger Chinese purchases. Corn slipped slightly to $5.34 on the Dec26 contract, while wheat finished modestly higher.

⛽ Russia looks set to extend its diesel export ban through October as Ukrainian drone strikes keep hammering refining capacity. US diesel prices hit a record $6.31/gallon as the global market feels the squeeze.

🌾 Black Sea attacks are forcing Russia to reroute wheat exports through pricier, less efficient Baltic and Far East channels. Despite the disruption, USDA still expects Russia to remain the world's top wheat exporter this year.

🏭 US ethanol production held steady at 1.099 million barrels per day, up 4.2% year-over-year. Stocks climbed to a 19-week high while margins across the Corn Belt stayed mostly positive.

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🌱 NOPA August Crush Data – US soybean crush hit an 11-month low of 205.456 million bushels, down 5.2% from July, but still an all-time record for August. Soybean oil stocks tumbled to their lowest since November 2024 at 1.201 billion pounds, missing trade estimates. 📉

📈 Grains Rally – Soybeans surged nearly 15 cents to $13.19/bushel as the smaller-than-expected crush lit a fire under meal futures, with corn and wheat riding the spillover higher. 🌽🌾 Wheat also got a boost from hopes of Black Sea de-escalation.

⛽ Diesel Export Ban Talk – Senate Majority Leader John Thune floated banning diesel exports as US prices hit a record $6.27/gallon, though the Trump administration hasn't signed on. 🚛 Critics doubt a ban would meaningfully lower prices, and some lawmakers are pushing a federal diesel tax suspension instead.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Tariff Talks – The US and China are negotiating tariff cuts on ~$30 billion in trade, including agricultural goods, just a week before Xi's visit to meet President Trump. 🤝 Lower tariffs could spark fresh Chinese soybean buying, a welcome boost as US crushers face tight Q4 supplies.

🌧️ Canadian Wheat Harvest Delays – Persistent rain has stalled what was shaping up to be a record Canadian wheat crop, with Saskatchewan only 27% harvested (vs. a 58% average) and Alberta at 21% (vs. 44%). ❄️ No freeze is expected until late November, but every wet day raises the risk of quality losses.

💹 Treasury Yields Spike – The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, driven by surging oil prices and inflation fears tied to Middle East tensions. 🏦 AI-fueled corporate borrowing and rising government debt are adding extra upward pressure ahead of the Fed's rate decision.

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🌱 CHS Announces Major Wisconsin Soybean Plant: CHS is building a ~$700 million soybean processing facility near Evansville, WI, capable of crushing 80 million bushels annually and boosting the company's total capacity by more than two-thirds. 🏗️ Set to open in fall 2028, the plant would theoretically process ~66% of Wisconsin's entire soybean crop.

🇨🇳 China Passes Halfway Mark on Soybean Purchases: China booked at least 1mmt of US soybeans last week, pushing total marketing-year purchases to roughly 13mmt against its 25mmt annual commitment through 2028. 🤝 The milestone lands just ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in Washington next week, with hopes the buying pace keeps fueling the soybean rally.

🌾 Wheat Slides on Black Sea De-Escalation Signs: Chicago wheat fell 3 cents to $7.22/bu and KC wheat dropped 6 cents to $7.93/bu after Trump announced Ukraine and Russia agreed to halt energy infrastructure attacks. 📈 Soybeans and corn moved higher instead, climbing 8 and 3 cents, respectively, on harvest delay concerns and rising crude prices.

🚂 Rail Fuel Surcharges Spike 153%: Average rail fuel surcharges jumped to 48 cents per car-mile, now eating up 11% of total transport costs for corn and soybeans, more than double last year. ⛽ Soaring diesel prices ($6.23/gal national average) are driving the increase, with costs ultimately trickling down to farmers via weaker basis.

🌽 Corn Conditions Tick Up, Harvest Begins: Corn ratings improved slightly to 57% good-to-excellent while harvest hit 8% complete, in line with the five-year average. 🫘 Soybean conditions held steady at 58% good-to-excellent, with harvest just getting started at 6% complete.

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting Kicks Off: Brazilian soybean planting reached 0.4% complete, running ahead of last year's pace despite excessive moisture slowing progress in some regions. 🌽 First-crop corn planting also advanced to 22% complete, well ahead of both last week and last year.

🚢 Export Inspections Mixed Last Week: Corn shipments slipped 9% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybean shipments jumped 45% to 672,759mt with China making up about 49% of inspections. 📦 Wheat shipments rose 5.9% to 456,720mt but remained well below year-ago levels.

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🌽 USDA cut its national corn yield to 178.5 bpa (from 180.7) and production to 15.8 billion bushels, close to expectations. 📉 Even so, it's still the second-largest corn crop on record, while corn ending stocks fell to 1.567 billion bushels (stocks-to-use below 10%) and global stocks hit a 12-year low; soybean yield ticked up to 52.8 bpa.

🔥 August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, right in line with expectations, driven largely by a 3.9% jump in gasoline prices. 📈 Traders now see a nearly 90% chance of a Fed rate hike this week, up sharply from roughly 70% before the report.

💰 Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds net buying 13k corn and 22k soybean contracts, pushing both net longs to record highs (414k corn, 257k soybeans). 📊 Funds sold 10k SRW wheat contracts, but the combined corn/soybean/wheat fund net long hit a record 696k contracts.

🎲 Kalshi is eyeing an expansion into agricultural perpetual futures, aiming to give farmers and traders a new way to gain leveraged exposure to commodity prices. ⛽ The company is also pursuing an oil-linked perpetual tied to WTI crude, with contracts trading 23 hours a day, five days a week.

🌎 Corn export sales came in at 1.9mmt for the new marketing year, beating expectations with Mexico as the top buyer, while soybean sales jumped 35% week-over-week to 2.6mmt led by China. 🌾 Wheat sales hit a marketing-year low of 194,200mt, down 38% from the prior week, with the Philippines as the top buyer.