Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday after USDA pegged June 1 stocks at 5.3 billion bushels, below every trade estimate, while 2026 planted acreage came in at 95.34 million acres. The Dec26 contract gained 6 cents to close at $4.36/bushel, while soybean stocks and acreage came in above expectations and wheat acreage fell well short of forecasts.

🌍 President Trump has temporarily suspended duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer for up to eight months to ease shortages tied to the US-Iran war. The DOJ continues investigating major fertilizer companies over antitrust concerns, even as the administration works to boost domestic production long-term.

🔥 A brutal heat dome is gripping the Corn Belt and Plains, with heat index values hitting 100–110°F across Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, and Kansas. Crop stress is worst in the western Corn Belt and Plains, while livestock producers watch for heat stress in fat cattle.

💵 The Brazilian Real posted its worst month of 2026 in June, falling about 2.7% on a stronger US dollar and rate expectations. Inflation worries, falling oil prices, and election uncertainty added pressure, though some analysts see room for a rebound.

🌾 USDA reported a flash sale of 100,000mt of hard red spring wheat to Nigeria for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Total wheat sales remain down 17% versus last year.

🥩 CME is launching new beef trim futures covering 50% and 90% lean beef trimmings starting July 20, pending approval. The contracts won't change cattle or beef supplies but aim to improve price risk management and transparency across the supply chain.

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🌽 Corn & Soybean Selloff
Corn futures tumbled Monday, with the Dec26 contract falling nearly 12 cents to close at $4.30/bushel as traders positioned ahead of today's USDA report. 📉 Soybeans dropped even harder, with Nov26 losing about 17 cents to settle at $11.39/bushel, while wheat also closed lower.

🌡️ Heat Building Across the Belt
Oppressive heat and humidity will grip the Plains and Corn Belt through the week, pushing heat index values into the triple digits with overnight lows barely dipping below 80. 🔥 Extreme heat warnings are already up across the eastern Plains and Corn Belt, with the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes at greatest risk for record highs.

📊 USDA Report Day
USDA releases its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports this morning, with corn acreage expected to decline from March intentions while soybean acreage rises. 🧾 June 1 corn stocks are forecast up ~16% YoY, soybeans up ~4%, and wheat up 9% — our USDA Snapshot video drops within 15 minutes of the 11am CST release.

🌱 Crop Conditions Update
Corn and soybean conditions slipped slightly last week, with corn at 67% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 65%, both still above their five-year averages. 🌾 Spring wheat improved to 59% G/E, while winter wheat held steady at a weak 26% G/E with harvest now 48% complete.

🚢 Export Inspections
Corn export inspections came in strong at 1.8mmt, up 22% week-over-week and 29% year-over-year. 🌊 Soybean inspections jumped 54% to 419,124mt with China taking 16% of the total, while wheat inspections fell 9.6% to 358,253mt.

💰 Flash Sale Alert
USDA confirmed a flash sale of 136,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Stay tuned for more updates as the trading week unfolds!

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🌡️ A heat dome is building over the Plains and Corn Belt this week, pushing temps into the 90s and triple digits with heat index values up to 110°F and raising crop stress concerns. Storms along the dome's edge should bring rain to the Dakotas, Minnesota, and parts of Nebraska/Kansas before cooler, wetter conditions return by week's end.

🌱 USDA finalized its Regenerative Feedstock Rule for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, letting farmers using regenerative practices qualify corn and soybeans for lower-carbon biofuel premiums. Farm and biofuel groups praised the move, though farmers will earn premiums through ethanol plants rather than direct government payments.

⚔️ US-Iran tensions flared again after US strikes on Iranian military targets followed Iran's attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, putting peace talks on hold even as US officials say negotiations remain on track. Trump warned of further military action if attacks continue, while WTI crude trades near $70/bbl amid the uncertainty.

📊 Friday's CFTC report showed big money managers growing their corn net short to 75k contracts (largest since early February) and trimming soybean net longs to 37k (smallest since early February). Wheat saw modest selling too, with funds dumping 1k SRW contracts on the week.

🌾 USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Tuesday morning, with corn acreage expected down and soybean acreage up versus March intentions. June 1 stocks are seen higher year-over-year across the board—corn +16%, soybeans +4%, and wheat +9%.

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🌱 SOYBEANS & GRAINS RALLY: Soybean futures surged Thursday, with Nov26 closing at $11.57/bu — the highest since early June 📈. Corn and wheat also gained, lifted by soybean oil strength, firmer crude, a weaker dollar, and heat worries across the Corn Belt 🌡️🌽.

💰 FERTILIZER PRICES EASE: Retail fertilizer prices fell for a second straight week as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with urea down 12% and UAN32 down 7% 📉. DAP and potash ticked up slightly, but officials warn it could take months for supply chains to fully normalize ⏳.

📊 USDA REPORTS AHEAD: USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports Tuesday morning 🗞️. Traders expect lower corn acreage, higher soybean acreage, steady wheat acreage, and higher year-over-year stocks across the board 🌾.

🌧️ DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE: Rain improved conditions in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and northwest Iowa, dropping Corn Belt drought coverage to just 13% (from 36% earlier this year) ☔. The High Plains saw some relief too, but widespread dryness still grips much of the region 🏜️.

🇮🇷 IRAN-US TENSIONS: Iran is pushing back on Trump's claim that unfrozen funds will be used to buy US ag goods, with the White House holding firm on its conditions 🚫. Tensions flared further after Iran allegedly attacked a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, raising doubts about the fragile US-Iran agreement ⚠️.

🚢 EXPORT SALES MIXED: Corn export sales dropped sharply last week, down 36% from the prior week, with Mexico the top buyer 📦. Soybean sales jumped 50% above the four-week average on strong "unknown destination" demand, while wheat sales also rose nicely to start the new marketing year 🌍.

⚖️ BAYER WINS BIG AT SCOTUS: The Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that Bayer can't be sued under state law for not putting a cancer warning on Roundup/glyphosate 🛡️. The decision could wipe out thousands of pending lawsuits and sent Bayer shares soaring as much as 20% 🚀.

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🌾 Farm Aid Boost 💰 Trump is requesting $11B+ in new farm aid on top of $30.5B already expected this year, including $10B for 2026 crop support and $1.1B for Southeast freeze losses. This would stack on top of the $12B Farmer Bridge Assistance Program already rolling out to producers.

⛽ Year-Round E15 Push 🌽 The White House just made its first formal request for Congress to legalize year-round E15 ethanol sales, framing it as a way to ease gas prices amid Middle East tensions. Unlike the House bill that already passed, Trump's version strips out the controversial Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) provisions.

🏭 Illinois Soybean Crush Plant 🌱 Incobrasa Industries opened a massive new 170,000 sq ft crush facility in Gilman, IL, doubling capacity and creating 40 new jobs while securing demand for 7,000 local farms. The plant even includes a 50-acre solar array to help power operations sustainably.

📉 Grains Under Pressure 🌾 Corn and soybeans extended their losing streak Wednesday, with Dec26 corn near $4.35/bu and Nov26 soybeans at $11.35/bu, pressured by a stronger dollar and weak crude. Wheat also slid for a fourth straight session as bearish momentum builds across the complex.

🛢️ Oil Prices Sink 📉 WTI crude tumbled nearly 4% to $70.34/barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes post-ceasefire, even as Trump calls for a DOJ probe into oil companies over retail prices. Gas prices are already down nearly 60 cents/gallon over the past month, though they typically lag crude moves.

🚢 Fertilizer Flows Rebound 🌍 Crop nutrient shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are surging back, with at least 16 vessels transiting since the Iran peace deal and volumes nearing pre-war levels. Urea prices are already easing as fears of prolonged disruption fade.

⚗️ Ethanol Update 📊 US ethanol output dipped slightly last week to 1.09M barrels/day while stocks climbed to 24.59M barrels. Despite the soft production, Corn Belt margins remain strong, running 30–50 cents positive, per Reuters data.