Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 StoneX Crop Estimates: StoneX trimmed its corn yield forecast to 182.9 bpa but raised production to 16.207 billion bushels on higher acreage. Soybean yield held at 53 bpa while production climbed to 4.547 billion bushels—all eyes now turn to Friday's USDA WASDE report. 📊

🌾 Crop Conditions & Harvest: Corn conditions slipped slightly to 56% good-to-excellent as harvest kicked off at 5% complete nationally. 🚜 Soybeans held steady at 58% g/e, spring wheat harvest raced to 86% done, and winter wheat planting is just getting started at 2%.

📈 Wheat Futures Surge: Wheat futures jumped Tuesday as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal faded, with Chicago wheat up 13¢ to $7.47/bu and KC wheat up 17¢ to $8.19/bu. ⚔️ Corn slipped to $5.34/bu while soybeans gained to $13.16/bu ahead of Friday's big report.

🤖 AI on the Farm: About 17% of farmers worldwide are now using generative AI, making it one of ag's fastest-growing technologies. 🧑‍🌾 US farmers lead the charge, leaning on AI for everything from agronomic advice to daily decision-making amid rising costs and weather uncertainty.

🚢 Export Inspections: Corn export inspections blew past expectations at 1.7mmt, up 11% week-over-week and 15% year-over-year. 📦 Soybean shipments rose 49% from the prior week to 422,016mt (though down YoY), while wheat shipments slipped to 342,733mt with no Chinese purchases recorded.

🔶 Copper Hits Record Highs: LME copper broke above $14,600/mt this month, fueled by a rush of shipments into the US ahead of possible tariffs. ⚡ Long-term demand from AI data centers, EVs, and clean energy — plus supply worries from mining disruptions — keeps the bullish outlook intact.

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🌾 Wheat & Black Sea Conflict — Wheat futures jumped as weekend peace talks between US envoys, Putin, and Zelenskiy made little headway on ending the Black Sea conflict. Ukraine says it's open to compromise on grain and energy, but shipments remain far below normal seasonal pace.

⛽ Fuel Prices & Inflation — Diesel hit a record $5.90/gallon and gasoline climbed to $4.15/gallon as the US-Iran war keeps squeezing oil supplies, with WTI crude near $93/barrel. Rising fuel costs are fueling inflation fears ahead of Friday's CPI report, with markets watching for a possible Fed rate hike.

📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders — Money managers piled into corn, soybeans, and wheat last week, pushing net longs to some of the largest levels on record. Corn's combined futures-and-options position even hit a record net long, though futures-only data fell just short.

🇨🇳 China Soybean Squeeze — Chinese crushers face a tightening Q4 supply picture as Brazilian stocks dwindle and US tariffs keep American soybeans unprofitable. All eyes are on Xi Jinping's upcoming US visit for a possible tariff break, plus a fresh 9-million-bushel flash sale to unknown buyers.

🇫🇷 France Farm Aid—France rolled out $1.2 billion in relief for farmers battered by record heat, drought, and wildfires this summer. The agricultural hit is pushing the country to the edge of recession as a fifth heat wave looms.

🐺 Gray Wolf Delisting — The Trump administration is moving to strip gray wolves of endangered species protection to help ranchers guard cattle and bring down beef prices. New orders also target country-of-origin labeling, Packers and Stockyards enforcement, and easier local meat processing. 🥩

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🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures plunged as optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal raised hopes for improved Black Sea grain shipments. December Chicago wheat fell nearly 20¢, while KC wheat dropped about 19¢. 
🌽 Corn: Corn followed wheat lower, with December futures slipping about 3¢ on spillover pressure. 
🫘 Soybeans: Soybeans bucked the trend, gaining 6¢ on continued Chinese buying, higher crude oil prices, and concerns about hot, dry U.S. weather. 
🇨🇳 China: USDA reported another flash soybean sale, with U.S. exporters selling 192,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year. New-crop soybean sales are now 104% above last year's pace. 
📉 Exports: U.S. corn export demand was mixed. Old-crop sales posted large cancellations, while new-crop sales topped expectations but remain 31% below last year's pace. Wheat sales also came in below expectations. 
🌡️ Drought: Dry weather continues to threaten the Corn Belt, with drought worsening in several areas. Current drought coverage stands at 28% for corn, 30% for soybeans, 59% for winter wheat, and 82% for spring wheat. 
🚜 Farm income: USDA expects 2026 net farm income to fall 5.5% from last year after adjusting for inflation, but it should remain above the 20-year average. 
🥩 Cattle: Tyson cut its earnings outlook for the second time in a month, projecting deeper beef losses of $625 million to $775 million as tight cattle supplies squeeze packer margins. 
🏭 Beef packing: Tyson has closed several beef plants to cut costs, highlighting the financial pressure facing the packing industry amid historically tight cattle supplies. 
🐔 Poultry: Tyson's poultry business is helping offset beef losses, although cautious consumer spending is beginning to pressure that segment as well.

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🇷🇺 Putin Signals Openness to Peace Deal – Putin said early this morning that several countries, including the US and China, are ready to support a peace agreement, though he stressed Russia and Ukraine must ultimately resolve it themselves. He also repeated prior warnings about potential attacks on airplanes in Russian airspace.

🌾 EU Scrambles to Keep Ukrainian Grain Moving – The EU is working with Ukraine and neighboring countries on alternative export routes as low water levels on the Danube complicate "solidarity lane" efforts, with Ukrainian grain exports down roughly 58% year-over-year in August. The bloc is also weighing extra financial support for farmers hit by this summer's heat and drought.

⛽ US Ethanol Production Dips but Stays Seasonally Strong – Weekly ethanol output slipped to 1.11 million barrels per day, down slightly week-over-week but up 3.7% versus last year, while stocks fell 1% week-over-week to 25.04 million barrels. Corn Belt margins weakened, ranging from 25 cents negative to 10 cents positive per Reuters data.

🌽 Arkansas Harvest Running Well Ahead of Schedule – Arkansas' soybean harvest sits at 4% complete, above the five-year average of 2%, while corn harvest is 42% done versus last year's 31% and the five-year average of 19%. Hot, dry conditions and early planting have sped things along, with corn harvest expected wrapped in two to three weeks.

🇨🇳 Another Soybean Flash Sale to China – USDA confirmed a fresh sale of 202,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/2027 delivery. See the China soybean purchase tracker below.

🥩 DOJ Widens Beef Antitrust Probe to Retailers – The investigation now covers eight major retailers, including Amazon, Costco, and Walmart, building on the probe Trump launched last November over alleged meatpacker collusion. Beef prices remain stubbornly high as the US cattle herd sits at its lowest level in over 70 years amid drought and rising input costs.

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 Wheat futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 Chicago up ~9¢ to $7.83/bu and Dec26 KC up ~7¢ to $8.45/bu. The move came after Russia rejected a Black Sea attack moratorium, though it also suspended export duties through year-end.

🌽 Corn climbed too, with Dec26 gaining ~8¢ to settle at $5.46/bu on crop yield worries and wheat spillover strength. Funds may have posted a record net long position of 412k contracts — watch for CFTC confirmation Friday!

🫘 Soybeans stole the show, with Nov26 surging nearly 30¢ to $13.18/bu. EPA's reallocation news, continued Chinese buying, and hot/dry weather worries all fueled the rally.

🛢️ Oil prices spiked 5.2% as WTI settled at $90.22/barrel — its highest close since late July — after US airstrikes on Iranian targets reignited Middle East tensions. Diesel hit a 52-week high at $5.63/gallon, way up from $3.69 a year ago.

🔥 Extreme heat is threatening Corn Belt crops this week, with triple-digit temps risking grain fill and stalk quality issues. Purdue's Dan Quinn expects an early harvest with yields landing near average, not a bumper crop or a disaster.

📊 USDA unveiled a plan to modernize ag data collection, leaning on satellite imagery, geospatial tools, and AI to cut duplicate reporting for farmers. Secretary Brooke Rollins says the goal is timelier, more accurate data while protecting producer privacy.

😊 Farmer sentiment rose for a second straight month, with Purdue/CME's Ag Economy Barometer hitting 135 in August, the highest since December 2025. More farmers now expect to be better off financially next year than worse off, for the first time since June 2025.

🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans, with a fresh flash sale of 136,000mt (5 million bushels) for the 2026/2027 marketing year.

🚜 John Deere rolled out an AI assistant called JD in its Operations Center app to help farmers make real-time input decisions. It's free, won't sell farmer data, and rolls out more widely later this year.