Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 Corn Belt Weather 
🌧️ Too much rain is becoming a problem in parts of the Corn Belt. Heavy rain from Iowa to Ohio and into Kentucky has caused flooding, with Indiana and Ohio seeing some of the heaviest amounts. More rain and severe storms are possible in the coming days, and some water levels could approach record highs. Localized crop damage has already been reported from strong winds, flooding, and heavy rain. 
💧 Rainfall has been highly variable across the region. Southern Iowa and parts of Missouri saw drought conditions improve, while dry conditions worsened in central Illinois, western Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin. Since the beginning of August, Iowa has received 172% of normal rainfall, Illinois 162%, Indiana 255%, and Ohio 295%. Meanwhile, parts of the Plains remain very dry, with Oklahoma at just 18% of normal rainfall, South Dakota at 32%, Kansas at 41%, and North Dakota at 43%. 
🌾 Areas Experiencing Drought 
 Corn: 29%
 Soybeans: 26%
 Winter wheat: 52%
 Spring wheat: 63%
 Cattle: 53%

📉 Grain Markets
 
🌽 Corn futures pulled back Thursday. December corn fell nearly 9 cents to $4.72 per bushel as traders took profits following Wednesday's rally. Large South American crops and favorable U.S. weather forecasts also pressured prices.

🫘 Soybeans finished mixed. November soybeans slipped a penny to $11.82 per bushel. Favorable weather and expectations for large South American supplies offset stronger demand for U.S. soybeans.

🌾 Wheat futures also edged lower. Early gains tied to Black Sea shipping concerns faded after Ukraine proposed halting attacks on civilian targets in the region. Russia has denied receiving the proposal.

🚢 Ukraine Grain Exports Plunge

🇺🇦 Ukrainian grain exports have fallen sharply. Russian attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels caused exports to drop 75% year over year during the first two weeks of August. The disruption comes at a difficult time, with wheat harvest at its peak, storage filling up, and corn harvest approaching.

📦 Farmers are struggling to sell their grain. Without export revenue, some farmers may not have enough money to cover expenses and plant winter or next year's crops. Ukraine is using rail, road, and Danube routes, but those alternatives cannot handle nearly as much grain as the country's Black Sea ports.

📊 U.S. Export Demand

🌽 U.S. corn export sales were stronger than expected. Weekly sales reached 410,700 MT, or about 16 million bushels, up 46% from the four-week average. Spain was the largest buyer, while new-crop corn sales reached 925,000 MT, or about 36 million bushels.

🫘 Soybean demand was mixed. Old-crop sales totaled 75,100 MT, or 3 million bushels, down 48% from the four-week average. However, new-crop soybean sales were strong at 1.8 MMT, or about 65 million bushels, with China the largest buyer.

🌾 Wheat sales remained soft. Sales totaled 255,900 MT, or 9 million bushels, down 14% from the previous week and 8% below the four-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer.

🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying U.S. Soybeans

🫘 China purchased another 125,000 MT of U.S. soybeans. The sale is for delivery during the 2026/27 marketing year. China has now purchased roughly 21% of its 25 MMT U.S. soybean commitment.

🧪 Fertilizer Prices Ease

📉 The global fertilizer market is showing signs of improvement. India received urea offers about 12% below its June purchase price, while urea prices have fallen by more than half from the $959 per ton paid in April.

⚠️ However, risks remain. Reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt fertilizer trade, while stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks are keeping uncertainty high.

🥩 Tyson Cuts Beef Capacity

🏭 Tyson Foods is closing more beef facilities. The company will close plants in Illinois and Utah and is seeking a buyer for another facility in Washington. Tyson plans to consolidate its beef operations around major plants in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas.

🐄 The closures highlight the severity of the cattle shortage. The U.S. cattle herd remains at its lowest level in more than seven decades, forcing packers to compete aggressively for expensive cattle. Cargill and JBS have also closed or repurposed facilities as the beef industry works to improve margins.

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🌽 USDA Slashes Corn & Soybean Yields—The USDA cut its 2026/27 corn yield to 180.7 bpa and soybean yield to 52.7 bpa, both below trade expectations. Higher planted acreage still pushed total production estimates above July's forecasts for both crops. 📊

🌾 Wheat Crop Stays Historically Small—USDA held its wheat production estimate at 1.53 billion bushels, marking the smallest US crop in 56 years. The report came with a much-improved 62.7% survey response rate. 📉

🚀 Grain Futures Rally on the Report — Corn futures jumped ~20 cents to settle near $4.81/bu, its best close since late July, while soybeans gained ~15 cents to $11.83/bu. Wheat rode the wave higher too, with Chicago and Kansas City contracts both up over 20 cents. 💰

🌱 Prevented Plantings Drop Sharply—Corn prevented plant acres fell 25% and soybeans plunged 56% from last year, while wheat prevented plantings rose 31%. Overall, corn and wheat acreage declined while soybean acreage expanded roughly 7%. 📐

⛈️ Severe Storms Batter the Corn Belt—Winds up to 100 mph, tornadoes, and flooding rains of 8–10 inches swept through the region, knocking out power for hundreds of thousands. Early damage reports appear localized, but more storms are expected through the week. ⚡

🇨🇳 China Books Another Soybean Flash Sale—US exporters sold 244,000mt of soybeans to China ahead of Xi Jinping's expected Washington visit next month. Most buying is coming from state traders, while private importers stay sidelined due to tariffs and weak commercial viability. 🚢

🇧🇷 Brazilian Farmers Face Rising Bankruptcies — Agribusiness bankruptcy filings jumped 22% year-over-year in Q1, led by soybean and cattle producers. Corporate farm filings surged nearly 74% amid higher costs and tighter credit. 💸

⛽ Ethanol Output & Margins Stay Strong — US ethanol production rose 1% week-over-week to 1.12 million barrels per day, with stocks hitting an 11-week high. Corn Belt margins remain solidly positive, ranging from 15 to 45 cents. 🔥

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🌩️ Severe storms tore through the Corn Belt Tuesday, spawning tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana and knocking out power to nearly a million people. Parts of Indiana and Ohio saw 6"+ of rain in 24 hours, and more stormy weather is expected through the week.

🌾 Russian August wheat exports could hit a 10-year low as Sovecon slashes its forecast to 3-3.4mmt amid Black Sea shipping disruptions. Ukraine's exports are also sinking, down 76% in August y/y, after drone strikes suspended operations at two major Novorossiysk grain terminals.

📡 The USDA is overhauling NASS crop reporting, tapping Kip Tom to modernize a system plagued by falling survey response rates. The plan leans on satellite imagery, drones, and machine-generated data to eventually deliver faster, more frequent (and more accurate) corn and soybean estimates.

📊 The USDA's Crop Production and WASDE report drops Wednesday at 11am CST, with traders expecting cuts to corn and soybean yields after a hot, dry July. This is the first report to incorporate actual survey data, and both new crop US and world carryout estimates are expected to shrink.

🚢 USDA confirmed fresh flash sales Tuesday, with 136,000mt of soybeans sold to China and 180,000mt of soybean meal sold to the Philippines. Both deals are set for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year.

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🌽 Ultra-Processed Foods Definition Delayed? The food industry is pushing the Trump administration to delay its ultra-processed foods definition, warning it could raise costs and spark litigation. 🏛️ Despite pushback, officials say the definition is still moving forward—just with uncertain timing.

📉 DTN Yield Models Point Lower DTN's Digital Yield Tour pegs national corn yield at 178.5 bpa and soybeans at 52.1 bpa, both below USDA's estimates. 🌾 If it holds, US corn production could fall 8-9% from last year.

📊 USDA WASDE Report Wednesday USDA releases its Crop Production and WASDE report Wednesday at 11am CST, with traders expecting cuts to corn and soybean yields. ⏳ It's the first report to incorporate actual survey data this season.

🌱 Crop Conditions: Mixed corn ratings held steady at 61% good-to-excellent, while soybeans slipped to 62%. ☀️ Spring wheat conditions worsened too, though winter wheat harvest is now 91% complete.

💹 Grain Markets Await Report: Soybeans edged higher, and corn stayed flat as traders sat on the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's data. 🌊 Wheat saw modest gains despite Black Sea shipping concerns, with weak demand still the bigger focus.

🚜 Farmers Push for Transparency & E15 Minnesota Corn Growers' Todd Wentzel says the Fertilizer Transparency Act could ease farmers' input costs. ⛽ With E15 now in the farm bill, year-round sales could be a big win for farm profitability.

🔥 Europe's Fifth Heat Wave Triple-digit temps are scorching France and England as Europe faces its fifth heat wave, worsening drought along the Rhine and Danube. 💶 Losses are already estimated at $1.7 billion, with roughly 9mmt of crops destroyed.

🚢 US Export Inspections Strong Corn export inspections hit 1.7mmt for the week, up 14% year-over-year despite a weekly dip. 🇨🇳 China reappeared in the data for the first time in three weeks.

⚡ Flash Sale Alert USDA reported a new flash sale of 105,000mt of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/2026 delivery. 📈 Total corn sales for the marketing year are now running 23% ahead of last year's pace.

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🌾 Ukraine grain exports could plunge as Russian attacks on Odesa disrupt Black Sea shipments, with the ag ministry slashing its export estimate 54% to 29.6mmt. 📦 Storage bins could be full by November, leaving an 11mmt shortfall as alternative routes through Romania can't fully replace Odesa's capacity.

📈 Wheat futures bounced back Friday, with Chicago Sep26 up nearly 9 cents to $6.40/bu and KC Sep26 up 14 cents to $7.14/bu on a weaker dollar and Black Sea worries. 🌽 Corn held mostly steady while soybeans slipped despite China ramping up US purchases, with traders positioning ahead of Wednesday's USDA report.

🌧️ This week's forecast looks favorable for the Corn Belt, with rain chances across the central and eastern regions offering relief from recent heat. The hot, dry western Corn Belt should trend cooler and wetter by week's end, though rainfall may stay uneven in spots.

💰 CFTC data shows managed money added 18k corn contracts for the week ending August 4, pushing the net long to 145k contracts, the biggest since late May. 📉 Funds were net sellers of 28k soybean contracts and 17k SRW wheat contracts on the week.

🛳️ USDA flash sales Friday: 238,000mt (9mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇲🇽 Corn sales to Mexico totaled 286,097mt (11mil bu), split between the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 marketing years.