Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 Corn and soybean futures extended their losses Tuesday, with Dec26 corn down ~6 cents to near $4.59/bu and Jan27 soybeans off nearly 10 cents to $12.43/bu. 📉 A sharp drop in the Brazilian real after Lula’s reelection, a fast-moving harvest, and fund liquidation all weighed on prices.

🌾 Wheat futures kept sliding on currency headwinds and optimism that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could normalize Black Sea trade flows. 🕊️ Dec26 SRW wheat fell ~6 cents to near $6.10/bu, while Dec26 HRW dropped ~9 cents to around $6.51/bu.

🏦 The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this week, with markets pricing in a ~90% chance of a pause per CME’s FedWatch tool. 🔥 But with September inflation at 3.7%, traders see an ~80% chance of a quarter-point hike in December and possibly more in 2027.

🌱 Syngenta is targeting a Hong Kong IPO as early as January 2027 at a valuation of at least $66 billion, potentially raising $5-10 billion. 💰 The Sinochem-controlled company plans to sell a 10-20% stake to cut debt and invest in seeds and crop protection.

🪙 Amundi expects gold to rebound to around $4,500/oz after a selloff pushed prices below $4,000, their lowest since mid-July. 📊 Central bank buying and safe-haven demand could support a recovery, though the firm doubts gold will hit $5,000 by year-end.

🌦️ A strong El Niño could cut Brazil’s soybean crop to 163.6mmt versus 181.2mmt under neutral conditions, according to Serasa Experian, with most losses in the west-central region. 🇧🇷 Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean planting reached 40% complete, ahead of last year’s 36% pace.

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🌽 Harvest Progress: US corn harvest jumped to 60% complete last week, still trailing the 66% five-year average, while soybeans hit 79% and pulled ahead of the 77% average. 🌾 Winter wheat planting reached 76%, just shy of its 77% average pace.

📉 Soybean & Corn Futures: Jan27 soybeans fell 16 cents to about $12.53, a two-month low, after Brazil’s real plunged roughly 12% following Lula’s surprise reelection. 🌽 Dec26 corn slipped a penny to $4.55, its lowest close since early July, pressured by soybeans, harvest progress, and weaker crude.

🇧🇷 Brazil Election Fallout: Lula’s win is a setback for Brazil’s farm lobby, which backed Flávio Bolsonaro and has clashed with Lula over land rights, environmental rules, and taxes. 🤝 The group now plans to work with Congress and the executive branch to push for relief for struggling farmers.

🚢 Wheat & the Black Sea: Dec26 SRW wheat dropped 9 cents to $6.16, its lowest since early July, on reports Russia is weighing proposals to secure Black Sea grain shipments. ⚠️ Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell 62% in September, and rerouting through the Baltic hasn’t yet made up the difference.

📊 CFTC COT Changes: Starting in December, the CFTC will release its Commitments of Traders report twice a week, on Wednesdays and Fridays at 2:30pm CST. 🗓️ We’ll keep publishing full Fund Tracker charts weekly and update our Daily Fund Tracker as new data drops.

🚛 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections hit 2.5mmt, up 20% week over week, with China taking about 67% and year-to-date totals running 42% ahead of last year. 📦 Corn shipments came in at the low end of expectations at 625,233mt, while wheat disappointed at 183,824mt, with year-to-date totals down 35%.

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🇧🇷 Lula da Silva won a fourth term in Sunday’s runoff, edging out Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2% and becoming the first candidate in Brazil’s modern democracy to lose the first round but win the runoff. Bolsonaro is refusing to recognize the result; his Liberal Party now holds the most seats in both chambers of Congress, and the upset ranks as one of the biggest misses in US prediction market history after Kalshi had Bolsonaro’s odds as high as 88%.

💱 The Brazilian real plunged more than 10% against the US dollar as the “Bolsonaro trade” unwinds, adding to worries over debt, fiscal health, and the disputed result. A weaker real makes Brazilian soybeans cheaper on the world market, which is pressuring soybean futures this morning, with corn and wheat also trading lower.

🌽 The USDA corrected its September corn data after a processing error in Kansas and Nebraska, raising Nebraska’s yield to 182 bpa and cutting Kansas to 118 bpa. The national September yield was nudged up to 178.8 bpa, while the October forecast of 181.2 bpa stayed unchanged, adding to doubts about the reliability of USDA crop estimates.

📉 Large money managers were net sellers of 82k corn contracts for the week ending October 20 and have cut their net long by 250k contracts since peaking in mid-September. Funds also sold 28k soybean contracts and 19k SRW wheat contracts.

🫘 USDA’s Brazil attaché forecasts a record 184mmt Brazilian soybean crop, up 2% from last year but below USDA’s official 186mmt estimate. Good rainfall has helped planting, but persistent rain and severe weather in southern Brazil, along with El Niño’s expected effect on harvest, are risks to watch.

🚢 USDA reported a flash sale Friday of 116,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Even so, accumulated corn sales are still running 34% behind last year’s pace.

🐄 Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was strongly bullish, with September placements falling 12% year over year to a record monthly low of 1.78 million head, the third straight month of record lows. Heifers made up 37.8% of cattle on feed, down slightly from last year, which suggests some producers are holding back replacements but are not yet expanding herds aggressively.

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🚢 Export Sales Surge—Soybean sales hit 2.8mmt for the week ending Oct 15, well above the prior week and four-week average, with China the top buyer. Corn sales also beat expectations at 1.5mmt (Mexico leading), while wheat disappointed again at just 239,600mt. 📈

🇨🇳 China Flash Sales Continue—USDA reported another flash sale Thursday of 202,000mt of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery. Since October 14, China has bought roughly 2.4mmt (89mil bushels) of US soybeans via flash sales. 🫘

📊 Grain Futures Update—Dec26 corn slipped ~2¢ to $4.61, and Dec26 SRW wheat fell ~2¢ to $6.25 on harvest pressure and Black Sea peace talk hopes, as a ceasefire could unleash a flood of cheap wheat exports. Nov26 soybeans bucked the trend, climbing ~8¢ to $12.53 on the strong export sales print. 🌾

💧 Drought Monitor—Scattered Corn Belt rains brought no notable relief, with conditions worsening in Kentucky, Indiana, and central Illinois as 30% of the region sits in drought. Meanwhile, rainfall in the Southern Plains improved conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma, giving the HRW wheat crop a welcome boost. 🌧️

🇧🇷 South American Weather—Southern Brazil is forecast to get 1–5 inches above-normal rainfall over the next 15 days, with flooding risks in Paraná that could slow corn and soybean planting. Argentina stays dry through mid-November, though the wheat impact is expected to be minimal. 🌎

🛢️ Oil Prices Spike—Brent jumped 4% to $113.17 (highest close since early May), and WTI rose 2.4% to $99.47 after a Houthi drone targeted Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field and a tanker was struck near Oman. The US is reportedly moving a third carrier strike group toward the region, though Middle East crude exports have largely recovered above prewar levels. ⚠️

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🇷🇺🇺🇦 US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are expected to resume in November, possibly in Abu Dhabi, after Putin agreed following Wednesday’s meeting with US officials. The talks will focus on post-war security guarantees, though deep divisions remain and US-Ukraine ties have frayed after Trump’s diesel export deal with Russia.

🌾📉 Wheat futures tumbled on hopes for improved Black Sea shipping, with Dec26 Chicago wheat down 15 cents to $6.28 and Dec26 KC wheat off 18 cents to $6.73. Corn bounced from a 14-week low to close up about a penny at $4.63, while Nov26 soybeans slipped 3 cents to $12.45 under harvest pressure and record crop expectations.

🌊🌎 Investors are bracing for a potentially historic El Niño, with money managers adjusting portfolios for market disruptions that could last into early 2027. Droughts and floods could hit crop production and push food prices higher, with Indonesia, Brazil, and Colombia flagged as most vulnerable.

🇨🇳🫘 USDA announced more soybean flash sales Wednesday, including 134,000mt (5mil bushels) to China for 2026/27 delivery. Exporters also sold 165,000mt (6mil bushels) to Spain for the same marketing year.

⛽🌽 US ethanol production climbed to a five-week high at 1.094mil barrels per day, up 2.7% from the prior week but down 1.6% year over year. Stocks rose to 24.56mil barrels, and Corn Belt margins strengthened to a range of 20 to 65 cents per gallon positive.

₿📈 Bitcoin jumped as much as 2.4% to $84,737 Wednesday alongside tech stocks, fueled by strong earnings and AI enthusiasm, with spot Bitcoin ETFs pulling in $2.3 billion over the past month. Analysts cautioned the rally may reflect short covering rather than sustained demand, especially with trading volume remaining flat.