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Trump Confirms $12bil Farm Aid Package: What Do We Know??
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚜 Farm Aid & Tractor PricesPresident Trump announced a $12 billion farm aid package on Monday and urged ag equipment makers to lower tractor prices — blaming environmental regulations for higher costs. The administration plans to lift some of those rules to reduce equipment expenses.• $11B → one-time payments to row-crop farmers under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program• $1B → specialty crops• Eligibility: AGI below $900k for 2022–24 tax years• Acreage reporting due by Dec 19 — 5pm ET• Payments expected by Feb 28, 2026FBA looks much more like ECAP than the old MFP. Rates aren’t out yet.Covered crops: Barley, Chickpeas, Corn, Cotton, Lentils, Oats, Peanuts, Peas, Rice, Sorghum, Soybeans, Wheat, Canola, Crambe, Flax, Mustard, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sesame & Sunflower.📊 USDA Crop Production Report—Today 11:00am CSTTraders expect minimal changes to US ending stocks:• Corn & wheat → slight declines• Soybeans → modest increaseGlobal: slightly more beans & wheat, slightly fewer corn stocks.🇧🇷 Brazil Crop OutlookAgRural projects:• Corn: 135.3mmt (↓ from 141.1mmt record last year)• Soybeans: 178.5mmt (unchanged)Dry southern weather remains a risk to yields.The US crop is ~3.2× bigger than Brazil’s upcoming corn crop—but Brazil will export ~33% of production vs the US at 18–19%. 📦🇨🇳 Flash Sale to ChinaAnother soybean flash sale Monday:• 132,000mt (5 mil bu) → China for 25/26 deliverySince late October, China has now booked 2.85mmt (105 mil bu) via flash sales.🚢 Export InspectionsWeek ending Dec 4:• Soybeans: 1mmt—+9% vs wk prior but -41% vs last year• Corn: 1.5 mmt—above expectations, +36% vs last year• Wheat: 393kmt—+59% vs last yearChina finally showed up—119,895 mt of beans were inspected at the Gulf.PNW still quiet: only one cargo to Taiwan from WA/OR.📝 Export Sales (still catch-up reports)Week ending Nov 6:• Beans: 510,600 mt—down 59% w/w (China lead buyer)• Corn: 979,500 mt—down 51% w/w (Japan lead buyer)• Wheat: 462,500 mt—up 8% w/w (Japan lead buyer)
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Trump to Announce $12 Billion Farmer Aid Package TODAY
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.The Trump administration is expected to announce a $12 billion aid package for farmers today. The announcement will take place around 2 this afternoon in Washington, DC. About $11 billion will go to crop farmers through the new Farmer Bridge Assistance program, with the rest going toward other commodities. The funds have been authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act and will be administered by the FSA.🎯 China Soybean Purchases Back in Gear!China resumed buying US soybeans late last week. US exporters reported 462,000mt (17M bushels) sold to China for 25/26 delivery. Since late October, China’s total buys sit at 2.7mmt (~100M bu)… still a long way from the 12mmt commitment. 📉🤝 US–China Trade CallUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer, and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng held a “productive” video call Friday. The big talking point: the new trade truce and soybean commitments.🗓️ The wrinkle:The White House originally said 12mmt by Dec 31, but last week Bessent suggested deliveries would instead occur by the end of February—raising fresh questions about the terms of this “commitment.”📊 Fund Activity: Catch-Up CFTC DataThe CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report:Funds bought 76k corn contracts 🌽Funds bought 83k soybean contracts 🌱→ Net long 120k = biggest since April 2018Funds bought 34k SRW wheat contracts 🌾The big soybean buying lines up with the late-October trade truce.CFTC says data will be fully current by late January.🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean UpdatePlanting is nearly wrapped up:91% planted vs 95% last yearMostly complete in Mato Grosso and other top statesNew crop estimates vary widely:Patria: 171.9mmtConab: 177.6mmtUSDA: 175mmt🌧️ Next 10 days: Most of Brazil sees rainfall—especially the dry south🇺🇸 Early USDA Acreage OutlookUSDA’s first look at 26/27:Corn: 95M acres (↓ 3.7%)Soybeans: 85M acres (↑ 4.8%)Wheat: 44M acres (↓ 2.9%)These numbers reflect expectations from USDA’s Nov. 14 WASDE.
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Corn Demand is STRONG - Why Can't the Market Rally?!
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Grain Export Demand Still 🔥USDA reported multiple flash corn sales on Thursday:• 100,800mt to Colombia• 392,500mt to Mexico➡️ Both for 2025/26 MYCorn demand remains fantastic — 🚢 exports + ⚗️ ethanol running near record pace — yet futures just can’t seem to catch a bid.📦 “Catch-Up” Export Sales ReportWeek ending Oct 30:• Corn: 2mmt — down 📉 11% WoW (Mexico biggest buyer)• Soybeans: 1.2mmt — down 📉 14% WoW (Unknown biggest buyer; China finally showed with 232kmt)• Wheat: 505kmt — down slightly (Mexico biggest buyer)🐖 China’s Pork Prices Keep Sinking• Pork values now the lowest since 2022• Prices -18% YTD, expected to fall further• Weak consumer spending + slow economy• China’s sow herd only -2.1% YoY so far➡️ If cuts deepen → less feed demand → soybean implications⛽ API Flips Again on E15American Petroleum Institute now supports year-round E15 🤯✔ Joined biofuel groups urging legislation✔ Also pushing for limits on EPA refinery exemptions🔊 Pete Meyer:“Positive step but not mandatory. Stations need blender pumps + storage — not feasible in big cities.”🌾 Canada’s Record Wheat CropStatsCan final crop report:• ~40mmt wheat, 🔺11.2% YoY — new all-time record• Beats 38.5mmt estimates• Spring wheat the driver: 29.3mmt (+10.3% YoY)➡️ More pressure on a wheat market already struggling — especially spring wheat vs winter wheat🌦 Drought Monitor UpdateCorn Belt: mostly steady✔ Improvements: N. Illinois & SE Wisconsin❌ Slight worsening: MichiganHigh Plains: little change✔ Only modest improvement in NE KansasUS Areas in Drought:• Corn — 30%• Soybeans — 30%• Winter Wheat — 35%• Spring Wheat — 16%• Cattle — 25%
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Scott Bessent Thinks You're Dumb, LIES About China Soybean "Deal"
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚜 China Soybeans: Goalposts Moving?China is expected to fulfill its US soybean purchase agreement… eventually. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China will meet its commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. The White House originally said by year-end, but Bessent now expects by the end of February. To date, China has purchased just 2.2mmt (~19%) of the required volume. 🤨The White House "Fact" Sheet stated—verbatim—that China will buy at least 12mmt during the last two months of 2025… plus 25mmt annually through 2028. Now the timeline has magically shifted. Sure sounds like some goalpost-dragging. 📦 Chinese shipments of US soybeans are set to ramp up in the coming weeks:At least 6 vessels scheduled to load from the Gulf1 vessel already en route—the first since MayStill well behind typical purchase paceLow Chinese demand = pressure on soybean pricesUS sorghum shipments to China have also resumed for the first time since March.🌽 Iowa Eyeing More Corn in 2026Iowa State University’s Dennis Johnson says farmers in north-central Iowa are leaning toward more corn acres next year. Corn has been the consistent moneymaker—despite some southern rust this year—and early 2026 budgets still favor corn over beans.He advised not to go overboard on fungicides next season… Just scout the crop.⛽️ Ethanol Production = New RecordUS output hit 1.13mil bpd last week—an all-time high.Stocks rose to 22.51mil barrels.But… ethanol margins have softened:Roughly –$0.05 to +$0.25/gal depending on the plant⚓ Black Sea Insurance Costs ExplodeUkrainian attacks on Russian-affiliated vessels have caused insurance rates to triple for ships calling at Russian ports. Escalating risks raise concerns about retaliation:➡️ Potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure➡️ Ongoing pressure on global grain trade dynamics📉 US Jobs Market Cooldown ContinuesADP reports 32,000 private-sector job losses in November vs. +47,000 in October. Hiring has slowed sharply under tariff fallout + tighter immigration.Monthly job growth:62k (Jul–Sep 2025) vs 186k (same period 2024) 😬Markets see an 87% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 10.
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Putin Threatens Black Sea - Corn & Wheat Bounce + China Soybean Update
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇷🇺 Black Sea Threats Push Grain HigherTensions escalated again this week after Russia warned it may retaliate for a recent surge in Ukrainian attacks on its tanker fleet. Vladimir Putin said Moscow could strike vessels belonging to countries that support Ukraine and even cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea if attacks continue. Several Russian-affiliated tankers have already been targeted over the last week — a notable escalation from prior sporadic incidents.Corn and wheat futures responded quickly: Mar26 corn +5¢ to $4.50, and March Chicago wheat +6¢ to $5.41. Russia and Ukraine together are expected to account for 27% of global wheat exports and 13.5% of global corn exports this year. 🌎🌱 China Soybean Commitment: Can They Still Do It?Some traders still believe China can meet its 12mmt US soybean purchase pledge, but they’ve got a long way to go. State-owned importers — especially Cofco — are expected to ramp up buying in the next few weeks, including shipments destined for state reserves.The problem? US beans are still priced at a premium versus South America, leaving little commercial incentive. To date, China has purchased only 2.25mmt — just 18.8% of its commitment. To hit the target, they’d need to buy more than 2mmt per week for the rest of the year.There are 20 business days left in 2025, meaning China must average 487,450mt per business day to reach the White House goal. Most analysts view recent buying as short-term political optics, not a durable shift toward US supplies.🚢 More US Soybeans Heading to ChinaReuters reports at least six bulk vessels will load soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals in the next two weeks. Based on USDA flash data, China has “officially” purchased 2.2mmt so far this marketing year—but the true number could be higher due to USDA reporting delays.These shipments likely reflect previously reported sales. China taking a small batch of US soybeans is not new information and not bullish.💵 Bridge Payment Coming Next WeekAg Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed Tuesday that a farm “bridge payment” will be announced next week. The program is designed to provide short-term relief while longer-term trade and assistance plans are finalized.President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” expanded farm support, but many groups argue more is needed heading into next season. Even before the bridge payment, the US is on track to spend $40+ billion on farm payments this year—the second-highest total since 1933. 🌾📈 Farmer Sentiment SurgesUS farmer sentiment jumped sharply in November. Purdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer rose to 139, the highest since June, with much of the increase driven by stronger future expectations. The Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144.This was the first survey after the newly negotiated US–China trade truce, likely boosting optimism.
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