Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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✅ Corn & soybean futures recap — what's driving the move higher
✅ Trump extends Iran ceasefire — and what it means for crude oil & biofuels
✅ Senate eyes $15–$20B in additional farmer aid — but is it actually coming?
✅ Biofuel demand surging as crude oil climbs 30%+ since the start of the Iran war
✅ Kalshi & Polymarket moving into crypto perpetual futures — could this force CME's hand on 24/7 commodity markets?
✅ ADM crude corn oil spill on the Mississippi River at Red Wing, MN
✅ USDA flash sales — 12 million bushels of corn sold to Colombia and unknown destinations

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 US winter wheat conditions continued to deteriorate last week, with only 30% of the crop rated good-excellent — the lowest reading for this week since 2023 and third lowest in a decade. 📉 The situation is even more dire in top HRW-producing states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, where just 14.6% of the crop is rated good-excellent and nearly half sits in poor-very poor condition.

🌽 Corn planting surged to 11% complete, outpacing the 9% historical average, while soybeans rocketed to 12% planted — more than double the 5% average. 🌱 Spring wheat planting also matched its historical average at 12%, signaling strong early-season momentum across the board.

💰 The Trump administration is eyeing tariff revenue as a tool to boost domestic fertilizer production, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins outlining plans to expand capacity within 12–18 months. 🏭 In the meantime, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden is pressing fertilizer companies for concrete, actionable expansion plans rather than open-ended talks.

🇧🇷 Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly in the books at 92% complete, right in line with last year's pace, while favorable weather is supporting the developing safrinha corn crop. ☁️ However, CropProphet's Euro model data suggest Brazil's second corn areas could see just 47% of normal rainfall over both the 1–7 and 8–14 day forecast windows.

🇨🇳 China's agriculture ministry is projecting a 6.1% drop in soybean imports this year, with declines reaching 26% by 2035 as Beijing pushes hard for greater food self-sufficiency. 🥩 Pork, beef, and dairy imports are also expected to fall year-over-year, while total grain production is forecast to climb 5.3% by 2035.

🚢 US corn export inspections came in at 1.7 MMT for the week ending April 16, near the top of pre-report estimates, while soybean shipments hit 748,678 MT — up 34% versus the same week last year. 🌾 Wheat stole the show with inspections of 518,141 MT, a jaw-dropping 90% jump from the prior week, with China accounting for roughly 60% of total weekly inspections across all commodities.

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🌍 US Fertilizer Diverted Overseas — Traders are snapping up imported urea at the Port of New Orleans and flipping it to global markets as soaring international prices create a massive arbitrage opportunity. CME Gulf Urea peaked at $720/ton last week, and domestic farmers are feeling the squeeze with no relief in sight.

⚔️ Middle East Tensions Escalate—The US Navy fired on and boarded an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman over the weekend, throwing the fragile ceasefire into chaos despite Trump's claims of a near-finalized deal. WTI crude surged ~$5/bbl this morning to $89/bbl, though that's still well off last week's $106 peak.

🌧️ Planting Disruptions Across the Corn Belt—Heavy weekend rains soaked Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana—with some pockets seeing over 4" in 72 hours—throwing a wrench in corn and soybean planting progress. Meanwhile, HRW wheat country stayed bone dry and dealt with a brief freeze, adding more stress to an already strained crop outlook.

📊 Funds Selling Corn in Size — Large money managers dumped 58k corn contracts in the week ending April 14, bringing total selling since the late-March peak to 127k contracts. They still hold a net long of 153k contracts, with modest selling also seen in soybeans and SRW wheat.

🐄 Cattle Markets Rattled by Border Rumors — Cattle futures hit limit-down on speculation that Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins would announce a reopening of the US-Mexico feeder cattle border — but no announcement came, with screwworm confirmed just 200 miles from the line. The April 1 Cattle on Feed report came in neutral-to-friendly, with placements down 7% and heifers still at 37% of inventory—signaling no serious herd rebuilding just yet.

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌧️ Heavy rainfall is disrupting planting across the Corn Belt, with some Iowa farmers potentially sidelined for another week. Speculation about acreage shifts to soybeans due to fertilizer costs is not universal, as many producers pre-booked inputs ahead of the Iran conflict.

🏜️ USDA's latest drought monitor shows improved conditions in parts of the northern Corn Belt thanks to recent rains, but Kentucky, southern Illinois, and parts of Kansas and Nebraska continue to dry out. A staggering 68% of the winter wheat crop is now under drought — the worst reading since December 2022.

🌾 Wheat futures surged Thursday on fears of a weekend freeze hitting Plains winter wheat areas on top of already parched conditions. The Kansas City May contract climbed ~17 cents to close around $6.42/bu, its highest level in over a year.

💰 Agricultural groups are pushing the Trump administration for roughly $15 billion in farm aid as part of a Middle East supplemental spending package. The proposal includes $10 billion for specialty crops, while lawmakers are also eyeing the Homegrown Fertilizer Act to boost domestic production.

📦 US corn export sales came in strong at 1.4 MMT for the week ending April 9, up 14% from the four-week average with Japan leading purchases. Soybean sales hit a marketing year low at just 248k MT, while wheat sales also came in near the low end of expectations.

🕊️ President Trump expressed optimism Thursday about a potential US-Iran deal, citing Iranian concessions on nuclear ambitions and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has not publicly confirmed these terms, and many global leaders expect any formal agreement could take up to six months.

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Fertilizer prices are climbing, corn futures are rallying, and Kalshi just entered the commodity trading game—here's everything moving ag markets this week.
The Trump administration is weighing support packages for farmers dealing with elevated fertilizer costs, while the DOJ investigates potential price collusion in the sector. 
Could Kalshi's new 24/7 corn, soybean, and wheat prediction markets actually shake up the CME? We dig into what that could mean for retail and institutional traders alike.
On the crop side, early planting has been disrupted by heavy Corn Belt rainfall—but USDA data shows both corn and soybeans are still running ahead of the five-year average. May corn settled near $4.51, its highest point in over a week.
Plus, ethanol production hits another seasonal high (up nearly 10% year-over-year).
NOPA's March crush data sets a near record despite missing estimates, soy oil stocks hit a 13-year March high, and the S&P 500 closes above 7,000 for the first time ever.
All that plus E15 legislation updates, Corn Belt weather maps, and ethanol margin charts.