Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 Crop Conditions Slide as Corn Belt Bakes – US corn ratings fell to 63% good-to-excellent (down from 67%) and soybeans dropped to 63% (from 66%) as hot, dry weather hit the Corn Belt hard. 🌵 North and South Dakota are the biggest trouble spots, with corn there rated just 50% good-excellent across nearly 11% of US planted acres.

☀️ Driest July in Over a Decade—Corn country saw just 3.42" of rain in July, the lowest since 2014, paired with above-normal heat. 📉 Analysts warn trend yield is at risk unless August delivers timely rain and cooler temps.

🌾 European Wheat Pulls Back – Prices eased Monday as traders found Russia-Ukraine strikes hadn't seriously damaged key export terminals, while good harvest weather in Europe added pressure. ⚠️ Still, Ukraine pushed the UN Security Council for global action to protect Black Sea shipping routes.

📉 Corn & Soybeans Tumble Monday – Dec26 corn fell 14¢ to $4.74/bu and Nov26 soybeans dropped nearly 40¢ to $12.14/bu on easing oil prices and better weather outlooks. 🌾 Wheat also slipped, with Sep26 Chicago down 18¢ to $6.60 and Sep26 KC off 16¢ to $7.29.

🇨🇳 Fresh Soybean Sales to China—The USDA flashed a 132,000mt soybean sale to China plus another 126,000mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 Check out the China Soybean Purchase Tracker for the full picture.

🚢 Export Inspections Mixed – Corn shipments dipped 7.7% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybeans rose 9.3% to 348,850mt (though still down 18% YoY). 🌾 Wheat stood out with a 72% weekly jump to 394,785mt, up 36% from last year.

🐄 Mexico Border Reopening Boosts Meatpackers—JBS and Tyson shares surged (+10% and +5.7%) after USDA announced a phased reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports starting late August. 📉 Cattle futures tumbled in response, with many feeder contracts hitting daily limit-down.

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🌾 Grains Sell Off Hard — Wheat, corn, and soybeans all dropped sharply to start the week after wheat posted downside reversals Friday. Ukraine is pushing new ship-safety measures with Russia and has called a UN Security Council meeting over attacks on grain vessels.

🛢️ Mideast Tensions Ease, Oil Slides—The US and Iran paused military strikes over the weekend, sending WTI crude more than $6/bbl lower this morning even though it's still up ~15% over two weeks. That pressure is rippling across the whole commodity complex.

🔥 Heat Dome Locks In Over the Corn Belt — A stationary heat dome is pushing temps 10-15°F above normal with brutal humidity across the Plains and Corn Belt this week. A brief cooldown may show up later this week, and a shift toward rain in the forecast likely helped trigger this morning's selloff.

💰 House Passes $12B Farm Aid Package — The $95B budget resolution squeaked through 216-214, pairing farm aid with $73B in defense/Iran-war spending. Farm groups are cheering the aid, but the Senate still has to pass its own version before anything's final.

📊 Funds Pile Into Corn & Beans — The latest COT data shows managed money net buying 45k corn and 55k soybean contracts, pushing both net-long positions to their highest since early June. Wheat saw smaller buying too, with funds adding 16k SRW contracts.

🐄 Mexican Cattle Imports Set to Resume — The Douglas, AZ border crossing reopens to Mexican cattle August 24, with more ports to follow, after being closed since November 2024 over screwworm concerns. Disinfectant dip vats will screen all incoming cattle as the closest active case sits 325 miles away.

📈 Cattle Reports: Mostly Neutral — Friday's Cattle on Feed numbers landed right in line with expectations, so traders shrugged it off. The Cattle Inventory report was more mixed—a shrinking beef cow herd is bullish, but more replacement heifers lean neutral-to-bearish.

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🛢️ Oil prices surged Thursday, with WTI crude jumping 6.2% to $92.19/barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea raised concerns about global oil supplies. Higher crude prices are also pushing fuel costs higher, with the national average gasoline price climbing to $4.09/gallon. ⛽ 
🌽 Grain markets were mixed. Soybeans extended their rally, with November 2026 futures gaining about 5 cents on support from rising crude oil prices and forecasts for hotter Corn Belt weather next week. Corn added about 3 cents, while wheat turned lower after early gains as traders took profits despite ongoing Black Sea shipping disruptions. 📈 
🚢 USDA announced a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year. 
🌦️ Drought conditions worsened across parts of the Corn Belt and Northern Plains as hot, dry weather persisted. Conditions improved in Kentucky, but drought expanded in the Dakotas, northern Illinois, southeastern Minnesota, and southeastern Nebraska. South Dakota even declared a statewide drought emergency. Current drought coverage includes 20% of corn, 18% of soybeans, 47% of winter wheat, 25% of spring wheat, and 44% of U.S. cattle. 🌾 
🌾 North Dakota's spring wheat crop is coming in below USDA expectations. Crop tour scouts estimate yields at 48 bpa, well below the USDA's 58 bpa forecast. While dry weather has reduced disease pressure, prolonged heat and limited rainfall have trimmed yield potential, and additional heat could lower yields further before harvest. 
📊 Weekly export sales disappointed again. Corn sales totaled 13 million bushels, soybeans 2 million bushels, and wheat 11 million bushels, with all three commodities landing at or below trade expectations. Mexico was the top buyer of corn and wheat, while China was the largest soybean buyer.

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🚢 Russia restricts Novorossiysk port traffic — Russia has imposed overnight shipping restrictions (midnight–5am) at Novorossiysk, its largest grain export port, due to rising drone attack threats. Grain rerouted from the Sea of Azov is making the port even more critical, though daytime operations continue normally.

🌾 Wheat futures surge on Black Sea tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~28 cents to $7.06/bu and KC wheat gained ~31 cents to $7.64/bu as Russian strikes hit Odesa region ports and infrastructure. Corn and soybeans also climbed on looming Corn Belt heat and rising freight insurance costs.

🇪🇺 EU grain production set to plunge—European grain output is projected to fall over 9% from last year, the steepest drop in two decades, as heat waves crush wheat and corn yields. Higher fertilizer/fuel costs from the US-Iran war pushed farmers to cut inputs and acreage, sending Paris wheat futures up ~20% this month.

🌱 ND wheat tour wraps up—Southern ND spring wheat scouted at 46 bpa (below last year's 50 but above the 5-yr average), while northwest/north-central areas came in stronger at 48 bpa. Acreage hit its lowest since 1969, with scouts surveying the fewest fields on record.

🛢️ Houthi attacks rattle oil markets — Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for strikes on two Red Sea oil tankers, sending WTI up ~3% to near $87/barrel. Trump threatened Iranian infrastructure if Strait of Hormuz attacks continue, and Iran vowed retaliation against US-linked energy facilities.

📊 CME downplays perpetual futures demand — CEO Terry Duffy said institutional clients (94% of volume) show little interest in never-expiring contracts, even as Kalshi pursues its own perpetual futures for precious metals. Duffy argued perps suit retail more than institutional hedging needs.

⛽ Ethanol production ticks up—weekly output rose to 1.09M bpd, up 5.2% week-over-week, while stocks grew to 24.48M barrels. Corn Belt margins stayed strong, running 10–35 cents positive per Reuters data.

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🌽 Iowa Weather & Crops — Warm, dry conditions gave Iowa farmers 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork last week, pushing corn and soybeans through key growth stages, though dry soil is becoming a concern as corn enters pollination. 🌧️ A more active pattern with widespread rain chances is on tap for the Corn Belt this week, though the GFS turned notably drier (and warmer) overnight vs. yesterday's run.

🌾 Wheat Rallies on Black Sea Tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~9 cents to $7.33/bu and KC wheat gained 4 cents to $6.78/bu after Russia banned vessels from anchoring at two Sea of Azov ports. 🚢 Analysts already slashed Russia's July export forecast 25%, while ongoing strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea ports have cut its export capacity by roughly a third.

🇺🇸 Grassley Pushes Market Solutions — Senator Grassley says farmers need stronger markets over more government payments, backing year-round E15 as a bigger long-term fix than the proposed $11B aid package. 💰 He's also renewing calls to cut production costs, pointing to his Fertilizer Research Act and pressing the Trump administration on why Brazil's costs run so much lower.

📉 Sovecon Cuts Russian Wheat Forecast — Sovecon trimmed its 2026 Russian wheat estimate to 88.3mmt from 88.9mmt on weak southern yields, down from last season's 91.4mmt crop. ⚔️ The downgrade lands right as Black Sea shipping tensions heat back up.

🥇 Kalshi Eyes Metals Perpetuals — Kalshi has asked the CFTC to approve perpetual futures on gold, silver, and platinum, building on its May approval for crypto perps. ⚖️ CME is, meanwhile, suing over whether these "perpetual futures" are really just unregulated swaps, with Kalshi's bitcoin perp alone moving $31.5B in 24 hr volume.