The Canadian Real Estate Investor

Canadian borrowers and investors are shifting from variable and long fixed terms toward 3-year fixed mortgages in 2026, seeking short-term certainty without locking into long rates, and how that decision ties into portfolio planning, refinancing risk, and programs like CMHC MLI Select.
Fixed (3- or 5-year) = predictable payments, easier modeling for equity/refinance and portfolio scaling.
Variable = a macro bet (rates must fall for it to be advantageous); can cause sudden payment spikes.
3-year fixed = compromise: short-term protection with flexibility if rates decline; financing programs (e.g., CMHC MLI Select) can affect timing and cost.

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We cover a whole bunch of breaking news in this episode.
Construction productivity is collapsing (−37% since 2001) amid a massive retiring workforce and small‑firm dominance, constraining new supply and raising costs.
Affordability gains are concentrated in condos — not broad-based — while taxes, development charges and stalled starts (RESCON’s HST‑holiday pitch) risk deepening the supply shortfall.
Financial and market stress is rising: power‑of‑sale listings are spiking in Ontario, rental affordability is worsening regionally (Nova Scotia worst), and growing private‑credit exposure could tighten financing for builders and buyers.
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The Bank of Canada and Better Dwelling argue Toronto’s condo boom was driven by investor speculation and presale funding, creating Ponzi‑like dynamics where ongoing new-buyer inflows were needed to sustain prices and projects; when demand and returns fell, many projects stalled, inventory surged, and systemic risk materialized.
3 major bullet points:
Presale-dependent financing + high investor leverage (small deposits, assignment flipping) made the development model reliant on continuous new buyers rather than end-user demand.
Rising interest rates, easing population growth, and oversupply collapsed expected short-term returns, leaving many investors with negative‑cash‑flow units and unsold inventory.
Consequences: record unsold/returned units, halted starts and cancellations, developer stress : a market correction that resembles Ponzi finance dynamics but lacks outright fraud.
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Canada's weak housing market start to 2026, debating whether January's 16.2% year-over-year sales decline signals a deeper slowdown or just winter seasonality.⁠⁠​
National weakness across metrics: Sales down 16.2% YoY, new listings up 7.3%, sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 45%, and HPI down 4.9% YoY⁠⁠​
Regional divergence: Ontario markets (Hamilton, Oakville) down double digits, while secondary markets like Quebec City and Sudbury show double-digit gains⁠⁠​Investor positioning:
Buyers have more negotiating leverage; sellers need to price correctly as multiple offers are limited to select markets
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In this episode we sit down with a Vancity leader, Ryan Mckinley to unpack multiplex financing and policy across Canada. We explore why most multiplexes in Vancouver are strata-title, promoting homeownership, while Toronto’s market is trending toward rentals. Hear practical financing options for homeowners, investors, and small developers, plus a local case study and market outlook. We discuss the big opportunity for Toronto as condo ownership supply tightens, and how multiplexes can deliver lower construction and management costs, greater exit flexibility, and a pathway to more affordable ownership.
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