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Uncertainty remains over whether a new round of talks between the U.S. and Iran will take place in Pakistan before the ceasefire agreement between the two countries is set to expire on Wednesday. As of Tuesday afternoon, there has been no official confirmation from either Washington or Tehran on whether the talks will happen.
Drop Site’s Ryan Grim and Jeremy Scahill discuss the current state of play, President Donald Trump’s comments, Iran’s view of the negotiations, and how developments in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend exacerbated tensions. They also play clips of Jeremy’s interview with prominent Iranian analyst Hassan Ahmadian, Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at Tehran University.



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The war against Iran launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28 has not gone according to plan. What was initially portrayed as a quick regime change action that would destroy the Islamic Republic and spark a domestic uprising soon morphed into a war of attrition in which Iran stunned the U.S., Israel, and international observers. Six weeks after the opening strikes that assassinated much of Iran’s leadership, it is President Donald Trump who appears desperate to find an exit. The Iran war is now at a definitive crossroads and the coming days will prove decisive.
While the U.S. and Israel have pounded Iran with massive airstrikes, killing more than 3,300 people, Tehran has inflicted unprecedented damage on U.S. military infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. It forced the evacuation of more than a dozen military bases and other facilities and repeatedly hit Israel with ballistic missile and drone strikes, despite daily claims by the U.S. and Israel that its weapons capacity had been all but wiped out. Iran’s consolidation of control over the strategically-vital Strait of Hormuz has proven a potent symbol of its ability to impact not only the global economy, but to accentuate the political and strategic crisis Trump faces.
The two-week ceasefire agreed between the U.S. and Iran on April 7 is set to expire on Wednesday. Tehran was deeply skeptical of accepting a temporary agreement with the U.S. Twice in one year, the U.S. and Israel launched massive military attacks against Iran in the middle of supposed negotiations. Iranian officials and analysts have consistently said they believe that scenario is likely to be repeated. But Iran ultimately moved forward with the Islamabad talks, after concluding that it had a stronger negotiating position than at any point since the 2015 nuclear agreement was voided in 2018 by Trump during his first term as president.
In a wide-ranging interview, Drop Site’s Jeremy Scahill spoke with Iranian analyst Dr. Hassan Ahmadian, Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at Tehran University. Since the war began, Ahmadian has become one of the most prominent Iranian commentators in the Islamic world because of his viral appearances on Al Jazeera Arabic. He is frequently placed on debate shows where he battles as many as seven other guests and hosts. Scahill and Ahmadian talk about what Iran would be willing to accept as part of a deal with the U.S., how it could ensure that the U.S. and Israel do not renege on an agreement and restart the war, and how Iran will approach the issue of its enriched uranium stockpiles.
“Iranians do not trust the Trump administration at all. But what they’re banking on is the fact that they stood against an aggression and forced them out of this aggression, short of achieving any of their goals,” Ahmadian said. “The Iranians see that they can balance asymmetrically the power of the United States and can push it back.”
Ahmadian and Scahill discuss the internal decision-making process in Iran, debates among the political, religious and military echelons, and the role of Parliament Speaker Mohammed Baghar-Ghalibaf, Tehran’s lead negotiator in the current talks with the U.S. Ahmadian also offers a comprehensive overview of Iranian strategy and its perspective on reestablishing deterrence and regional balance in the aftermath of the U.S.-Israeli wars.
“Iran wanted to push back in a way that forces its foes to think twice and thrice before attacking Iran once more. And I think they did that. The United States will think more than once before attacking Iran,” Ahmadian said. “Name another system whose top echelon are assassinated and is capable of continuing and also waging a retaliatory war effort against two big foes. I don’t see any historical parallel to this—that speaks volumes to the institutional, institutionalized level of the [Iranian] system.”



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Negotiations in Islamabad between Iran and the United States this past weekend ran for 21 hours from Saturday into Sunday and failed to produce a deal. When Vice President JD Vance emerged from the talks, he said that the U.S. had presented Iran with its “final and best offer,” framing the impasse around nuclear specifically—a framing Iran rejected. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who helped lead the Iranian delegation, said Iran and the U.S. were “inches away” from an “Islamabad MoU” following “intensive talks at highest level in 47 years,” but the talks fell through because of U.S. “maximalism, shifting goalposts and blockade.”
Meanwhile, as Israel continued to bombard Lebanon on Tuesday and Hezbollah conducted retaliatory attacks, Israeli and Lebanese government officials met in Washington, DC, for their highest-level direct talks in decades. In the run-up to the meeting, Lebanon’s presidency said the talks would focus on announcing a ceasefire and setting a start date for bilateral talks. However, Israel has said it would not discuss a ceasefire during the talks and instead would focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem in a televised address Monday rejected the planned meeting, calling the talks “futile” and urging the Lebanese government to take “a historic and heroic stance” by refusing to attend.
Drop Site’s Jeremy Scahill and Sharif Abdel Kouddous discuss the latest with Palestinian American journalist Rami Khouri , a distinguished public policy fellow at the American University of Beirut and nonresident senior fellow at the Arab Center Washington, DC.
Jeremy and Sharif also discuss the case of American born Kuwaiti journalist Ahmed Shihab-Eldin, who was arrested six weeks ago in Kuwait where he remains in detention and faces prosecution in a special tribunal over social media posts related to the Iran war.



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A fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire took hold this week as President Donald Trump insisted that the U.S. warships and troops deployed to the Middle East for the war will remain in the region.
Meanwhile, Iran’s speaker of parliament Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf will reportedly join Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in leading talks in Islamabad with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Ghalibaf reiterated that “Lebanon and the entire Resistance Axis, as Iran’s allies, form an inseparable part of the ceasefire,” following Israel’s massive bombardment of Lebanon on Wednesday just hours after the ceasefire was announced, which left more than 300 people dead and over 1,150 wounded.
Drop Site’s Ryan Grim, Jeremy Scahill, Murtaza Hussain, and Sharif Abdel Kouddous unpack the context around the ceasefire agreement, the attack on Lebanon, and what it all portends for the U.S. and the region. Lebanese journalist Lylla Younes talks about witnessing Wednesday’s brutal bombardment of Beirut, and Palestinian journalist Abubaker Abed remembers his colleague Mohammed Samir Washah, a correspondent for Al Jazeera Mubasher who was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike near Gaza City on Wednesday.



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As heavy U.S.-Israeli airstrikes pounded targets across Iran on Tuesday, President Donald Trump reiterated his extreme threats against all Iranians in a post on social media, writing: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.” Trump had previously given a deadline of Tuesday 8 p.m. ET to “Open the F****n’ Strait, you crazy b******s” otherwise the U.S. would heavily target civilian infrastructure in Iran.
Iran’s revolutionary guard warned on Tuesday that it would “deprive the U.S and its allies of the region’s oil and gas for years” if Trump carried out his threat. “We have exercised great restraint and had considerations in choosing retaliatory targets, but from now on all these considerations have been removed,” the IRGC said.
Last-ditch diplomatic efforts are under way to avert a further escalation of the war. The Iranian government has repeatedly and consistently laid out its own demands for an agreement setting out a permanent end to the war—trading concessions on its nuclear program for sanctions relief and recognition of its ability to exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Drop Site’s Sharif Abdel Kouddous and Murtaza Hussain discuss the latest with Sina Azodi, Assistant Professor of Middle East Politics at the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University.
And as the Israeli invasion and bombardment of Lebanon continues, Beirut-based Drop Site contributor Lylla Younes discusses Israel’s ongoing scorched earth campaign, its deliberate targeting of journalists and emergency workers, and its use of tactics to foment sectarianism in Lebanon.



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