The Orthogonal Bet

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Gordon Brander, a technologist and researcher currently building Deep Future, an AI tool designed to facilitate scenario planning. Gordon has worked in design and engineering at organizations including Mozilla and Google, where he used scenario planning in practice—and he’s now aiming to democratize the framework more broadly.

Together, Samuel and Gordon explore the history and mechanics of scenario planning: what it is, how it works, and what it’s actually useful for. They dig into risk versus uncertainty, epistemic humility, and Knightian uncertainty, along with the research process behind building scenarios—and the common perils and misuses that can turn the practice into self-deception. They also discuss Gordon’s AI-powered approach with Deep Future (which Samuel is advising) and how scenario planning has reshaped Gordon’s understanding of society and the world.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Florian Jehn, a researcher who studies the nature of societal collapse and the author of the blog Existential Crunch. Existential Crunch examines and summarizes scientific work in this space, serving as a living literature review of research on societal collapse.

Samuel and Florian discuss the origins of Existential Crunch, the radically interdisciplinary nature of collapse studies, and how the field cuts across domains—from the statistical study of history and the rise and fall of civilizations to catastrophic and existential risk, and the mechanics of societal resilience. They also explore what collapse might feel like from the inside, and whether we could already be living through a slow-motion version of it.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with novelist Dexter Palmer, the author of three books that deliberately resist easy categorization. As they discuss, Palmer’s work can be thought of as literary fiction infused with science-fictional tropes and textures. His debut, The Dream of Perpetual Motion, is a kind of steampunk tale; Version Control explores a near-future world with dollops of time travel; and Mary Toft; or, The Rabbit Queen is historical fiction drawn from the real 18th-century case of a woman who claimed—falsely—to be giving birth to rabbits.

Together, Arbesman and Palmer talk through Palmer’s novels, the nature of realism in science fiction, how to build a lived-in near future, the tradeoffs of exposition and “info dumps,” the strangeness of AI, the parallels between historical fiction and science fiction, and more.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Stuart Buck, executive director of the Good Science Project—a think tank devoted to better understanding how science is done and funded. Stuart previously served as a vice president at Arnold Ventures, where he focused (among other things) on scientific practice and reproducibility, and he holds a PhD in education policy and a JD. Stuart also wrote a fascinating essay last year for Palladium Magazine titled “The Case for Crazy Philanthropy,” and Samuel wanted to explore the idea with him.

Together, they discuss the nature and history of “crazy philanthropy,” why we don’t see more of it, and how to incentivize everything from risk-taking to new—and genuinely weird—types of research institutions. They also dig into metascience, neglected research, and federal science funding more broadly, including potential scenarios for where U.S. science might head next. This conversation was recorded in September 2025, so a few references may be slightly dated.

Tinkered Thinking is the pseudonym of the author behind White Mirror, a collection of stories that explore the implications of artificial intelligence and advances in computing—while offering a more optimistic lens than much of contemporary science fiction.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Tinkered Thinking about the origins of these stories and his broader evolution as a writer, including his shift from a kind of Luddism toward a more forward-looking view of technological progress. Their conversation ranges across how we examine ideas about the future, societal blind spots around technology, the impact and importance of AI, concerns about AI doomers, and the kind of future he hopes we might create.