Dynasty Nerds Podcast | Dynasty Fantasy Football

Garret Price and Andrew Mott go full “Frankenstein mode” for Combine week, building the ultimate 2026 wide receiver by assigning one prospect to each key trait. The only rule is you can only use each player once, which forces some gamesmanship as they decide where each name has the most value.

They start with Malachi Fields as the easy winner for size, the receiver who “looks like WR1 getting off the bus.” For pure long speed, both land on Brenen Thompson, the track-speed bet who could be among the fastest in the class.

For yards after catch, they give the nod to Omar Cooper, emphasizing open-field playmaking and how that trait translates across offensive systems. When it comes to hands, they agree Makai Lemon brings the best mix of reliability and highlight-level catches. Route running is the one category they treat as a clear lock, selecting Jordan Tyson as the best separator and tempo-based technician in the class.

Contested catch goes to Denzel Boston, largely because of strength through contact and the ability to win at the catch point with “vice grip” hands. For the tougher “vibes” category, IQ, they settle on Skyler Bell, a player they credit for constantly being in the right place, understanding scramble drill rules, and winning with savvy rather than pure athletic dominance.

Pedigree goes to Carnell Tate, based on recruiting profile and the full “pipeline” context. For burst and early acceleration, they choose KC Concepcion, with a quick note that measurements and speed will be huge for how the NFL views the role.

They close physicality with Chris Bell, describing a tank-built receiver who plays with real edge and contact tolerance.

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00:00 Start

01:40 WR Size

03:48 Speed

05:41 YAC

07:48 Hands

10:33 Route Running

12:21 Contested Catch

14:18 Football IQ

19:27 Pedigree

21:41 Burst

23:29 Physicality
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Rich Dotson and Garret Price are back for one of their most popular yearly shows: the real value of rookie draft picks. With the Combine running and rookie drafts right around the corner, they break down where picks actually hit, where they turn into roster cloggers, and why “not worth a first” is meaningless unless you say which first.

Garret lays out the scoring tiers they track to define outcomes. A “hit” requires at least one Tier 1 season, or multiple Tier 2 seasons, with thresholds adjusted by position. Quarterbacks need top six seasons to count as Tier 1, running backs and wide receivers need top 12, and tight ends need top three. The point is simple: if a player never reaches at least Tier 2, that pick never truly helped your starting lineup.

After adding the 2024 class to the spreadsheet, they call out early hits already logged, including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Drake Maye, Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., and Bo Nix, while noting plenty of names still need time to prove it.

The biggest takeaway is the stability at the very top. Since 2018, the 1.01 has a 100% hit rate in their sample, and top four picks hit about three quarters of the time, with even more value when you include “mid” outcomes. After that, the first round becomes far less differentiated, and they point out an odd recent trend where 1.09 to 1.12 has slightly better results than 1.05 to 1.08.

They dig into a possible reason: quarterbacks often get pushed into that 1.05 to 1.08 range in Superflex, and non-elite rookie quarterbacks are harder to “hit” by their definition. The broader lesson stays the same. Outside the top tier, it often makes sense to trade down, tier up into a proven veteran, or move picks into stronger future classes.

They hammer the second round value drop. Once you get into the 2.01 to 2.12 range, the hit rate collapses, and third round picks become true dart throws. Their advice for contenders is aggressive: if you can turn a first into multiple years of a proven producer, that is usually the winning bet because many late firsts never become lineup players.

Garret also tests a theory about late rookie drafts. If you trade late seconds and thirds for multiple fourths and fifths, the position most likely to return value is running back. Late-round running backs can become “ships to shore” quickly when injuries hit, and that short window can still flip into future seconds. They add that tight ends are often pushed down by the community chasing wide receivers, which can create value pockets in the late second and early third.

The data behind “hits” and why the top mattersWhat the hit rates say about trading picksWhy second round picks are the “Ponzi scheme”Late draft strategy: load up on running backs and tight ends.

00:00 Start

00:30 Why Rookie Picks Are Often Overvalued

03:23 Hit/Mid/Miss Definitions

10:42 Top Picks Hit Rates

16:21 Mid/Late Firsts & Second/Third Round Drop-Off

27:43 Trade Firsts for Proven Assets & Late-Round Targets

37:27 FFPC

38:46 2026 Rookie Class Outlook

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Rich Dotson and Garret Price are back with one of the cleanest ways to win trades in dynasty: the tier down. The goal is to move from Player A to a cheaper Player B when the weekly scoring gap is smaller than the market thinks, then take the “plus” in picks or players on top.

This episode is built around one core idea: if you can get similar production and add extra capital, you are gaining value without sacrificing points. That can mean targeting bad ADP, fading hype, and taking advantage of managers who overpay for the “bigger name.”

The show starts at quarterback with a bold move from Joe Burrow to Baker Mayfield, arguing the production gap can be much smaller than the startup cost gap if you price in injury volatility and the market’s perception. Rich adds that quarterback is often the easiest position to tier down and brings up Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence as other viable “score close and get younger” targets.

At wide receiver, Rich looks at tiering down from Tee Higgins to Jameson Williams, focusing on age, pricing, and how close the points can be if the situation stays favorable. The bigger rebuild-style swing is moving off A.J. Brown to Christian Watson if the plus is strong enough, accepting volatility in exchange for youth, ceiling, and a future first.

The running back discussion includes tiering down from Bucky Irving to Javonte Williams, leaning on role security after the contract. The spiciest move is a possible tier down from Jonathan Taylor to Travis Etienne, based on how close their realistic scoring ranges can be and the idea that Etienne’s market could climb fast with the right free agency outcome.

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00:00 Start
02:26 Joe Burrow - Baker Mayfield
13:51 Tee Higgins - Jameson Williams
21:22 AJ Brown - Christian Watson
27:04 FFPC
29:06 Bucky Irving - Javonte Williams
35:12 Jonathan Taylor - Travis Etienne
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Combine week mock draft season is here, and Garret Price is joined by Andrew Mott to lock in a pre-Combine baseline: a two-round Superflex, tight end premium rookie mock that captures how they feel before testing, draft capital, and landing spots reshape the board.

At 1.01, Jeremiyah Love is treated as the clear, no-drama selection in this format, with both hosts basically agreeing it would take something extreme to move off that spot. From there, Superflex value pushes Fernando Mendoza to 1.02, setting the tone for how aggressively quarterback can climb in this build.

The top receiver conversation follows quickly. Carnell Tate gets the “safe profile” stamp near the top, while Jordyn Tyson comes off the board as a tape-driven WR1 type pick, even with Combine participation questions lingering. Makai Lemon stays firmly in the mix, and KC Concepcion is framed as one of the biggest “measurements and speed” swing players of the week.

The mid-first pivots into playmaking and positional leverage, with Omar Cooper Jr. rising on the strength of space play and after-catch upside, and Kenyon Sadiq entering the conversation as the tight end premium value play. The back half of Round 1 rounds out with archetype receiver builds and more scarcity pressure: Denzel Boston and Germie Bernard come off the board, the RB2 conversation starts with Jadarian Price, and the quarterback swing at the end lands on Ty Simpson.

Round 2 opens with running back scarcity forcing action as Jonah Coleman comes off the board early. The next pick leans into a traits-and-pathway bet with Emmett Johnson, with the discussion focusing on how receiving usage can create fantasy relevance if the opportunity appears.

Receiver profiles then split into two lanes: outside archetypes and high-upside “hit one big play” bets. Ja'Kobi Lane headlines the outside profile conversation, while Mike Washington Jr. becomes a focal RB pick because size plus usable hands can create immediate NFL interest if the testing holds.

Tight end premium comes back into play with Eli Stowers and Max Klare both getting love as prospects who could earn roles faster than the market expects. The late second becomes pure swing territory, featuring Ted Hurst and injured upside with Chris Bell, before the mock closes with another outside receiver bet in Elijah Sarratt and a final running back selection in Kaytron Allen.

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Combine week is here, and Ceiling and Floor is back before the real testing starts. ⁠Jagger May⁠ and ⁠Andrew Mott⁠ run through a slate of running backs with ceiling and floor comps, while repeating an important reminder: these are stylistic outcomes, not destiny.

The episode starts with Jeremiah Love as the clear top name in the class, with big, usage-driven upside and rare receiving potential. From there, they dig into the next tier of backs and what could swing outcomes at the next level: lateral agility for Jadarian Price, pass pro and role certainty for Emmett Johnson, and how speed testing could make or break the outlook for Jonah Coleman.

Later, the discussion turns to the broader “don’t over-draft this class” warning, especially for dynasty players who might fall in love with RB2 in this group without comparing the talent to other NFL backs. That context shows up again when they get into Kaytron Allen, Mike Washington Jr., Nicholas Singleton, and Demond Claiborne, where landing spot, role, and Combine numbers could cause major movement.

Behind Love, this class has more unanswered questions than usual. The crew argues that the Combine will be critical for sorting out who can erase athletic concerns, who needs specific coaching to unlock receiving or pass protection, and who might be pushed down boards when the testing confirms the doubts.

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00:00 Start

00:43 Jeremiyah Love

03:51 Jadarian Price

09:20 Emmett Johnson

15:33 Jonah Coleman

24:02 Kaytron Allen

27:23 Mike Washington Jr.

32:30 Nicholas Singleton

35:09 Demond Claiborne
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