20% Decline In Stocks By First Quarter 2025? Felix Zulauf on a Bubble In S&P 500, Yen Carry Trade, and Bond Market Rollercoaster
Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium
Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf consulting, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his current views on stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf expects a >1000 point correction in the S&P 500 in early 2025, and warns that a strengthening Japanese yen could unleash a wave of liquidations from investors involved in the Yen carry trade. Under such a risk-off scenario, Zulauf expects U.S. Treasury yields to decline, however he thinks the secular bear market in bonds will ultimately continue. Zulauf is not ready to call an end to the secular bull market in U.S. stocks. Recorded on December 9, 2024.
Felix Zulauf website: https://www.felixzulauf.com/
Felix Zulauf email: [email protected]
Zulauf Consulting on LinkedIn: zulauf-consulting
Zulauf Consulting YouTube Channel: @zulaufconsulting
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56:49
Active Management Still Matters in Emerging Markets | Jamie Carter
Jamie Carter, Partner and Managing Director at Variis Partners has spent much of his career focused on the world of long-only emerging-market investment boutiques. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Carter discusses the huge differences between building a long only business and a hedge fund business, why launching fund vehicles out of the UK has become more difficult, the differences in raising capital in the US, UK, and Europe, and why he thinks emerging markets are the last hold outs for fundamental active managers. He also explains why EM investors and allocators are holding their collective breath waiting to see how the Trump administration’s policies will impact global markets.
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You can learn more about Variis Partners on their website: https://www.variispartners.co.uk
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1:17:16
Rumors of Job Market Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated | Jack Farley & Max Wiethe
Jack Farley welcomes Max Wiethe, his business partner and host of the Other People’s Money podcast, for a conversation about the job market, the stock market, and the recent central banking conference they attended. Recorded on December 6, 2024.
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1:04:20
The Macroeconomic Malaise | Juliette Declercq on Debt, Tariffs, Immigration, and Yield Curve
A stalwart of the “no recession” camp for many years, Juliette Declercq of JDI Research joins Jack to argue why she thinks that recession is now the greater risk than inflation for 2025 and beyond. Declercq argues that U.S. economy has been growing beyond organic levels by relying upon debt growth and immigration. She explains her bullish view on the dollar, the two-year note, and her views on stocks and bonds. Recorded on December 2, 2024.
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1:13:57
The Investor Up 1000% With No Down Years | Chris Brown of Aristides Capital
Since Aristides Capital’s inception in August 2008, Chris Brown has returned over 1,000% for their investors with a stunning 16-year track record of no losing years. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Brown explains how they’ve been able to sustain these results and grow their business to over $300m in AUM all while operating far from the typical financial centers where hedge funds cluster. They discuss how accumulating a plethora of lower capacity strategies, hiring and working with “well intentioned nerds,” and maintaining rigorous processes for post-hoc analysis and feedback have been some of the keys to their investment success. They also touch on asset gathering from both HNW and institutional investors, attracting talent, and the reality that for small funds being in the top quartile or even decile of performance is a near necessity for reaching critical mass.
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Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.
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