The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

• 338. Timeless CRE Lessons: Market Cycles, Interest Rate Timing, Iconic Deal Failures, & Office Distress

  In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we pull back the curtain for a special episode examining the timeless lessons that hold true across commercial real estate cycles. We explore the "grandmother's money" rule for managing risk, discuss how FOMO (fear of missing out) drives market behavior, and analyze the current interest rate disruption's impact on timing and leverage. We dive deep into major headline deals over the years, including the $5.4 billion Peter Cooper Stuyvesant Village CMBS deal and other multifamily transactions. We examine current market data showing office delinquencies hitting all-time highs at 11.08%, strong 2025 issuance trends, and why this cycle's maturity defaults are easier to forecast than the 2008 crisis. Whether you're new to CRE or managing billion-dollar portfolios, these fundamental frameworks remain constant even as markets evolve. Tune in now.Episode Notes: • Market Cycle Fundamentals & The Grandmother's Money Rule (1:42)• Leverage Lessons & FOMO Across Cycles (3:56)• Current Interest Rate Disruption & Timing Markets (5:17)• The Stuyvesant Town–Peter Cooper Village CMBS Deal (24:36)• Pro Forma Loan Disasters: Bellnord & Riverton Case Studies (29:18)• Office Delinquency Hits All-Time High: Current Data Deep Dive (39:54)• Maturity Defaults vs. Term Defaults: Forecasting This Cycle (45:58)• 2025 Issuance Surge & Market Activity Trends (48:43)Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected]. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

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• 337. Wait-and-See or Cut-and-Run? The Fed's Dilemma, Political Impacts on CRE, Office Distress Opportunities & More

  In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we explore economic trends, the Fed’s policy dilemma, and government impacts on real estate, including NYC rent regulation. We highlight office real estate investment opportunities, particularly how low-occupancy properties in strong MSAs could present attractive, discounted buying opportunities. We also discuss consumer sentiment, tariff concerns, and why retailers continue to expand. Additional highlights include the conversion of a class C office building at 64 Fulton Street in Manhattan into residential units, a delinquent loan with major WeWork exposure, Kroger store closures, as well as notable multifamily transactions. Tune in now. This episode is sponsored by CREi Summit. Episode Notes:  Economic Update & Rate Cuts (0:28) Consumer Confidence & Housing Trends (8:15) AI in CRE (17:51) Distressed Office Opportunities (23:31) Office-to-Resi Conversion in NYC (30:26) Delinquent Loan with WeWork Exposure (33:39) Large D.C. Office Loan to Special Servicing (37:04) Kroger Store Closures (39:15) Multifamily Greenshoots (43:45) Programming Notes (47:17) Shoutouts (50:06) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG   Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].   Follow Trepp:   X: www.x.com/TreppWire  LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp  

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• 336. What Recession? Making Sense of (Constantly) Revised Macro Data & What it Means for CRE with Danielle DiMartino Booth & Dan McNamara

  With headlines shifting by the hour, we brought in two experts for a timely update on the macro landscape and its impact on commercial real estate (CRE). In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined again by Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist at Quill Intelligence, and Dan McNamara, Founder & CIO of Polpo Capital to give a pulse check after the June Fed meeting and changing geopolitical challenges. We discuss the outlook for 2025 rate cuts, the “higher for longer” narrative, pressing concerns around job losses, and the complexities of interpreting economic data in today’s uncertain environment. In commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), we talk about strong issuance, predictable delinquency rates, and single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) trends. We also dive into the “haves” and “have nots” across property types and examine how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the industry. Tune in now.Episode Notes: Introductions & Pulse Check (1:04)Post-FOMC Meeting Insights (3:35)Impact of a Rate Cut on CRE Market (7:38)Market Challenges & Pressure on Banks (12:45)Does Economic Data Matter for the Markets? (18:30)Is There Market Resilience? (23:40)Lodging Market: Financials vs. Property Upkeep (25:20)Impact of AI (29:24)Single-Asset, Single-Borrower (SASB) Update (40:04)Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected]. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

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• 335. Geopolitical Turbulence, AI Gold Rush, Distressed Office Opportunities, & Trading Alerts

  In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine how escalating geopolitical tensions may have overshadowed the Fed meeting, despite soft inflation data and mixed economic signals. We discuss Meta's staggering $100 million AI signing bonuses and what they signal about the AI revolution, and share highlights from Trepp's own AI hackathon. We preview office distress opportunity data, revealing there are nearly 300 properties worth more than $9 billion with sub-60% occupancy. We analyze bank CRE lending trends that show mixed signals in office vs. multifamily charge-offs. We close with lodging, office, mixed-use, and multifamily trading alerts. Tune in now.Episode Notes: Economic Update (1:05)Research Preview: $9B+ Distressed Office Opportunities (16:24)T-ALLR Report (21:18)Trading Alerts: Lodging Special Servicing Transfer & Office Loan Extension (24:10)Office Green Shoot: Transaction in Manhattan (30:31)Trading Alerts: Mixed-Use & Multifamily Special Servicing Transfers (31:48)Trepp Training Solutions (39:50)Programming Notes (42:34)Shoutouts (44:04) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG   Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].  Follow Trepp:  X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp 

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• 334. CREFC Optimism, Market Uncertainty, Special Servicing Uptick & Notable Transactions

  In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we recap CREFC’s June Conference, where optimism stood out amid market uncertainty. We analyze the latest economic data, including how the lower-than-expected CPI print might not be enough to prompt a rate cut as the job market remains healthy. We review Trepp’s May 2025 CMBS Special Servicing report, noting that the overall rate rose for the second straight month. The episode spotlights notable CRE transactions, including industrial deals from Blackstone and Ares Management, a major office lease signed by Walmart, and Apollo’s recent apartment acquisition. Plus, we explore Live Nation’s $1B plan to build new music venues across the U.S. Tune in now.Episode Notes: Economic Update (0:28)CREFC June Conference Recap (4:02)Trepp Special Servicing Report May 2025 (14:52) Industrial Transactions: Blackstone & Ares (19:39)Walmart 338K SF Office Lease in California (25:00)Apartment Transactions: Fort Lauderdale & Seattle (25:50)Live Nation's Venue Expansion Plans (35:26)Programming Notes (38:02)Shoutouts (39:05) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected]. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

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