Stubborn Things

The midterms are in view, and Sean and Jay try not to treat the tea leaves like gospel. Although Jay got into the limelight through election blogging, he’s realized that it’s difficult to differentiate what he wants to happen and what will happen. This bias doesn’t just influence Jay but is ingrained in the practice of forecasting itself, making election predictions all the more difficult. Nevertheless, what politicians are doing now and how voters are feeling might give us a glimpse into November. Sean notes that unless you’re a wartime president or a great economy president, the ruling president will likely lose house seats, so we might see a wave of Blue representatives. The Senate? Only God knows for certain.

Our founders did not want all of American governance to diverge from England. In fact, the founders were inspired by Parliament's structure, which attempted to represent the desires of the people. Congress was perhaps well constructed but is not currently functioning well. As Wallach argues in his book, Congress is functioning well when the people trust that their interests are properly represented in the legislature. That trust and reciprocal relationship may not currently exist in spades. However, Wallach offers some potential solutions to not only empower better representation but also inspire Congress to pass bi-partisan legislation for the betterment of the whole country.

Wallach, Philip A. Why Congress. New York: Oxford University Press, 2023. https://www.amazon.com/Audible-Why-Congress/dp/B0C446NBP5

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From 1933 to 1953 we only had two presidents… So we naturally ranked them. When FDR came into office the country was looking bleak, there was a steady economic decline into the Great Depression that could have inspired a revolution. Instead, FDR maintains our democracy but grows the federal government like no other. Sean points how FDR was more moderate than perceived and Jay calls him a Wilsonian progressive but both see FDR as a defender of the republic. Following FDR, Truman "slips into place" as a wartime president but leaves with shockingly low approval ratings. However, Truman’s commitment to civil rights and strong opposition to communism may be his saving grace.
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Some kooks with sex scandals, securities fraud, and outlandish tweets are winning primaries and even congressional seats. Why are these ideological crackpots winning? And where are the party gatekeepers? On today’s podcast, Jay and Sean discuss how a centuries-long precedent of (primarily) electing the righteous is slowly falling prey to populism. In this podcast, our hosts discuss how the McGovern-Fraser Commission of 1968 may have increased democratic participation in primaries, but at the same time allowed political outsiders and some unique kooks to rise to power. Furthermore, the 1974 amendments to the Federal Election Campaign Act—although they limited the political power of rich donors—took power away from the parties to fund well-vetted candidates themselves.
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On this week’s episode, Jay and Sean hypothesize about what Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Madison, Hamilton, and even Brutus would have thought about our republic in its 250th year. From Washington’s hatred of partisanship to Hamilton’s love of our energetic national government, our hosts analyze what our founders would have admired and what they would have despised in 2026 America. We’d probably hear lots of “I told you so!” from all sides... Hope you enjoy our podcast and our nation’s semiquincentennial!
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Comments? Suggestions? Email us at StubbornThings@aei.org.