State of Gold

Guest
Jon Fleischman, Founder, So, Does It Matter?
Steve Maviglio, Democratic Strategist, Forza Communications
Guest Bios
Jon Fleischman is one of the best-known Republican voices in California politics, with more than 35 years in campaigns. A former executive director of the California Republican Party, he founded FlashReport and now publishes the Substack and podcast So Does It Matter? His analysis has appeared on Fox News, CNN, ABC, NBC and CBS. This fall he wrote a guide to all 14 statewide propositions on the November ballot and previewed them on State of Gold before the vote.
Steve Maviglio is one of the most experienced Democratic communicators in Sacramento. He was press secretary and communications director to Governor Gray Davis from 1999 to 2003, then deputy chief of staff to Assembly Speakers Fabian Núñez and Karen Bass. Today he is principal of Forza Communications, a Sacramento public affairs and campaign firm, and has managed or consulted on more than 25 statewide and local campaigns. Campaigns & Elections named him one of the most influential campaign strategists in California.
Show Summary
“The tsunami washed right over the Rockies and right into California,” says Jon Fleischman. In this episode of State of Gold, host Jon Slavet sits down with Republican Jon Fleischman and Democratic strategist Steve Maviglio after the November 3 midterms, to sort through what the Democratic wave means for Washington and Sacramento.
Maviglio says the vote was less about Trump’s policies than their impact on daily life, pointing to gas prices, groceries and a Latino shift toward Democrats of 20 to 25 points. Fleischman calls it “a referendum on the job that the president is doing” and warns Democrats against reading it as a win for their ideas. He says Republicans lost California’s independent voters, and that with Gavin Newsom gone, no one in Sacramento will ask “show me the math.” Maviglio expects Governor-elect Xavier Becerra to focus on health care and the budget, and calls him “Jerry Brown meets Gray Davis.”
The conversation moves to the 14 propositions. With the count still going, Fleischman says voters backed the Prop 1 housing bond and the Prop 3 tax on high earners but turned down Prop 40, the billionaire tax, after one side spent hundreds of millions and the other almost nothing. Maviglio agrees money talks, and says a national billionaire tax will be front and center for Democrats in 2028. On Nithya Raman’s win over Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayor’s race, Maviglio calls it a referendum on Bass, while Fleischman warns Raman not to assume a mandate. Looking ahead, Maviglio sees a solid blue California; Fleischman predicts more wealth-creating people “fleeing this state.”

Chapters
00:00 – Cold Open: A Referendum on the President
00:25 – Welcome: Jon Fleischman and Steve Maviglio on the Midterms
01:03 – Maviglio: Affordability and a 20 to 25 Point Latino Shift
02:13 – Fleischman: A Referendum on the Job the President Is Doing
03:56 – Democrats After the Wave: Center-Left Wins and the Blue Dogs
05:25 – Republicans After the Wave: Vance, Bacon and Cruz React
07:21 – California Results: The Blue Wave Crosses the Rockies
09:40 – Governor-Elect Xavier Becerra: Jerry Brown Meets Gray Davis
11:59 – Ballot Props: Housing Bond, High Earner Tax and Prop 40
15:35 – Billionaire Tax in 2028: Will Democrats Take It National?
16:33 – LA Mayor: Nithya Raman’s Win and the Verdict on Karen Bass
19:14 – Predictions: Where California Goes in the Next Four Years

Connect with Jon Fleischman
X: https://x.com/FlashReport
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jon-fleischman-0205024/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/JonFleischman/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/jonfleischman

Connect with Steve Maviglio
X: https://x.com/stevenmaviglio
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/stevenmaviglio/
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Connect with State of Gold
X: https://x.com/realjonslavet
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en
Website: www.stateofgold.com

Guest
Mark Baldassare, Statewide Survey Director, Public Policy Institute of California
Guest Bio
Mark Baldassare is one of California’s leading experts on public opinion and how its voters behave. He has directed the PPIC Statewide Survey since 1998 and led the Public Policy Institute of California as president and CEO from 2007 to 2022. Before PPIC he taught urban and regional planning at UC Irvine, and unlike most pollsters he trained in sociology, earning his PhD at UC Berkeley. He has written ten books, including A California State of Mind: The Conflicted Voter in a Changing World.
Show Summary
“Both parties are underwater in terms of their favorability,” says Mark Baldassare. In this episode of State of Gold, host Jon Slavet sits down with the longtime California pollster to ask why voters who say the state is headed in the wrong direction keep voting the same way.
Baldassare says it comes down to how people feel about both parties. Asking a Democrat to vote for a Republican, or the other way around, is a hard choice, because voters “have questions about what the alternatives might do.” His polls keep finding Californians who say a third party is needed, which he reads as deep disappointment in both major parties. The biggest change since he wrote about the conflicted voter, he says, is that distrust of government has become “a fact of life,” along with a hyper-partisanship that keeps people in their political lane. He points to Arnold Schwarzenegger, an independent thinker who did his homework, and to Jerry Brown’s canoe theory of politics, paddling to the left and to the right, as what wins voters over.
The conversation moves to the ballot. Voters want to keep the initiative process, he says, but think special interests have too much influence, and they would rather have debates, town halls and a Citizens Initiative Commission than commercials. Only one in three initiatives passes, because “the default for voters is to say no.” He closes on Prop 45, the environmental review measure that pits more housing against the reasons to vote no, as the vote he expects to be the biggest surprise.

Chapters
00:00 – Cold Open: “I Don’t Actually Like Either of Them That Much”
00:19 – Welcome: Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare on Conflicted Voters
01:20 – Both Parties Underwater: Why Unhappy Voters Won’t Switch
02:41 – Fear of the Unknown: Why Californians Want a Third Party
03:21 – The Conflicted Voter, 24 Years On: Distrust Becomes a Fact of Life
04:33 – Grumpy Voters: Who Californians Blame Depends on Their Party
05:58 – Breaking Party Lines: Schwarzenegger and Jerry Brown’s Canoe Theory
09:31 – Shifting Opinion: Same-Sex Marriage, Prop 187 and a GOP That Didn’t Move
10:50 – Ballot Overload: 14 Propositions and How Voters Would Fix the System
12:47 – Prop 39 Voter ID: Who Should Write the Ballot Language?
15:22 – Prop 40 Billionaire Tax: When in Doubt, Voters Vote No
17:28 – Election Night Surprise: Why Prop 45 Is the One to Watch
Connect with Mark Baldassare
X: https://x.com/PPICnotes
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/public-policy-institute-of-california/
Carnegie California profile — https://carnegieendowment.org/people/mark-baldassare
Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe to our podcast, leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and join the conversation on Instagram and LinkedIn with the hashtag #stateofgoldpodcast

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X: https://x.com/realjonslavet
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Website: www.stateofgold.com

Guest
Tom Bevan, Co-Founder and President, RealClearPolitics
Guest Bio
Tom Bevan is the co-founder of RealClearPolitics, home of the polling averages cited across American politics. He started the site in 2000 with John McIntyre and is now its president. A Princeton graduate, Bevan co-hosts RCP’s daily radio show on SiriusXM with Washington bureau chief Carl Cannon, and the two co-wrote a pair of e-books on the 2012 election. He travels the country giving speeches on the election landscape.
Show Summary
“Republicans are playing defense in a lot of these states,” says Tom Bevan. In this episode of State of Gold, host Jon Slavet sits down with the RealClearPolitics co-founder to size up the 2026 midterms, from the fight for the Senate to the gas prices weighing on Republican voters.
Bevan calls the Senate a real toss-up. He points to President Trump’s job approval at 38.8% in the RCP average and a generic ballot where Democrats lead by about eight and a half points, and says to follow where the time and money are going. Trump’s trips to Texas, Ohio and Montana are about turning out the base, because “midterm elections are base elections,” though Susan Collins and Mike Rogers would rather keep their distance. Collins never led a poll in 2020, he notes, and still won by eight points.
He says gas prices have the tightest link to how voters feel about the economy because it is “a very tangible thing that everybody across this country feels in a very real way when they go to the pump.” The conversation moves to Texas, where he calls the Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico “a crazy race.” On polling, Bevan admits there have been big misses. Still, he says of the averages, “there’s literally nothing better.” He closes on election confidence, with a two-day national voting holiday he and Carl Cannon have proposed, and says ballot harvesting “erodes” trust and “should be done away with.”

Chapters
00:00 – Cold Open: Other Countries Count Ballots Faster Than California
00:16 – Welcome: RealClearPolitics Co-Founder Tom Bevan on the Midterms
00:29 – Senate Toss-Up: Trump at 38.8% and Democrats Up 8.5 Points
02:11 – Follow the Money: Why Republicans Are Spending in Red States
04:12 – Trump on the Trail: Do Red-State Candidates Want Him There?
06:04 – Senate Betting: Susan Collins, Kansas and a Weird Election Cycle
09:10 – Gas Prices: The Pump Problem Dragging Down Republicans
12:00 – Latino Voters: Trump’s 2024 Gains Are Slipping Back
13:59 – Texas Senate: Talarico, Paxton and What Went Wrong for Cornyn
17:33 – Polling Defense: Are the Polls Rigged? Tom Bevan Answers
20:39 – Election Trust: Voting Holiday, California and Ballot Harvesting

Connect with Tom Bevan
X: https://x.com/TomBevanRCP
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-bevan-8152353a
RealClearPolitics, YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@realclearpolitics4074
Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe to our podcast, leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and join the conversation on Instagram and LinkedIn with the hashtag #stateofgoldpodcast

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X: https://x.com/realjonslavet
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Website: www.stateofgold.com

Guest
Greg Wallis, CA State Assemblyman (47th)
Guest Bio
Greg Wallis represents California’s 47th Assembly District, a stretch of Riverside and San Bernardino counties that includes Palm Springs, the Coachella Valley, Yucca Valley and Joshua Tree. A Republican in a district where Democrats hold the registration edge, he first won the seat by 85 votes out of about 170,000 cast. He serves on the Budget Committee, belongs to the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, and was ranked by CalMatters as the Assembly’s top “maverick” voter for breaking with his party. Before taking office he was district director for former Assemblymember Chad Mayes.
Show Summary
Host Jon Slavet sits down with Assemblyman Greg Wallis, who rallied 61 lawmakers from both parties against a proposed Yosemite land swap, and explains why federal park cuts hit tourism towns like Joshua Tree and Twentynine Palms. He walks through his reelection fight in a district he first won by 85 votes, and contrasts his record with his opponent Leila Namvar’s, pointing to $24 billion spent on homelessness while the homeless population kept growing. He defends breaking with his party on wildfire prevention, describes how overgrown forests turn into tinderboxes, and lays out why gas prices keep rising as the state loses refineries. Wallis closes with a warning about cap and invest, which he says passed before lawmakers could get a fiscal analysis.

Chapters
00:00 – Yosemite Is Not for Sale: 61 Lawmakers Push Back
01:48 – Federal Park Cuts and the Tourism Economy
03:31 – Won by 85 Votes: Holding a Democrat-Leaning District
05:27 – Leila Namvar and California’s Spending Problem
07:16 – Prop 40 and Protecting Prop 13
07:55 – Breaking With His Party on Wildfire Prevention
09:26 – How Unmanaged Forests Become Tinderboxes
11:16 – What’s Really Driving Gas Prices
13:46 – Climate Goals and Rising Utility Rates
15:23 – Proving Clean Energy Can Be Affordable
16:36 – Cap and Invest Without a Cost Analysis
17:02 – Good Policy Needs Good Process
Connect with Greg Wallis
X: https://x.com/AsmWallis
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AsmGregWallis/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/asmgregwallis/
Official Assembly Website: https://ad47.asmrc.org/
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Website: www.stateofgold.com

Guest:
Shannon Grove, California State Senator (12th)
Guest Bio: 
Shannon Grove is a Republican California State Senator representing the 12th District, which includes much of Kern County and the southern Central Valley. An Army veteran, she co-founded Continental Labor and Staffing Resources and still serves as its CEO. She served in the State Assembly from 2010 to 2016 before winning her Senate seat, and she later led the Senate Republican Caucus. Grove is known as Kern County’s loudest voice on oil and energy, the author of SB 237 to restart Kern drilling, and a persistent advocate for child safety and victims’ rights. With her Senate term ending in 2026, she is running for the State Board of Equalization, District 1.
Show Summary
“I don’t vote for tax increases,” says Senator Shannon Grove. Host Jon Slavet sits down with the California State Senator as she runs for the Board of Equalization in a race against Democrat Nelson Esparza. Grove explains what the BOE does, from overseeing county assessors to defending Prop 13’s two-thirds vote, and calls an $11.25 billion veterans bond a Trojan horse after $24 billion spent on homelessness. The two dig into the billionaire tax and why it could reach any taxpayer. Then the talk turns to energy: SB 237’s 2,000 Kern County permits a year, Valero’s Benicia closure, and why importing refined fuel from overseas makes no sense. Grove recounts a colleague pitching restorative justice for people who traffick children, the Safe Passage for Youth Act now on the Governor’s desk, and SB 1373’s fight over mental health diversion. She closes with Jay Leno crashing a press conference.

Chapters
00:00 – Death and Taxes: Why the Board of Equalization Matters
01:31 – An 8,000-Vote Race: Grove vs. Esparza on Taxes
02:07 – Holding the Line on Prop 13 and the Two-Thirds Vote
03:16 – $24 Billion on Homelessness and an $11.25 Billion “Veterans” Trojan Horse
04:02 – The Billionaire Tax: A Door to Taxing Everyone
05:21 – SB 237: Why 2,000 Kern Drilling Permits Can’t Flip a Switch
07:21 – Refineries Closing: Importing Fuel from India and Japan
09:45 – Kern County, Energy Capital: 58% of California’s Renewables
11:34 – Restorative Justice for Child Traffickers? Inside the Legislature
14:15 – Safe Passage for Youth: Paris Hilton and Survivors on the Governor’s Desk
16:02 – SB 1373: The DSM-5 Loophole in Mental Health Diversion
17:47 – Leno’s Law: Jay Leno Crashes the Press Conference
Connect with Shannon Grove
X: https://x.com/ShannonGroveCA
Facebook (Senate office): https://www.facebook.com/ShannonGroveCA
Facebook (BOE campaign): https://www.facebook.com/ShannonGroveForCA
Instagram (Senate office): https://www.instagram.com/ShannonGroveCA/
Instagram (BOE campaign): https://www.instagram.com/shannongrove4ca
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/shannon-grove-b17b4116/
Campaign Website (Grove for BOE 2026): https://shannongroveca.com/
Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe to our podcast, leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and join the conversation on Instagram and LinkedIn with the hashtag #stateofgoldpodcast

Connect with State of Gold
X: https://x.com/realjonslavet
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en
Website: www.stateofgold.com