On The Market

Did home prices just hit their floor? New demand data is showing something no one expected—buyers coming back. If the supply-demand balance hits equilibrium, we could see the national housing market begin to settle at prices like these. One thing that could change all that? Mortgage rates—and with a potential peace deal on the table between the U.S. and Iran, we could finally get some relief.

A lot of housing market news hit over the past week, and we’re getting into all of it. If you’ve been waiting for the market to thaw, this could be a sign it’s starting. Demand for home purchases is rising, even though news outlets are telling you otherwise. What does that mean for buyers? We could be at the bottom for home prices—and we have proof.

Will a peace deal in the Middle East bring mortgages back down to the 6% (or sub-6%) range? It’s looking possible. We’ll get into exactly what could happen if a peace deal is struck soon or if the war drags on longer. The consequences could be massive for the housing market, inflation, and the economy. But one thing you can be sure of? A certain type of real estate is seeing massive pressure to sell at a discount—every investor should be looking at these properties.

In This Episode We Cover

What happens to mortgage rates if a peace deal with Iran is finally struck?

The one type of residential rental property seeing unparalleled discounts (and incentives)

Signs that we have hit the floor for national home prices (crash chances are dwindling)

A very positive sign for the real estate industry as buyers come back to the market

The one thing that could cause rate hikes and spiking interest rates in the near future

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

On the Market 432 -  J Scott: We Have 1-2 Months Before the Economy

On the Market 429 - The Ultimate "Stress Test" for the Housing Market

Begins to Break

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers

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The next global recession is a lot closer than many Americans think. We’ve been (fairly) insulated from supply chain shocks stemming from the War in Iran, but within the next few months, things will begin to break. Oil reserves could run dry, energy costs could spike, and a new age of inflation could hit Americans in a way many of us are not prepared for. 

In other words: We’re a bit screwed…at least temporarily. The question is, how long do we have? 

There’s no one else but J Scott that we’d invite on to answer this question. J, aside from being one of the most principled real estate investors over the last two decades, is a student of the global economy, arguably more up to date on inflation, energy prices, and the effects to come than anyone else we know. 

J recently mentioned on a podcast that “we’re screwed”...just using a bit harsher language. Today, we’re asking “why?” and going over the delayed economic shocks that could be hitting us soon, the domino effect of ships being stalled at the Strait of Hormuz, whether or not this will impact the U.S. housing market, and what J is doing to protect himself right now. 

In This Episode We Cover

Why we may be closer to a global recession than most Americans think

What happens when the U.S. depletes its emergency oil reserves?

What’s truly causing inflation more than supply-strained commodities

How the housing market (home prices) will be affected if we slip into a recession

The countdown until the oil crisis begins to hit Americans…hard

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

On the Market 431 - The “Engine” of the U.S. Economy is Starting to Crack (It Will Affect Housing)

On the Market  413 - Real Estate Isn’t as Safe From Inflation as You Think

Connect with J

J's BiggerPockets Profile

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab J’s Books

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The “engine” of the U.S. economy is starting to crack—and real estate is already feeling the effects. Just last week, we touched on the hidden “recession” affecting many Americans. Today, we’ve got even more data to back up that analysis. Americans are at a breaking point, and the long-term trends are not looking good for spending, GDP, the economy, and real estate.

If you feel economic strain, you’re not alone. We just hit a level of low confidence that hasn’t been seen in 70 years. So, how is the economy still growing? How is GDP still rising? Why haven’t we seen a traditional recession with high unemployment, stock market declines, and a pause in consumer spending? It’s not a question of “why not,” but “when will it happen?”

If you invest in real estate, this will affect you. Home prices, rent prices, and activity in your local market will change. Dave is sharing the markets where investors are quickly leaving, the others seeing the most money pour in, the property types that still make sense in this market, and what to prepare for so your rentals weather any economic storm. 

In This Episode We Cover

New economic data showing just how worried the average American is about the economy

How consumer confidence problems can quickly seep into the housing market

What to do now to start preparing your rentals for a slow season ahead

The reasons why the average American is struggling so much in 2026

How is GDP still growing when consumer confidence is so low?

What (and where) investors are buying in 2026 (property types, markets, etc.)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 427 - The 2026 Recession Is Here

On the Market 429 - The Ultimate “Stress Test” for the Housing Market: Do We Pass in 2026?

Redfin: Investor Home Purchases Fall to Lowest Level Since 2020

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

 

Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-431.

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Home listing prices have been falling for weeks, and it’s not just sellers who are getting fed up. Real estate agents have finally decided to call it quits, with many reaching their breaking point and leaving the industry altogether. But a glimmer of hope is on the horizon for the market, as one of the biggest housing bills in years just passed the House of Representatives. Could this get us back on the right track?

Welcome back to this week’s headlines episode. If you thought the deals couldn’t get any better…well, it’s your lucky day (or weeks). Home listing prices have now fallen consecutively for over a dozen weeks. Buyers aren’t buying what sellers are selling, and the deals are getting sweeter. If you’re a seller, we have some crucial tips your average agent won’t tell you to start a bidding war on your property, even during a slow market.

Agents have finally decided to step away from the industry altogether, but a new housing bill could spark some life back into the housing market—this is good news for buyers! Finally, we’re going over the states with the lowest property tax bills—but are any of them worth investing in?

In This Episode We Cover

Huge changes coming to the housing market? A monumental housing bill that’s making its way to the President’s desk

Are these sellers serious? Why listing prices are falling nationwide for weeks on end

The great real estate agent exodus (and why good agents are sticking around)

The states with the lowest property tax bills (and how to ensure yours won’t jump)

James’s undeniable loathing of the Seattle, Washington permitting department

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 429 - The Ultimate “Stress Test” for the Housing Market: Do We Pass in 2026?

Realtor: Weekly Housing Trends 

WSJ: Real-Estate Agents Are Quitting the Slow Housing Market

U.S. News: Inside the Sweeping Bipartisan Housing Bill Headed to Trump

Kiplinger: States With the Lowest Property Tax Bills Ranked by Affordability

Grab Henry’s Book, Real Estate Deal Maker

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Every recession, crash, and major change in the real estate market has its warning signs. And while most people think these can only be seen in hindsight, we have “stress tests” today that signal corrections, crashes, or rising prices to come. These tests not only test the housing market, but also the economy as a whole, to tell us whether we’re going to spiral down for years or stay afloat.

Today, we’re looking at one of the greatest “stress tests” of the housing market—credit.

The “canary in the coalmine” of real estate is forced selling. Once this begins, the domino effect can easily get out of control. When sellers can’t pay their bills, and are forced to sell, a race to the bottom is almost inevitable—and there’s one part of the real estate market where this exact scenario is ramping up—fast.

In today’s show, we’re detailing the assets and regions most at risk, comparing 2026’s economy to 2008/2009 to see where we stand, going over foreclosure and delinquency numbers, and touching on the newest (concerning) consumer debt numbers quickly starting to rise—will the spillover put the housing market in danger? 

In This Episode We Cover

Our latest “credit stress” report and who is (and isn’t) paying their mortgages

2008 vs. 2026 housing market stats: foreclosures, delinquencies, and more

Forced selling has already begun for one (formerly profitable) type of real estate

The corner of the housing market seeing double-digit delinquency rates in 2026

Newest consumer debt numbers and why they should concern many Americans

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 427 - The 2026 Recession is Here

BiggerPockets Forums

New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-429.

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