The Grumpy Strategists

President Eisenhower's 1961 farewell address warning of the US Military Industrial Complex echoes in Canberra today - but with industry and products replaced in the Canberra version by advisory services, post-career consultancies and invoices.
Marcus and Michael discover that biofuel brewing isn't so easy even in a fuel crisis. Feedstock like the National Anti-Corruption Commission's (the NACC) indigestible and philosophically inventive 445 page report into the huge Robodebt scandal proves toxic enough to break the process.
And the Grumpy Strategists attend another funeral of a fallen warrior for accountability and transparency when it comes to the $billions spent on Australia's faltering military - the now deceased but invaluable Major Projects Report, killed quietly by a Parliamentary committee that should know better. A new secret Parliamentary committee is apparently the antidote. But anyone who expects Defence's poor performance to improve because it talks to a few well-disposed politicians in a dark room is probably suffering from exposure to the NACC's report..
It's a lengthy episode but an important one for anyone interested in how the Canberra bureaucratic machine's most senior levels engage with our political leaders - and keep doing so after both the politicians and the senior Mandarins have left their official roles. It's also a depressing story of comfort zones and single sources of advice that often turn out to be wrong.
The latest effort from the now embarrassing National Anti Corruption Commission will be reassuring to anyone who thinks things are peachy - like, say, a former or current Canberra Mandarin. But not to anyone who cares about Australia's security, public services or future.

Marcus and Michael get serious about biofuel, with a novel feedstock straight from Defence's Russell Offices. They look at the rapidly expanding Iran War, with multiple US partners getting pulled into a messy patchwork, all desperately trying to quarantine their roles into a defensive effort. They explain the Australian policy to ensure no ADF personnel are involved in attacking Iran, even when they are (hint: closing eyes at critical moments helps).
The missile supply issues have intensified, with US production being diverted to the war and other forces' orders being delayed - probably by years. Despite the war apparently being way ahead of schedule, Iran's attacks are continuing, Israel is evacuating citizens away from Hezbollah drones, and US diplomats are leaving Saudi and Turkey. The episode ends with a capability roundup for Australia - pricey Peregrines, artisanal K-9s, maritime precinct sketches and broken submarines.

Marcus and Michael reflect on their wisdom in modifying the Grumpies bunker to hold thousands of litres of diesel and 8 pallets of tinned tomatoes, as the war escalates in the Middle East. They set out three scenarios for the outcome and only one of them - the least likely (spoiler, it involves rose petals and cheering crowds)- is good. Then it's on to examine the desperate contortions of US allies - notably the UK's Keir Starmer and our own PM Albanese, and ministers Marles and Wong - to avoid thinking or talking about our major ally assassinating foreign governments as a new normal. It turns out assassinating people is okay if they are 'bad guys'. And, luckily, we were kept in the dark until afterwards. Phew.

Marcus goes diving to try to find rock bottom in Australian political discourse, but has to come up for air. He at least found the curious case of a Canberra cafe that police found had put up satirical posters & hosts live music (What have we come to as a people???). No arrests or jail time yet....Then it's back to the undersea world of AUKUS progress and the far more concrete, rapid momentum behind Chinese nuclear powered - and armed - submarine production. They managed to build a new shed and other facilities in 3 years (not 16) and seem to have completed 11 nuclear submarines since AUKUS was announced. Ouch. On the Xi Jinping downside though, the riskiest job in the Chinese military turns out to be one he promoted you into: Xi's purges are expanding in his later years in power, and even seasoned Pekinologists are confused.

The Grumpy Strategists boggle at the sheer chutzpah of PM Albanese and State Premier Malinauskas announcing as a triumph spending $30 billion & taking until 2040 to build submarine construction sheds (not actual submarines). At least the premier had the honesty to say the biggest beneficiaries weren't Australians worried about security, they were the South Australians who are to receive this firehose of taxpayer cash. He's right to be boggled. Meanwhile, Australia's leaders across the spectrum from Labor, through the Coalition into One Nation land are outdoing each other in expressing their fear about the potential return of 34 women and children from camps in Syria, while clamping down on the evil of immigration. It's bad form to notice that our health system - and many other industries - depend on migrants....