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Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Top Traders Unplugged
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  • SI356: The Anatomy of a CTA Recovery ft. Katy Kaminski
    Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn’t. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets break, and slower when they don’t, and what that asymmetry reveals about the current cycle. They unpack copper’s historic 1-day move, the role of China in CTA return dispersion, and what slower, replication-based strategies might be capturing that others aren’t. This episode isn’t about defending trend - it’s about understanding what environments it needs, and what signals suggest we’re getting closer.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:48 - What has been on our radar recently?07:43 - Crazy moves in US copper09:45 - Industry performance update14:31 - How should we approach the current drawdowns in managed futures?23:01 - Why trend following is struggling at the moment31:22 - Rebalancing in trend following is key33:57 - A better alternative trend following?37:32 - The different types of impact to markets and how it reflects on the CTA industry44:41 - The key variables for understanding regimes53:21 - Replication is beating the benchmarks that they are trying to replicate58:16 - Mechanical vs. regression based replication59:33 - Defining tracking errorCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights...
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  • ALO30: The Quiet Rewire of Portfolio Construction ft. Cian Walsh
    Cian Walsh, Head of Hedge Funds and Private Debt at Formue, joins Alan Dunne to explore what it means to allocate capital when the macro regime, client expectations, and the structure of markets are all in flux. He explains why the 60/40 model obscures more than it reveals, how he is adapting institutional frameworks for thousands of private clients, and what changes when you view hedge funds not as a bucket, but as a function. From the discipline of sizing trend in a sideways regime to the slow shift from vintage private credit to evergreen, this is a conversation about building portfolios that can hold together when the ground moves.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Cian on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Cian Walsh05:30 - How does institutional asset allocation stand out?06:39 - Asset allocation in a shifting regime09:33 - A move towards mass customization10:26 - The 60/40 portfolio is dying - what is next?13:28 - The challenges of implementing a total portfolio approach17:16 - Dealing with underperforming strategies20:09 - More growth or more all-weather?23:30 - Why Walsh believes in systematic trading28:51 - Do Walsh hold any long volatility strategies?30:04 - Walsh's process for selecting managers36:55...
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  • SI355: Drawdowns Don’t Lie, But They May Mislead ft. Alan Dunne
    Markets have recovered fast - maybe too fast. Alan and Niels unpack what sits beneath the surface: a bond market brushing off record deficits, volatility draining from asset prices, and trend followers caught between sharp reversals and shrinking conviction. They explore how sentiment, structure, and speed are shaping today’s trading environment, and what most investors still underestimate about liquidity, macro policy, and risk. With fresh research in hand, they ask whether drawdowns are misunderstood, if diversification has become an illusion, and why clarity often emerges only after the pain. We do recognize that we had some technical issues with this recording and appreciate you for sticking with us.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?04:38 - Industry performance update07:38 - Is trend thriving?09:57 - Dunne's global macro overview16:33 - A catastrophic year for the dollar18:12 - Is this time different for trend following drawdowns?27:26 - The value of long term track records34:30 - Is trend following flawed?37:48 - What are investors actually interested in?44:32 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
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  • OI17: The End of the Bull Market: What’s Next for Equities? ft. Asim Ghaffar
    In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Asim Ghaffar, the founder and CIO of AG Capital, a Boston-based macro hedge fund. Asim explains why he believes insourcing rather than outsourcing the organizational processes of running a hedge fund business is critical and how it can add long-term value to the business. He also describes why sales and branding are key components to a successful investment management business, and how AG Capital connects with clients and prospective investors. In the second part of the conversation, Asam and Moritz speak about AG Capital’s style of trading, how they position size, why they take concentrated positions, how their methods differ from those of systematic trend following funds, and what their current long-term and short-term investment themes are, touching on gold, Bitcoin, copper, natural gas, and some other markets.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:13 - Introduction to Asim Ghaffar and AG Capital06:48 - What defines a great hedge fund?12:13 - How do you find clients as a hedge fund?18:32 - Creating world class in-house operations25:32 - Ghaffar's framework for building portfolios35:05 - How Ghaffar differs from a classical trend follower39:16 - Why Ghaffar enforces a fixed number of positions41:40 - What is so cool about stocks?46:16 - Why Ghaffar sometimes decreases an exposure51:36 - How Ghaffar approaches gold54:05 - Why AG Capital stays away from Bitcoin01:01:54 - Is China actually more democratic than the US?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can
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  • SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver
    With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around bank capital and crypto assets may carry more weight than headlines suggest, and what falling shipping volumes might be whispering about global demand. Rob breaks down the math of drawdowns, the tension between Kelly sizing and real-world volatility, and how systematic managers can fool themselves into thinking they’re diversified. It’s a conversation about structure, discipline, and why most edges today come from avoiding mistakes rather than discovering secrets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:07 - What has caught out attention recently?01:23 - Rob and Niels have done the unthinkable02:59 - Fed is rolling back important capital rules05:22 - What the shipping industry reveals about the economy07:33 - Industry performance update16:00 - Q1, William: Is it possible to apply the concept of decomposing returns in commodity trading?27:24 - Q2, Raphael: About estimating the full sharpe and Kelly of trend following37:03 - Q3, Dom: Has Rob come across any useful frameworks, research, or resources for designing systems that intentionally combine systematic structure with discretionary judgment?41:52 - Are all managers the same, although we all claim to be different?52:26 - Why are bond...
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About Top Traders Unplugged

Discover the fascinating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his remarkable co-hosts. Each week, we bring you compelling conversations with legendary investors, leading economists, masterful traders, and forward-thinking thought leaders. From Trend Following and Global Macro to Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, and Volatility, we uncover the strategies, stories, and lessons behind their success. Gain actionable insights from industry veterans as we celebrate their achievements and learn from their challenges. Stay ahead in the ever-evolving landscape of investing - tune in weekly and elevate your financial knowledge. For the latest episodes and expert insights, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com
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