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Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Top Traders Unplugged
Latest episode

916 episodes

  • Top Traders Unplugged

    SI393: The Illusion of Control in Modern Markets ft. Yoav Git

    03/28/2026 | 1h 5 mins.
    Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the limits of traditional explanations. They discuss why assets like gold and bonds no longer react as expected, how flows and positioning can dominate price action, and why dispersion across managers increases during periods of stress. The conversation also examines the role of machine learning, the impact of volatility on execution, and the challenges of managing risk in fast moving markets. At its core, this is about navigating uncertainty when structure and narrative begin to diverge.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to [email protected]
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Introduction to the series
    01:19 - What is on the radar: markets and recent developments
    01:19 - The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning
    04:12 - Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes
    06:51 - Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly
    09:07 - Inflation narrative vs risk off reality
    14:13 - Bond equity correlation breaking down
    17:29 - Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty
    24:58 - Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints
    27:39 - Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic
    37:23 - Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations
    41:30 - Excess volatility and what really drives markets
    49:36 - Trend vs value vs noise traders explained
    56:34 - Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    IL47: The AI Revolution That Will Redefine What It Means to Be Human ft. Craig Mundie

    03/25/2026 | 1h
    In today’s episode we talk to Craig Mundie, formerly the Chief Technical Officer at Microsoft and a leading advocate for responsible development of artificial intelligence. He joins Kevin Coldiron to discuss his book, Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit co-authored with Eric Schmidt and Henry Kissinger. Mundie believes the timeline for AI’s impact on the economy is extremely compressed, with dramatic breakthroughs in energy and work happening in the next few years. We also discuss the long-term implications of AI-generated knowledge and solutions that will likely be beyond our understanding. What questions should we ask and what preparations should we make - both individually and collectively as citizens - to prepare this future?
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to [email protected]
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
    Follow Craig on LinkedIn and read his book.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:06 - AI as a collaborator and the end of traditional human evolution
    01:41 - Introduction to the Ideas Lab series and Craig Mundie
    03:48 - How the book Genesis came together
    09:52 - AI vs human learning and the rise of machine polymaths
    17:40 - When machines discover things humans cannot understand
    20:36 - The future of the scientific method in an AI-driven world
    25:48 - From tools to a new species: redefining our relationship with AI
    27:24 - Why AI adoption may outpace institutions and society
    33:26 - Energy, infrastructure, and global competition in AI
    40:55 - Wealth, labor, and the economic impact of abundant intelligence
    50:51 - Alignment, control, and the limits of human oversight
    58:25 - The ultimate question: do humans evolve or merge with AI
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    SI392: The Hidden Cracks in Systematic Strategies No One Talks About ft. Nick Baltas

    03/21/2026 | 1h 4 mins.
    Markets have shifted quickly in 2026, forcing systematic investors to reassess what is signal and what is noise. In this episode, Niels and Nick explore recent drawdowns, volatility in commodities, and how geopolitical shocks ripple through quantitative strategies. They unpack the role of QIS, the evolving structure of energy markets, and why some trends are holding while others fade. The conversation also challenges common assumptions about diversification, model design, and the growing influence of options markets. Rather than reacting to headlines, this episode focuses on how systematic investors interpret changing conditions and adapt without abandoning discipline.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to [email protected]
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Nick on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:01 - Introduction to systematic investing and current market backdrop
    01:03 - 2026 sentiment shifts from optimism to uncertainty
    03:04 - Commodity curve trades and recent QIS drawdowns
    08:34 - Why gas and oil behave very differently in markets
    11:17 - Media narratives vs actual CTA performance
    14:03 - Rising stagflation concerns and interest rate volatility
    18:08 - Trend following performance and positioning update
    27:06 - Do options markets impact trend following models
    38:28 - Core vs broad market universes in trend strategies
    48:46 - Can AI reshape systematic research workflows
    55:23 - Quant equity resurgence and lessons from past drawdowns
    01:02:19 - Macro uncertainty and what drives trends going forward
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    ALO34: Building an Asset Owner Mindset in Modern Pension Investing ft. Dan Mikulskis

    03/18/2026 | 1h 8 mins.
    In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Dan Mikulskis, CIO of People’s Partnership, about the evolution of large pension funds and what it means to think like an asset owner. Managing over £40 billion for millions of members, Dan explains how scale changes the way portfolios are constructed, managers are selected, and partnerships are built. The conversation explores the balance between passive and active strategies, diversification beyond equities, and the growing role of private markets. Dan also shares insights on governance, investment philosophy, and why humility is essential when making asset allocation decisions in complex global markets.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to [email protected]
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Alan on Twitter.
    Follow Dan on LinkedIn.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    01:33 - Introduction to the global macro series
    02:18 - Introducing Dan Mikulskis and his background
    03:38 - From actuarial science to investment consulting
    05:45 - The history and growth of People’s Partnership
    08:18 - Auto-enrolment and the rise of large UK pension schemes
    11:12 - What it means to operate as an asset owner
    13:24 - Building the investment team and ownership model
    18:34 - Scale advantages in manager relationships and partnerships
    23:24 - How large asset owners select external managers
    28:58 - Balancing core partnerships and specialist managers
    34:25 - Macro insights and quarterly investment forums
    37:34 - Portfolio construction and diversified growth strategies
    43:19 - Concentration risk and global equity allocations
    50:44 - Factor investing and style diversification
    53:30 - The role of hedge funds and alternative strategies
    56:08 - Total portfolio approach in pension investing
    58:56 - Measuring performance and evaluating investment teams
    01:03:18 - Career advice for future CIOs
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    SI391: Why Trend Following Works... the Evidence ft. Richard Brennan

    03/14/2026 | 1h 6 mins.
    What if trends in financial markets are not anomalies, but the natural consequence of how markets function? In this episode, Niels and Richard explore the structural foundations of trend following. Drawing on research spanning 68 futures markets across four decades, Richard explains why markets exhibit persistent trends, fat-tailed returns, and volatility clustering. The discussion moves from oil market shocks to deeper questions about feedback loops, participant behavior, and regime shifts in financial markets. The conclusion is striking: trend following does not rely on fragile patterns. It aligns with fundamental structural properties embedded in how markets actually evolve.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to [email protected]
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Rich on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
    02:08 - Oil market shock and the structural setup behind the spike
    06:10 - Why calm markets can hide explosive potential
    11:47 - How oil shocks ripple through inflation and the global economy
    15:29 - Why trend followers focus on process, not predictions
    22:15 - A changing regime that may favor trend following
    24:43 - The research behind The Fractals of Finance
    25:25 - Market memory and the meaning of the Hurst exponent
    31:22 - Why trends are structural rather than random patterns
    36:25 - Fat tails and why extreme market moves are far more common than expected
    41:12 - Divergent vs convergent market participants
    45:29 - The hidden risks in traditional volatility targeting
    49:33 - Phase transitions and regime shifts in markets
    55:33 - Why trend following aligns with market structure
    59:02 - Oil shocks, inflation risks, and the next potential market regime
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer

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About Top Traders Unplugged

Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com
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