Top Traders Unplugged

Markets rarely offer clarity when it matters most. In this episode, together with Katy Kaminski and Harry Moore, we reflect on a first quarter defined by sharp reversals, energy shocks, and rising dispersion across strategies. They explain how trend following adapted as leadership flipped across asset classes, and why results varied more than many expected. The conversation moves beyond performance to examine portfolio construction, from market selection and speed to the growing relevance of portable alpha. Along the way, they revisit periods of drawdown, investor behavior, and the role of liquidity in crisis environments, offering a grounded perspective on how systematic strategies respond when conditions change quickly.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Harry on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and episode framing
01:38 - Market backdrop and Q1 volatility
07:29 - Trend following performance through Q1
09:36 - Diversification vs equities and bonds
11:21 - Dispersion across managers explained
14:32 - Trend vs non trend strategies
18:40 - A month that tested every component of trend
21:17 - Optimal market mix and research insights
30:00 - Macro factors and what trend captures
35:57 - Portable alpha and cash efficiency
42:23 - Risks in portable alpha construction
49:04 - Drawdowns and investor behavior
53:37 - Why trend recovers after shocks
01:00:51 - Measuring alpha in macro strategies
01:06:51 - Geopolitics and future opportunities
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
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Disclaimer

What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical conflict and energy dominance to rising inequality and generational pressure, they describe a system under strain. The discussion connects investor behavior, policymaking, and social dynamics through a single lens: confidence. As those at the top grow more assertive and those at the bottom feel increasingly powerless, tensions build in ways that history suggests rarely resolve smoothly. This is an important and timely conversation about imbalance, reaction, and what may come next.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Peter on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:13 - Introduction and framing the confidence discussion
02:53 - The K shaped world and rising vulnerability
04:43 - Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom
06:48 - Confidence and policymaker decision making
09:27 - From hubris to desperation in global systems
12:23 - Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives
17:05 - Leadership confidence and timing of conflict
19:09 - Affordability crisis and consumer pressure
22:43 - War priorities vs economic priorities
25:53 - Control, drafts, and growing tension
29:11 - Authoritarian drift and system constraints
33:51 - Speed of crises in a connected world
39:22 - Overconfidence and blindness to risk
48:15 - Powerlessness as the trigger for change
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the limits of traditional explanations. They discuss why assets like gold and bonds no longer react as expected, how flows and positioning can dominate price action, and why dispersion across managers increases during periods of stress. The conversation also examines the role of machine learning, the impact of volatility on execution, and the challenges of managing risk in fast moving markets. At its core, this is about navigating uncertainty when structure and narrative begin to diverge.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the series
01:19 - What is on the radar: markets and recent developments
01:19 - The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning
04:12 - Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes
06:51 - Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly
09:07 - Inflation narrative vs risk off reality
14:13 - Bond equity correlation breaking down
17:29 - Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty
24:58 - Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints
27:39 - Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic
37:23 - Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations
41:30 - Excess volatility and what really drives markets
49:36 - Trend vs value vs noise traders explained
56:34 - Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk to Craig Mundie, formerly the Chief Technical Officer at Microsoft and a leading advocate for responsible development of artificial intelligence. He joins Kevin Coldiron to discuss his book, Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit co-authored with Eric Schmidt and Henry Kissinger. Mundie believes the timeline for AI’s impact on the economy is extremely compressed, with dramatic breakthroughs in energy and work happening in the next few years. We also discuss the long-term implications of AI-generated knowledge and solutions that will likely be beyond our understanding. What questions should we ask and what preparations should we make - both individually and collectively as citizens - to prepare this future?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Craig on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:06 - AI as a collaborator and the end of traditional human evolution
01:41 - Introduction to the Ideas Lab series and Craig Mundie
03:48 - How the book Genesis came together
09:52 - AI vs human learning and the rise of machine polymaths
17:40 - When machines discover things humans cannot understand
20:36 - The future of the scientific method in an AI-driven world
25:48 - From tools to a new species: redefining our relationship with AI
27:24 - Why AI adoption may outpace institutions and society
33:26 - Energy, infrastructure, and global competition in AI
40:55 - Wealth, labor, and the economic impact of abundant intelligence
50:51 - Alignment, control, and the limits of human oversight
58:25 - The ultimate question: do humans evolve or merge with AI
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Markets have shifted quickly in 2026, forcing systematic investors to reassess what is signal and what is noise. In this episode, Niels and Nick explore recent drawdowns, volatility in commodities, and how geopolitical shocks ripple through quantitative strategies. They unpack the role of QIS, the evolving structure of energy markets, and why some trends are holding while others fade. The conversation also challenges common assumptions about diversification, model design, and the growing influence of options markets. Rather than reacting to headlines, this episode focuses on how systematic investors interpret changing conditions and adapt without abandoning discipline.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:01 - Introduction to systematic investing and current market backdrop
01:03 - 2026 sentiment shifts from optimism to uncertainty
03:04 - Commodity curve trades and recent QIS drawdowns
08:34 - Why gas and oil behave very differently in markets
11:17 - Media narratives vs actual CTA performance
14:03 - Rising stagflation concerns and interest rate volatility
18:08 - Trend following performance and positioning update
27:06 - Do options markets impact trend following models
38:28 - Core vs broad market universes in trend strategies
48:46 - Can AI reshape systematic research workflows
55:23 - Quant equity resurgence and lessons from past drawdowns
01:02:19 - Macro uncertainty and what drives trends going forward
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer