Top Traders Unplugged

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals
04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework
10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction
12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets
16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse
22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals
24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions
31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making
34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update
37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL
41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability
45:13 - MAN Group paper...

Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge funds, and applied AI, Ben explains why stories, not data, increasingly drive outcomes in modern markets. The conversation spans unstructured data, inference, common knowledge, and the mechanics of narrative momentum. Together, they examine consumer expectations, inflation silence, geopolitical signaling, and the slow shift away from US dominance. What emerges is a framework for understanding markets as reflexive systems, where perception often matters more than reality.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to U Got Options and the trading floor setting
02:18 - Ben Hunt’s background and Epsilon Theory origins
04:11 - Markets as the ultimate multiplayer game
06:15 - Inference, unstructured data, and narrative analysis
08:18 - Why sentiment and word counts miss the real signal
11:16 - Mapping meaning and truthy stories
15:00 - LLMs as operating systems, not oracles
18:01 - Giving money back and when models stop working
21:16 - Applying narrative tools beyond markets
24:10 - Consumer weakness versus bullish expectations
30:43 - Inflation, recession, and why markets do not care
33:29 - Dormant stories and volatility discovery
34:26 -

Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification across markets and speeds matters more than ever. Drawing on new research, they examine dispersion within the CTA universe, the limits of replication, and how volatility targeting quietly determines outcomes. From precious metals to currencies, from crisis alpha to geopolitical risk, this episode offers a grounded look at why trend following thrives during disruption and why regime change remains its natural habitat.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
00:39 - Weather disruptions and market perspective
02:31 - Precious metals and extreme commodity moves
04:28 - Gold, central banks, and monetary regime shifts
07:43 - Replication versus full CTA diversification
09:47 - Liquidity differences across metals
12:03 - Metals leading trend performance in 2026
15:01 - Multi-sector trends and diversification benefits
20:13 - Media attention and the return of trend following
23:29 - Research insights on speed and dispersion
31:44 - Trend speed and timing tradeoffs
40:59 - Market concentration and narrow universes
43:19 - Volatility estimation as a hidden...

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Dario on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening remarks and context
02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations
05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny
08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects
11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure
17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair
26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative
35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate
39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk
46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic...

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discussion spans geopolitics, deglobalization, energy markets, fixed income autocorrelation, and the limits of forecasting macro outcomes. Rather than predicting inflation’s path, the episode focuses on portfolio construction that can endure multiple regimes. What emerges is a disciplined argument for robustness over precision in an increasingly unstable global system.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and series context
01:08 - Inflation back on the radar
02:38 - Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives
06:56 - Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation
08:52 - Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves
10:48 - Trend performance and early 2026 conditions
11:30 - Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends
17:26 - The all weather portfolio problem
18:18 - Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns
22:39 - Commodity trend as a defensive building block
27:01 - Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead
30:04 - What...