Odd Lots

Even before the US midterms, the AI trade was weakening. Just look at all the headlines from October in the hedge fund world — it was one of the bloodiest periods the industry has faced in recent memory. Now, after the blue wave, things continue to look uncertain. So what's going to happen with the AI buildout now? And what about the big Anthropic IPO? Today's episode is a two-parter, one that examines both the hedge fund carnage of the last few weeks and the broader macro conditions we find ourselves in after the midterm elections. We speak with two of our Bloomberg News colleagues — Nishant Kumar, chief correspondent for hedge funds, and macro strategist Michael Ball — and they help lay out why October was a historic month for hedge funds and what they are paying attention to now as jitters from the AI trade continue to work their way through the market.

Read more: Crowded Hedge Fund Trades Unwind Fast After Ugly October
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According to Joshua Goodman, trash collection in New York is one of the last services the city offers that is not yet touched by neoliberalism. What he means is that it's the last free and unlimited city service — there is no opt-in; it is not means tested. Goodman — who is the DSNY's deputy commissioner for public affairs and customer experience — tells us that the city deals with 24 million pounds of trash every day, and on today's podcast, he explains the logistical dance required to sort through all that garbage. We also get into why NYC produces less trash than you might think, the DSNY's new containerization program (and the new side-loading trucks they built in less than 18 months), and why recycling is not a scam.
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We don't need to tell you that the midterm elections were historic: The Democrats won bigger than even they imagined. But as the dust settles, an open question we are puzzling over is the market's ongoing reaction to this massive political sea change. Democratic control of Congress — and control over a number of formerly red statehouses, like Texas and Iowa — will influence everything from the composition of the FOMC to data center construction. And what we're seeing right now, with stocks like Tesla and SpaceX tumbling, is a direct response to these conditions. To get a better sense of this macro moment, we turn to Odd Lots regular, Employ America's executive director Skanda Amarnath to talk about how the midterms will influence the Fed's battle with inflation, Elon Musk's political instincts, and what a Democratic majority means for the market, tariffs, and AI.
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When we last talked to James Bosworth, it seemed like an “orange wave” was going to take over Latin America and further realign the region’s interests with those of the Trump administration. But with Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s surprise victory in Brazil’s presidential election last month, and opposition leader María Corina Machado’s return to Venezuela, it now looks like the orange wave might be cresting. Bosworth — a non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and the author of the Latin America Risk Report newsletter — comes back to the show to explain how Lula pulled off his upset win over Flavio Bolsonaro, the impact of Machado’s return to Venezuela, and why 2027 might further reshape the politics of Latin America.
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Nate Silver tells us he is calling this midterms the “rock and a hard place election” — the background conditions are great for Democrats to win both the House and the Senate, but for that to come to pass, the party has to pull off some things that haven't happened in generations, like winning Texas. To believe that will happen requires a certain leap of faith, which is anathema to pollsters. Still, the polls generally believe Democrats are favored, but many professional pollsters would end up with egg on their face if the night does not go that way. Silver — the founder of Silver Bulletin — joins us today to discuss why popular narratives around polling error are wrong, prediction markets, why he doesn't think AI will replace pollsters, and what he is paying attention to tonight as the polls close.
Read more:When Will We Know Who’s Won the Midterm Elections?Trump’s DOJ Turns to Supreme Court in California Ballot Case
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