Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist

Aaron Levie has spent two decades building Box into a cloud storage leader — and he's never been more excited for the future. What's next in the AI wave? Where is he already seeing evidence for new job creation? What do the doomers and accelerationists both get wrong? And why is Silicon Valley's biggest AI challenge self-inflicted?
We discuss these topics and more in this week's episode with Aaron. Originally a college project to access his files from anywhere, Aaron dropped out of USC in 2005 to build Box. He raised his first funding from Mark Cuban and pivoted to the enterprise. Today, Box is a multi-billion dollar company serving 120,000 global customers, and Aaron has become one of tech's leading voices on AI in the enterprise.
We begin our conversation with the state of model progress and the unprecedented speed of the AI era — companies going from zero to $500M in revenue in a year or two. We also discuss the Kimi K3 debate and China closing the gap on the U.S. in the AI race. Next, Aaron explains why diffusion, not intelligence, is the real rate limiter for AI adoption, and what the challenges will be at the enterprise level. Then we dive into the jobs debate: Aaron explains the 13 new types of jobs AI has created at Box, why law firms now need teams of engineers for their own custom AI models, and why mass job destruction means betting against markets themselves. Finally, we tackle Silicon Valley's self-inflicted AI crisis and why it may become the number one issue of the next presidential election.
(00:00) Episode intro
(01:15) AI wave / every two months is a year now
(06:30) China, Kimi K3 & open-source debate
(10:45) Diffusion is the real rate limiter
(15:50) Agent-first startups vs incumbents
(19:00) Nobody reads those contracts — AI’s new work
(23:35) Silicon Valley’s AI Problem / Larry David making AI models
(29:20) 13 new types of AI jobs at Box
(32:20) The origins of Box / dropping out of college
(37:00) Favorite angel investments right now
(40:20) Optimism for America’s future


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Aaron Cannon is applying AI to solve one of the oldest and most important challenges in business: understanding exactly what customers want and need. Traditional consumer surveys often provide low-quality data, while one-on-one interviews are cost-prohibitive and not scalable. But AI unlocks profound new possibilities. How is Aaron using AI to conduct deep, insightful interactions at scale? What happens when organizations have always-on customer understanding? And what are the new opportunities for incorporating real-time feedback into product improvements?
Aaron Cannon is the co-founder and CEO of Outset, one of the fastest-growing, agent-led customer research platforms. Try it yourself here and help us improve American Optimist; we'll incorporate the top recommendations!
Prior, Aaron was the head of product at Untapped and Triplebyte and worked in senior product roles at Tesla, Pebble, and Monitor Deloitte. He launched Outset in 2022 after seeing an opportunity with large language models to fundamentally change how organizations learn from the people they serve. For this conversation, we're also joined by 8VC Partner Jack Moshkovich, who helped lead our investment in Outset.
We begin with Aaron’s path to founding Outset and the inefficiencies he saw in traditional customer research. Next, we explore how Outset’s AI-moderated interviews work in practice — from consumer studies to enterprise deployments at Microsoft, Google, and Uber. Learn how AI-led interviews can actually elicit more honest and in-depth responses than human-led conversations. Then, we dive into the explosive growth of the company — 8X revenue over the past year — and its “forward-deployed researchers" model. Finally, Aaron shares his vision for "self-driving research": AI that doesn’t just gather feedback but helps close the loop by identifying problems and even suggesting fixes — ultimately leading to improved products, experiences, and organizations.
00:00 Episode intro
01:10 Aaron’s entrepreneurial journey
06:00 How does AI-moderated research work?
09:25 Why people will talk to AI more than humans
13:40 How Outset landed Microsoft, Google & Uber
14:55 Are you replacing human jobs?
20:56 New possibilities for real-time product improvements
23:30 The pros and cons of synthetic research
28:00 Insane growth / how Outset 8X’d revenue
35:00 How AI is upending a $140B industry


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

Nima Ghamsari was a top talent at Palantir before founding Blend Labs to digitize the mortgage process. Blend became one of Silicon Valley’s hottest SaaS companies until the mortgage industry came to a screeching halt in recent years. Now, the AI wave has Blend poised for a comeback. What will the future of home buying look like? Why is Nima all-in on AI agents? And how can AI supercharge established tech companies with the will and talent to rethink things from scratch?
In this episode, we’re joined by the Founder and Head of Blend, Nima Ghamsari. We begin with his parents immigrating from Iran to the U.S. in the 1980s and how Nima made his way to Stanford. He quickly made a name for himself as a talented online poker player — winning millions of dollars and famously showing up to Palantir as a new hire in an Aston Martin. Learn about the lessons Nima brought with him from Palantir into building Blend, and how he took on the ambitious task of bringing the outdated, cumbersome mortgage process online. Next, we dive into Blend’s meteoric rise and fall as the U.S. mortgage industry hit the skids in recent years. Now, Nima believes AI has the company poised for a comeback. Learn about its AI agent, “Autopilot,” and why Blend has the most deployed agents in financial services right now. On this podcast, we talk a lot about new AI-first companies; Blend is a great example of a talented SaaS company embracing AI for a powerful Act II.
00:00 Episode intro
01:45 Millions playing poker to joining Palantir
06:00 Most important lessons from Palantir
07:30 Founding Blend / understanding the mortgage industry
11:25 How to win over banks and risk-averse customers
15:50 Blend’s meteoric rise and fall
19:00 Going all-in on AI agents / Blend’s Act II
22:55 Is Blend undervalued today?
26:50 Impact of AI on internal operations / increased productivity
32:00 The future of SaaS
36:20 The optimistic case for AI

Disclosure: Joe Lonsdale is a principal of Eight Partners VC, LLC (“8VC”), a registered investment adviser whose funds currently hold shares of Blend Labs, Inc. (“Blend”). Joe also has a longstanding personal relationship with Blend and its CEO, having served as an early investor, adviser, and board member. The statements in this episode reflect Joe’s personal views as of the date of recording and may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Nothing in this episode constitutes investment, legal, tax, or financial advice, nor should any statement be understood as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or invest in any 8VC-managed vehicle. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own professional advisers before making any investment decisions. American Optimist is Joe’s personal podcast; the views expressed are his own and do not necessarily represent the views of 8VC or its affiliates.


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In 2010, the U.S. and China were at parity in electricity generation. Today, China boasts triple our capacity. We’re at the vanguard of the AI revolution but falling dangerously behind in energy production. Scott Nolan has identified a key bottleneck in nuclear energy and is at the forefront of the effort to scale nuclear power and help America achieve energy abundance.
While studying at Cornell University, Scott landed an internship at Boeing. He quickly jumped to SpaceX as an early employee and worked on the Falcon propulsion systems and Dragon capsule. He later became Partner at Founders Fund, where he focuses on energy, infrastructure, biotech, and other key sectors. In 2024, he founded General Matter to rebuild America’s nuclear enrichment capacity.
We begin the episode with Scott’s entrepreneurial journey, the contrast between Boeing and SpaceX, and how to build a culture that prioritizes speed and performance in a highly regulated sector. Next, Scott explains the origins of General Matter and breaks down the science behind creating nuclear fuel. In the 1980s, the U.S. produced 80% of global enriched uranium; today that number is zero. Learn how post-Cold War disarmament destroyed our capacity to the point where we are now reliant on Russia, among others, for enrichment. Scott explains how China surged ahead in electricity generation, and what it will take to jumpstart America’s nuclear renaissance. Finally, we cover exciting new possibilities, including nuclear power in space and on the moon, and what a future of cheap, abundant energy could look like.
00:00 Episode intro
01:20 Boeing vs SpaceX / lessons on speed & performance
05:20 What made SpaceX unique?
09:05 General Matter / how to make nuclear fuel
16:45 Disarmament and relying on Russia
19:50 The AI energy crisis / falling behind China
24:30 Founders Fund and energy investing
27:15 How to scale nuclear energy
32:00 How to fund the nuclear buildout
36:15 Nuclear in space & new possibilities


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Is America’s national wealth built on slavery? Are disparities between races today attributable to past injustices? Will we ever overcome race politics? These difficult questions are at the heart of Coleman Hughes’ new course at the University of Austin titled “The Legacy of Slavery.”
Coleman is one of the clearest voices confronting race-essentialism in America today. He’s the author of The End of Race Politics: Arguments for a Colorblind America, host of the Conversations with Coleman podcast, and a visiting professor at the University of Austin.
In this episode, Coleman takes us behind the scenes of his new UATX course, where he examines the two opposing philosophies that emerged from the civil rights era: Dr. King’s colorblind vision and Derrick Bell’s Critical Race Theory. He breaks these down into two camps -- minimalist and maximalist -- and explains how he equips students to weigh the merits of each side. He contrasts the UATX approach, where Thomas Sowell versus Ta-Nehisi Coates takes center stage, to his time at Columbia University and its obsession with racial grievances. Then we dive into a few legacy debates: Is America’s wealth due to slavery? Is the collapse of the two-parent black family a result of past injustice? Finally, Coleman lays out three steps toward an optimistic vision for race in America: get race out of the law (end affirmative action), stop programming children to see race, and foster a growing economy with opportunity for all.
00:00 Episode intro
01:40 Teaching the Legacy of Slavery
06:20 Coleman’s journey from Columbia to UATX
08:30 Dr. King vs Derrick Bell
11:20 Racial disparities by IQ and salary
13:00 Thomas Sowell & the Real History of Slavery
19:00 America’s Founding hypocrisy
24:00 Will the Left cancel Dr. King?
26:20 Understanding the 1619 Project
30:25 Breakdown of the black family
37:20 Is America wealthy because of slavery?
43:50 Are you worried about woke AI?
45:40 Three solutions for racial progress


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com