Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In Episode 182 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into a market environment defined by soaring oil prices, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tension and ask the big question: Who's the real skunk at the party?

Inspired by Jamie Dimon's 49-page annual report, the conversation centers on inflation as the underappreciated threat to an otherwise resilient economy. Ryan and Sonu break down what WTI crude at $115 a barrel is signaling, why real yields matter more than nominal ones, and how equity markets have held up remarkably well given the backdrop of war, energy shocks, and a hawkish Fed pivot.

The episode covers the March jobs report, a surprisingly solid 178,000 jobs added, and what slowing immigration means for the labor market's break-even rate. Sonu explains the shift to a low hire, low fire economy, why youth unemployment has improved sharply since September, and why manufacturing is showing early signs of life.

Ryan and Sonu also discuss portfolio construction in a volatile inflation world: why the traditional 60/40 may not cut it, why small cap value is quietly outperforming, and how managed futures and real assets are earning their place in diversified models. They close with a preview of next week's special guest, oil analyst Rory Johnston of Commodity Context, and a cautious but glass-half-full outlook for the second half of the year.

Key Takeaways:
- Inflation, not just the war, may be the biggest long-term market risk.
- Real yields falling last week was a key positive signal for equities.
- The labor market break-even rate has dropped to near zero due to stalled immigration.
- Youth unemployment (ages 20 to 24) has fallen sharply since September, a constructive sign.
- Diversification across geographies, sectors, and asset classes is more important than ever.
- Midterm years are historically volatile, but one year off the lows, markets have always been higher.

Jump to:
0:00 - Opening And Fast Moving Headlines 
2:05 - Oil Spikes And Market Signal Check 
8:25 - Real Yields, Valuations, And Midterm History 
14:25 - Jamie Dimon On Inflation Risk 
18:10 - Building Portfolios For Volatile Inflation 
23:00 - Fed Cuts Debate And Growth Indicators 
30:00 - Spring Break Stories And Travel Chaos 
34:40 - Jobs Report: What Matters Most 
42:23 - Layoffs Data And Youth Unemployment Reality Check 
49:50 - War Timeline, Commodities Crunch, And CPI Ahead 
53:10 - Next Week's Guest: Rory Johnston

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Hashtags:
#FactsVsFeelings #Inflation #OilMarkets #StockMarket #MacroEconomics #FederalReserve #JobsReport #MarketVolatility #GeopoliticalRisk #Diversification #EnergyMarkets #InterestRates #WealthManagement #CarsonGroup #InvestingOutlook

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In Episode 181 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most consequential geopolitical developments in recent memory, the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, and what it means for oil markets, global supply chains, and your portfolio.
They break down what it would mean if the U.S. exits the conflict without reopening the strait, why Iran could emerge as a de facto regional hegemon, and how a potential toll system on tanker traffic could reshape global energy economics. They also explore why crude oil remains stubbornly elevated despite ceasefire signals, the growing "air pocket" in global oil supply as floating storage drains, and the long term instability risks including nuclear proliferation that could keep an ongoing risk premium baked into energy prices.
On the markets side, Ryan and Sonu make the case that this pullback is unlike any bear market on record, with the S&P 500 taking an unusually long time to reach even a 5% decline from its peak. They walk through why the year to date drawdown is almost entirely explained by multiple contraction and not deteriorating earnings, and how forward EPS and profit margins continue to hit new highs even as headlines stay grim. The duo also examine the dramatic drawdowns in mega cap tech names, why the market may be pricing in a recession that isn't materializing, and why diversification across sectors, styles, and geographies is paying off in ways many investors haven't seen in years.
The episode wraps with a Disney and Universal trip report, Sonu's allergy update, Ryan's eye health journey, and a big congratulations to his daughter Susanna on her college commitment to Penn State.

Key Takeaways:
Trump withdrawing without reopening the strait could establish Iran as the dominant regional power
A tanker toll system could generate $100B+ annually for Iran, reshaping Middle East geopolitics
The S&P 500 decline is 100% multiple contraction; earnings and margins remain strong tailwinds
Forward 12 month EPS is up 7% in Q1 alone, with half of that gain coming during the crisis
No bear market since WWII has started with such a slow initial 5% decline, a historically unusual pattern
Mega cap tech stocks are down 22 to 35% from highs, pricing in a recession that hasn't arrived
Diversification across value, international, commodities, and small caps is quietly working

Jump to:
0:00 – Welcome and the Great Kit Kat Heist 
2:10 – Trump's Potential Pullback and Hormuz Control 
5:50 – Iran's Toll Scenario and Global Leverage 
9:10 – Why Oil Stays Elevated Despite Peace Signals 
11:55 – Energy as a Strategic Hedge Trade 
16:10 – Hedging Activity and Encouraging Market Breadth 
18:45 – Tanker Traffic Slowdown and Supply Time Lags 
22:05 – Floating Storage Drawdown Explained 
35:23 – Mega Cap Tech Drawdowns and Recession Pricing 
41:10 – Slow Burn Selloff and What the VIX Is Telling Us 
48:05 – Diversification Lessons From Lost Decades 
56:50 – Final Thoughts and Listener Requests

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

The Social Hour is back for its 3rd episode — and this one did not disappoint. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the industry: Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, and Sam Ro, founder of TKer.
Fair warning: Sonu joins live from Epcot, Ryan gets an unexpected visit from housekeeping mid-stream, and the conversation somehow wraps up with a heated debate about Predator Badlands. But in between, there's a lot of substance.
They dig into what's been driving market volatility, why closing near the lows matters more than the headlines, and what the technicals are actually telling us right now. Frank shares his screen and walks through charts on trading boxes, the VIX, and the tech-to-energy rotation that's hitting historic extremes. Sam breaks down why diversification still makes sense even when everything seems to move together, and what consumer spending data is, and isn't, telling us. Sonu connects the dots between oil supply disruptions, the Fed's difficult position, and what it would actually take to spark a near-term rally.

Key Takeaways:
Closes near the lows matter: 11 of the last 12 sessions closing weak signals bears are in control
Tech vs. energy rotation: The ratio just hit its lowest weekly RSI reading in recorded history
Private credit check-in: Why it doesn't look systemic, yet,  and what to watch
The Fed's dilemma: Inflation keeps running hot; how long can they stay patient?
Bitcoin watch: Still hasn't made a new low and that might mean something
Diversification reminder: Mag 7 drawdowns are a painful but timely lesson
Frank Cappelleri and Sam Ro are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Jump to:
0:00 - Welcome & Guest Intros 
6:21 - Why Markets Turned Ugly 
11:06 - Oil Supply Fears & What It Takes To Rally 
22:20 - Private Credit Systemic Risk Debate 
30:50 - Chart Read: Weak Closes, VIX & the 200-Day Line 
43:36 - Energy Surge vs. AI Capital Spending 
52:24 - Gold, The Fed Box & Bitcoin As A Risk Signal

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick 

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Sam:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sammyro/
• X: https://x.com/SamRo

Connect with Frank:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-cappelleri-cfa-cmt-a319483/
• X: https://x.com/FrankCappelleri

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 180 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss a volatile market environment shaped by inflation concerns, rising yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment. They break down why a rough week in markets may not be as unusual as it feels, how inflation is changing the way investors should think about diversification, and why bonds may not provide the same protection they once did.
The conversation covers risk-on signals inside the market, falling consumer staples, rising yields competing with dividend stocks, and why inflation regimes change which sectors win and lose. They also discuss Federal Reserve policy challenges, why inflation may remain stubborn, and how corporate earnings and margins continue to support the broader bull market despite volatility.
They also explore market history, including how often 5% pullbacks turn into corrections or bear markets, why midterm years tend to be more volatile, and why long-term investors should expect pullbacks as the cost of investing.
From diversification strategies and managed futures to investor sentiment extremes and earnings growth trends, this episode focuses on separating short-term fear from long-term market reality.

Key Takeaways:
Pullbacks are normal: 5–10% dips rarely become bear markets 
Inflation shifts winners: Sectors and diversification strategies matter more than ever 
Bonds may not hedge: Rising yields challenge traditional allocations 
Sentiment extremes can signal opportunities: Record bearishness can be a contrarian buy 
Earnings remain a tailwind: Margins and profits continue supporting the bull market

Jump to:
0:00 – Welcome!
1:06 – Disney Update & Livestream Announcement
2:02 – Monday Rally Then a Rough Week
4:18 – Iran Talks: Rumors vs Reality
8:50 – Risk-On Signals Inside the Market
12:19 – The Fed’s Inflation Problem Returns
19:51 – Favorite Finance Movies
21:49 – Chuck Norris Tribute & Jokes
25:04 – How 5% Pullbacks Usually End
30:35 – When Bonds and Gold Don’t Hedge
37:03 – Travel Chaos, TSA, Clear & Thanks
40:54 – Midterm Year Volatility & Closing

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

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The most dangerous shortages are the ones you don’t see coming. What happens when global oil flow is disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz becomes a bottleneck for the world economy?
In Episode 179 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down what really happens when energy markets get stressed. From the difference between Brent crude and WTI crude to why strategic reserves can’t fix everything overnight, the conversation moves beyond gas prices and into the full inflation chain. They explore how diesel, shipping costs, helium supply, and fertilizer prices all connect—and how those pressures can quietly show up later in food prices and global growth.
From bearish sentiment and ETF outflows to why rallies often start when positioning gets crowded, they look at what investors may be missing. The discussion touches on tech and software as “cash flow now” plays, the resilience of Bitcoin, and how crypto and stablecoins could play a role when global trade gets constrained. 
Key Takeaways:
 • Hidden shortages matter: Supply shocks ripple far beyond what shows up at the pump
 • Inflation chain reaction: Energy impacts shipping, agriculture, and food prices over time
 • Market positioning: Extreme sentiment can set the stage for sharp reversals
 • Alternative assets: Tech and crypto may behave differently during inflation stress
 • Policy impact: Energy disruptions complicate the outlook for rate cuts and inflation expectations

Jump to:
0:00 Welcome and St. Patrick’s Day
1:15 The 11:30 PM Doorbell Mystery
5:50 Oil Prices And The Sweet Spot
8:05 Strait Of Hormuz Supply Shock
12:40 SPR Release And The Shortfall
16:40 Fertilizer Prices And Food Inflation
18:55 Market Bounce After A Rough Stretch
26:00 Sentiment Extremes And Capitulation Signals
33:50 Tech Leadership And Software Resilience
40:30 Bitcoin Strength And A Crypto Theory
46:00 Private Credit Fears And Financials
52:55 The Fed Trapped By Inflation
1:04:15 Closing And Live Stream Details
1:07:25 Standard Investing Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]