Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

• Back to December (Ep. 164)

  In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the sharp late-November market swings, why December historically favors gains, and how shifting Fed expectations have driven sentiment. They break down sector rotation, the surprising divergence between crypto and junk tech, the return of market breadth, and the growing possibility of reflationary growth into 2026. The conversation also covers rising unemployment data, an increasingly divided Fed, and how the accelerating AI investment race may continue fueling key parts of the market.Key TakeawaysMarket Breadth Expansion: The advance-decline line hitting new highs shows the rally is widening beyond just mega-cap tech.Sector Rotation Strength: Technology lagged in November while healthcare, materials, staples, and financials helped offset the pullback—validating diversified positioning.Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Whipsawed: Odds of a December cut plunged below 30% before surging back above 80% due to rising unemployment, dovish Fed commentary, and Beige Book labor softness.Reflationary Growth View for 2026: Strong global commodities, resilient demand, and expected Fed easing support the case for reflation rather than recession.Crypto Decouples from Junk Tech: Bitcoin fell sharply while non-profitable tech surged, breaking a correlation that typically signals risk-on/off behavior.AI Spending Cycle Accelerates: Competition among AI leaders is driving massive capital spending—benefiting chipmakers, data centers, and related sectors.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #Reflation #InvestmentStrategy #Macroeconomics #FinancialMarkets #YearEndRally

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• Talking Macro and Charts with Jurrien Timmer (Ep. 163)

  In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, to break down the current cyclical and secular bull markets, how AI compares to past transformative periods, what rising rates have meant for valuations, and why international equities are becoming more attractive. They also touch on the role of gold and Bitcoin, how to think about barbell strategies, and what history teaches about market narratives. Key TakeawaysMarket Setup: Today’s environment features a cyclical bull market on top of a long-running secular bull market, similar to past periods like 1994 and the late 1990s.Interest Rates & Valuations: The 2022 market drop came largely from PE compression as rates jumped from near zero to 5%, while earnings actually grew.Historical Parallels: Timmer highlights similarities between today and both the late 1960s (loose fiscal policy, sticky inflation) and late 1990s (tech-driven excitement).Barbell Approach: A mix of mega-cap leaders and undervalued international equities may help manage concentration risk, especially as Europe and Japan boost payouts and trade at lower valuations.Gold & Bitcoin: Timmer views both as scarce, diversifying assets that hedge against periods when bonds may struggle, especially in potential fiscal-dominance environments.Small Caps vs. Large Caps: Small caps show mixed performance due to both traditional domestic exposure and speculative, unprofitable tech tied to AI.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Jurrien Timmer:• LinkedIn: Jurrien Timmer• X: @TimmerFidelityQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]: Jurrien Timmer is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.Hashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketInsights #InvestingPodcast #MacroOutlook #GlobalMarkets #AssetAllocation #CarsonGroup

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• Volatility, May I Meet You? (Ep. 162)

  In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks from Fed officials have rattled markets. Ryan and Sonu also break down the sharp risk-off moves in crypto, the resilience of sectors like healthcare and commodities, and more.Key TakeawaysFed Tone Shift: Fed officials struck a more cautious tone after their October meeting, sharply lowering expectations for a December rate cut and contributing to market weakness.Labor Data Uncertainty: With government shutdown-related data gaps, the Fed is flying partially blind, making upcoming payroll numbers pivotal in determining whether cuts resume.Crypto as Risk-Off Signal: Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen steep declines since last month, acting as a clear risk-off indicator and spilling into tech-adjacent equities.Sector Divergence: Healthcare (especially biotech), utilities, and value stocks have held up better during the pullback, while small-cap growth and speculative tech have lagged sharply.Commodities Showing Strength: Despite volatility, key commodities like copper, natural gas, silver, and jet fuel are meaningfully higher year-to-date—signs that global activity is holding up better than headlines suggest.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]#FactsVsFeelings #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MacroPodcast #InvestingInsights #MarketOutlook #CarsonGroup

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• Winter Is Here (Ep. 161)

  In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss how markets are responding to the government’s impending reopening, improving earnings, and shifting political dynamics. They unpack why consumer sentiment remains low despite strong market and economic data, explore the reality behind so-called “K-shaped” growth, and explain why they still see powerful tailwinds for investors heading into 2026.Key TakeawaysGovernment Reopening & Market Optimism: Ryan and Sonu expect the government to fully reopen within a week, though they highlight that split power in Congress has often aligned with positive stock performance.Political Shifts & Gridlock Effect: Off-year elections showed strong results for Democrats, setting up a potential split Congress—an outcome that markets have rewarded in past cycles due to reduced legislative volatility.Consumer Sentiment vs. Market Reality: Confidence levels remain near historic lows even as inflation cools and the job market holds steady. The hosts argue that perception, not data, is fueling pessimism.Earnings Strength & Global Tailwinds: S&P 500 earnings growth surged from 7.9% to 13%, with companies generating more than half their revenue abroad leading the way—evidence that global demand continues to support U.S. markets.Debunking the “K-Shaped Economy” Narrative: Sonu breaks down why claims of widening inequality are overstated, emphasizing that spending patterns and income distribution remain consistent with long-term trends.Labor Market Stability: Despite attention-grabbing layoff headlines, jobless claims and hiring plans show a resilient labor market, reinforcing the broader theme of economic strength beneath the noise.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]#FactsVsFeelings #MarketOutlook #InvestingInsights #EconomicUpdate #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #CarsonGroup 

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• Don’t Sleep on Momentum (Ep. 160)

  In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the powerful role of momentum in today’s markets and what investors should expect heading into year-end. They examine how the S&P 500’s impressive rally fits into historical context, why tech leadership remains dominant, and how market breadth and global participation are evolving. The conversation also explores the impact of Federal Reserve policy shifts, cooling trade tensions, and the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy.Key TakeawaysHistoric Market Strength: The S&P 500 has gained nearly 23% over the past six months, placing this move in the top 4% of all six-month returns. History shows that strong momentum often leads to continued upside in the following year.Tech-Driven Leadership: The recent rally has been powered largely by technology. The Magnificent Seven continue to dominate, with the S&P 500 Technology Index up 44% over six months. Global Momentum: It’s not just the U.S.—developed and emerging markets are rallying too. South Korea, Taiwan, and China are leading EM gains, while countries like South Africa, Mexico, and Japan also show strong performance.Economic Resilience: Despite talk of a “K-shaped” economy, U.S. GDP growth remains near 2%. Earnings are rising across sectors, with 80% of companies beating on both revenue and profits.Trade Tensions Easing: The U.S.–China trade war appears to be cooling, with both sides de-escalating tariffs and trade restrictions. China is resuming soybean purchases and suspending certain export controls, while the U.S. has paused new restrictions—reducing a major geopolitical headwind.Fed’s Delicate Balance: The Federal Reserve cut rates again, bringing total cuts to 150 basis points since the cycle’s peak. While inflation remains a concern for some members, Powell’s comments suggested a dovish tone, emphasizing that inflation pressures are manageable and economic momentum remains intact.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected] Hashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketMomentum #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #CarsonGroup #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #GlobalMarkets  

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