Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Oil spikes. Gas jumps above $3. Inflation expectations shift in a matter of days. Suddenly the market isn’t debating disinflation or AI productivity. It’s asking whether we’re entering a new inflation shock.
In Episode 177 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, walk through what’s happening beneath the headlines. They explain how the Strait of Hormuz disruption is impacting oil flows, why gasoline prices move markets faster than geopolitics, and how rate-cut expectations shifted dramatically in just one week. The conversation moves from energy markets to ISM prices paid, AI-driven infrastructure demand, memory chip shortages, and what this means for inflation volatility in the years ahead.
Key Takeaways:
• Oil shock hits fast: Disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude and gas prices sharply higher, immediately shifting inflation expectations
• Rate cuts repriced: Markets quickly reduced expectations for multiple Fed cuts as inflation data and energy pressures mounted
• Inflation volatility regime: Elevated base inflation combined with external shocks increases the risk of short-term price spikes
• AI demand adds pressure: Infrastructure buildout and memory chip shortages are contributing to near-term pricing strength
• Economic backdrop still stable: Leading indicators suggest the economy entered this period near trend, not in recession territory
• Portfolio construction matters: We believe diversifying beyond traditional bonds remains critical in a more inflation-sensitive world.

Jump to:
0:02 — Setting The Stage: Problems Pile Up
1:08 — Gas Price Surge Hits Home
2:46 — Markets Sell Off And Tech’s Role
3:43 — Oil Jumps And Strait Of Hormuz Risk
6:15 — Energy, Diesel, And Food Cost Pressures
8:38 — Firsthand Gulf Perspective And LNG Shock
12:35 — Portfolios For 3% Inflation World
16:24 — Gold, Bonds, And Risk-Off Mechanics
20:07 — Fewer Fed Cuts And PCE vs CPI
24:55 — Small Caps, Rates, And Risk Appetite
28:40 — Fed Independence And Politics Reality
32:48 — Inflation-Volatility Regime, Not The 1970s
36:48 — Diversify Your Diversifiers Strategy
40:25 — VIX Spike And Geopolitics Playbook
45:10 — Trend vs Recession: Leading Indicators
49:22 — ISM PMI: Expansion But Price Pressure

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

The Social Hour format loosens things up, and this time Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by Cullen Roche, founder of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism and Your Perfect Portfolio.
What makes this conversation different is Cullen’s dual lens. He thinks like a macro investor, but he builds portfolios like a financial planner. That combination leads to a deeper discussion around matching assets to liabilities, duration, inflation realities, and how advisors should think through long-term construction instead of reacting to headlines.
Key Takeaways:
• Narrative vs. numbers: Headlines move quickly, but underlying data often tells a steadier story
 • Sentiment remains dynamic: Investor positioning continues to shift alongside economic signals
 • Leadership rotation continues: Sector performance reveals subtle changes beneath the surface
 • Macro themes persist: Growth, inflation, and policy remain central drivers of direction
 • Perspective matters: Long-term discipline still anchors sound decision-making
Cullen Roche is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC.
Jump to:
0:00 - Live Kickoff And Colin’s Books
2:50 - First Principles Over Financial Noise
6:10 - Origins Of Pragmatic Capitalism And QE
11:30 - From Anonymous Blogger To Public Voice
13:40 - We’re Savers, Not Stock Pickers
17:53 - Inflation Jitters And Market Divergences
23:30 - Diversification Vs Diversification
28:20 - Simplicity, Costs, And Portfolio Design
32:40 - Behavioral Bias: You Are The Risk
38:00 - Macro Claims And What Doesn’t Compute
44:00 - AI’s Disruptive Decentralization
50:10 - Labor, Layoffs, And Data You Can Trust
55:20 - Small Caps, International, And Factors

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick 

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Cullen:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cullenroche/ 
• X: https://x.com/cullenroche 

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

A Supreme Court decision wipes out a major tariff mechanism, GDP comes in softer than expected, and AI fears collide with an AI spending boom. On the surface, it feels like three separate stories. In Episode 176 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, connect the dots and ask a bigger question: what actually changed, and what simply made headlines?
They break down the Court’s ruling on IEEPA tariffs, what it means for policy going into a midterm year, and why markets barely flinched. From there, the conversation shifts to fourth-quarter GDP, where a weak headline number masked far stronger private demand beneath the surface. The episode then moves into the AI debate, examining the surge in hardware and software investment, the role of energy and power demand, and the viral “AI crash” scenario that sparked fears of a white-collar doom loop. Along the way, they explore global market leadership, sector dispersion, and why human behavior still sits at the center of economic outcomes even in a world shaped by algorithms.
Key Takeaways:
• Tariff authority reset: The Supreme Court’s ruling removed a major executive tariff tool, reinforcing checks and balances while reducing policy uncertainty
• GDP weakness needs context: A government shutdown distorted headline growth, while private demand remained solid
• AI spending is real: Hardware and software investment tied to AI contributed meaningfully to 2025 growth
• Scenario vs. reality: Extreme AI displacement models raise important questions, but macro consistency and demand dynamics matter
• Market dispersion is widening: Software weakness, industrial strength, and global outperformance highlight a split beneath the surface

Jump to:
0:00 — Tariff Shock And Supreme Court Ruling
5:30 — Market Reaction, Odds And Policy Limits
9:40 — Tariff Refunds And Who Ultimately Paid
13:50 — China, Trade Winners And Political Timelines
22:00 — GDP Miss Explained And Core Demand Strength
31:00 — AI Capex Surge: Chips, Software And Scale
35:00 — Power Demand, Energy And Inflation Pressures
38:30 — The AI Doom Loop Scenario Debate
47:40 — Market Split: Semis, Software And Global Leaders
55:00 — Portfolio Implications And The Human Edge

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Markets keep climbing, headlines keep swinging, and yet sentiment still feels stuck somewhere between cautious and confused. In Episode 175 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, zoom out to examine what is actually driving markets right now and where investors may be misreading the signals. From shifting expectations around growth and inflation to the way earnings, liquidity, and policy are interacting beneath the surface, they separate the emotional narrative from the measurable data.
The conversation moves through current market leadership, valuation concerns, recession odds, and the risks that deserve attention without overreacting to every headline. They also explore what history suggests about similar environments, how positioning can amplify volatility, and why staying disciplined often feels hardest right when it matters most.
Key Takeaways:
• Earnings remain the foundation: Corporate profits continue to anchor market strength, even as narratives shift week to week
 • Sentiment lags fundamentals: Investor psychology still reflects caution despite improving breadth and resilient data
 • Policy and liquidity matter: Rate expectations, fiscal dynamics, and capital flows are shaping the next phase of returns
 • Volatility is part of the process: Pullbacks and headline shocks fit within historical patterns of ongoing expansions
 • Discipline beats drama: Long-term investors benefit more from structure and perspective than from reacting to every news cycle

Jump to:
0:00 - New Titles And Warm-Up Banter
2:42 - Framing A Tale Of Two Markets
5:10 - Sector Splits And Market Breadth
11:55 - Global Equity Strength And Style Shifts
16:30 - AI Shockwaves Across Industries
22:40 - Tech’s Three Tracks: Software, Semis, Telecom
27:35 - Short Interest, Contrarian Signals In Tech
31:30 - International Rallies And Country Leaders
37:15 - Jobs Revisions And Labor Market Reality
44:20 - Youth Employment, AI Fears, And Data
50:05 - Spurious Correlations And Market Folklore
56:20 - CPI Details, Shelter Math, And Services Heat

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a brutal stretch for software, AI-linked stocks, and crypto, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to ask a familiar question: are markets reacting to real deterioration, or replaying last year’s fear cycle with new headlines? As Claude-triggered concerns ripple through software and hyperscalers, they unpack their theories on why prices have fallen far faster than earnings, how valuation compression has reached levels not seen in over a decade, and why sentiment has turned sharply negative even as the S&P 500 flirts with new highs.
From there, the conversation widens. Ryan and Sonu connect record-setting AI capital spending to broader profit growth, explain why global markets like Japan and emerging economies are quietly leading returns, and revisit Bitcoin’s drawdown through the lens of software, risk appetite, and historical market behavior. Along the way, they explore why recessions remain elusive amid massive fiscal and corporate investment, why breadth continues to improve beneath volatile leadership, and why moments that feel uncomfortable often end up shaping the next leg of the cycle.
Key Takeaways:
AI fear is recycling a familiar playbook: Software and tech selloffs reflect sentiment shocks more than collapsing fundamentals
Valuations reset without earnings damage: Multiple compression has driven declines even as forward profit expectations rise
Capex is reshaping the cycle: AI investment has reached historic levels with implications for growth, margins, and inflation
Global leadership is expanding: Japan and emerging markets are outperforming as breadth improves outside U.S. megacaps
Volatility feels louder than it is: Flat index returns mask sharp rotations that reward discipline over reaction
Jump to:
0:00 — Kicking Off With Sports And Stocks
1:08 — Deja Vu: Tech Turmoil Returns
3:18 — The Claude Crash And Software Selloff
7:45 — Valuations, Momentum, And Narrative Risk
12:45 — Hyperscalers’ CapEx Arms Race
18:55 — Bitcoin, Correlations, And Sentiment
25:10 — Global Rotation: Japan Surges, Dollar Softens
30:20 — Dow 50K, Compounding, And Milestones
34:30 — Earnings Strength And Multiple Math
39:20 — Upcoming Data, Outlook, And Closing

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]