Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In Episode 184 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most historic 13-day market rallies ever recorded and ask the question most investors are afraid to answer: Are the lows for 2026 already in?
Ryan and Sonu break down what actually drove the comeback—not just momentum, but a fundamental shift in the earnings picture. Forward EPS estimates are rising sharply across tech, energy, and materials, and margin expansion is now the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns. They explain why nominal GDP growth of 5% to 6% is fueling corporate profits even as consumer sentiment sits near historic lows, and why that gap between how people feel and how they actually spend tells the real story of this market.
The episode also covers portfolio construction in a structurally inflationary world, why telecom has quietly surged 40%, why hard assets and managed futures are outperforming bonds, and what this bull market's three-and-a-half-year track record says about where things go from here.
Key Takeaways:
The SP 500's largest 13-day rally in history was driven by fundamentals, not just relief
Forward EPS estimates are rising across tech, energy, and materials, three sectors making up 40% of the index
Margin expansion is the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns
Consumer spending remains strong in nominal terms even as real income growth is flat
Telecom has surged 40% and remains one of the most overlooked positions in diversified models
Bull markets that reach Year 3 have made it to Year 4 seven out of eight times historically
Ryan believes the 9.1% drawdown in early 2026 marked the lows for the year

Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and Quick Setup
0:31 — X Account Hack and Security Lessons
3:41 — Livestream Guests and Schedule
8:30 — Ryan's New CNBC Contributor Role
9:58 — New Highs and a Historic Rally
16:08 — Tim Cook's Legacy and Apple's AI Strategy
22:06 — Earnings Growth vs. Valuation Multiples
29:27 — Sector Profits: Energy, Tech, and Materials
37:20 — Consumer Spending Amid Low Confidence
44:15 — Retail Sales and Inflationary Growth
47:16 — Portfolio Positioning for Real Economy Trends
50:09 — Hype Cycles and the Allbirds AI Story
53:34 — Are the Lows In for 2026?
56:15 — Omaha Teaser, Closing, and Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

A global oil chokepoint sits at the center of today’s biggest market story — and the ripple effects are already showing up in prices, supply chains, and geopolitics.
In Episode 183 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, to break down what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters far beyond energy markets. They walk through how oil actually moves around the world, how much supply has come offline, and why restarting production takes months, not days.
The conversation reveals the mechanics behind oil pricing, from futures curves to physical barrels, and explains why spot prices have surged even as headline prices lag behind. They also explore how disruptions force tough tradeoffs across global economies, with rising costs hitting some regions far harder than others.
If you want to understand what drives oil prices, how supply shocks unfold, and what comes next, this episode connects the dots.

Jump to:
0:02 Welcome And Guest Introduction
2:05 Rory’s Path Into Oil Analysis
6:09 Strait Of Hormuz Flow Basics
10:20 Reroutes, Pipelines, And Shut-Ins
20:50 The Double Blockade Explained
27:20 Retaliation Risks And LNG Targets
29:52 Shortages, Jet Fuel, And Demand Destruction
33:20 How Oil Prices Went Negative
36:56 Brent, WTI, Dated Brent, Backwardation
50:08 Why Oil And Stocks Look Complacent
57:22 Where To Follow Rory And Closing

Connect with Ryan:
• Ryan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick
Connect with Sonu:
• Sonu on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en
Connect with Rory Johnston:
• Rory Johnston on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysjjohnston/
• X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston
Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 182 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into a market environment defined by soaring oil prices, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tension and ask the big question: Who's the real skunk at the party?

Inspired by Jamie Dimon's 49-page annual report, the conversation centers on inflation as the underappreciated threat to an otherwise resilient economy. Ryan and Sonu break down what WTI crude at $115 a barrel is signaling, why real yields matter more than nominal ones, and how equity markets have held up remarkably well given the backdrop of war, energy shocks, and a hawkish Fed pivot.

The episode covers the March jobs report, a surprisingly solid 178,000 jobs added, and what slowing immigration means for the labor market's break-even rate. Sonu explains the shift to a low hire, low fire economy, why youth unemployment has improved sharply since September, and why manufacturing is showing early signs of life.

Ryan and Sonu also discuss portfolio construction in a volatile inflation world: why the traditional 60/40 may not cut it, why small cap value is quietly outperforming, and how managed futures and real assets are earning their place in diversified models. They close with a preview of next week's special guest, oil analyst Rory Johnston of Commodity Context, and a cautious but glass-half-full outlook for the second half of the year.

Key Takeaways:
- Inflation, not just the war, may be the biggest long-term market risk.
- Real yields falling last week was a key positive signal for equities.
- The labor market break-even rate has dropped to near zero due to stalled immigration.
- Youth unemployment (ages 20 to 24) has fallen sharply since September, a constructive sign.
- Diversification across geographies, sectors, and asset classes is more important than ever.
- Midterm years are historically volatile, but one year off the lows, markets have always been higher.

Jump to:
0:00 - Opening And Fast Moving Headlines 
2:05 - Oil Spikes And Market Signal Check 
8:25 - Real Yields, Valuations, And Midterm History 
14:25 - Jamie Dimon On Inflation Risk 
18:10 - Building Portfolios For Volatile Inflation 
23:00 - Fed Cuts Debate And Growth Indicators 
30:00 - Spring Break Stories And Travel Chaos 
34:40 - Jobs Report: What Matters Most 
42:23 - Layoffs Data And Youth Unemployment Reality Check 
49:50 - War Timeline, Commodities Crunch, And CPI Ahead 
53:10 - Next Week's Guest: Rory Johnston

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Hashtags:
#FactsVsFeelings #Inflation #OilMarkets #StockMarket #MacroEconomics #FederalReserve #JobsReport #MarketVolatility #GeopoliticalRisk #Diversification #EnergyMarkets #InterestRates #WealthManagement #CarsonGroup #InvestingOutlook

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In Episode 181 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most consequential geopolitical developments in recent memory, the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, and what it means for oil markets, global supply chains, and your portfolio.
They break down what it would mean if the U.S. exits the conflict without reopening the strait, why Iran could emerge as a de facto regional hegemon, and how a potential toll system on tanker traffic could reshape global energy economics. They also explore why crude oil remains stubbornly elevated despite ceasefire signals, the growing "air pocket" in global oil supply as floating storage drains, and the long term instability risks including nuclear proliferation that could keep an ongoing risk premium baked into energy prices.
On the markets side, Ryan and Sonu make the case that this pullback is unlike any bear market on record, with the S&P 500 taking an unusually long time to reach even a 5% decline from its peak. They walk through why the year to date drawdown is almost entirely explained by multiple contraction and not deteriorating earnings, and how forward EPS and profit margins continue to hit new highs even as headlines stay grim. The duo also examine the dramatic drawdowns in mega cap tech names, why the market may be pricing in a recession that isn't materializing, and why diversification across sectors, styles, and geographies is paying off in ways many investors haven't seen in years.
The episode wraps with a Disney and Universal trip report, Sonu's allergy update, Ryan's eye health journey, and a big congratulations to his daughter Susanna on her college commitment to Penn State.

Key Takeaways:
Trump withdrawing without reopening the strait could establish Iran as the dominant regional power
A tanker toll system could generate $100B+ annually for Iran, reshaping Middle East geopolitics
The S&P 500 decline is 100% multiple contraction; earnings and margins remain strong tailwinds
Forward 12 month EPS is up 7% in Q1 alone, with half of that gain coming during the crisis
No bear market since WWII has started with such a slow initial 5% decline, a historically unusual pattern
Mega cap tech stocks are down 22 to 35% from highs, pricing in a recession that hasn't arrived
Diversification across value, international, commodities, and small caps is quietly working

Jump to:
0:00 – Welcome and the Great Kit Kat Heist 
2:10 – Trump's Potential Pullback and Hormuz Control 
5:50 – Iran's Toll Scenario and Global Leverage 
9:10 – Why Oil Stays Elevated Despite Peace Signals 
11:55 – Energy as a Strategic Hedge Trade 
16:10 – Hedging Activity and Encouraging Market Breadth 
18:45 – Tanker Traffic Slowdown and Supply Time Lags 
22:05 – Floating Storage Drawdown Explained 
35:23 – Mega Cap Tech Drawdowns and Recession Pricing 
41:10 – Slow Burn Selloff and What the VIX Is Telling Us 
48:05 – Diversification Lessons From Lost Decades 
56:50 – Final Thoughts and Listener Requests

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

The Social Hour is back for its 3rd episode — and this one did not disappoint. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the industry: Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, and Sam Ro, founder of TKer.
Fair warning: Sonu joins live from Epcot, Ryan gets an unexpected visit from housekeeping mid-stream, and the conversation somehow wraps up with a heated debate about Predator Badlands. But in between, there's a lot of substance.
They dig into what's been driving market volatility, why closing near the lows matters more than the headlines, and what the technicals are actually telling us right now. Frank shares his screen and walks through charts on trading boxes, the VIX, and the tech-to-energy rotation that's hitting historic extremes. Sam breaks down why diversification still makes sense even when everything seems to move together, and what consumer spending data is, and isn't, telling us. Sonu connects the dots between oil supply disruptions, the Fed's difficult position, and what it would actually take to spark a near-term rally.

Key Takeaways:
Closes near the lows matter: 11 of the last 12 sessions closing weak signals bears are in control
Tech vs. energy rotation: The ratio just hit its lowest weekly RSI reading in recorded history
Private credit check-in: Why it doesn't look systemic, yet,  and what to watch
The Fed's dilemma: Inflation keeps running hot; how long can they stay patient?
Bitcoin watch: Still hasn't made a new low and that might mean something
Diversification reminder: Mag 7 drawdowns are a painful but timely lesson
Frank Cappelleri and Sam Ro are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Jump to:
0:00 - Welcome & Guest Intros 
6:21 - Why Markets Turned Ugly 
11:06 - Oil Supply Fears & What It Takes To Rally 
22:20 - Private Credit Systemic Risk Debate 
30:50 - Chart Read: Weak Closes, VIX & the 200-Day Line 
43:36 - Energy Surge vs. AI Capital Spending 
52:24 - Gold, The Fed Box & Bitcoin As A Risk Signal

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick 

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Sam:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sammyro/
• X: https://x.com/SamRo

Connect with Frank:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-cappelleri-cfa-cmt-a319483/
• X: https://x.com/FrankCappelleri

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]