Pivotal States

Germany is the key power in Europe today. The future of the continent—and America's relations with it—will hinge on decisions made in Berlin. Yet the relationship is under mounting strain amid the war with Iran, President Trump's claims on Greenland, and possible withdrawals of U.S. troops from Germany. Has longstanding trust between Washington and Berlin been irreparably broken? What can Germany and America do to capitalize on shared interests in the future? Is it even worth trying? 

Christopher Chivvis speaks with Sophia Besch, Senior Fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

In Washington, policymakers frame competition with China as a zero-sum contest for power. But does slowing China’s progress actually benefit Americans—or is it a fool’s errand? What might a more stable future for U.S.-China relations look like, and what would it take to achieve it?

In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Jessica Chen Weiss, the David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS and author of the forthcoming book, What China Wants: And What it Means for the World to unpack the most significant bilateral relationship in the world today. They discuss what each side wants from the other and explore what framework the United States should adopt to manage relations going forward.

For more than sixty years, Cuba’s revolutionary government has survived economic crises and sustained pressure from the United States. But today, the island may be facing its most severe test yet. Daily life is grinding to a halt, under intense economic pressure from the Trump administration. Some U.S. officials are even predicting the imminent collapse of its longstanding communist regime. 

But what does the United States actually want from Cuba? What do past U.S. policies toward Cuba tell us about America's options for getting the change it seeks? 

In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher Chivvis speaks with Michael J. Bustamante, Associate Professor of History and the Emilio Bacardí Moreau Chair in Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. They discuss U.S. strategic interests in Cuba, the Trump administration’s approach toward the Island, and scenarios for the future.

From 'spheres of influence' to 'naked imperialism' to 'peace through strength,' analysts of foreign affairs are offering competing explanations for Trump’s foreign policy whirlwind.  Over the past year, he has rattled the world with tariffs, negotiated a ceasefire in Gaza, conducted strikes in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and even issued threats of conquering an ally’s territory. Whether one views this record as beneficial or damaging to American interests, one thing seems clear: Trump has unleashed American power on the world stage, creating extraordinary uncertainty for the future world order.
So, how is Trump’s foreign policy shaping the world? To find the signal in the noise, Christopher Chivvis speaks with Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Visiting Lecturer at Yale Law School.

President Trump campaigned on peace. Yet, for months, he expanded America’s military presence in the Caribbean to its largest since the Cold War. Just days into 2026, Trump had Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro captured and taken to a New York prison. Trump claims the United States will “run the country” until a proper transition takes place. Now the world’s left wondering what that means and what comes next. 
What are U.S. national interests in Venezuela in the first place? What does the United States stand to gain from a policy of maximizing control over Venezuela? And how does the U.S. operation in Venezuela impact the region, and even world order?   
To explore the consequences for the United States, Latin America, and the world, Christopher S. Chivvis is joined by Oliver Stuenkel, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Associate Professor of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) in São Paulo.