The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4rwGwnT

David Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe and explains he chose to focus on an energy investment theme rather than the week’s surge in bond yields. He argues investors and media overemphasize headlines about the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, and WTI prices, while the energy sector remains largely ignored due to its small S&P 500 weight (about 3.5% versus Apple at 7.4%, and midstream at 0.5%). He notes oil supply disruptions have been buffered by large inventory drawdowns, and that energy equities appear disconnected from oil’s move, with valuations running about 70% of their historical relationship to the broader market. He makes a bullish, longer-term case tied to AI-driven power needs and highlights midstream “2.0” fundamentals: rising domestic and global natural gas demand, expanding LNG export capacity, hard-to-permit pipelines with inflation-protected contracts, better governance, lower leverage, and strong distribution growth potential.

00:00 Welcome And Setup

01:07 Why Energy Is Ignored

05:03 Index Weighting Reality

08:49 Hormuz Supply Shock

11:55 Oil Versus Stocks Gap

14:08 AI Needs More Power

15:16 Valuation Case For Energy

17:14 Midstream Opportunity

18:24 Midstream PTSD And Comeback

19:51 Midstream 2.0 Tailwinds

22:20 Pipelines And Capital Discipline

25:15 Wrap Up And Takeaway

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Thursday, Sept. 24, Brian Szytel recaps a down Dow day with the S&P and Nasdaq flat as markets rebounded late on optimism about U.S.-Iran talks potentially easing the Strait of Hormuz situation; WTI still rose about 3% to roughly $95. He highlights the bigger story as higher interest rates, with the 10-year yield up another 10 bps to about 5.21% and up 120 bps year-to-date, arguing media may be overstating it and noting long rates also reflect growth expectations, strong earnings, and economic activity, while higher rates also boost interest income to savers and the economy. Economic data included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (197k) and stronger new home sales (684k). He also addresses international dividend stocks, noting foreign withholding taxes can be offset via foreign tax credits, but prefers U.S. dividend growers due to steadier dividend policies and less sector concentration than Europe/Asia.

00:00 Market Close Recap

00:38 Oil Surge And Rate Shock

01:31 Why Long Rates Rise

03:01 Higher Rates Upsides

04:10 Economic Data Check

04:54 International Dividend Stocks

05:50 US Versus Overseas Dividends

07:43 Wrap Up And Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports a broad market decline driven by a bond selloff, with yields rising across the curve in a bearish flattener; the 10-year finished near 5.11%, while the 2s/10s spread remained about 21 bps. He attributes the rate move to stronger flash PMI data in services (58.7 vs. 55.7) and manufacturing (57 vs. 53.5), alongside hotter input inflation tied to fuel and transportation. Energy markets showed angst amid Iran-related developments and discussion of a possible U.S. diesel export ban, with WTI up about 2.7% to nearly $93. He then addresses comparisons between the 1990s internet boom and today’s AI boom, arguing that even profitable, durable companies like Cisco and Microsoft suffered massive drawdowns due to valuation, cautioning that today’s highly valued AI names may have too much optimism priced in.

00:00 Market Selloff Recap

00:51 Yield Curve and Recession Talk

02:02 Flash PMI Surprise

03:02 Inflation and Energy Risks

04:09 Dotcom vs AI Debate

05:49 Valuation Lessons Cisco

06:16 AI IPO Pricing Caution

07:16 Closing Thoughts and Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the S&P 500 finished flat, the Dow fell 185 points, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.5% as long-end yields eased slightly and the 10-year held near 4.95%. He notes financial conditions have loosened a bit since the Fed’s recent hike, with stocks higher, tight credit spreads, and long yields down, while markets still price more restrictive Fed policy even as WTI slipped below $90. He observes a previously strong negative correlation between AI/semiconductors and software stocks is becoming more nuanced, creating potential opportunities. Addressing a listener question, he explains how the long-running yen carry trade was amplified by U.S. rate hikes and Japan’s zero rates, but is now unwinding as Japan raises rates, reducing arbitrage, prompting deleveraging and some risk-asset pressure, though orderly so far.

00:00 Market Snapshot

00:27 Rates and Fed Conditions

01:11 Oil Move and Inflation Signals

02:05 AI Semis vs Software Rotation

03:45 Outlook for More Hikes

04:32 Carry Trade Explained

05:52 BOJ Shift and Deleveraging

07:23 Wrap Up and Calendar

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4y9YwqV

David Bahnsen delivers a quick Monday Dividend Cafe update from Chicago after travel disruptions, covering a strong market day led by communication services and technology while energy fell on a nearly 5% drop in oil; he notes the S&P 500 is near an all-time high even as market breadth has deteriorated sharply. He discusses rising margin debt and how its use has shifted toward non-purpose lending, highlights record ETF inflows into technology as a contrarian signal, and reviews news including media access litigation, progress on the Paramount/Warner Brothers deal, Apollo buying a 16% stake in the New York Yankees, and a newly announced AI task force. Economic data included flat industrial production, stronger retail sales, weak homebuilder sentiment, and declining housing starts, while Fed commentary shifted toward expecting a possible October hike and noting Chairman Warsh’s skepticism about a knowable neutral rate and strict data dependency; the Bank of Japan also raised rates.

00:00 Welcome and Travel Update

01:17 Market Rally and Sector Moves

02:13 Market Breadth Warning

03:29 Margin Debt and Leverage

05:15 Tech ETF Inflow Surge

05:39 Headlines and Deal News

06:27 Policy and Global Trade

07:30 Economic Data Roundup

08:04 Housing Slump Signals

09:16 Fed Outlook and Warsh Takeaways

11:18 Oil and Midstream Positioning

11:55 Wrap Up and Disclosures

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com