The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4iVv0QW

David Bahnsen announces a temporary shift from the usual Dividend Cafe format: a normal episode on Monday, a future deep dive on long-term bond yields, and a later recap of the firm’s annual New York meetings with money managers. He marks the closing (September 30) of The Bahnsen Group becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of Hightower Advisors, explaining what changes and what does not—especially continued autonomy, culture, and client service while leveraging Hightower’s technology, compliance, cybersecurity, and client portal resources. Bahnsen recounts his path into finance from managing musical bands, early career at PaineWebber/UBS, adoption of dividend growth, move to Morgan Stanley, thriving through the financial crisis, key partnerships with Brian Szytel, Kimberly Davis, and Robert Graham, and the 2014 move to independence. He notes current scale (14 offices, 13 cities, $10.5B, ~110 employees) and reiterates he is not leaving the firm.

00:00 Welcome and Housekeeping

01:50 Why This Episode Matters

03:15 Early Life Before Finance

05:31 Entering Wall Street

07:02 UBS to Morgan Stanley

09:02 Building the Core Team

10:36 Going Independent

13:13 Choosing Hightower Partner

14:20 Growth and Evolution

16:58 Acquisition and Autonomy

20:04 What Changes for Clients

22:23 Personal Motivation Story

25:54 Closing and Next Week Preview

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts The Dividend Cafe from New York City on the first day of Q4, noting a benign market day (Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq flat) and a slightly steepening yield curve. He argues that higher long-term rates repricing toward nominal growth is natural, not inherently sinister, and says the first “cracks” to watch would be widening high-yield credit spreads, which remain very tight, suggesting no recession signal. He reviews economic data including initial jobless claims at 197, manufacturing PMI still expanding at 55.9, and construction spending up 0.9%, ahead of an expected 90,000 nonfarm payrolls report. Responding to an article on dividend growth, he endorses the quality of dividend growers but rejects the claim that a 3–4% yield with ~7% dividend growth is unavailable, warning that funding spending by selling shares or using option overlays on dividend portfolios can cause permanent impairment; he recommends building a dividend portfolio to meet expenses and cites David Bahnsen’s book, “Profit from the Profit."

00:00 Welcome and Market Snapshot

00:48 Rates Rising and Growth Outlook

02:06 Watching Credit Spreads

02:31 GDP Earnings and Productivity

03:56 Jobs Data and Economic Calendar

04:46 Dividend Growth Strategy Debate

06:10 Why Selling Shares Hurts

06:40 Options Overlays and Better Approach

07:20 Book Recommendation and Sign Off

07:41 Disclosures and Disclaimer

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Sept. 30, Brian Szytel reports a bifurcated market into quarter-end, with the Dow down about 200 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise, led by large-cap growth; yields steepen as the 10-year and 30-year move higher. A cooler-than-expected PCE inflation report (core and year-over-year) lowers implied odds of an October Fed hike to about 35%, though Friday’s nonfarm payrolls could shift expectations. Other data were stronger: Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2%, ADP payrolls beat estimates, and consumer spending was robust, suggesting the economy is still humming despite high rates and debt concerns. He discusses a shifting Fed “put” narrative and answers why forward PEG ratios can look cheap versus expensive backward-looking metrics: higher expected growth, stronger profitability, and greater index concentration in the “Mag Seven,” with risk that earnings expectations could fall if AI spending disappoints.

00:00 Quarter End Market Recap

00:52 PCE Inflation And Yield Curve

02:07 Fed Hike Odds And Jobs Watch

02:33 GDP Payrolls And Spending

03:28 Bond Vigilantes And The Fed Put

05:35 Valuation Question CAPE Vs PEG

06:30 Tech Boom Comparisons And AI Risk

07:36 Dividend Focused Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reviews modest market declines (Dow -131, S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.10%) with major indexes still up YTD, and focuses on the bond selloff pushing the 10-year yield to about 5.24% amid speculation about 6%. He argues higher yields reflect both higher nominal growth near 6% and a Fed intent on reducing its balance sheet, with limited ability for Treasury financing tactics to meaningfully lower yields. He notes consumer confidence missed (81 vs. 89), JOLTS openings dipped slightly (7.1M vs. 7.2M), and Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.3% monthly but lag inflation amid high mortgage rates and weak price discovery. He answers why rates rise despite higher oil: the Fed targets elevated PCE/core inflation by tightening to cool broad-based price pressures.

00:00 Market Close Recap

00:29 Why Yields Are Rising

02:17 Fed Put and Bond Vigilantes

03:16 Where Rates May Settle

03:37 Today’s Economic Data

04:33 Housing Market Reality Check

05:21 Why Hike With High Oil

07:04 Wrap Up and Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4AC4xy1

From Las Vegas ahead of an investment conference, the host recaps a volatile market day (Dow -347, S&P -0.77%, Nasdaq -0.92%) while the S&P sits near all-time highs despite very weak breadth: ~60% of S&P 500 names are down 20%+ and the market has seen repeated 52-week lows exceed highs; he clarifies a misunderstood stat showing the weighted average decline among 430 down names is 21.7%. He ties the damage to rising yields (10-year ~5.23%), notes defensives led on the down day (staples, healthcare, energy), and argues mega-cap rallies can occur within a longer consolidation after stretched valuations, with a “rubber band” in relative sector valuations. He also covers friendlier U.S.–China tone with mostly status-quo trade, election prediction-market odds, flat August durable goods, more housing price cuts and rising inventory, mixed office-market trends by city, Fed proposals to raise bank oversight thresholds, and oil near $93 with Iran/diesel-export headlines; Q3 ends this week and TBG begins annual manager meetings next week.

00:00 Welcome From Vegas

00:51 Friday Energy Plug

01:43 Market Drop Recap

02:38 Breadth Warning Signs

05:51 Bond Yields And Sectors

07:00 Mega Cap Rally Context

08:13 Valuation Rubber Band

09:30 China Talks Update

10:37 Election Odds And Senate Map

13:18 Economic And Housing Data

15:04 Fed Oversight Proposal

15:40 Oil And Energy Headlines

16:44 Week Ahead And Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com