The Dividend Cafe

Brian Szytel reports a pre-close market rebound from Newport Beach on Thursday, September 17, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P up over 1%, the Nasdaq up about 1.5%, and the 10-year yield falling to 4.95% as the curve flattens; oil prices eased and recent sector rotation briefly reversed as tech regained bids and equal-weight indexes underperformed cap-weighted. On the economic calendar, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index beat expectations and initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 versus 208,000, while housing starts and pending sales missed slightly. He addresses fears about AI by noting historical patterns of technology skepticism and euphoria, citing the 1990s productivity paradox and subsequent productivity surge. He also answers a question on $100+ oil alongside Fed hikes, saying it has not always signaled recession and that current expected rate increases are modest unless policy overdoes it.

00:00 Market Rebound Snapshot

00:26 Rates Oil And Rotation

00:57 Economic Data Check

01:47 AI Fear And History

03:06 Oil Fed And Recession

03:57 Wrap Up And Next Read

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a volatile Fed day in which the FOMC unanimously raised rates 25 basis points, moving the range from 3.50–3.75 to 3.75–4.00, a move largely priced in. He notes dot plots implying one more hike before year-end (around 4.00–4.25), with market reaction reflecting short-term yields up slightly, long-term yields down slightly, and the 10-year unchanged near 5.01. Markets sold off (Dow ~-740, S&P ~-0.6%, Nasdaq ~-0.1%) but improved off the lows, with internals not signaling a major risk-off flush. Economic data included stronger-than-expected August retail sales (1.2% vs 0.8%) and weaker NAHB homebuilder sentiment. He also answers a viewer question, distinguishing price spikes in items like oil from broad inflation driven by money supply, referencing CPI/PCE and headline vs core measures.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe

00:17 Fed Rate Decision

01:03 Yield Curve Reaction

01:28 Why Markets Lead

02:10 Economic Data Check

02:29 Market Close Snapshot

03:30 Inflation Question Explained

04:44 Wrap Up and Thanks

04:52 Disclosures and Disclaimers

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reviews a down market day driven by oil staying above $100 (Brent 108, WTI 105), ongoing Middle East tensions, and the 10-year Treasury closing near 5%, noting equities are only a few percent off highs. Using an S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of about $406/share next year, he argues a 5% pullback implies ~17.5x forward earnings and a 10% drawdown ~16.6x—normal moves that would still look reasonable given expected double-digit earnings growth and a more tech-heavy index. He contrasts today’s resilience with 2023’s 5% yield episode when markets fell and credit spreads widened, saying spreads remain orderly. Ahead of the FOMC, markets price a 25 bp hike; he doubts bigger moves. He addresses weak 20-year auction headlines and explains that despite large AI-driven corporate issuance (hyperscalers spending $300–$400B; ~$2.4T total corporate issuance), pensions and insurers still strongly demand long-dated Treasuries.

00:00 Market Backdrop Today

00:44 Earnings And Valuation Math

02:27 Why Markets Stay Resilient

04:23 Fed Day And Bond Auction

05:08 AI Debt Versus Treasuries

07:16 Data Check And Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dB7zsq

David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from the Newport Beach studio, recaps the show’s weekly content cadence, and reviews a relatively calm market day after a volatile weekend. Nasdaq and S&P finished down about 0.5% with semiconductors down 5.6%, tied to a weekend letter from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urging major AI labs to slow development and seek regulation, with support from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Google’s AI leadership. Bahnsen notes heightened volatility, a brief 10-year yield move above 5%, and sector performance led by communication services while technology lagged. He says credit spreads remain benign but will be key to watch. He covers August CPI (0.4% headline, 0.3% core), elevated PPI (5.4% y/y), tanker shipping up ~300% amid Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions, cooling housing markets, the Fed meeting with an 86% implied hike probability, and WTI crude above $100 after a Saudi pipeline shutdown.

00:00 Welcome Back Monday

01:08 Program Cadence Explained

03:24 Market Selloff Recap

04:30 Anthropic AI Warning

07:28 Volatility and Credit Signals

09:05 Policy and AI Regulation

09:45 Inflation CPI and PPI

10:55 Shipping and Housing Cooling

12:04 Fed Meeting Rate Decision

13:18 Oil Surge and Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4ioMZyT

On September 11, 2026, David Bahnsen marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with reflections as an investor, an American, and a person, focusing mainly on market lessons. He notes the S&P 500 was already down about 30% from its 2000 high before 9/11 amid falling earnings and a valuation re-rating, then reviews how markets closed for four days and fell sharply upon reopening, with about $1.5 trillion in market value lost that week. Bahnsen argues 9/11’s enduring investor lesson is not generic “markets recover,” but that markets adapt because human innovation and resilience reassert themselves, with U.S. equities up about 1,100% since. He also recalls post-9/11 national unity as diminished today, shares his personal experience as a newlywed facing career uncertainty, and recommends the 9/11 Museum while emphasizing remembrance.

00:00 9/11 Anniversary Intro

02:10 Why 9/11 Matters Investors

03:26 Markets Before the Attacks

05:26 Trading Halt and Reopen

09:28 Recovery Was Not Different

11:39 Human Nature Drives Markets

15:21 National Unity Then Now

17:41 Personal Life Lessons

20:58 Never Forget Closing

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com