The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vxzpNy

David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from Grand Rapids during the Acton Institute Symposium, noting a relatively quiet day that allows more market focus. The Dow rose 148 points while the S&P fell 0.37% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.33% amid weakness in communication services and mega-cap names. He highlights strong year-to-date energy performance, surprising small-cap outperformance, and argues much of the market’s gain is concentrated in AI/AI-adjacent and energy. Bahnsen cites speculative behavior in the SpaceX IPO, including extreme trading volume, limited float, and a sharp decline from recent highs. Bonds sold off with the 10-year at 4.51% and the 2/10 spread flattening to 28 bps from ~80 bps. He shares an anecdote about Allbirds rebranding to “Smartbird” to pivot to AI, covers UK political instability, Iran-US talks, pending US housing legislation, mortgage rates, Fed hike probabilities, Alan Greenspan’s death at 100, and oil falling to $75.19 as Hormuz uncertainty persists.

00:00 Welcome and agenda

01:24 Market close snapshot

02:19 Sector leadership and breadth

03:06 Small caps surprise strength

03:49 SpaceX IPO mania

06:23 Rates and yield curve shift

07:13 AI bubble anecdote

08:57 UK politics and US policy

09:59 Fed odds and Greenspan

11:08 Oil and energy outlook

12:06 Wrap up and reminders

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fUPJml

David Bahnsen hosts Friday’s Dividend Cafe from East Hampton on June 19, a Juneteenth market holiday, and discusses whether current conditions signal a “top” while rejecting short-term market timing. He notes elevated S&P 500 multiples based on operating earnings and warns that today’s concern is more about market mood and complacency than valuations alone, citing Bill Ackman’s SpaceX-related quote as symptomatic of circular reasoning about value. Bahnsen argues the risk paradigm is shifting as companies move from low reinvestment and buybacks toward heavy capex, more borrowing, and potential equity issuance. He highlights NVIDIA and Broadcom stocks lagging despite strong revenue growth as possible signs of over-discounted narratives, and points to extreme SpaceX valuation as a sentiment indicator. He also describes a Fed leadership shift toward a more constrained approach that may tolerate froth coming out of risk assets, concluding investors should prioritize rational, defensible portfolios tied to operating performance and dividend growth.

00:00 Summer Intro and Holiday

00:57 Is This the Top

02:33 Valuations Aren't the Trigger

04:45 The Market Vibe Problem

06:13 Ackman Quote Warning Sign

09:27 Risk Paradigm Shifts

11:59 NVIDIA and Broadcom Signals

14:32 SpaceX Valuation and Mood

16:19 Fed Regime Change

19:53 Do the Right Thing

22:19 Closing Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Thursday, June 18, David Bahnsen recapped a strong market day led by the Nasdaq (up nearly 500 points, just under 2%), with the S&P 500 up just over 1% and the Dow up 72 points. Technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services led, while energy, financials, healthcare, and consumer staples lagged. He highlighted SpaceX’s roughly $2.5 trillion market cap (down from nearly $3 trillion days earlier after a 17–18% drop) and contrasted it with Amazon and Microsoft profitability versus SpaceX’s $19 billion in sales and a $9 billion loss. Economic data showed initial jobless claims at 226,000 (four-week average 223,000). Bond yields reflected further curve flattening: the 10-year fell to 4.45% while shorter maturities rose.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:23 Market Rally Snapshot

00:44 Sector Winners and Losers

01:07 SpaceX Valuation Reality Check

02:33 Jobless Claims Update

02:54 Yield Curve Flattening

03:28 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

David Bahnsen recaps a major market day following the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, where the Fed left rates unchanged but offered a notably brief statement with little forward guidance. The dot plot implied higher rates ahead, though Warsh declined to submit his own projection, reinforcing his opposition to forward guidance as a policy tool. In his first press conference, Warsh announced five task forces covering Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, and emphasized focusing on what data says about the economy rather than predicting the Fed’s reaction. Markets sold off: the Dow swung from +280 to close -500, the S&P fell 1.25%, and the Nasdaq more than 1.25%, alongside a yield-curve flattening with short rates up far more than the 10-year. All 11 S&P sectors ended down.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:10 Fed Meeting Recap

01:14 Dot Plot and Guidance

01:55 Five Fed Task Forces

02:44 Reaction Function Critique

04:17 Market Selloff and Yields

05:29 Sector Performance Breakdown

06:02 Economic Data Check

06:26 Wrap Up and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

David Bahnsen recaps Tuesday, June 16 market action with the Dow up 329 points (+0.64%) while the S&P fell over 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% as big tech/AI names sold off. Oil fell another 4.5% with WTI around $77, and the 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.437%. Financials rallied about 1.5% (helping the Dow), with strength also in some healthcare names, while energy mostly continued lower. Bahnsen argues Monday’s rally was less about Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines and more a return to AI-tech momentum, which reversed Tuesday, framing the key market tension as AI momentum and valuations versus more fundamental sectors like REITs, healthcare, industrials, and staples. He also defines “first-year maximum drawdown” as the largest peak-to-trough decline in a stock’s first year post-IPO.

00:00 Market Recap Overview

00:38 Sector Rotation Snapshot

01:31 Bonds and Tech Divergence

02:11 Debunking the Iran Rally

03:04 AI Momentum vs Fundamentals

04:07 What Drawdown Means

05:02 Wrap Up and Contact

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com