The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4ioMZyT

On September 11, 2026, David Bahnsen marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with reflections as an investor, an American, and a person, focusing mainly on market lessons. He notes the S&P 500 was already down about 30% from its 2000 high before 9/11 amid falling earnings and a valuation re-rating, then reviews how markets closed for four days and fell sharply upon reopening, with about $1.5 trillion in market value lost that week. Bahnsen argues 9/11’s enduring investor lesson is not generic “markets recover,” but that markets adapt because human innovation and resilience reassert themselves, with U.S. equities up about 1,100% since. He also recalls post-9/11 national unity as diminished today, shares his personal experience as a newlywed facing career uncertainty, and recommends the 9/11 Museum while emphasizing remembrance.

00:00 9/11 Anniversary Intro

02:10 Why 9/11 Matters Investors

03:26 Markets Before the Attacks

05:26 Trading Halt and Reopen

09:28 Recovery Was Not Different

11:39 Human Nature Drives Markets

15:21 National Unity Then Now

17:41 Personal Life Lessons

20:58 Never Forget Closing

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports another broad market decline (Dow -316, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside a sharp oil rally (WTI ~+7% to $102; Brent $107), with oil up about 20% over the past week and a half amid Middle East tensions and threats to key Red Sea chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Markets are focused on CPI ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, with discussion of a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike and political pressure from upcoming midterms; he frames possible policy levels using core PCE (3.3%) and current fed funds (3.50–3.75%). He cautions against trading headlines and says rate moves are being sensationalized versus 2000. He also discusses tariffs as generally inferior to free markets, often retaliatory and effectively a consumption tax, but sometimes justified for national security or to counter unfair foreign policies. PPI and jobless claims were benign and in line.

00:00 Market Wrap and Oil Spike

01:08 CPI Preview and Fed Bets

02:40 Core PCE and Terminal Rate Math

04:52 Why Not to Trade the Noise

05:23 2000 Bubble Comparisons

06:57 Bull Markets and Fed Risk

07:28 Tariffs Explained Pros and Cons

10:03 PPI Claims and Closing Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports a third straight market decline (Dow -405, S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside falling bond prices and a 10-year yield up 5 bps to 4.84%, noting Treasury talk of increasing long-bond buybacks to $6B is too small versus ~$5.5T of long debt and was met by higher yields. He walks through a hypothetical of refinancing all long-term debt with T-bills, which could flatten the curve but would push short rates up, remove long-duration supply, and make U.S. financing resemble an emerging market, undermining the Fed and increasing fiscal sensitivity and inflation premiums. He notes T-bills are ~22% of issuance vs a ~15–20% target. He discusses Japan and Europe’s zero/negative-rate policies often producing unintended outcomes (carry trades, deleveraging, higher saving). No major data today; PPI tomorrow and CPI Friday.

00:00 Market Close Recap

00:33 Treasury Buyback Buzz

01:57 Yield Curve Control Limits

03:20 Why Borrowing Long Matters

04:13 Fed Mandate And Inflation Risk

05:16 Japan Zero Rate Lessons

06:33 Europe Negative Rate Backfire

07:18 Wrap Up And Data Ahead

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets after Labor Day, noting the Dow fell 628 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined, though the Dow remains up over 10% year-to-date. Oil prices rose (WTI near $93.6, Brent near $98) amid heightened US-Iran/Middle East tensions, lifting inflation expectations and interest rates and raising concern about energy as a consumption “tax.” He highlights NFIB small business optimism at 98.7 and points to Friday’s CPI as the key market-moving event. He discusses the strong nonfarm payrolls report (162,000 vs. ~58,000 expected) alongside discrepancies with private payroll measures, with unemployment around 4.1% and the Fed seen as having a ~60% chance of a September hike amid a split committee and upcoming midterms. He also addresses client concerns about the Hugging Face incident and argues AI will both strengthen and intensify cybersecurity threats, with costs ultimately passed to consumers.

00:00 Market Wrap Kickoff

00:38 Oil Spike And Inflation

01:13 Key Data And CPI Watch

01:38 Jobs Report Breakdown

02:51 Fed Rate Hike Odds

03:28 Cybersecurity And AI Risks

04:47 Closing Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4hbt99a

This special edition of The Dividend Cafe argues that the key issue investors are missing in the AI story is not AI’s usefulness but whether massive AI infrastructure spending will earn an adequate return on invested capital. The episode highlights how major tech firms are raising unprecedented debt and equity—despite strong earnings—because free cash flow is falling or turning negative under enormous AI compute and data center CapEx. It notes high customer concentration and interconnectivity across the ecosystem, including Nvidia’s revenue reliance on three customers and AI labs’ heavy dependence on a small share of customers, alongside purchase commitments far exceeding current revenues. The central risk, the host argues, is whether capital markets continue funding the buildout and on what terms before profitable utilization arrives.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe

00:58 AI Everywhere Now

04:02 The Missing Investor Issue

06:16 Capex Funding Frenzy

07:59 Earnings Up Cashflow Down

09:44 Off Balance Sheet Reality

12:14 Why AI Economics Flip SaaS

16:28 Unknowns Behind Monetization

19:11 Return on Capital Question

20:58 Capex Bubble Spillover Risk

22:50 Concentration and Connectivity

24:10 Capital Markets Are The Gate

28:32 Wrap Up and Disclosures

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com