The Dividend Cafe

Brian Szytel recaps a down market day driven by heightened Iran-U.S. tensions, higher oil prices (WTI up 5.9% near $90; Brent near $95), and rising interest rates (10-year around 4.79%), with the Dow down 419 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1% as long-duration assets weakened. Economic data was slightly below forecasts but still constructive, including 7.2 million job openings and an ISM manufacturing PMI of 54.6 (eighth month above 50). He notes a gap between Fed dot-plot projections and futures-implied rate paths and emphasizes how unreliable rate forecasts can be given policy lags. Addressing questions about foreign Treasury selling (China and Japan), he explains foreign ownership has fluctuated historically and argues the core issue is U.S. deficit spending and rising debt costs, while the dollar’s basket weight recently increased to 43%.

00:00 September Market Recap

00:24 Oil Spike and Rates Jump

01:13 Stocks Slide and Rotation

01:45 Economic Data Check

02:23 Fed Dots Versus Futures

03:07 Why Rate Forecasts Miss

04:11 Foreign Treasury Holders

06:06 Dollar Basket and Deficits

06:38 Wrap Up and Q&A

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cPVI9C

David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action (Dow -374, S&P -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.12%; 10-year yield 4.76% up 3 bps), with energy leading on oil up 3% to about $86 and communication services lagging. He briefly shares midterm Senate race dynamics based on conversations with analysts, noting multiple paths for Democrats to win or lose the majority and warning against overconfidence in political predictions. Housing data showed August national median rent up 0.1% and down 0.8% year-over-year. He reviews Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech emphasizing price stability over employment, asserting a healthy labor market, concern about inflation, and a firm 2% target; markets raised implied September hike odds from ~38% to ~60% and to ~88% for a hike by year-end. Warsh discussed productivity questions (including AI), tight credit spreads, repudiated forward guidance with a “hall of mirrors” analogy, and delivered a cordial, potentially consensus-building tone. Bahnsen also notes a reported 35% U.S. government stake in a Venezuela oil venture with no short-term price impact, and that since 1950 September midterm years were evenly split between up and down markets.

00:00 Welcome and Agenda

01:05 Market Snapshot

02:13 Midterm Election Outlook

05:32 Housing and Rent Update

05:47 Jackson Hole Fed Takeaways

07:02 Rate Hike Odds and Targets

09:00 Forward Guidance and Consensus

11:25 Oil Moves and Venezuela Deal

12:06 September Midterm Seasonality

12:39 Closing and Next Episode Tease

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UKOOfH

David Bahnsen hosts the final Friday Dividend Cafe of August as a part two discussion tied to his new book, "Profit for the Profit," outlining the philosophy and application of dividend growth investing and responding to common critiques. He argues investors should seek returns from the underlying profit-making enterprise rather than sentiment-driven momentum, and that dividend growth helps focus on individual company profits and reduces emotional extremes. He addresses five objections: buybacks as superior capital return (unreliable, often suspended, and frequently offset by share issuance); dividends as tax-inefficient (many accounts aren’t taxable, and dividends can improve behavior versus large embedded gains); dividends making companies “poorer” (stewardship and reinvestment choice matter); Berkshire not paying dividends (it receives dividends as a holding company); and dividends being only for retirees (starting earlier captures yield-on-cost compounding).

00:00 Welcome and Book Launch

03:08 Why Dividend Growth Matters

06:59 Common Critiques Overview

08:35 Buybacks Versus Dividends

13:17 Dividends and Taxes

15:32 Does Paying Dividends Reduce Value

19:31 The Berkshire Dividend Myth

20:57 Dividend Growth for Young Investors

24:19 Closing Thoughts and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps Thursday, August 27 markets, highlighting a major AI chip company’s better-than-expected earnings and sharply higher 2028 guidance that lifted its stock 10% and pushed all three major indices higher, led by the Nasdaq, while bonds were flat with the 10-year at 4.67% and WTI oil up about 2% near $83. Economic updates included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (203k vs. 208k) and a wider July goods trade deficit of $118 billion, which he frames within the dollar-based reserve system. He also discusses US-Canada tariff tensions, arguing trade wars are zero-sum and ultimately hurt consumers and the economy. Addressing low S&P 500 dividend yield concerns, he says the decline is largely price-driven and maintains confidence in dividend growth investing focused on efficient capital use, including dividends and buybacks.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:24 AI Earnings Lift Markets

01:08 Rates Oil and Data

02:00 Trade Deficit Explained

03:02 Tariffs and Trade Wars

03:44 Dividend Yield Concerns

04:06 Why Dividends Still Win

05:40 Wrap Up and Disclosures

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports markets were essentially flat, while bonds moved as the 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.66; oil was slightly lower amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz deal talk. Economic data was mostly positive, but headline PCE was 0.3 vs 0.2 expected (3.7% YoY) while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2 (3.3% YoY), lifting Fed futures to a 40% chance of a September hike, which he views as largely a token 25 bps timing debate into Q4. He previews Jackson Hole and Fed hawk Warsh, focusing on potential balance-sheet discussion amid Treasury plans to issue more short-term debt and buy back about $4B long-term. A listener question prompts discussion of debt absorption, real yields, overindebtedness as deflationary, and currency depreciation as a release valve, citing Japan’s weakening yen alongside rising JGB yields. Other data: durable goods 1.1% vs 0.5%, personal income 0.4% vs 0.2%, spending 0.2, and Q2 GDP unchanged at 1.5% with nominal GDP in the 6s.

00:00 Market Wrap Overview

00:25 Bonds Oil Geopolitics

00:55 PCE Inflation Update

01:38 Fed Hike Odds

02:06 Jackson Hole Treasury Moves

03:09 Balance Sheet QT Talk

04:04 Debt Issuance Explained

05:16 Japan Yen Release Valve

06:04 Other Economic Data

06:45 GDP And Closing

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com