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The Dividend Cafe

The Bahnsen Group
The Dividend Cafe
Latest episode

1396 episodes

  • The Dividend Cafe

    Wednesday - September 2, 2026

    09/02/2026 | 6 mins.
    Brian Szytel recaps a modest market rebound after three down equity sessions, with weak internals and low volume as investors await Friday’s non-farm payrolls and next week’s CPI. The Dow rose 295 points, the S&P 500 gained 35 points (nearly 0.5%), and the Nasdaq added about 0.4%; rates were largely unchanged with the 10-year near 4.78, oil held around $90 WTI, and the yield curve remained steeper than recent periods. Economic data were mixed: ADP private payrolls missed slightly (38K vs. 47K expected) while July factory orders rose 0.9%. He then addresses whether buying back one’s own debt is intrinsically wrong, arguing it’s virtuous for individuals paying off loans, but for countries it often reflects refinancing via central bank actions (e.g., QE), which can support liquidity yet distort markets if done excessively.

    00:00 Market Rebound Overview

    00:24 Key Data Ahead

    00:52 Rates Oil And Internals

    01:16 Today Economic Prints

    01:43 Debt Buyback Question

    01:56 Personal Debt Payoff

    02:21 Central Bank Mechanics

    02:53 QE And Yield Curve Effects

    04:05 When It Goes Too Far

    04:43 Closing Thoughts

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    DividendCafe.com

    TheBahnsenGroup.com
  • The Dividend Cafe

    Tuesday - September 1, 2026

    09/01/2026 | 8 mins.
    Brian Szytel recaps a down market day driven by heightened Iran-U.S. tensions, higher oil prices (WTI up 5.9% near $90; Brent near $95), and rising interest rates (10-year around 4.79%), with the Dow down 419 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1% as long-duration assets weakened. Economic data was slightly below forecasts but still constructive, including 7.2 million job openings and an ISM manufacturing PMI of 54.6 (eighth month above 50). He notes a gap between Fed dot-plot projections and futures-implied rate paths and emphasizes how unreliable rate forecasts can be given policy lags. Addressing questions about foreign Treasury selling (China and Japan), he explains foreign ownership has fluctuated historically and argues the core issue is U.S. deficit spending and rising debt costs, while the dollar’s basket weight recently increased to 43%.

    00:00 September Market Recap

    00:24 Oil Spike and Rates Jump

    01:13 Stocks Slide and Rotation

    01:45 Economic Data Check

    02:23 Fed Dots Versus Futures

    03:07 Why Rate Forecasts Miss

    04:11 Foreign Treasury Holders

    06:06 Dollar Basket and Deficits

    06:38 Wrap Up and Q&A

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    DividendCafe.com

    TheBahnsenGroup.com
  • The Dividend Cafe

    Monday - August 31, 2026

    08/31/2026 | 13 mins.
    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cPVI9C

    David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action (Dow -374, S&P -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.12%; 10-year yield 4.76% up 3 bps), with energy leading on oil up 3% to about $86 and communication services lagging. He briefly shares midterm Senate race dynamics based on conversations with analysts, noting multiple paths for Democrats to win or lose the majority and warning against overconfidence in political predictions. Housing data showed August national median rent up 0.1% and down 0.8% year-over-year. He reviews Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech emphasizing price stability over employment, asserting a healthy labor market, concern about inflation, and a firm 2% target; markets raised implied September hike odds from ~38% to ~60% and to ~88% for a hike by year-end. Warsh discussed productivity questions (including AI), tight credit spreads, repudiated forward guidance with a “hall of mirrors” analogy, and delivered a cordial, potentially consensus-building tone. Bahnsen also notes a reported 35% U.S. government stake in a Venezuela oil venture with no short-term price impact, and that since 1950 September midterm years were evenly split between up and down markets.

    00:00 Welcome and Agenda

    01:05 Market Snapshot

    02:13 Midterm Election Outlook

    05:32 Housing and Rent Update

    05:47 Jackson Hole Fed Takeaways

    07:02 Rate Hike Odds and Targets

    09:00 Forward Guidance and Consensus

    11:25 Oil Moves and Venezuela Deal

    12:06 September Midterm Seasonality

    12:39 Closing and Next Episode Tease

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    DividendCafe.com

    TheBahnsenGroup.com
  • The Dividend Cafe

    Profit from the Profit Part 2

    08/28/2026 | 27 mins.
    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UKOOfH

    David Bahnsen hosts the final Friday Dividend Cafe of August as a part two discussion tied to his new book, "Profit for the Profit," outlining the philosophy and application of dividend growth investing and responding to common critiques. He argues investors should seek returns from the underlying profit-making enterprise rather than sentiment-driven momentum, and that dividend growth helps focus on individual company profits and reduces emotional extremes. He addresses five objections: buybacks as superior capital return (unreliable, often suspended, and frequently offset by share issuance); dividends as tax-inefficient (many accounts aren’t taxable, and dividends can improve behavior versus large embedded gains); dividends making companies “poorer” (stewardship and reinvestment choice matter); Berkshire not paying dividends (it receives dividends as a holding company); and dividends being only for retirees (starting earlier captures yield-on-cost compounding).

    00:00 Welcome and Book Launch

    03:08 Why Dividend Growth Matters

    06:59 Common Critiques Overview

    08:35 Buybacks Versus Dividends

    13:17 Dividends and Taxes

    15:32 Does Paying Dividends Reduce Value

    19:31 The Berkshire Dividend Myth

    20:57 Dividend Growth for Young Investors

    24:19 Closing Thoughts and Sign Off

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    DividendCafe.com

    TheBahnsenGroup.com
  • The Dividend Cafe

    Thursday - August 27, 2026

    08/27/2026 | 7 mins.
    Brian Szytel recaps Thursday, August 27 markets, highlighting a major AI chip company’s better-than-expected earnings and sharply higher 2028 guidance that lifted its stock 10% and pushed all three major indices higher, led by the Nasdaq, while bonds were flat with the 10-year at 4.67% and WTI oil up about 2% near $83. Economic updates included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (203k vs. 208k) and a wider July goods trade deficit of $118 billion, which he frames within the dollar-based reserve system. He also discusses US-Canada tariff tensions, arguing trade wars are zero-sum and ultimately hurt consumers and the economy. Addressing low S&P 500 dividend yield concerns, he says the decline is largely price-driven and maintains confidence in dividend growth investing focused on efficient capital use, including dividends and buybacks.

    00:00 Welcome and Setup

    00:24 AI Earnings Lift Markets

    01:08 Rates Oil and Data

    02:00 Trade Deficit Explained

    03:02 Tariffs and Trade Wars

    03:44 Dividend Yield Concerns

    04:06 Why Dividends Still Win

    05:40 Wrap Up and Disclosures

    Links mentioned in this episode:
    DividendCafe.com

    TheBahnsenGroup.com
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About The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).
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