The Dividend Cafe

On Sept. 30, Brian Szytel reports a bifurcated market into quarter-end, with the Dow down about 200 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise, led by large-cap growth; yields steepen as the 10-year and 30-year move higher. A cooler-than-expected PCE inflation report (core and year-over-year) lowers implied odds of an October Fed hike to about 35%, though Friday’s nonfarm payrolls could shift expectations. Other data were stronger: Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2%, ADP payrolls beat estimates, and consumer spending was robust, suggesting the economy is still humming despite high rates and debt concerns. He discusses a shifting Fed “put” narrative and answers why forward PEG ratios can look cheap versus expensive backward-looking metrics: higher expected growth, stronger profitability, and greater index concentration in the “Mag Seven,” with risk that earnings expectations could fall if AI spending disappoints.

00:00 Quarter End Market Recap

00:52 PCE Inflation And Yield Curve

02:07 Fed Hike Odds And Jobs Watch

02:33 GDP Payrolls And Spending

03:28 Bond Vigilantes And The Fed Put

05:35 Valuation Question CAPE Vs PEG

06:30 Tech Boom Comparisons And AI Risk

07:36 Dividend Focused Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reviews modest market declines (Dow -131, S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.10%) with major indexes still up YTD, and focuses on the bond selloff pushing the 10-year yield to about 5.24% amid speculation about 6%. He argues higher yields reflect both higher nominal growth near 6% and a Fed intent on reducing its balance sheet, with limited ability for Treasury financing tactics to meaningfully lower yields. He notes consumer confidence missed (81 vs. 89), JOLTS openings dipped slightly (7.1M vs. 7.2M), and Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.3% monthly but lag inflation amid high mortgage rates and weak price discovery. He answers why rates rise despite higher oil: the Fed targets elevated PCE/core inflation by tightening to cool broad-based price pressures.

00:00 Market Close Recap

00:29 Why Yields Are Rising

02:17 Fed Put and Bond Vigilantes

03:16 Where Rates May Settle

03:37 Today’s Economic Data

04:33 Housing Market Reality Check

05:21 Why Hike With High Oil

07:04 Wrap Up and Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4AC4xy1

From Las Vegas ahead of an investment conference, the host recaps a volatile market day (Dow -347, S&P -0.77%, Nasdaq -0.92%) while the S&P sits near all-time highs despite very weak breadth: ~60% of S&P 500 names are down 20%+ and the market has seen repeated 52-week lows exceed highs; he clarifies a misunderstood stat showing the weighted average decline among 430 down names is 21.7%. He ties the damage to rising yields (10-year ~5.23%), notes defensives led on the down day (staples, healthcare, energy), and argues mega-cap rallies can occur within a longer consolidation after stretched valuations, with a “rubber band” in relative sector valuations. He also covers friendlier U.S.–China tone with mostly status-quo trade, election prediction-market odds, flat August durable goods, more housing price cuts and rising inventory, mixed office-market trends by city, Fed proposals to raise bank oversight thresholds, and oil near $93 with Iran/diesel-export headlines; Q3 ends this week and TBG begins annual manager meetings next week.

00:00 Welcome From Vegas

00:51 Friday Energy Plug

01:43 Market Drop Recap

02:38 Breadth Warning Signs

05:51 Bond Yields And Sectors

07:00 Mega Cap Rally Context

08:13 Valuation Rubber Band

09:30 China Talks Update

10:37 Election Odds And Senate Map

13:18 Economic And Housing Data

15:04 Fed Oversight Proposal

15:40 Oil And Energy Headlines

16:44 Week Ahead And Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4rwGwnT

David Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe and explains he chose to focus on an energy investment theme rather than the week’s surge in bond yields. He argues investors and media overemphasize headlines about the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, and WTI prices, while the energy sector remains largely ignored due to its small S&P 500 weight (about 3.5% versus Apple at 7.4%, and midstream at 0.5%). He notes oil supply disruptions have been buffered by large inventory drawdowns, and that energy equities appear disconnected from oil’s move, with valuations running about 70% of their historical relationship to the broader market. He makes a bullish, longer-term case tied to AI-driven power needs and highlights midstream “2.0” fundamentals: rising domestic and global natural gas demand, expanding LNG export capacity, hard-to-permit pipelines with inflation-protected contracts, better governance, lower leverage, and strong distribution growth potential.

00:00 Welcome And Setup

01:07 Why Energy Is Ignored

05:03 Index Weighting Reality

08:49 Hormuz Supply Shock

11:55 Oil Versus Stocks Gap

14:08 AI Needs More Power

15:16 Valuation Case For Energy

17:14 Midstream Opportunity

18:24 Midstream PTSD And Comeback

19:51 Midstream 2.0 Tailwinds

22:20 Pipelines And Capital Discipline

25:15 Wrap Up And Takeaway

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Thursday, Sept. 24, Brian Szytel recaps a down Dow day with the S&P and Nasdaq flat as markets rebounded late on optimism about U.S.-Iran talks potentially easing the Strait of Hormuz situation; WTI still rose about 3% to roughly $95. He highlights the bigger story as higher interest rates, with the 10-year yield up another 10 bps to about 5.21% and up 120 bps year-to-date, arguing media may be overstating it and noting long rates also reflect growth expectations, strong earnings, and economic activity, while higher rates also boost interest income to savers and the economy. Economic data included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (197k) and stronger new home sales (684k). He also addresses international dividend stocks, noting foreign withholding taxes can be offset via foreign tax credits, but prefers U.S. dividend growers due to steadier dividend policies and less sector concentration than Europe/Asia.

00:00 Market Close Recap

00:38 Oil Surge And Rate Shock

01:31 Why Long Rates Rise

03:01 Higher Rates Upsides

04:10 Economic Data Check

04:54 International Dividend Stocks

05:50 US Versus Overseas Dividends

07:43 Wrap Up And Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com