The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd unpacks a night of significant Democratic wins — starting with Virginia voters passing the controversial redistricting measure, a result that hands Democrats a meaningful victory but at what Chuck argues is a steep cost. He questions whether Democrats are trading their most valuable brand asset, being seen as "the rule followers," for a short-term partisan gain they may not need: if Democrats narrowly win the House majority thanks to redistricting, then the gamble worked — but independents, who were already souring on partisan games, aren't likely to give Democrats the benefit of the doubt going forward. He warns that Abigail Spanberger, who wanted to govern from the center but was forced into the role of a partisan warrior to get this done, may not recover politically from the episode. He then turns to Iran, where Trump has unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely because he can't actually land a deal — Iran won the second round of negotiations simply by not showing up, the Chinese will eventually have to step in to pressure Tehran, and Trump is now visibly signaling desperation, meaning he'll be lucky to walk away with terms similar to what Obama negotiated years ago. He calls the war a strategic disaster worse than Iraq that will permanently taint the presidential prospects of both Marco Rubio and JD Vance, and closes with the big political picture: overall it was a terrible night for Republicans, new polling shows Democrats suddenly competitive in rural Midwestern states, all the data points to Democratic momentum heading into the midterms, the economy will be deeply unpopular by Election Day, and the only real advantage Republicans have left is money — a boon he argues is consistently overstated when the political environment is this bad for the party in power.
Finally Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 most overlooked races for the midterm elections and answers questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:15 Virginia voters pass redistricting measure, a big win for Democrats
03:00 Strength of Democratic party was being viewed as the “rule followers”
03:45 Democrats won’t get the benefit of the doubt with independents
04:45 There was a path to 8-3 for Dems with the original map
06:15 If Dems narrowly win the house majority, then redistricting worked
07:00 Dems are closer to winning now, but at what cost?
08:30 Spanberger wants to govern from center, but had to be a partisan warrior
10:30 Filing deadline for Virginia is FRIDAY, will we see GOP retirements?
11:00 Court case could disqualify the referendum
12:30 Florida likely to redistrict in response to Virginia
14:00 Florida redistricting makes a lot of light red districts that are vulnerable
15:30 These partisan acts will increase appetite for a third party
17:15 Abigail Spanberger may not recover politically from this
18:15 Trump can’t get Iran deal, unilaterally extends ceasefire indefinitely
19:00 Iran has won the second round of negotiations by not showing up
19:45 At some point the Chinese will put pressure on Iran to end this
20:30 Trump started a war he wasn’t prepared to finish
21:15 This war has been a strategic disaster, even worse than Iraq
22:00 Trump will be lucky to get terms similar to what Obama got
22:45 Trump is signaling to Iran that he’s desperate for a deal
24:30 The war will taint presidential chances for Rubio & Vance
25:15 Overall, it’s been a disastrous night for Republicans
26:00 We will have a very unpopular economy when the midterms arrive
26:30 New polling shows Democrats are competitive in rural midwest states
27:45 All the data shows Democratic momentum going into the midterms
28:15 The only advantage Republicans have is money
29:30 Tuesday was a really good day for team blue, and bad for team red
35:00 ToddCast Top 5 overlooked races this election cycle
36:00 #5 Florida governor
41:00 #4 Oregon governor
44:00 #3 Alabama governor
47:00 #2 Texas governor
51:30 #1 Minnesota senate
55:30 Ask Chuck
55:45 Would it be worse for Spanberger politically to lose redistricting fight?
58:15 Who in Trump’s orbit would be willing to invoke the 25th amendment?
1:02:15 Thoughts on Vance & importance of “political athleticism” for GOP in ‘28?
1:08:30 What are the long term impacts if Trump pulls out of NATO?
1:11:45 Which piece of legislation does the opposite party most misunderstand?
1:18:15 Do our elected officials actually understand China?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unpacks a night of significant Democratic wins — starting with Virginia voters passing the controversial redistricting measure, a result that hands Democrats a meaningful victory but at what Chuck argues is a steep cost. He questions whether Democrats are trading their most valuable brand asset, being seen as "the rule followers," for a short-term partisan gain they may not need: if Democrats narrowly win the House majority thanks to redistricting, then the gamble worked — but independents, who were already souring on partisan games, aren't likely to give Democrats the benefit of the doubt going forward. He warns that Abigail Spanberger, who wanted to govern from the center but was forced into the role of a partisan warrior to get this done, may not recover politically from the episode. He then turns to Iran, where Trump has unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely because he can't actually land a deal — Iran won the second round of negotiations simply by not showing up, the Chinese will eventually have to step in to pressure Tehran, and Trump is now visibly signaling desperation, meaning he'll be lucky to walk away with terms similar to what Obama negotiated years ago. He calls the war a strategic disaster worse than Iraq that will permanently taint the presidential prospects of both Marco Rubio and JD Vance, and closes with the big political picture: overall it was a terrible night for Republicans, new polling shows Democrats suddenly competitive in rural Midwestern states, all the data points to Democratic momentum heading into the midterms, the economy will be deeply unpopular by Election Day, and the only real advantage Republicans have left is money — a boon he argues is consistently overstated when the political environment is this bad for the party in power.
Then, Doug Sosnik — the veteran Democratic strategist, former Clinton White House political director, and one of the sharpest big-picture thinkers in American politics — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping conversation about where the country is headed and whether either party is prepared to meet the moment. Sosnik argues that every election cycle has a defining event that sets the political weather, and for 2026 it's unambiguously the Iran war — but with early voting expanding the calendar, the window for Republicans to fix their problems is razor thin. He breaks the American electorate into three buckets and notes that the critical 15% of swing voters who tend to align culturally with Trump have now turned against him, that the Republican brand actually outperforms both the Democratic brand and the MAGA brand in polling, and that the Democratic brand stubbornly refuses to improve despite Trump's failures — meaning the 2028 nominee, not the party label, will determine who wins. They identify a potential 60% majority that's fed up with the system itself, arguing that America has moved away from meritocracy toward family wealth in ways that demand creating a new ladder to middle-class life for non-college voters, and delivers a blunt generational verdict: real change won't happen until the boomers exit the stage, and 2028 will be like 1960 — the election that defines post-Trump America.
The conversation turns to the future of both parties, and Sosnik's analysis is bracingly unsentimental. He notes that more Republicans now identify with the GOP brand than with MAGA, that Vance lacks the charisma to inherit Trump's movement, and that the Trump family has been testing Don Jr.'s name in polling. They warn that the country doesn't want to vote Republican in 2028 but lacks confidence in Democrats, and point to the UK where both major parties are in danger of being replaced by insurgent movements. He closes with a candid assessment of the 2028 Democratic field — the weakest since 2004, with Rahm Emmanuel as the only candidate putting out real policy.The winner in 2028, Sosnik predicts, will be on the side of breaking things rather than defending the status quo, because the animating force in American politics on both the left and the right is now unmistakably populist.
Finally Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 most overlooked races for the midterm elections and answers questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:15 Virginia voters pass redistricting measure, a big win for Democrats
03:00 Strength of Democratic party was being viewed as the “rule followers”
03:45 Democrats won’t get the benefit of the doubt with independents
04:45 There was a path to 8-3 for Dems with the original map
06:15 If Dems narrowly win the house majority, then redistricting worked
07:00 Dems are closer to winning now, but at what cost?
08:30 Spanberger wants to govern from center, but had to be a partisan warrior
10:30 Filing deadline for Virginia is FRIDAY, will we see GOP retirements?
11:00 Court case could disqualify the referendum
12:30 Florida likely to redistrict in response to Virginia
14:00 Florida redistricting makes a lot of light red districts that are vulnerable
15:30 These partisan acts will increase appetite for a third party
17:15 Abigail Spanberger may not recover politically from this
18:15 Trump can’t get Iran deal, unilaterally extends ceasefire indefinitely
19:00 Iran has won the second round of negotiations by not showing up
19:45 At some point the Chinese will put pressure on Iran to end this
20:30 Trump started a war he wasn’t prepared to finish
21:15 This war has been a strategic disaster, even worse than Iraq
22:00 Trump will be lucky to get terms similar to what Obama got
22:45 Trump is signaling to Iran that he’s desperate for a deal
24:30 The war will taint presidential chances for Rubio & Vance
25:15 Overall, it’s been a disastrous night for Republicans
26:00 We will have a very unpopular economy when the midterms arrive
26:30 New polling shows Democrats are competitive in rural midwest states
27:45 All the data shows Democratic momentum going into the midterms
28:15 The only advantage Republicans have is money
29:30 Tuesday was a really good day for team blue, and bad for team red
36:15 Doug Sosnik joins The Chuck ToddCast
38:45 How much can the political environment change by midterms?
39:30 Every election cycle has a moment that sets the political weather
40:15 Iran war will be the defining event heading into midterms
41:30 With early voting, the window for Republicans to fix things is small
42:15 There used to be a correlation between economic numbers & mood
42:45 Average economic numbers are good, the mean numbers aren’t
44:15 We’ve moved away from meritocracy to family wealth
45:15 We have to create a ladder to middle class life for non-college voters
46:00 There’s a 60% majority to be had that’s fed up with the system itself
47:15 Politics is a lagging, not a leading indicator for voters’ concerns
48:00 The three buckets of American voters
48:30 The 15% swing voters align more with Trump, vote against incumbents
49:15 Trump has lost the swing voting third group
50:45 Progressives want their own presidency
51:30 Real change won’t happen until the boomers exit the stage
52:30 The 2028 election will be like 1960, define future of America post-Trump
54:45 More Republicans identifying with GOP than with MAGA
55:30 Republican party outperforms Dems & MAGA in polling
56:00 Democratic brand isn’t improving despite Trump’s failings
56:30 The 2028 Democratic nominee will determine who wins the election
57:15 3 recent campaigns became movements, Reagan, Obama & Trump
59:30 Vance doesn’t have the charisma to pick up Trump’s movement
1:00:15 Trumps have been testing Don Jr’s name in polling
1:02:30 Country doesn’t want to vote GOP in ‘28 but lack confidence in dems
1:03:45 Two major parties in the UK are in danger of being replaced
1:04:45 If independents win ‘26 will there be real appetite for one in ‘28?
1:06:45 Both parties are likely to go by the wayside, like other institutions
1:07:15 Lessons from Hungary?
1:08:30 Trump has become toxic to far-right parties around the world
1:10:30 For the last half century, both parties have been pragmatic about nominees
1:11:15 Progressives have gotten their agenda but not their candidates
1:13:00 The 2026 political environment is highly favorable for Dems
1:14:30 400 house seats aren’t even considered competitive
1:15:30 Senate map is tough for Democrats despite the political climate
1:16:00 If Democrats win in Iowa, that’s a sign of a wave election
1:17:15 No state has been more impacted by war & tariffs than Iowa
1:18:30 There are 25 rural states that Dems aren’t competitive in
1:19:15 Can’t be a majority party if you only win college educated voters
1:20:00 Republicans nationally have a massive money advantage
1:21:15 Money is an overstated advantage
1:21:45 Trump’s base hasn’t turned out to vote when he isn’t on the ballot
1:23:30 How can Democrats court cranky swing state independent voters?
1:25:00 The problem is with incentives, candidates more likely to lose a primary
1:26:15 Working class voters felt culturally more connected to Trump than to Biden
1:27:00 If Biden had a Republican senate, would Dems have a better brand today?
1:28:00 Biden didn’t truly have a political base, ran presidency to satisfy interest groups
1:28:45 Without Covid, Biden doesn’t win in 2020
1:30:45 ‘28 candidates must articulate why they are running & find their voice
1:31:45 Dems have their weakest field since 2004
1:32:15 Rahm Emmanuel is the only ‘28 hopeful putting out real policy
1:33:45 Newsom is more substantive than he gets credit for, but he’s also performative
1:35:15 Last time Dems lost popular vote was nominating San Francisco & Boston dems
1:36:45 Winner will be on the side of breaking things rather than defending status quo
1:37:45 Animating force in American politics is the populist left & right
1:40:00 We know the Democrats will win in midterms, the question by how much
1:41:00 ToddCast Top 5 overlooked races this election cycle
1:42:00 #5 Florida governor
1:47:00 #4 Oregon governor
1:50:00 #3 Alabama governor
1:53:00 #2 Texas governor
1:57:30 #1 Minnesota senate
2:01:30 Ask Chuck
2:01:45 Would it be worse for Spanberger politically to lose redistricting fight?
2:04:15 Who in Trump’s orbit would be willing to invoke the 25th amendment?
2:08:15 Thoughts on Vance & importance of “political athleticism” for GOP in ‘28?
2:14:30 What are the long term impacts if Trump pulls out of NATO?
2:17:45 Which piece of legislation does the opposite party most misunderstand?
2:24:15 Do our elected officials actually understand China?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Doug Sosnik — the veteran Democratic strategist, former Clinton White House political director, and one of the sharpest big-picture thinkers in American politics — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping conversation about where the country is headed and whether either party is prepared to meet the moment. Sosnik argues that every election cycle has a defining event that sets the political weather, and for 2026 it's unambiguously the Iran war — but with early voting expanding the calendar, the window for Republicans to fix their problems is razor thin. He breaks the American electorate into three buckets and notes that the critical 15% of swing voters who tend to align culturally with Trump have now turned against him, that the Republican brand actually outperforms both the Democratic brand and the MAGA brand in polling, and that the Democratic brand stubbornly refuses to improve despite Trump's failures — meaning the 2028 nominee, not the party label, will determine who wins. They identify a potential 60% majority that's fed up with the system itself, arguing that America has moved away from meritocracy toward family wealth in ways that demand creating a new ladder to middle-class life for non-college voters, and delivers a blunt generational verdict: real change won't happen until the boomers exit the stage, and 2028 will be like 1960 — the election that defines post-Trump America.
The conversation turns to the future of both parties, and Sosnik's analysis is bracingly unsentimental. He notes that more Republicans now identify with the GOP brand than with MAGA, that Vance lacks the charisma to inherit Trump's movement, and that the Trump family has been testing Don Jr.'s name in polling. They warn that the country doesn't want to vote Republican in 2028 but lacks confidence in Democrats, and point to the UK where both major parties are in danger of being replaced by insurgent movements. He closes with a candid assessment of the 2028 Democratic field — the weakest since 2004, with Rahm Emmanuel as the only candidate putting out real policy.The winner in 2028, Sosnik predicts, will be on the side of breaking things rather than defending the status quo, because the animating force in American politics on both the left and the right is now unmistakably populist.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Doug Sosnik joins The Chuck ToddCast
02:30 How much can the political environment change by midterms?
03:15 Every election cycle has a moment that sets the political weather
04:00 Iran war will be the defining event heading into midterms
05:15 With early voting, the window for Republicans to fix things is small
06:00 There used to be a correlation between economic numbers & mood
06:30 Average economic numbers are good, the mean numbers aren’t
08:00 We’ve moved away from meritocracy to family wealth
09:00 We have to create a ladder to middle class life for non-college voters
09:45 There’s a 60% majority to be had that’s fed up with the system itself
11:00 Politics is a lagging, not a leading indicator for voters’ concerns
11:45 The three buckets of American voters
12:15 The 15% swing voters align more with Trump, vote against incumbents
13:00 Trump has lost the swing voting third group
14:30 Progressives want their own presidency
15:15 Real change won’t happen until the boomers exit the stage
16:15 The 2028 election will be like 1960, define future of America post-Trump
18:30 More Republicans identifying with GOP than with MAGA
19:15 Republican party outperforms Dems & MAGA in polling
19:45 Democratic brand isn’t improving despite Trump’s failings
20:15 The 2028 Democratic nominee will determine who wins the election
21:00 3 recent campaigns became movements, Reagan, Obama & Trump
23:15 Vance doesn’t have the charisma to pick up Trump’s movement
24:00 Trumps have been testing Don Jr’s name in polling
26:15 Country doesn’t want to vote GOP in ‘28 but lack confidence in dems
27:30 Two major parties in the UK are in danger of being replaced
28:30 If independents win ‘26 will there be real appetite for one in ‘28?
30:30 Both parties are likely to go by the wayside, like other institutions
31:00 Lessons from Hungary?
32:15 Trump has become toxic to far-right parties around the world
34:15 For the last half century, both parties have been pragmatic about nominees
35:00 Progressives have gotten their agenda but not their candidates
36:45 The 2026 political environment is highly favorable for Dems
38:15 400 house seats aren’t even considered competitive
39:15 Senate map is tough for Democrats despite the political climate
39:45 If Democrats win in Iowa, that’s a sign of a wave election
41:00 No state has been more impacted by war & tariffs than Iowa
42:15 There are 25 rural states that Dems aren’t competitive in
43:00 Can’t be a majority party if you only win college educated voters
43:45 Republicans nationally have a massive money advantage
45:00 Money is an overstated advantage
45:30 Trump’s base hasn’t turned out to vote when he isn’t on the ballot
47:15 How can Democrats court cranky swing state independent voters?
48:45 The problem is with incentives, candidates more likely to lose a primary
50:00 Working class voters felt culturally more connected to Trump than to Biden
50:45 If Biden had a Republican senate, would Dems have a better brand today?
51:45 Biden didn’t truly have a political base, ran presidency to satisfy interest groups
52:30 Without Covid, Biden doesn’t win in 2020
54:30 ‘28 candidates must articulate why they are running & find their voice
55:30 Dems have their weakest field since 2004
56:00 Rahm Emmanuel is the only ‘28 hopeful putting out real policy
57:30 Newsom is more substantive than he gets credit for, but he’s also performative
59:00 Last time Dems lost popular vote was nominating San Francisco & Boston dems
1:00:30 Winner will be on the side of breaking things rather than defending status quo
1:01:30 Animating force in American politics is the populist left & right
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd surveys a dire geopolitical landscape where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, fuel rationing has begun in many places around the globe, and the Trump administration is scrambling to extend a fragile ceasefire with Iran — sending JD Vance back to Pakistan for another round of talks, a move Chuck says signals genuine desperation to end a war that has become a generational foreign policy disaster. Heargues that Iran's control of the strait is now a greater deterrent than nuclear weapons ever were, that the Iranians know Trump is on the clock and that time is firmly on Tehran's side — meaning the best Trump can realistically hope for is a deal that looks remarkably like the Obama nuclear agreement he once shredded. Oil and stock markets appear divorced from reality while energy markets are in major distress, China's position has been strengthened enormously and Netanyahu has effectively suckered Trump into a mess that will define American foreign policy for a generation. He then unpacks a bombshell Atlantic report painting FBI Director Kash Patel as absent, unreliable, and allegedly drunk on the job — noting that just because it's a "hit piece" doesn't mean it's not true, that rank-and-file intelligence professionals don't trust the people leading their agencies, and that Patel himself believes he's about to be fired because Trump personally despises anecdotes about drinking. He closes with Virginia's redistricting referendum, which ends Tuesday and looks likely to pass, but he questions whether Democrats are making a smart investment — blowing enormous political capital and damaging Governor Abigail Spanberger's brand to pick up only two House seats, a tradeoff that may not be worth the cost.
Then, Sarah Isgur — legal commentator, former DOJ spokesperson, and author of Last Branch Standing — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a comprehensive deep dive into the Supreme Court that challenges virtually everything the public thinks it knows about how the institution actually works. Isgur argues that the court's politics don't map neatly onto the current left-right spectrum, and that the court isn't really 6-3 but rather 3-3-3 — with a bloc of doctrinaire conservatives, a liberal minority, and a pragmatic center that includes Kavanaugh and Chief Justice Roberts. She reveals that Elena Kagan plays a major behind-the-scenes role that the public rarely sees, and that over the past 20 years more than 90% of rulings have had a liberal justice in the majority (undermining the narrative of a runaway conservative court)
The conversation turns to deeper structural concerns about the judiciary that Isgur argues are undermining the rule of law itself. She notes that today's justices all have eerily uniform résumés — a problem created by a system that essentially identifies future Supreme Court candidates by the time they're 18 and forces them to lead incredibly sheltered lives for both career and safety reasons — making them detached from the real world in ways that earlier, more varied courts were not. She is sharply critical of Congress for making the court the arbiter of fundamental rights, which has turned every confirmation into an existential battle — the refusal to take on issues like Roe legislatively forced them to the court, and now there's no real dialogue between the branches. They close by debating a provocative proposal: the confirmation threshold for justices should be raised to 60 or even 75 votes to force presidents to nominate consensus candidates, breaking the cycle of partisan warfare that has made the Federalist Society effectively a prerequisite for any aspiring conservative judge and turned the nomination process into something that is actively bad for both the court and the rule of law.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit America’s first war of choice: The Spanish American War. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:00 We’re in a precious position. Strait of Hormuz closed & fuel rationing is coming
05:00 Expect some sort of extension of the current ceasefire agreement
05:45 JD Vance headed back to Pakistan for another round of talks
06:30 Sending Vance shows they’re serious about trying to end war
07:15 Trump is desperate to get out of the war
08:00 Control of Strait of Hormuz is a greater deterrent than nukes
09:00 Oil & stock markets seem divorced from reality
09:45 Energy markets are is major distress
10:45 Trump’s approval has slipped, public knows the war is going badly
11:30 Trump is talking tough, but his actions are cautious
12:30 Iranians know Trump is desperate and Iranians have serious leverage
14:00 Iranians know Trump is on the clock, and they have time on their side
14:30 China’s position has been strengthened by Iran war
15:45 U.S. is stretched too thin currently to defend Taiwan
17:00 Energy shock increases demand for clean energy, where China leads
18:15 Bibi suckered Trump into a generational foreign policy disaster
19:15 We’re likely stuck without a resolution to the war for awhile
20:15 Best Trump can hope for is redoing the Obama nuclear deal
21:30 Time is running out on the 60 day war powers resolution deadline
22:45 Trump has 5 weeks to get a deal before congress is forced to step in
23:30 Atlantic publishes story about Kash Patel being MIA & drunk
24:30 Patel denied everything, hoping for White House backup
25:30 Just because it’s a “hit piece” doesn’t mean it’s not true
26:15 People working at the FBI don’t trust the guy leading it
28:00 Atlantic paints a portrait of an FBI leader that’s completely unreliable
29:00 Patel’s ineptitude creates a national security threat to the U.S.
30:30 Rank & file intel professionals don’t trust the people in charge
31:45 Trump hates anecdotes about drinking, Patel’s days are numbered
32:30 Patel believes he’s going to be fired
34:00 Balloting for Virginia redistricting ends on Tuesday, looks like it will pass
34:30 Democrats expending political capital to only pick up two house seats
35:30 Redistricting fight has been terrible politically for Abigail Spanberger
38:00 New map will trim two very blue districts and export voters to swing districts
40:30 Blowing all this political capital for two seats doesn’t seem worth it
42:15 Livestream on Tuesday evening breaking down the results from VA
48:30 Sarah Isgur (Last Branch Standing) joins the Chuck ToddCast
50:15 The Supreme Court’s politics don’t map neatly to current left/right
51:30 Bono called Chuck a “radical centrist”
52:15 Brett Kavanaugh’s biggest regret was not getting selfie with Bono
54:00 Songs that best comment on American political culture
57:00 Incrimentalism more important than liberal/conservative
58:00 Kavanaugh & Kagan most similar to Chuck in philosophy
59:30 Kagan plays a major role on the court behind the scenes
1:00:30 The reputation of the solicitor general has changed under Trump
1:01:15 Earlier justices didn’t have the uniform resume of the current justices
1:03:00 Current justices are detached from the real world
1:04:15 Alito likely retiring this summer or next as Dems senate chances increase
1:05:15 White House is eager to get a Supreme Court opening
1:06:00 Trump may have his hands tied, Alito will want to approve successor
1:08:00 Alito will want someone like him to replace him
1:08:30 Unlikely Ted Cruz or Mike Lee will be nominated for the court
1:09:30 We’ve narrowed down who can be justices by the time candidates are 18
1:10:15 Justices have to lead an incredibly sheltered life for safety
1:12:15 The court isn’t really 6-3, it’s 3-3-3
1:14:15 Which justices are the most overtly political for their side?
1:15:30 Gorsuch had best opinion of the year on Trump’s tariffs
1:16:15 Congress has abdicated their duty, forced the court to legislate
1:17:15 There’s no dialogue between congress & court. Court gets final word
1:18:30 Congress didn’t have the guts to take on Roe, forced it to the court
1:20:15 Court has become the arbiter of rights, making confirmations existential
1:21:45 Rights of criminal defendants are compromised by an elected judiciary
1:22:45 Elections for judges create perverse incentive structures
1:24:15 Jackson & Kavanaugh share view of their role on the court
1:25:15 In past 20 years, over 90% of rulings had a liberal in the majority
1:27:00 Justice Thomas has been remarkably consistent in his rulings
1:29:00 Gorsuch consistently relies on the text and applies it
1:29:45 Thomas is a hardcore originalist
1:31:30 Chief Justice Roberts has eschewed any type of label
1:33:30 Kagan tries to keep the court out of issues unless they must intervene
1:34:45 Justices are taking fewer cases and writing more opinions than ever
1:35:45 The court speaks in too many voices now
1:37:30 Justice Alito’s favorite movie is “Being There”
1:38:45 Breyer was a 2nd backup choice for the court
1:40:30 The value of moderation vs. abstention
1:42:15 Should the confirmation threshold for justices be raised to 60 or 75?
1:45:00 Requirement to join the Federalist Society if you want to be a judge
1:46:00 Proposal for how to fix the confirmation wars
1:48:30 Current nomination process is bad for the court & rule of law
1:53:30 Court is last branch standing for now, haven’t seen result of 50 vote confirmation
1:56:30 Thoughts on Sarah Isgur’s proposal on SCOTUS confirmations
1:57:30 ToddCast Time Machine April 20th, 1898 - Spanish American War
1:59:00 U.S.S. Maine exploded in Havana harbor, conclusion was Spain did it
1:59:30 The facts didn’t lead to the conclusion, the conclusion came first
2:00:15 Hearst & Pulitzer were locked in a publishing war, competing for readers
2:01:00 William McKinley didn’t want war, but pressure kept building
2:02:00 It was a War of Choice, and the press pushed leaders into war
2:02:30 Congress demanded that Spain leave Cuba
2:03:30 U.S. begins blockage of Cuba, basically kicking off the war
2:04:15 Congress backdated their declaration of war
2:05:00 Teddy Roosevelt’s rise scared establishment Republicans
2:05:30 The war produced Roosevelt’s presidency
2:06:30 It was a war of choice, until it felt like there was no other option
2:07:00 Wars of choice never end well
2:07:30 Ask Chuck
2:07:45 As Trump’s support erodes, any chance the 25th amendment gets invoked?
2:11:30 Does Federalist 10 still hold up? Is there a case for a constitutional convention?
2:18:00 A Top 5 list of races where you think the election projections are off?
2:24:30 Did I hear a dog in the background in your Wednesday episode?
2:26:45 Can you bring on a late night host like Colbert, Oliver or Maher?
2:29:30 What can and can’t be done with the huge fundraising hauls Dems are getting?
2:36:30 Thoughts on the NBA playoffs
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd surveys a dire geopolitical landscape where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, fuel rationing has begun in many places around the globe, and the Trump administration is scrambling to extend a fragile ceasefire with Iran — sending JD Vance back to Pakistan for another round of talks, a move Chuck says signals genuine desperation to end a war that has become a generational foreign policy disaster. Heargues that Iran's control of the strait is now a greater deterrent than nuclear weapons ever were, that the Iranians know Trump is on the clock and that time is firmly on Tehran's side — meaning the best Trump can realistically hope for is a deal that looks remarkably like the Obama nuclear agreement he once shredded. Oil and stock markets appear divorced from reality while energy markets are in major distress, China's position has been strengthened enormously and Netanyahu has effectively suckered Trump into a mess that will define American foreign policy for a generation. He then unpacks a bombshell Atlantic report painting FBI Director Kash Patel as absent, unreliable, and allegedly drunk on the job — noting that just because it's a "hit piece" doesn't mean it's not true, that rank-and-file intelligence professionals don't trust the people leading their agencies, and that Patel himself believes he's about to be fired because Trump personally despises anecdotes about drinking. He closes with Virginia's redistricting referendum, which ends Tuesday and looks likely to pass, but he questions whether Democrats are making a smart investment — blowing enormous political capital and damaging Governor Abigail Spanberger's brand to pick up only two House seats, a tradeoff that may not be worth the cost.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit America’s first war of choice: The Spanish American War. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
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Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
02:30 We’re in a precious position. Strait of Hormuz closed & fuel rationing is coming
03:30 Expect some sort of extension of the current ceasefire agreement
04:15 JD Vance headed back to Pakistan for another round of talks
05:00 Sending Vance shows they’re serious about trying to end war
05:45 Trump is desperate to get out of the war
06:30 Control of Strait of Hormuz is a greater deterrent than nukes
07:30 Oil & stock markets seem divorced from reality
08:15 Energy markets are is major distress
09:15 Trump’s approval has slipped, public knows the war is going badly
10:00 Trump is talking tough, but his actions are cautious
11:00 Iranians know Trump is desperate and Iranians have serious leverage
12:30 Iranians know Trump is on the clock, and they have time on their side
13:00 China’s position has been strengthened by Iran war
14:15 U.S. is stretched too thin currently to defend Taiwan
15:30 Energy shock increases demand for clean energy, where China leads
16:45 Bibi suckered Trump into a generational foreign policy disaster
17:45 We’re likely stuck without a resolution to the war for awhile
18:45 Best Trump can hope for is redoing the Obama nuclear deal
20:00 Time is running out on the 60 day war powers resolution deadline
21:15 Trump has 5 weeks to get a deal before congress is forced to step in
22:00 Atlantic publishes story about Kash Patel being MIA & drunk
23:00 Patel denied everything, hoping for White House backup
24:00 Just because it’s a “hit piece” doesn’t mean it’s not true
24:45 People working at the FBI don’t trust the guy leading it
26:30 Atlantic paints a portrait of an FBI leader that’s completely unreliable
27:30 Patel’s ineptitude creates a national security threat to the U.S.
29:00 Rank & file intel professionals don’t trust the people in charge
30:15 Trump hates anecdotes about drinking, Patel’s days are numbered
31:00 Patel believes he’s going to be fired
32:30 Balloting for Virginia redistricting ends on Tuesday, looks like it will pass
33:00 Democrats expending political capital to only pick up two house seats
34:00 Redistricting fight has been terrible politically for Abigail Spanberger
36:30 New map will trim two very blue districts and export voters to swing districts
39:00 Blowing all this political capital for two seats doesn’t seem worth it
40:45 Livestream on Tuesday evening breaking down the results from VA
46:00 ToddCast Time Machine April 20th, 1898 - Spanish American War
47:30 U.S.S. Maine exploded in Havana harbor, conclusion was Spain did it
48:00 The facts didn’t lead to the conclusion, the conclusion came first
48:45 Hearst & Pulitzer were locked in a publishing war, competing for readers
49:30 William McKinley didn’t want war, but pressure kept building
50:30 It was a War of Choice, and the press pushed leaders into war
51:00 Congress demanded that Spain leave Cuba
52:00 U.S. begins blockage of Cuba, basically kicking off the war
52:45 Congress backdated their declaration of war
53:30 Teddy Roosevelt’s rise scared establishment Republicans
54:00 The war produced Roosevelt’s presidency
55:00 It was a war of choice, until it felt like there was no other option
55:30 Wars of choice never end well
56:00 Ask Chuck
56:15 As Trump’s support erodes, any chance the 25th amendment gets invoked?
1:00:00 Does Federalist 10 still hold up? Is there a case for a constitutional convention?
1:06:30 A Top 5 list of races where you think the election projections are off?
1:13:00 Did I hear a dog in the background in your Wednesday episode?
1:15:15 Can you bring on a late night host like Colbert, Oliver or Maher?
1:18:00 What can and can’t be done with the huge fundraising hauls Dems are getting?
1:25:00 Thoughts on the NBA playoffs
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.