The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd unloads on newly confirmed Attorney General Todd Blanche for appearing at a political rally alongside Trump — a line past attorneys general knew better than to cross — and for openly stating that the Justice Department won't be independent of the White House. Chuck argues Republicans are making the DOJ far more nakedly partisan than any prior administration, that the senators who voted to confirm Blanche should be ashamed of themselves, and that Blanche is essentially telling the country in advance that the institution won't hold. He turns to the horror stories surfacing about morale and conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, where Trump's response was that the deployment hasn't gone on nearly long enough — proof, Chuck argues, that neither Trump nor Hegseth is even pretending to care about the people they've deployed, and that America was taken into a war it was never prepared to fight. After years of record military budgets producing bad results, Chuck’s question is simple and furious: what the hell have we been paying for? He identifies a clear leadership problem at the Pentagon, then pivots to what he sees as the coming Republican civil war over JD Vance, who now says he wants to end the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and who views America's alliances as liabilities rather than strengths — positions Vance will have to actually sell on the merits, because he doesn't have Trump's charisma to carry them, and positions that could drive a meaningful number of Republicans out of a Vance-led party altogether. Chuck closes with a genuinely provocative question about the missing anti-war movement: where are the protests over Iran? He wonders aloud whether the Gaza demonstrations were ever really an anti-war movement at all, whether they were as organically American-driven as they appeared, and argues the silence around Iran is revealing in ways nobody on either side seems eager to examine — before previewing Tuesday's Florida primaries.
Politico politics bureau chief and senior political columnist Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast for a reporter's-eye tour of the 2028 landscape, starting from an observation both men keep circling: the governing wing of each party is badly out of step with its own voters. Martin walks through the Democratic field with real granularity. Pete Buttigieg carries genuine Biden baggage and is fundamentally a creature of institutions — he isn't going to burn the house down, which is precisely why the left will never trust his establishment credentials, and why Martin wonders aloud whether his future might be more as an advisor than a candidate. On AOC, Martin's read is that the entire question is simply whether she runs: if she does, she's the lead car in the progressive lane and could clear it outright, and she'd be formidable in a crowded field. He notes it's no accident she reemerged right after El-Sayed's Michigan win, that she's been careful and disciplined about picking her spots during the primaries, and that she more than held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church — which matters enormously given the Democratic calendar was explicitly designed to stymie progressives by putting South Carolina first. Martin isn't at all convinced Jon Ossoff runs, even though Ossoff checks every box on the list of things Democrats have historically wanted, and he thinks Abdul El-Sayed could be a genuinely formidable presidential candidate. The overarching question, as Martin frames it, is whether Democrats vote with their head or their heart in 2028 — a decision the November midterms will shape more than anything else.
On the Republican side, they point out Vance simply wasn't a good candidate when he ran for Senate and needed both Trump and Peter Thiel to drag him over the finish line, that Rubio's presidential campaigns always ran into whoever's "turn" it was, and that the fastest way to lose in this environment is to be seen as one of the donor candidates. Vance's real challenge, Martin argues, is the Tucker Carlson model — and the open question of who carries that banner in 2028. He and Chuck agree the far left is currently stronger than the far right within their respective parties, and that insurgencies are a natural feature of the party out of power. Nothing, Martin says flatly, gets better for Republicans between now and the midterms; the Iranians want to humiliate Trump and Jimmy Carter him, and they're timing their moves to the American political calendar. They agree Democrats are either picking up two Senate seats or six with very little in between, and predict Greg Abbott will have to spend real money to win in Texas. Plus: why in-person interviews still beat remote ones, the disappearance of the old guard of Tennessee Republican politics, how Buttigieg's sexuality might factor into a national campaign, why online small-dollar money means Democrats no longer need to court only big donors — and whether UVA can actually contend in football this year.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:30 Shout out to ReCenter Indiana
07:30 Todd Blanche appeared at political rally with Trump, now as AG
08:00 Past Attorneys General knew better than to act so partisan
08:30 Blanche says DOJ won’t be independent of the White House
09:15 Republicans are making DOJ far more partisan than prior admins
10:15 Senators who confirmed Blanche should be ashamed of themselves
11:15 Blanche is telling us that the institution of the DOJ won’t hold
12:00 Horror stories surface about morale & conditions on USS Abraham Lincoln
12:30 Trump says deployment hasn’t gone on nearly long enough
13:00 Trump and Hegseth didn’t even pretend to care about these soldiers
13:45 Clearly we were taken into a war that we weren’t prepared for
14:15 We keep passing record military budgets & getting bad results
15:00 What the hell have we been paying for?
15:30 We have a clear leadership problem at the Pentagon
16:45 The coming civil war inside the Republican party over JD Vance
17:15 Vance says he wants to end the dollar as the reserve currency
17:45 Vance views alliances as liabilities rather than strengths
18:15 Vance doesn’t have Trump’s charisma, will have to sell his argument
18:45 Many Republicans might leave a Vance Republican party
19:30 Where are the protests and the anti-war movement over Iran?
20:30 Was Gaza actually an anti-war movement?
21:00 Were Gaza protests not as American driven as we thought?
22:15 The lack of protest over Iran is revealing
23:15 Preview of Florida primary elections on Tuesday
28:00 Jonathan Martin joins The Chuck ToddCast
29:30 Why in-person interviews are so much better than remote
31:30 The old guard of GOP politics in Tennessee are gone
33:30 The governing wing of each party aren’t agreeing with the voters
34:15 How does Pete Buttigieg navigate carrying “Biden baggage”?
34:45 Pete is a creature of the institutions, he won’t burn down the house
35:30 The left won’t ever trust Pete’s establishment credentials
36:30 How Pete’s sexuality could affect a presidential run
37:30 Is his future more in an advisor role than an elected official?
40:00 If AOC runs in 2028, she’ll be the lead car in the progressive lane
41:30 The question surrounding AOC is “will she or won’t she run”
42:00 The presidential campaign will be shaped by November midterms
42:30 Do the Dems go with their head or their heart in 28?
44:45 Insurgencies happen in this environment for party out of power
46:15 Nothing gets better between now and the midterms for Republicans
47:45 The Iranians want to humiliate Trump and “Jimmy Carter” him
48:45 Besides Vance, Rubio and Youngkin, who else might run for the GOP?
49:30 Who carries the Tucker Carlson banner in ‘28?
51:45 Vance was not a good candidate when he ran for senate
52:30 Vance needed Trump & Peter Thiel to get him over the finish line
53:30 Rubio’s campaigns were challenging the person whose turn it was
54:45 You don’t want to be seen as one of the “donor candidates”
55:30 Vance’s biggest challenge will be of the Tucker model
56:00 The far left is stronger than the far right
59:00 Democrats primary calendar designed to stymie progressives
1:00:00 Impact of South Carolina going first
1:01:30 AOC would clear progressive lane & be formidable in crowded field
1:02:30 Not at all convinced that Jon Ossoff runs in ‘28
1:03:00 Democrats have a type, and Ossoff checks all those boxes
1:04:15 Abdul El-Sayed could be formidable as a presidential candidate
1:05:00 AOC could emerge from South Carolina in a strong position
1:05:30 AOC held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church
1:06:15 Not an accident AOC reemerged after El-Sayed’s win
1:08:15 AOC has been smart and careful to pick her spots during primaries
1:09:30 What will keep prominent Dems from running?
1:10:00 There’s lots of Dem donor money online, don’t need only big $ donors
1:11:30 Dems are either picking up two senate seats… or six
1:12:30 How cemented is the red/blue map?
1:15:00 Kansas could be ‘06 Indiana but Dem hasn’t won senate seat since 30s
1:16:15 Voters don’t like the public school funding cuts for vouchers
1:17:30 Greg Abbott will have to spend big to win his race
1:18:00 Will UVA be a contender in football?
1:25:00 No time machine this week
1:25:45 Ask Chuck
1:26:00 Why doesn’t congress vote on more clean standalone bills?
1:29:15 List of biggest presidential blunders
1:32:30 Dems chances of shifting red states in the midwest?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Politico politics bureau chief and senior political columnist Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast for a reporter's-eye tour of the 2028 landscape, starting from an observation both men keep circling: the governing wing of each party is badly out of step with its own voters. Martin walks through the Democratic field with real granularity. Pete Buttigieg carries genuine Biden baggage and is fundamentally a creature of institutions — he isn't going to burn the house down, which is precisely why the left will never trust his establishment credentials, and why Martin wonders aloud whether his future might be more as an advisor than a candidate. On AOC, Martin's read is that the entire question is simply whether she runs: if she does, she's the lead car in the progressive lane and could clear it outright, and she'd be formidable in a crowded field. He notes it's no accident she reemerged right after El-Sayed's Michigan win, that she's been careful and disciplined about picking her spots during the primaries, and that she more than held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church — which matters enormously given the Democratic calendar was explicitly designed to stymie progressives by putting South Carolina first. Martin isn't at all convinced Jon Ossoff runs, even though Ossoff checks every box on the list of things Democrats have historically wanted, and he thinks Abdul El-Sayed could be a genuinely formidable presidential candidate. The overarching question, as Martin frames it, is whether Democrats vote with their head or their heart in 2028 — a decision the November midterms will shape more than anything else.
On the Republican side, they point out Vance simply wasn't a good candidate when he ran for Senate and needed both Trump and Peter Thiel to drag him over the finish line, that Rubio's presidential campaigns always ran into whoever's "turn" it was, and that the fastest way to lose in this environment is to be seen as one of the donor candidates. Vance's real challenge, Martin argues, is the Tucker Carlson model — and the open question of who carries that banner in 2028. He and Chuck agree the far left is currently stronger than the far right within their respective parties, and that insurgencies are a natural feature of the party out of power. Nothing, Martin says flatly, gets better for Republicans between now and the midterms; the Iranians want to humiliate Trump and Jimmy Carter him, and they're timing their moves to the American political calendar. They agree Democrats are either picking up two Senate seats or six with very little in between, and predict Greg Abbott will have to spend real money to win in Texas. Plus: why in-person interviews still beat remote ones, the disappearance of the old guard of Tennessee Republican politics, how Buttigieg's sexuality might factor into a national campaign, why online small-dollar money means Democrats no longer need to court only big donors — and whether UVA can actually contend in football this year.

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Jonathan Martin joins The Chuck ToddCast
01:30 Why in-person interviews are so much better than remote
03:30 The old guard of GOP politics in Tennessee are gone
05:30 The governing wing of each party aren’t agreeing with the voters
06:15 How does Pete Buttigieg navigate carrying “Biden baggage”?
06:45 Pete is a creature of the institutions, he won’t burn down the house
07:30 The left won’t ever trust Pete’s establishment credentials
08:30 How Pete’s sexuality could affect a presidential run
09:30 Is his future more in an advisor role than an elected official?
12:00 If AOC runs in 2028, she’ll be the lead car in the progressive lane
13:30 The question surrounding AOC is “will she or won’t she run”
14:00 The presidential campaign will be shaped by November midterms
14:30 Do the Dems go with their head or their heart in 28?
16:45 Insurgencies happen in this environment for party out of power
18:15 Nothing gets better between now and the midterms for Republicans
19:45 The Iranians want to humiliate Trump and “Jimmy Carter” him
20:45 Besides Vance, Rubio and Youngkin, who else might run for the GOP?
21:30 Who carries the Tucker Carlson banner in ‘28?
23:45 Vance was not a good candidate when he ran for senate
24:30 Vance needed Trump & Peter Thiel to get him over the finish line
25:30 Rubio’s campaigns were challenging the person whose turn it was
26:45 You don’t want to be seen as one of the “donor candidates”
27:30 Vance’s biggest challenge will be of the Tucker model
28:00 The far left is stronger than the far right
31:00 Democrats primary calendar designed to stymie progressives
32:00 Impact of South Carolina going first
33:30 AOC would clear progressive lane & be formidable in crowded field
34:30 Not at all convinced that Jon Ossoff runs in ‘28
35:00 Democrats have a type, and Ossoff checks all those boxes
36:15 Abdul El-Sayed could be formidable as a presidential candidate
37:00 AOC could emerge from South Carolina in a strong position
37:30 AOC held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church
38:15 Not an accident AOC reemerged after El-Sayed’s win
40:15 AOC has been smart and careful to pick her spots during primaries
41:30 What will keep prominent Dems from running?
42:00 There’s lots of Dem donor money online, don’t need only big $ donors
43:30 Dems are either picking up two senate seats… or six
44:30 How cemented is the red/blue map?
47:00 Kansas could be ‘06 Indiana but Dem hasn’t won senate seat since 30s
48:15 Voters don’t like the public school funding cuts for vouchers
49:30 Greg Abbott will have to spend big to win his race
50:00 Will UVA be a contender in football?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What started as a simple sports question: why did Mark Walter sell the Los Angeles Lakers after just 14 months? — turned into something else entirely. In Part 1 of this two-part ToddCast Special Report, Chuck Todd pulls the thread from a record $12.5 billion franchise sale to the life insurance companies, private credit vehicles, and obscure Delaware LLCs sitting underneath one of the least understood transformations in American finance since 2008. The facts on the record: Walter's Delaware Life Insurance Co. and Clear Spring Life and Annuity Co. received grand jury subpoenas from Manhattan prosecutors in February, disclosed in June 26 regulatory filings, with a parallel SEC review, following earlier inquiries into Guggenheim's $362 billion money management arm. After receiving the subpoenas, both insurers conducted internal reviews, found reporting errors, and revised earlier disclosures — with Delaware Life disclosing an additional $16 billion in private credit assets linked to affiliated entities beyond what had previously been reported. Chuck is emphatic about what that does not mean: no money disappeared, no loans were declared bad, and a disclosure change is not a financial loss. No charges have been announced against the companies or any individuals, Group 1001 says it is cooperating fully with federal authorities and that its financial position remains strong, and the filings did not state that assets were improperly managed or that investors suffered losses.
From there, Chuck builds the machine from the ground up in plain English — a retiree in Indiana buying an annuity, an insurer that has to earn enough to keep that promise, a post-2008 world where banks got safer and the risky lending simply moved somewhere with no public market attached to it. He traces Walter's career from asset-backed securitization in the 1990s through the 2012 Dodgers purchase (and the question Andrew Ross Sorkin asked at the time about where the money came from), through the corporate genealogy of Guggenheim, Delaware Life, Clear Spring, and Group 1001, to insurance filings showing hundreds of millions in debt tied to the Dodgers' regional sports network and ticket revenue. He credits the reporting he's leaning on throughout — Katie Baker at The Ringer, independent researcher Nick Nemeth at Mispriced Assets, plus Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, and the Financial Times — and he is scrupulous about the line between what the public record establishes and what it simply cannot. The core question isn't whether anyone broke the law; investigators with subpoena power will answer that. It's whether we understand this system well enough to know what happens when it comes under stress — because when the assets underneath an institution's balance sheet can't be continuously tested in a public market, how much confidence should any of us have in the numbers? Part 2 continues the story.
Timeline:
00:00 Why did Mark Walter sell the Lakers? Pulling the thread
00:30 This stopped being a basketball story
00:45 A record $12.5B sale — and why the seller is the story, not the buyers
01:15 Walter took control just 14 months earlier at a $10B valuation
01:30 The thread led to life insurance companies
02:00 A financial market that's grown enormously since the last crisis
02:30 Things that rhyme with 2008 — and things that rhyme with Enron
02:45 Executive Life: the insurer that failed three decades ago
03:15 Three different historical examples — not the same thing
03:45 Not saying another 2008 is coming
04:00 "A sneaking suspicion we may be looking at the beginning of something very bad"
04:15 The questions public filings simply cannot answer
05:15 Why some answers only exist in depositions
05:30 Why the federal investigation matters — subpoena power
06:00 The rule for this episode: what we know vs. what we don't
06:30 The central question about measuring financial strength
07:15 Why this should be a five-alarm fire for regulators
07:45 An enormous market built around things that are private by definition
08:15 Credit where it's due: The Ringer, Mispriced Assets, WSJ, Bloomberg, FT
09:15 Connecting dots vs. building a case
10:00 We made banks safer after 2008 — the money went somewhere else
11:00 Even if it's all legal, the larger question remains
11:45 A simple rule: when someone tells you "it's complicated"
12:15 Complexity as a feature, not a bug
13:00 The innocent explanation: a $2.5B gain in 14 months
13:30 Iger and Kushner were already exploring an NBA expansion team
13:45 Why buy the Lakers instead of building from scratch
14:45 What "valued at $10 billion" does and doesn't mean
15:30 We don't know how much cash Walter personally receives
15:45 Why sell at all? Walter collects teams, he doesn't flip them
16:30 Why only the Lakers? He's keeping the Dodgers
17:15 February grand jury subpoenas and the parallel SEC review
17:30 The disclosure change inside the insurers' filings
18:15 A disclosure change is not a financial loss
19:30 Nobody's been charged; companies say they're cooperating
20:00 Reporting on liquidity — and the precision that question requires
21:00 Why the timing is a legitimate reporting question
21:15 Keeping two separate sports stories separate
21:45 The FIFA deal collapsed roughly 10 days before the Lakers deal
22:15 What the timing does and does not establish
23:00 The political question: Josh Kushner, Jared Kushner, the executive branch
23:45 The pattern is context — it is not evidence
24:00 No evidence of a quid pro quo
24:45 Why the question stays on the shelf
25:15 What does "billionaire" actually mean?
26:00 Who is Mark Walter? Cedar Rapids, a concrete plant, and anonymity
27:15 "I'm nothing special. I'm just the king of common sense."
27:45 Why the low profile matters to this story
28:30 Liberty Hampshire and asset-backed securitization
29:30 Meeting the Guggenheims and building Guggenheim Partners
30:45 Wealth vs. commanding capital that isn't yours
31:45 2012: buying the Dodgers, and the Frank McCourt cautionary tale
33:00 Baseball wanted the exact opposite of McCourt
33:45 Andrew Ross Sorkin's question: where's the rest of the money?
34:15 Insurance company capital in the Dodgers financing
35:15 How does retirement money end up near a baseball team?
36:30 Following the money: a hypothetical retiree in Indiana
37:15 The annuity bargain and what insurers do with the money
38:15 How 2008 scrambled the insurance business
39:00 Low rates and the hunt for yield
39:45 Chuck's Widget Company and the loan the bank won't make
41:00 Money always finds a way — the lesson from campaign finance
41:45 What private credit actually is
42:15 The genuine advantages of private credit
43:00 Stickier capital — and why runs still happen
43:45 Private credit isn't inherently bad. What happens when it gets big?
44:15 No public market means no continuous price check
45:15 What replaces the market as the check on valuation?
46:00 Two sides looking for each other
47:00 Multiplying one retiree's $100,000 by hundreds of thousands
47:45 What happens when the same person owns both sides?
48:30 This is an entire industry, not one man's invention
49:15 Guggenheim's move into insurance and the roots of Group 1001
50:30 The ecosystem: asset management, insurance, private credit
51:00 Why the corporate structure is so hard to follow
51:30 Sportsnet LA and American Media Productions
52:00 Roughly $587M of that debt held by the two insurers, per filings
52:30 Dodgers Tickets LLC and slicing up a franchise
53:00 Is the Dodgers one entity or many?
53:30 Asset-backed securitization, applied to a baseball team
54:30 Is lending against Dodgers TV revenue inherently bad?
55:00 The brother analogy: conflicts and other people's money
55:30 February: subpoenas to Delaware Life and Clear Spring
56:15 The assets were always on the books — the question is characterization
56:30 General interrogatory 13.2 and the original 3% answer
57:00 The revised figure: roughly $16.4B described as dependent on affiliates
57:30 Three separate questions the public record can't resolve
58:15 What the internal reviews concluded
58:45 Comparing that figure to Delaware Life's reported capital and surplus
59:15 What the number does NOT mean
59:45 Concentration, governance, and disclosure
1:00:30 The questions that actually matter
1:01:00 Why the opacity itself is part of the story
1:01:15 Someone looked at the individual borrowers, one by one
1:02:00 Nick Nemeth and the Mispriced Assets research
1:03:15 Why independent research matters in the new media world
1:03:45 Roughly 230 holdings with striking similarities
1:04:00 The names: Verdant Hills, Pines, Iroquois, Yellow Creek
1:04:30 Special purpose vehicles — what's inside the box?
1:05:00 The legitimate reasons to use an LLC
1:05:30 How structure can change regulatory treatment
1:06:15 Does the legal wrapper describe the economic risk underneath?
1:06:45 Does that explain 230 vehicles? We don't know.
1:07:15 The echo of the mortgage crisis
1:08:00 Formation dates, filing numbers, and same-day funding
1:08:45 Roughly 44% of positions held by both insurers, purchased the same day
1:09:15 Innocent explanations exist — but this looks like a system
1:09:30 The questions only investigators can answer
1:10:00 Identification numbers and why outsiders can't check a price
1:10:45 A sophisticated process may exist — but it isn't a public market
1:11:15 What's a private note worth this morning?
1:11:30 Carried at or near purchase price: the concern raised
1:12:00 The great irony: the Lakers are the easy thing to value
1:12:30 Who owns these investments — and who was promised what
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In Part 2 of this ToddCast Special Report, Chuck Todd picks up the thread where Part 1 left it: if an insurance company's capital cushion is determined by how risky its investments are judged to be, then who is doing the judging? The answer leads to private letter ratings — a corner of finance almost no one outside it has heard of, and one that has exploded in size. Wall Street Journal reporting by Shane Shiflett and Heather Gillers assembled data on nearly 18,000 privately rated instruments held by U.S. insurers, and the growth curve is the number to remember: roughly $47 billion in 2018 to roughly $480 billion seven years later, with one estimate putting total private credit in insurance portfolios near $1 trillion. Much of that grading runs through firms most people have never heard of, and Chuck focuses on Egan-Jones, which privately graded roughly $40 billion of debt held by U.S. insurers, faces a 2024 lawsuit from two former executives alleging they were fired after raising conflict-of-interest concerns and that the firm pressured staff to inflate ratings, has drawn SEC questions about its reliability, and in January was removed by Bermuda regulators from their list of recognized ratings providers — all of which Egan-Jones forcefully denies, saying it stands behind the integrity and independence of its work. Chuck is careful throughout about what this does and does not establish: agencies can legitimately disagree, private raters often see borrower information outsiders never will, and none of it means any particular rating is wrong. It means the ratings deserve scrutiny, because if the grade helps set the size of the rainy day fund, being wrong about the grade means being wrong about the cushion.
From there the episode widens out. Chuck walks through what a clean audit opinion actually certifies versus what people assume it certifies, revisits Executive Life — the insurer that reached for yield in junk bonds in the 1980s and was eventually seized — as a more instructive warning than Enron or 2008, and is direct that this is not a story about an insurer on the brink: Group 1001 says it is cooperating fully and that its financial position remains sound, Delaware Life reported roughly $69 billion in assets as of March and Clear Spring roughly $16 billion, and no charges have been announced against the companies or any individuals. AM Best has affirmed both companies' A- (Excellent) financial strength ratings while revising their outlooks to negative following the reclassification of private credit investments from unaffiliated to affiliated. Complicated private assets are not insolvency; related-party exposure is not insolvency; a federal investigation is not insolvency. The question Chuck is actually chasing is structural — whether a system split across fifty state insurance departments, the SEC, the Fed, offshore reinsurance regulators, and private ratings firms can assemble the whole machine fast enough when one piece breaks, and whether the real lesson of the post-2008 era is that we made the banks safer without ever asking where the behavior would go. He lays out three ways this ends, six specific questions he'd chase with subpoena power he doesn't have, and — unusually — the exact evidence that would bring him back in six months to say the warning lights looked worse than the engine. Because capitalism doesn't run on money alone. It runs on people believing that a price means what it says, that a rating means something, and that somebody understands the risk underneath a promise made to a retiree thirty years out.
Timeline:
00:00 Recapping Part 1: inside Mark Walter's world of structured finance
00:30 Who looked inside the box and decided how safe it was?
01:00 Why the risk grade determines the size of an insurer's cushion
01:30 Credit rating agencies as the report card for debt
02:00 A better grade can mean less capital sitting behind it
02:15 The special purpose vehicle, the note, and the rating
02:45 Does the grade on the box accurately reflect what's inside?
03:15 WSJ data on nearly 18,000 privately rated investments
03:30 From $47 billion in 2018 to $480 billion seven years later
03:45 One estimate puts private credit near $1 trillion in insurance portfolios
04:15 What "privately rated" actually means
04:30 Private letter ratings and what the public can't see
05:00 Why the quality and independence of the rating matters so much
05:15 Egan-Jones — and the Arthur Andersen flashback
05:45 The ratings agencies you know, and the one you don't
06:00 Roughly $40 billion of insurer-held debt privately rated by Egan-Jones
06:15 Egan-Jones also rated the Dodgers TV network debt
06:30 Following the chain from annuity customer to capital cushion
06:45 Who pays the ratings agencies? The inherent tension
07:15 The Journal's comparison: roughly one grade higher on average
07:45 Egan-Jones strongly disputes the Journal's analysis
08:00 Former executives' lawsuit alleging pressure to inflate ratings
08:15 Egan-Jones denies it; the SEC has examined its processes
08:30 Bermuda removed Egan-Jones as a recognized ratings provider
08:45 Allianz's response: requiring a second rating
09:15 This doesn't mean the ratings are wrong — it means scrutiny
09:30 Enter the auditor: KPMG and the clean opinions
10:00 What an audit opinion addresses — and what it doesn't
10:30 The right question to ask about a clean opinion
11:00 Executive Life: the more useful historical warning
11:30 Junk bonds, Michael Milken, and the reach for yield
12:00 How Executive Life ended — and why it isn't the same thing
12:15 The evidence that cuts against the scariest version of this story
12:30 Delaware Life's reported assets, capital, and surplus
12:45 Financial strength ratings and what "A-" actually means
13:00 The more recent caution from the ratings agencies
13:30 This is not an insurer on the verge of seizure
13:45 The real question: confidence in conventional measures of strength
14:00 Why asset quality matters when you're backing promises
14:30 The safety net: state guaranty associations
14:45 And who ultimately pays for that safety net
15:00 Accumulating echoes: Executive Life, Enron, and 2008
15:45 The warning lights of 2026
16:15 Not a crisis — but a reason to ask better questions
16:30 Can regulators adapt as fast as the system is changing?
17:00 What regulators are actually doing right now
17:30 This is not asleep-at-the-switch
17:45 The structural problem: nobody sees the whole machine
18:15 Fifty states, fifty insurance departments
18:45 Why we regulate different financial businesses differently
19:00 Assembling the machine when each regulator holds one piece
19:45 Finance moves at the speed of a term sheet
20:15 Regulation moves at the speed of rulemaking
20:45 Understanding regulatory arbitrage
21:00 Same television, different rules
21:45 Most regulatory arbitrage is perfectly legal
22:00 But risk doesn't change just because the address does
22:15 Why regulators are reconsidering what qualifies as a bond
22:30 Show me what's inside the box, not the wrapping paper
23:00 The rules are being rewritten — but the money is already there
23:30 The mistake Washington may have made after 2008
24:00 You can't pass a law eliminating the desire to make money
24:45 The campaign finance parallel
25:00 We regulated the scene of the accident
25:30 We get very good at preventing the last financial crisis
26:00 Incentives work: if banks pull back, somebody else lends
26:15 Maybe the behavior simply migrated
27:15 The systemic stress test Chuck doesn't think we can pass
27:45 Why the investigation is useful regardless of the outcome
28:00 Looking through the legal boxes to the economics underneath
28:30 Where the central argument lands
29:15 What happens when something goes wrong? The honest answer
29:30 The strongest case that nothing catastrophic happens
30:00 Why private credit isn't structured like a bank run
30:15 Longer-term liabilities and patient money
30:45 Three ways this story could end
31:00 Possibility one: Walter is the problem
31:15 Possibility two: an extreme example of a manageable problem
31:45 Possibility three: Walter is the X-ray
32:00 What we do — and don't — have evidence of
32:30 Being careful not to invent the next 2008
32:45 Where pressure could actually come from
33:15 When patient money becomes less patient
33:30 Other sources of insurance funding under stress
33:45 Borrowing, credit lines, and reinsurance triggers
34:00 Who else made a promise based on that valuation?
34:15 Being fair to Delaware Life and Clear Spring
34:45 The narrower question: how much stress can the cushions absorb?
35:15 Back to the Lakers one last time
35:45 Why you sell the thing you can sell
36:00 What Chuck is and isn't ready to say
36:30 If I had subpoena power: the reporting roadmap
37:00 What open-source reporting can and can't do
37:30 One: open the boxes and show the underlying assets
37:45 Two: did the structure change the regulatory treatment?
38:15 Schedule D vs. Schedule BA — show us the math
38:30 Three: who graded the box, and on what information?
38:45 Four: why did 3% become something vastly larger?
39:00 Who made that judgment, and what changed after the subpoenas?
39:30 Five: did the Lakers money actually matter?
39:45 Six: how much stress can these insurers absorb?
40:15 What we know, and what we don't
40:30 The final test: what would make Chuck say he was too worried
40:45 Show me the marks hold up
41:15 "I'd love to make that podcast"
41:30 What this story already tells us
41:45 Coming back to Josh Kushner and the timing
42:00 No evidence of a quid pro quo
42:15 Why the political question is the smaller question
42:45 The more consequential story
43:00 The full thread: Lakers to Walter to Dodgers to private credit
43:30 What we have and haven't established
43:45 We reinforced the part of the house that burned down
44:15 Every private equity firm wanted its own insurance company
44:30 "Money always finds a way"
45:00 The failure was assuming we'd solved the behavior
45:15 Why this matters well beyond Wall Street
45:30 Our hypothetical retiree, and what she has to trust
45:45 Capitalism runs on trust, not just money
46:15 If that trust breaks, everyone finds a different villain
46:45 Where Chuck's instincts are — and what the evidence doesn't establish
47:00 What would change his mind
47:15 Why it's fitting we got here through the Lakers
47:45 Let's figure out what it is before the patient gets sick
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Chuck Todd unpacks David Crowley's astonishing photo-finish win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin — a race Crowley dropped out of, re-entered with Tony Evers' backing, and then won by roughly 3,200 votes — and argues national Democrats are far more relieved than they'll ever admit. Had Hong won, she'd have become a face of the party while being forced to spend the fall answering for past statements about defunding police, abolishing prisons, and canceling Thanksgiving rather than talking about the economy, handing Republicans an absurdly easy story to tell. Chuck credits Tony Evers for refusing to fence-sit and mounting what amounted to an emergency rescue operation, while noting Crowley isn't remotely "establishment" — he came from genuinely modest roots and ran a campaign largely defined by what he wasn't. Chuck identifies Hong's central unforced error as nationalizing her race in the closing weeks, a fundraising-driven instinct in an era where media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appeals, forgetting that the national online audience and the local electorate are not the same people. Mamdani stayed disciplined and won; Hong drifted into boutique cultural debates and lost. But Chuck cautions against reading this as a repudiation of the left: Peggy Flanagan won in Minnesota, progressives are doing better this cycle than they have in years, and the 2027 House will be younger and slightly further left. The real structural lesson is that progressives struggle in higher-turnout and open primaries, still face a persistent obstacle with African American primary voters, and — most tellingly — keep getting rejected by the working-class voters they orient their entire message toward, which is more than a messaging glitch. Abdul El-Sayed emerges a quiet winner here, now much harder to lump in with the DSA, and Chuck notes that neither AOC nor Bernie ever endorsed Hong.
The rest of the monologue is a run of results that keep pointing the same direction. Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing primaries: Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota, Darline Graham didn't clear a third of the vote and is no lock in her runoff, and Chuck's read is that Trump's grip is measurably slipping. Fourteen-term Congressman John Larson lost his primary, part of the highest incumbent-loss rate since 1970 — in a genuine wave, Chuck says, the House could see north of 25% turnover. On Iran, he echoes Chris Christie's warning that this war turns Trump into Jimmy Carter: Iran has issued a list of demands that amounts to an "F you" ransom note, is openly watching the American election calendar and timing its moves accordingly, and — just as in 1980 — the humiliation itself is the point. All of it, Chuck notes, was Trump's own choice. He closes somewhere unexpected: giving Mark Zuckerberg genuine credit. In his 6,500-word manifesto, Zuckerberg argued that the real danger of AI is the concentration of power, writing that hoping an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity has historically never ended well — and committing Meta to a review process before models go public. Chuck notes the argument is being made by a deeply self-interested party and that the important parts got buried in what was really a debate with Sam Altman, but he singles out one thing worth emulating: Meta funneling data center tax revenue back into teacher bonuses and job training. Communities hosting this infrastructure have to win too, and he hopes more tech CEOs adopt that philosophy.


Then, Ben Wikler, the former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair and author of the new book This Is the Plan joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that Democrats keep making the same category error: they keep winning change elections and then failing to deliver change, because they're trying to fix policy without first fixing the system that determines who gets to make policy. Wikler's framing is memorable and a little cheeky — you have to win the ring of power and then cast it into Mount Doom — but his point is serious. When the right wins power, it immediately restructures the system to entrench itself; Democrats win and then govern as though the rules are fixed. His plan runs through the state level, where free and fair elections are actually secured, and demands ending the filibuster and reforming the Supreme Court, including term limits for justices, because campaign finance reform is impossible without a Court willing to allow it. Wikler argues America is in the greatest period of political instability in its history, that inequality now exceeds the Gilded Age, that gerrymandering has left millions of people without a meaningful vote, and that both party bases increasingly want to fight more than they want to win — while swing and non-voters have simply given up on the system itself. He rejects the tired rebuilders-versus-renovators binary: FDR's Social Security pitch was a huge swing, incrementalism was the only path to Obamacare, and the actual art of politics is starting from values and vision and then figuring out what can pass.
The conversation gets specific about Wisconsin and about trust. Wikler pushes back on the idea that Francesca Hong is too "Madison" for a statewide race, notes she's spent years traveling and listening across the state, and calls Tom Tiffany an election denier who is genuinely beatable in a cycle where affordability is the central issue. He and Chuck work through the puzzle of why Tony Evers' calm, steady approach succeeded where Biden's didn't — Evers came out forcefully against Dobbs, and, more fundamentally, you have to convince a majority of voters that government can actually work, which means doing what you said you'd do and then relentlessly telling people you did it. Wikler points to pandemic relief as the cautionary tale: those programs dramatically improved life for lower-income voters, the child tax credit cut child poverty in half, and then it all expired and Democrats got punished for the loss rather than credited for the gain — with an extension that had bipartisan support dying anyway, because the filibuster exists largely to deprive the other side of a win. He credits Ken Martin for investing in state parties, argues Democrats don't need a 50-state strategy so much as fifty different state strategies since the coalition looks different everywhere, and concedes that Trump has been the most successful Republican of this era, spawning an army of mini-mes modeling themselves on him. And yes, Chuck asks the obvious question — why not run for Senate yourself?
Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of biggest non-presidential primary upsets, which David Crowley’s win taking the top spot. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the highly suspicious sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to Jared Kushner’s brother.

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Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:00 Unpacking David Crowley’s win over Francesca Hong in WI
04:45 Crowley got out, then back in to the race… yet still won
05:45 If Hong had won, she would have become a face of the Dem party
06:15 Hong had past statements that would have been problematic
07:15 She would have been forced to talk about Thanksgiving, not economics
08:15 Her win would have been an easy story for Republicans to tell
08:45 Abdul El-Sayed is a winner here, harder to be lumped in with DSA
10:00 National Democrats are more relieved than they will admit
11:00 Independents don’t want either party to let extremes take over
12:00 Democrats can make the distinction between themselves & socialism
13:30 The progressives didn’t blow it, Peggy Flannagan won in Minnesota
15:00 African-American primary voters remain an obstacle for progressives
16:30 Progressives gear toward working class voters, yet are rejected by them
17:30 Not winning working class voters is more than a messaging glitch
18:30 Structure of the primary has major impact on success of progressives
19:15 Progressives run into trouble in higher turnout primaries
20:30 Open primaries result in less extremist nominees
21:15 Hong’s big unforced error was campaigning nationally in final weeks
22:00 Nationalizing your race is about fundraising
22:45 Media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appearances
23:30 National online audience & local electorate aren’t the same people
24:15 Mamdani had a disciplined message & succeeded, Hong didn’t
25:00 Ideological candidates can win when the electorate agrees with them
26:00 Ideological movements forget they can sound weird to the normies
26:30 The establishment was dangerously close to screwing this up
28:15 The establishment side of the race was a chaotic mess
29:15 Tony Evers had to mount an emergency rescue operation for Crowley
30:30 David Crowley isn’t very “establishment”, came from modest roots
31:30 Tony Evers deserves credit for putting his capital behind Crowley
32:30 Notable AOC, Sanders and top progressives didn’t endorse Hong
33:45 Getting into boutique cultural debates ends up being a problem
34:30 In Michigan & Wisconsin, the campaigns that physically showed up won
36:15 If Crowley wins & El-Sayed loses, there will be a clear lesson for Dems
38:15 Tony Evers didn’t fence sit, he picked a side and it worked
40:00 Flannagan’s win dispels idea of total repudiation of progressives
42:00 Flannagan had establishment credentials while being progressive
42:30 Progressives aren’t running the table, but are doing better this cycle
43:15 The Democratic house in ‘27 will be younger & slightly further left
44:30 Crowley’s campaign was largely about what he wasn’t
46:00 There could be multiple demographic “first” Democratic governors
47:45 Could these new primary winners end up on a presidential ticket?
49:45 Progressives are doing better, but haven’t won control of the Dem party
50:45 Democrats can blunt the narrative that the socialists are taking over
51:15 Trump endorsed candidates keep losing their primaries
51:45 Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota primary
52:45 Trump endorsed Darline Graham didn’t get 1/3rd of the vote
53:15 Graham isn’t a shoo-in in the runoff
55:30 Trump’s endorsement isn’t a guaranteed win, his grip is slipping
57:00 14-term congressman John Larson loses his primary
57:45 Most incumbents have lost reelection this year since 1970
58:15 In a wave election, could see over 25% turnover of the House
59:30 Chris Christie says Iran war will turn Trump into Jimmy Carter
1:00:00 Iran is humiliating Trump, and it was all Trump’s choice
1:00:30 Iran issues list of demands, basically an “F You” ransom note
1:01:30 Iran are watching the American election calendar & acting accordingly
1:02:15 In 1980, the humiliation of Carter was the point, Iran sent a message
1:03:30 Mark Zuckerberg deserves credit for something he said
1:04:15 Zuckerberg argued that AI driven concentration of power is the danger
1:04:45 He says there’s no benevolent superintelligence held by one company
1:05:15 Committed to a review board to sign off on models before going public
1:05:45 At least the argument is being made… even if by a self-interested party
1:06:30 Revenue from Meta data centers has been paid to teachers & job training
1:07:15 Meta reinvesting in communities with data centers is the right model
1:08:00 The manifesto was a debate with Sam Altman, buried the important things
1:09:15 Hope more tech CEO’s share his philosophy. Communities have to win too
1:16:45 Ben Wikler joins The Chuck ToddCast
1:17:45 Ben’s new book is “This Is The Plan”
1:18:00 What is the plan?
1:18:30 To get political change we need, we need to change the system
1:19:15 To secure free & fair elections, need to win at the state level
1:19:45 We need an end to the filibuster and Supreme Court reform
1:20:30 There’s no one office or candidate to get us out of this mess
1:22:30 We need to win the ring of power, then cast it into Mount Doom
1:23:00 When the right wins power, they immediately change systems
1:24:00 We keep having change elections, then not getting change
1:26:15 We’re in the greatest period of political instability in American history
1:29:15 Both party bases want to fight more than want to win
1:30:15 We’re so gerrymandered, people don’t really get a vote
1:31:45 Swing/Non voters have given up on the system itself
1:36:15 Are rebuilders or renovators going to win the argument?
1:36:45 FDR’s social security pitch was a big swing
1:39:15 Incrimentalism was the only way to pass Obamacare
1:40:00 The art of politics is values/vision, then figure out what can actually pass
1:41:00 A party should be able to change laws, then face the voters
1:42:15 Need to reform the Supreme Court to reform campaign finance laws
1:43:00 Advocate for term limits for Supreme Court justices in the book
1:43:30 Inequality is now worse than it was during the Gilded Age
1:44:45 Is Francesca Hong too “Madison” of a candidate for Wisconsin gov?
1:45:30 Hong has been traveling the state & listening for years
1:46:30 Wisconsin Dem gov primary has been topsy turvy
1:47:30 Tom Tiffany is an election denier & beatable candidate
1:48:45 Affordability is the central issue this election cycle
1:51:30 Why did “calming the waters” work for Tony Evers, but not Joe Biden?
1:52:15 Evers came out very strongly against Dobbs
1:53:00 You have to convince a majority of the public that government works
1:55:00 Trust is earned by doing what you say you’ll do, then highlighting it
1:56:30 Pandemic relief had a massive positive effect on lower income voters
1:57:00 Those programs stopped, and voters punished Dems for it
1:57:45 Child tax credit cut child poverty in half, great accomplishment for Dems
1:58:15 There was bipartisan support for extended tax credit, still didn’t get done
1:58:45 Filibuster is used to deprive the other side from getting a win
2:01:15 Politicians can lay out a succession plan, but voters get their say
2:02:45 Politicians are limited in setting out a succession plan
2:04:15 How big should the Democratic tent be?
2:05:15 The coalition looks different in different states
2:06:45 Donald Trump has been the most successful GOP politician of this era
2:07:30 Every Republican politician looks to Trump as the model
2:08:00 Trump has created an army of “mini-mes”
2:09:45 What Ken Martin is doing right: Building state parties
2:12:30 Democrats don’t need a 50 state strategy, they need 50 state strategies
2:13:30 You build a local brand through your actions over time
2:14:15 When did you first think about running for office?
2:16:15 Support Tammy Baldwin’s bill to provide live Packers games
2:17:45 Most excited about Jordan Love in the upcoming season
2:19:00 Why wouldn’t you run for the senate?
2:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 biggest non-presidential primary upsets
2:22:30 #5 Joe Crowley loses to AOC
2:23:30 #4 Carol Moseley Braun
2:24:15 #3 Andrew Gillum
2:25:15 #2 Eric Cantor
2:26:15 #1 David Crawley
2:27:45 Honorable mentions
2:29:15 Ask Chuck
2:29:30 If Talarico wins close, could partisan officials mess with the outcome?
2:32:30 What makes a vice presidency successful & who makes your top 5?
2:40:15 What does it say about us that voters knew who Trump was and reelected him?
2:44:15 Can Jewish leaders like Pritzker & Ossoff campaign effectively for El-Sayed?
2:46:45 Lakers sold again, for $12B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger
2:47:45 Mark Walter bought Lakers 14 months ago for $10B, and is already out
2:48:30 This story could be nothing… but the details warrant suspicion
2:50:00 Mark Walter’s businesses are under federal investigation right now
2:51:00 Nobody has been charged or accused of anything yet
2:51:45 Why did Walter sell so fast is not a rhetorical question anymore
2:52:30 Kushner was set to buy a piece of the World Cup, until boycott threats
2:53:30 Anyone close to Trump will be assumed guilty until proven innocent
2:55:00 Maybe everything is on the up and up… but the details are shocking
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