The Chuck ToddCast

One day out, Chuck Todd reacts to Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed — a stunning turn that cost Stevens her staff and, Chuck argues, likely her future in the Democratic Party. The rift escalated over a Cenk Uygur-produced ad El-Sayed disavowed, and Chuck notes the asymmetry: Ralph Norman told South Carolina Republicans to vote their conscience and got a fraction of the coverage. His broader read is that Stevens may have turned El-Sayed into a martyr, and that the establishment forfeits any “we told you so” if he loses. The rest is a full election-night field guide: what Iowa tells you about the wave, the Cuban vote in Miami-Dade, the Rio Grande Valley, Lake Erie counties in Ohio, Wichita, and why a Phil Scott loss in Vermont means Susan Collins can’t survive Maine.
Finally, he hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit his four favorite midterm election upsets, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

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Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:00 “The Projection” election night livestream
03:15 Haley Stevens, El-Sayed, and the endorsement that torched a career
11:15 The Young Turks ad, Islamophobia, and Michigan’s early vote
18:30 South Carolina shifts, and Ralph Norman’s permission slip
20:30 Ranked choice voting as the real loser in Alaska
23:30 The NYT backlash and the risk of audience capture
30:15 Will the Obama-Trump voter come home? Will the Trump voter show up?
36:00 Florida: Miami-Dade, the Panhandle, and how Jolly beats Donalds
39:15 Georgia, Ohio’s Lake Erie counties, and Maine’s mid-coast
46:30 Michigan, Mississippi, Kansas, Texas, Iowa and Nebraska — what to watch
1:06:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Chuck’s 4 favorite midterm election upsets
1:08:30 1982 - Tom Bradley loses in California
1:12:15 1994 - Mario Cuomo loses reelection for his 4th term to George Pataki
1:16:00 1998 - Jesse Ventura wins Minnesota governor’s race
1:20:30 1998 - “The impeachment election”
1:26:30 Ask Chuck
1:26:45 What long term price will JD Vance pay for supporting Ramaswamy ad?
1:29:45 How would history be different if Al Gore won in 2000?
1:34:15 Do political yard signs actually accomplish anything?
1:37:00 Jamie Raskin’s potential for role as Speaker of the House?
1:40:30 Are senior military leaders prepared for a constitutional crisis?
1:43:00 Thoughts on Trump covering diversity mural before a rally?
1:49:00 Will all the swing states go one way in 2026 like they did in 2024?
1:52:15 What does GOP ceding airwaves in DC mean?
1:55:00 College football recap
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Reid Wilson — founder of Pluribus News and GM of enterprise news at State Affairs — joins the Chuck ToddCast for the midterm story nobody in Washington covers: 88 state chambers and roughly 6,000 legislative seats on the ballot. His read is that Republicans are in line for a genuinely bad night at the state level. Democrats need only two seats in each Arizona chamber to flip the legislature, Wisconsin is in play despite gerrymandering, a Gina Hinojosa win likely brings the Texas House with it, and Republicans could lose supermajorities in Ohio, Kansas and Florida. Wilson flags affordability as the dominant issue with data centers climbing fast — and says if Greg Abbott loses, data centers are why. He also argues Rob Sand wins Iowa going away, that Ramaswamy’s money won’t save him, and that if anti-Trump Republican Phil Scott loses in Vermont, it tells you exactly how toxic the party brand has become.
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:
00:00 Reid Wilson joins The Chuck ToddCast
01:45 What State Affairs covers, and why 88 chambers matter
07:00 How the state map collapsed for Democrats — and where it’s turning back
13:15 Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and the chambers in play
18:15 Rob Sand, supermajorities at risk, and the issues driving it
21:30 Affordability, data centers, and who’s writing the checks
26:00 Prediction markets running the sportsbook playbook
29:45 The voucher backlash and what happened in Iowa
32:30 A more factionalized GOP than people realize
35:30 The shock results that would signal a huge wave
39:30 Oregon, Minnesota, Vermont, and Nevada’s undecideds
50:30 Can Democrats win statewide in Florida?
54:30 Ballot initiatives to watch — abortion, trans sports, and major tax fights
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The New York Times reported Wednesday that operatives tied to Mary Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC actively recruited the second Dan Sullivan onto Alaska’s Senate ballot — a Democratic consultant reportedly flew to a remote village to convince a retired teacher to run. Peltola’s campaign has denied involvement; a former campaign manager told the Times Peltola wasn’t personally involved but was “definitely aware.” Chuck Todd calls it a genuine October surprise, though not a unique tactic — both parties have boosted spoiler candidates for decades — and notes Democrats get held to a higher standard precisely because voters assume Trump will cheat. With ranked-choice voting, he’s skeptical it moves the race much. He’s far less forgiving on Ohio, where the Daily Mail tracked down Amy Acton’s stepfather and his daughter, meaning everyone that man traumatized has now been forced to relive it. Then: what Chuck’s watching on election night, starting with Indiana and Kentucky at poll close and ending with Iowa as the bellwether for everything.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
03:30 The NYT report on the second Dan Sullivan
05:30 Both parties do this — and why Democrats get judged differently
11:00 Does it actually change the Alaska race?
15:45 The Acton ad’s collateral damage, and the price Ramaswamy will pay
22:00 Political mercenaries, Roger Marshall, and selective outrage
25:00 Election night livestream details
28:15 Why Iowa is the bellwether for the entire midterm
35:00 The Iowa Senate race as the purest test of the environment
39:00 First tea leaves: IN-05, IN-01 and KY-06
44:45 Virginia’s predictive power and the VA-05 tsunami signal
49:30 Florida timing, Georgia after midnight, and the likely Texas split
55:30 Probability vs. possibility — and the decline of exit polling
1:08:30 Ask Chuck
1:09:45 Any connection between local sports teams’ success and election results?
1:14:30 If Dems sweep both chambers, worth bringing the Lankford border bill up for a vote?
1:17:30 How can average person distinguish credible polls from bad ones?
1:28:15 How do you justify Miami’s #1 ranking when they haven’t beaten a ranked team?
1:33:00 When Trump's presidency is done, who’s tell-all are you most looking forward to?
1:37:00 College football preview
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The New York Times reported Wednesday that operatives tied to Mary Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC actively recruited the second Dan Sullivan onto Alaska’s Senate ballot — a Democratic consultant reportedly flew to a remote village to convince a retired teacher to run. Peltola’s campaign has denied involvement; a former campaign manager told the Times Peltola wasn’t personally involved but was “definitely aware.” Chuck Todd calls it a genuine October surprise, though not a unique tactic — both parties have boosted spoiler candidates for decades — and notes Democrats get held to a higher standard precisely because voters assume Trump will cheat. With ranked-choice voting, he’s skeptical it moves the race much. He’s far less forgiving on Ohio, where the Daily Mail tracked down Amy Acton’s stepfather and his daughter, meaning everyone that man traumatized has now been forced to relive it. Then: what Chuck’s watching on election night, starting with Indiana and Kentucky at poll close and ending with Iowa as the bellwether for everything.
Then, Reid Wilson — founder of Pluribus News and GM of enterprise news at State Affairs — joins the Chuck ToddCast for the midterm story nobody in Washington covers: 88 state chambers and roughly 6,000 legislative seats on the ballot. His read is that Republicans are in line for a genuinely bad night at the state level. Democrats need only two seats in each Arizona chamber to flip the legislature, Wisconsin is in play despite gerrymandering, a Gina Hinojosa win likely brings the Texas House with it, and Republicans could lose supermajorities in Ohio, Kansas and Florida. Wilson flags affordability as the dominant issue with data centers climbing fast — and says if Greg Abbott loses, data centers are why. He also argues Rob Sand wins Iowa going away, that Ramaswamy’s money won’t save him, and that if anti-Trump Republican Phil Scott loses in Vermont, it tells you exactly how toxic the party brand has become.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
03:30 The NYT report on the second Dan Sullivan
05:30 Both parties do this — and why Democrats get judged differently
11:00 Does it actually change the Alaska race?
15:45 The Acton ad’s collateral damage, and the price Ramaswamy will pay
22:00 Political mercenaries, Roger Marshall, and selective outrage
25:00 Election night livestream details
28:15 Why Iowa is the bellwether for the entire midterm
35:00 The Iowa Senate race as the purest test of the environment
39:00 First tea leaves: IN-05, IN-01 and KY-06
44:45 Virginia’s predictive power and the VA-05 tsunami signal
49:30 Florida timing, Georgia after midnight, and the likely Texas split
55:30 Probability vs. possibility — and the decline of exit polling
1:10:30 Reid Wilson joins The Chuck ToddCast
1:12:15 What State Affairs covers, and why 88 chambers matter
1:17:30 How the state map collapsed for Democrats — and where it’s turning back
1:23:45 Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and the chambers in play
1:28:45 Rob Sand, supermajorities at risk, and the issues driving it
1:32:00 Affordability, data centers, and who’s writing the checks
1:36:30 Prediction markets running the sportsbook playbook
1:40:15 The voucher backlash and what happened in Iowa
1:43:00 A more factionalized GOP than people realize
1:46:00 The shock results that would signal a huge wave
1:50:00 Oregon, Minnesota, Vermont, and Nevada’s undecideds
2:01:00 Can Democrats win statewide in Florida?
2:05:00 Ballot initiatives to watch — abortion, trans sports, and major tax fights
2:16:45 Ask Chuck
2:18:00 Any connection between local sports teams’ success and election results?
2:22:45 If Dems sweep both chambers, worth bringing the Lankford border bill up for a vote?
2:25:45 How can average person distinguish credible polls from bad ones?
2:36:30 How do you justify Miami’s #1 ranking when they haven’t beaten a ranked team?
2:41:15 When Trump's presidency is done, who’s tell-all are you most looking forward to?
2:45:15 College football preview
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Seth Bodnar — Green Beret, former GE executive, and former University of Montana president now running for Senate as an independent — joins the Chuck ToddCast a week out. He’s assembled a genuinely strange coalition: Pete Buttigieg endorsed him over the Democratic nominee, and both sides of Montana’s 1992 governor’s race, Republican Marc Racicot and Democrat Dorothy Bradley, are backing him. Bodnar’s military background drives his sharpest material — he argues Hegseth politicizing the military would have dire consequences, and that senior officers are now resigning rather than carry out unlawful orders, facing a brutal choice between staying to mitigate harm or leaving in protest. He says he won’t organize with either party, argues half of Senate votes are procedural and an independent can force real debate, and makes the case that one-party dominance in any state is unhealthy. Plus affordability, universal coverage, and whether Montana moves up to FBS.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:
00:00 Seth Bodnar joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:30 Regrets about running as an independent, and endorsements from both sides
04:30 Hegseth, politicizing the military, and officers resigning over unlawful orders
08:45 Should Congress subpoena senior military leaders?
12:15 What can actually be done on affordability
14:45 Corporate concentration, antitrust, and the housing crunch
19:45 Would either party talk him into caucusing?
24:30 Rural America, the Bankhead question, and where the polls stand
32:00 Reagan, Putin, and the danger of unchecked one-party rule
34:45 Universal coverage and what Medicaid means in Montana
38:30 Education, AI literacy, and critical thinking
45:30 FBS, collective bargaining, and the future of college football
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.