The Chuck ToddCast

Sports business reporter John Ourand — who shares an origin story with Chuck Todd at Sports Business Daily — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a deep dive into the money reshaping professional and college sports. Ourand walks through the sale of the Seattle Seahawks as a signal that the era of family-owned NFL franchises is ending, explaining how team valuations have roughly doubled in just three years thanks to new tax advantages and the simple fact that NFL ownership has become the ultimate status club for the ultra-wealthy. He and Chuck dig into whether these eye-popping valuations constitute a bubble — the NFL alone signed $110 billion in media deals over two years — and whether the sports media "middle class" could be facing a real reckoning even as streamers thrive with smaller game packages. Ourand offers a fascinating look at how leagues are navigating their relationship with the networks and production companies that broadcast them (the NFL is deliberately careful not to hurt the legacy networks it depends on), and defends the enduring value of investigative sports journalism, pointing to Pablo Torre's Clippers reporting as a reminder that nobody, including executives at ESPN, wants to be remembered as the person who killed real journalism at the network.
The conversation turns to how sports and politics are increasingly colliding. Ourand contrasts Michael Jordan's studied political neutrality with the modern reality of athletes and leagues getting pulled into culture war fights whether they want to or not, noting the UFC fight at the White House pulled huge ratings and that Trump's involvement in overturning a disputed red card call may have actually boosted viewership. He praises Caitlin Clark for navigating the culture wars more gracefully than almost anyone in sports today, draws a compelling parallel between Clark and Larry Bird, and argues the WNBA under commissioner Kathy Engelbert isn't doing nearly enough to capitalize on the attention Clark has generated — in part because leagues remain skittish about race and sexuality debates they'd rather avoid entirely. Ourand closes with a detailed look at the messy economics of college sports, explaining how the biggest programs are effectively subsidizing smaller ones, why a real collective bargaining structure may eventually be inevitable, and why the sport's true power brokers could soon demand a much larger share of the revenue pie for themselves.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 John Ourand joins the Chuck ToddCast
02:00 Chuck & John’s shared origins at Sports Business Daily
04:30 Who are the new owners of the Seattle Seahawks?
05:15 We are ending the era of the family owned teams
06:15 How did NFL teams double in value in 3 years?
07:15 NFL ownership is a club rich people want to be in
08:00 There are new tax advantages to owning franchises
10:15 Are sports franchise valuations a bubble that could burst?
12:00 The NFL signed $110B in deals in 2 years
12:30 The middle class of sports rights might face a reckoning soon
13:00 The PGA Tour may have cause for concern for media rights
15:30 Streamers are doing just fine with limited packages of games
16:00 If Amazon gave up their rights, the stock price probably goes up
17:45 The NFL conscious of not hurting the business of legacy networks
19:45 Will the leagues move broadcast production in-house?
22:00 Leagues more likely to partner with large production companies
24:30 There’s still a market for investigative sports journalists
27:30 Nobody wants to be the executive that kills journalism at ESPN
28:15 Reporters at ESPN are aware of where the third rail is
29:15 Pablo Torre’s scoop on the Clippers was a journalist’s dream
31:30 How are leagues/players interacting with politics?
32:45 Michael Jordan stayed out of the political fray
34:45 The UFC fight at the White House had huge ratings
35:15 Trump’s involvement in overturning red card possibly boosted ratings
37:30 Caitlin Clark has been great at avoiding be pulled into the culture wars
38:15 Parallels between Larry Bird & Caitlin Clark
40:30 The WNBA isn’t doing enough to capitalize on Clark’s popularity
42:45 Leagues are afraid of race & sexuality debates
43:30 Is Kathy Engelbert the right commissioner for the WNBA?
46:45 How would collective bargaining be organized in college sports?
50:00 The biggest college programs are subsidizing the smaller ones
52:30 Could big programs demand a bigger share of the revenue?
57:45 Where you can find John’s work
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a masterclass on the single most underappreciated force in presidential politics: the primary calendar, which he argues reveals exactly what kind of nominee a party actually wants long before a single vote is cast. He explains that the Democratic decision to put South Carolina first is by design a test of Black support and viability in the South — and one that's deliberately engineered to hurt progressives, who have consistently gotten thumped in South Carolina primaries. He believes that Democrats have badly underinvested in South Carolina and Mississippi, meaning a little TLC could plausibly turn South Carolina into a genuine swing state. The calendar's practical effect, he argues, is that it sets up well for Wes Moore (if he runs) and is nearly as favorable for Pete Buttigieg, while raising the stakes for Kamala Harris to the point that if she doesn't win South Carolina, she's essentially finished. He is sharp on the flaws of the rest of the early window — Nevada isn't the test Democrats claim because the culinary union shapes everything and Arizona would better measure the Latino vote, Michigan is theoretically ideal but is getting torn apart over Israel in ways that could hurt Democrats in a general, and Virginia (now the last stop before Super Tuesday) reliably serves as a bulwark for moderates because it's a center-left rather than hard-left blue state — and he lays out what the ideal calendar would look like for progressives and for MAGA respectively. He's blunt that Ken Martin's leadership of the DNC has been a major problem, questioning whether Democrats really want him refereeing the nomination fight when the party's money troubles are a reflection on Martin himself. He then turns to Trump backing down on Iran yet again — halting strikes less than 12 hours after issuing fresh threats — calling the entire Iran adventure easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century, especially now that an administration once committed to non-proliferation appears to be helping the Saudis with nuclear technology. He notes Democrats nominated Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner, making the Maine Senate seat winnable again even as Trump has made the races in both Maine and Michigan harder, and closes with a run of telling contrasts: the White House openly bragging that it added tariffs to help big tech, data centers emerging as the top issue for voters in many states, Trump calling LeBron James a racist from the Oval Office while Obama quietly reached out to offer Caitlin Clark advice and comfort — a perfect encapsulation, He argues, of one leader who wants to divide and another trying to turn the temperature down.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the ratification of the 14th amendment at a time when the idea of birthright citizenship is being called into question, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
02:30 A primary calendar shows the type of nominee a party wants
03:15 The calendar dictates where candidates spend their time
04:15 The first state on the calendar is massively important
05:00 The Democratic nominee will have to survive South Carolina
05:30 Iowa has gone first for decades
07:15 First in the calendar matters more than anything else
07:45 South Carolina is a test for black support & viability in the south
08:30 South Carolina going first is designed to hurt the viability of progressives
09:15 Going first created robust state parties in Iowa & New Hampshire
10:00 Democrats have underinvested in South Carolina & Mississippi
13:15 Strong state organizations create future candidates & elected reps
14:45 With more TLC, Democrats should be able to make SC a swing state
15:45 South Carolina will determine which candidates are viable
17:15 Progressives have gotten thumped in SC primaries
18:15 Calendar is designed to make life harder for progressives
19:45 The calendar doesn’t always produce the intended candidate
22:00 20% in a crowded field could be enough to win or take 2nd
24:00 If Kamala Harris doesn’t win South Carolina she’s basically out
24:45 On paper, this is a huge boost for Wes Moore if he runs
26:00 Whoever is in 1st place this far out is a measurement of name ID
26:30 New Hampshire Dems are upset about not being first
28:30 Nevada is not the test that Democrats claim it is
29:00 The culinary union shapes the entire state’s politics in Nevada
30:00 The DNC wanted states that could produce same-night results
31:30 Nevada isn’t a good test of the latino vote, Arizona would be better
32:45 In theory, Michigan is a good state to test, but it’s getting divided over Israel
33:30 Israel could get so divisive it could hurt Dems in a general election
34:15 Virginia is now the last state of the early window before Super Tuesday
34:45 Virginia tends to serve as a bulwark for the moderate candidates
36:00 Virginia is a blue state, but it’s a center-left state
37:15 More than any candidate, the table is set for Wes Moore
37:45 The calendar is also good for Pete Buttigieg
39:15 What the best primary calendar would look like for progressives
41:00 What the best MAGA primary calendar would look like
44:00 The calendar dictates who candidates must become during campaign
45:45 Super Tuesday was created to balance out the early base voters
47:30 Legislature control also dictated the creation of this Dem primary calendar
49:15 Ken Martin’s leadership at the DNC has been major problem
50:00 Do Dems want Martin serving as the referee for the nomination fight?
50:45 Martin is clearly not in the right headspace to lead the DNC
51:45 The DNC’s money problems are a reflection on Martin, not the party
52:45 Trump bloviated & issued more threats to Iran & he’s backing down again
53:45 Less than 12 hours after making threats, he halted strikes
54:45 Trump is completely out of ideas on Iran
55:45 Iran is easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century
56:30 For years the goal was non-proliferation, now we’re helping the Saudis?
58:15 If we’re helping Saudis with nuke technology, who are we to tell others no?
59:00 Trump’s personal financial gain may have accelerated this
59:30 Dems nominate Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner
1:00:00 Maine senate is once again a very winnable race for Democrats
1:01:15 Trump has made the races in Michigan and Maine much harder
1:02:15 Trump has no idea what’s going on in American politics, can’t read a room
1:03:00 White House bragged that they added tariffs to help big tech
1:04:15 Data centers are the biggest issue for voters in many states
1:05:45 Trump calls LeBron James a racist at oval office press conference
1:06:45 Obama reached out to give Caitlin Clark advice & words of comfort
1:08:00 Trump showed he wants to divide, Obama tried to turn temperature down
1:09:15 Mrs. Todd’s suggestion for changing the White House Correspondents’ Dinner
1:16:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 28th, 1968
1:16:30 This was the day William Seward certified the 14th Amendment
1:17:15 Some states tried to rescind their certification
1:17:45 Congress declared the amendment ratified
1:18:30 “Who gets to be an American?” was a question the founders left open
1:19:15 Birthright citizenship was an open question at the time
1:19:45 Dred Scott was one of the worst SCOTUS decisions of all time
1:20:30 States tried to reassemble the structures of slavery after the war
1:21:00 Abolishing slavery and securing freedom were two different things
1:21:45 Citizenship couldn’t rest on a law, it had to be in the constitution
1:22:30 Trump vs. Barbara ended with SCOTUS upholding birthright citizenship
1:23:30 The case of Won Kim Ark became foundation of this summer’s ruling
1:24:30 Congress addressed Native American citizenship in 1924 via statute
1:26:30 Someone from anywhere could become an American
1:27:15 Every generation has found new ways to fall short of the American promise
1:28:15 Certification of the 14th amendment is what makes America different
1:29:00 Ask Chuck
1:29:15 Have you seen anything to suggest Trump has a religious faith?
1:32:30 Goal of NDAA integrating more between the U.S. & Israeli militaries?
1:37:30 If a president were convicted and removed via impeachment… What happens next?
1:41:00 Recommendations for political books?
1:46:00 Has the kind of voter fraud cited by Republicans ever changed an outcome?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a masterclass on the single most underappreciated force in presidential politics: the primary calendar, which he argues reveals exactly what kind of nominee a party actually wants long before a single vote is cast. He explains that the Democratic decision to put South Carolina first is by design a test of Black support and viability in the South — and one that's deliberately engineered to hurt progressives, who have consistently gotten thumped in South Carolina primaries. He believes that Democrats have badly underinvested in South Carolina and Mississippi, meaning a little TLC could plausibly turn South Carolina into a genuine swing state. The calendar's practical effect, he argues, is that it sets up well for Wes Moore (if he runs) and is nearly as favorable for Pete Buttigieg, while raising the stakes for Kamala Harris to the point that if she doesn't win South Carolina, she's essentially finished. He is sharp on the flaws of the rest of the early window — Nevada isn't the test Democrats claim because the culinary union shapes everything and Arizona would better measure the Latino vote, Michigan is theoretically ideal but is getting torn apart over Israel in ways that could hurt Democrats in a general, and Virginia (now the last stop before Super Tuesday) reliably serves as a bulwark for moderates because it's a center-left rather than hard-left blue state — and he lays out what the ideal calendar would look like for progressives and for MAGA respectively. He's blunt that Ken Martin's leadership of the DNC has been a major problem, questioning whether Democrats really want him refereeing the nomination fight when the party's money troubles are a reflection on Martin himself. He then turns to Trump backing down on Iran yet again — halting strikes less than 12 hours after issuing fresh threats — calling the entire Iran adventure easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century, especially now that an administration once committed to non-proliferation appears to be helping the Saudis with nuclear technology. He notes Democrats nominated Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner, making the Maine Senate seat winnable again even as Trump has made the races in both Maine and Michigan harder, and closes with a run of telling contrasts: the White House openly bragging that it added tariffs to help big tech, data centers emerging as the top issue for voters in many states, Trump calling LeBron James a racist from the Oval Office while Obama quietly reached out to offer Caitlin Clark advice and comfort — a perfect encapsulation, He argues, of one leader who wants to divide and another trying to turn the temperature down.
Then, sports business reporter John Ourand — who shares an origin story with Chuck Todd at Sports Business Daily — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a deep dive into the money reshaping professional and college sports. Ourand walks through the sale of the Seattle Seahawks as a signal that the era of family-owned NFL franchises is ending, explaining how team valuations have roughly doubled in just three years thanks to new tax advantages and the simple fact that NFL ownership has become the ultimate status club for the ultra-wealthy. He and Chuck dig into whether these eye-popping valuations constitute a bubble — the NFL alone signed $110 billion in media deals over two years — and whether the sports media "middle class" could be facing a real reckoning even as streamers thrive with smaller game packages. Ourand offers a fascinating look at how leagues are navigating their relationship with the networks and production companies that broadcast them (the NFL is deliberately careful not to hurt the legacy networks it depends on), and defends the enduring value of investigative sports journalism, pointing to Pablo Torre's Clippers reporting as a reminder that nobody, including executives at ESPN, wants to be remembered as the person who killed real journalism at the network.
The conversation turns to how sports and politics are increasingly colliding. Ourand contrasts Michael Jordan's studied political neutrality with the modern reality of athletes and leagues getting pulled into culture war fights whether they want to or not, noting the UFC fight at the White House pulled huge ratings and that Trump's involvement in overturning a disputed red card call may have actually boosted viewership. He praises Caitlin Clark for navigating the culture wars more gracefully than almost anyone in sports today, draws a compelling parallel between Clark and Larry Bird, and argues the WNBA under commissioner Kathy Engelbert isn't doing nearly enough to capitalize on the attention Clark has generated — in part because leagues remain skittish about race and sexuality debates they'd rather avoid entirely. Ourand closes with a detailed look at the messy economics of college sports, explaining how the biggest programs are effectively subsidizing smaller ones, why a real collective bargaining structure may eventually be inevitable, and why the sport's true power brokers could soon demand a much larger share of the revenue pie for themselves.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the ratification of the 14th amendment at a time when the idea of birthright citizenship is being called into question, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
02:30 A primary calendar shows the type of nominee a party wants
03:15 The calendar dictates where candidates spend their time
04:15 The first state on the calendar is massively important
05:00 The Democratic nominee will have to survive South Carolina
05:30 Iowa has gone first for decades
07:15 First in the calendar matters more than anything else
07:45 South Carolina is a test for black support & viability in the south
08:30 South Carolina going first is designed to hurt the viability of progressives
09:15 Going first created robust state parties in Iowa & New Hampshire
10:00 Democrats have underinvested in South Carolina & Mississippi
13:15 Strong state organizations create future candidates & elected reps
14:45 With more TLC, Democrats should be able to make SC a swing state
15:45 South Carolina will determine which candidates are viable
17:15 Progressives have gotten thumped in SC primaries
18:15 Calendar is designed to make life harder for progressives
19:45 The calendar doesn’t always produce the intended candidate
22:00 20% in a crowded field could be enough to win or take 2nd
24:00 If Kamala Harris doesn’t win South Carolina she’s basically out
24:45 On paper, this is a huge boost for Wes Moore if he runs
26:00 Whoever is in 1st place this far out is a measurement of name ID
26:30 New Hampshire Dems are upset about not being first
28:30 Nevada is not the test that Democrats claim it is
29:00 The culinary union shapes the entire state’s politics in Nevada
30:00 The DNC wanted states that could produce same-night results
31:30 Nevada isn’t a good test of the latino vote, Arizona would be better
32:45 In theory, Michigan is a good state to test, but it’s getting divided over Israel
33:30 Israel could get so divisive it could hurt Dems in a general election
34:15 Virginia is now the last state of the early window before Super Tuesday
34:45 Virginia tends to serve as a bulwark for the moderate candidates
36:00 Virginia is a blue state, but it’s a center-left state
37:15 More than any candidate, the table is set for Wes Moore
37:45 The calendar is also good for Pete Buttigieg
39:15 What the best primary calendar would look like for progressives
41:00 What the best MAGA primary calendar would look like
44:00 The calendar dictates who candidates must become during campaign
45:45 Super Tuesday was created to balance out the early base voters
47:30 Legislature control also dictated the creation of this Dem primary calendar
49:15 Ken Martin’s leadership at the DNC has been major problem
50:00 Do Dems want Martin serving as the referee for the nomination fight?
50:45 Martin is clearly not in the right headspace to lead the DNC
51:45 The DNC’s money problems are a reflection on Martin, not the party
52:45 Trump bloviated & issued more threats to Iran & he’s backing down again
53:45 Less than 12 hours after making threats, he halted strikes
54:45 Trump is completely out of ideas on Iran
55:45 Iran is easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century
56:30 For years the goal was non-proliferation, now we’re helping the Saudis?
58:15 If we’re helping Saudis with nuke technology, who are we to tell others no?
59:00 Trump’s personal financial gain may have accelerated this
59:30 Dems nominate Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner
1:00:00 Maine senate is once again a very winnable race for Democrats
1:01:15 Trump has made the races in Michigan and Maine much harder
1:02:15 Trump has no idea what’s going on in American politics, can’t read a room
1:03:00 White House bragged that they added tariffs to help big tech
1:04:15 Data centers are the biggest issue for voters in many states
1:05:45 Trump calls LeBron James a racist at oval office press conference
1:06:45 Obama reached out to give Caitlin Clark advice & words of comfort
1:08:00 Trump showed he wants to divide, Obama tried to turn temperature down
1:09:15 Mrs. Todd’s suggestion for changing the White House Correspondents’ Dinner
1:17:45 John Ourand joins the Chuck ToddCast
1:19:45 Chuck & John’s shared origins at Sports Business Daily
1:22:15 Who are the new owners of the Seattle Seahawks?
1:23:00 We are ending the era of the family owned teams
1:24:00 How did NFL teams double in value in 3 years?
1:25:00 NFL ownership is a club rich people want to be in
1:25:45 There are new tax advantages to owning franchises
1:28:00 Are sports franchise valuations a bubble that could burst?
1:29:45 The NFL signed $110B in deals in 2 years
1:30:15 The middle class of sports rights might face a reckoning soon
1:30:45 The PGA Tour may have cause for concern for media rights
1:33:15 Streamers are doing just fine with limited packages of games
1:33:45 If Amazon gave up their rights, the stock price probably goes up
1:35:30 The NFL conscious of not hurting the business of legacy networks
1:37:30 Will the leagues move broadcast production in-house?
1:39:45 Leagues more likely to partner with large production companies
1:42:15 There’s still a market for investigative sports journalists
1:45:15 Nobody wants to be the executive that kills journalism at ESPN
1:46:00 Reporters at ESPN are aware of where the third rail is
1:47:00 Pablo Torre’s scoop on the Clippers was a journalist’s dream
1:49:15 How are leagues/players interacting with politics?
1:50:30 Michael Jordan stayed out of the political fray
1:52:30 The UFC fight at the White House had huge ratings
1:53:00 Trump’s involvement in overturning red card possibly boosted ratings
1:55:15 Caitlin Clark has been great at avoiding be pulled into the culture wars
1:56:00 Parallels between Larry Bird & Caitlin Clark
1:58:15 The WNBA isn’t doing enough to capitalize on Clark’s popularity
2:00:30 Leagues are afraid of race & sexuality debates
2:01:15 Is Kathy Engelbert the right commissioner for the WNBA?
2:04:30 How would collective bargaining be organized in college sports?
2:07:45 The biggest college programs are subsidizing the smaller ones
2:10:15 Could big programs demand a bigger share of the revenue?
2:15:30 Where you can find John’s work
2:17:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 28th, 1968
2:17:30 This was the day William Seward certified the 14th Amendment
2:18:15 Some states tried to rescind their certification
2:18:45 Congress declared the amendment ratified
2:19:30 “Who gets to be an American?” was a question the founders left open
2:20:15 Birthright citizenship was an open question at the time
2:20:45 Dred Scott was one of the worst SCOTUS decisions of all time
2:21:30 States tried to reassemble the structures of slavery after the war
2:22:00 Abolishing slavery and securing freedom were two different things
2:22:45 Citizenship couldn’t rest on a law, it had to be in the constitution
2:23:30 Trump vs. Barbara ended with SCOTUS upholding birthright citizenship
2:24:30 The case of Won Kim Ark became foundation of this summer’s ruling
2:25:30 Congress addressed Native American citizenship in 1924 via statute
2:27:30 Someone from anywhere could become an American
2:28:15 Every generation has found new ways to fall short of the American promise
2:29:15 Certification of the 14th amendment is what makes America different
2:30:00 Ask Chuck
2:30:15 Have you seen anything to suggest Trump has a religious faith?
2:33:30 Goal of NDAA integrating more between the U.S. & Israeli militaries?
2:38:30 If a president were convicted and removed via impeachment… What happens next?
2:42:00 Recommendations for political books?
2:47:00 Has the kind of voter fraud cited by Republicans ever changed an outcome?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process.
Then, Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook, argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court.
The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose.
Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections
06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months
07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day
08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day
09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans
10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House
11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans
12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats
14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map
14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate
16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate
17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle
18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago
18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year
19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas
21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats
21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?
22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat
24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against
26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable
27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent
29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not
30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war
31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval
32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party
34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance
35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014
36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans
37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles
37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval
38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers
39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms
40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it
42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports
43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten
44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does
46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives
46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools
47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement
48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this
49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down
50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges
51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed
53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation
53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it
54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players
55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill
57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere
58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut
59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025
59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak
1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK
1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price
1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation
1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal
1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi
1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy
1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC
1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far
1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?
1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder
1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries
1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club
1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate
1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries
01:14:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:15:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems
01:16:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration
01:17:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed
01:19:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late
01:20:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long
01:20:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past
01:21:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him
01:22:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation
01:23:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory
01:25:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition
01:27:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism
01:29:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism
01:30:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden
01:31:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse
01:32:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority
01:35:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people
01:36:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics?
01:36:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues
01:38:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power
01:39:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy
01:41:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them
01:41:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America
01:43:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax
01:44:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year
01:44:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional
01:45:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea
01:47:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility
01:49:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better
01:51:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump
01:52:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left
01:53:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states
01:54:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable
01:56:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue
01:57:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states
01:59:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same
02:00:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24
02:01:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats
02:03:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027?
02:03:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living
02:04:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated
02:05:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much
02:06:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable
02:09:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose
02:10:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating?
02:11:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine
02:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties
02:14:00 #5 Oregon
02:15:00 #4 Ohio
02:16:15 #3 Wisconsin
02:18:15 #2 Kansas
02:19:00 #1 Iowa
02:20:00 Ask Chuck
02:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair
02:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?
02:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?
02:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?
02:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process.
Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
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Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections
06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months
07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day
08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day
09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans
10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House
11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans
12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats
14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map
14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate
16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate
17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle
18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago
18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year
19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas
21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats
21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?
22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat
24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against
26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable
27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent
29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not
30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war
31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval
32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party
34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance
35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014
36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans
37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles
37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval
38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers
39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms
40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it
42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports
43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten
44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does
46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives
46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools
47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement
48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this
49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down
50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges
51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed
53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation
53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it
54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players
55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill
57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere
58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut
59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025
59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak
1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK
1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price
1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation
1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal
1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi
1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy
1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC
1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far
1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?
1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder
1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries
1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club
1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate
1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries
01:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties
01:14:00 #5 Oregon
01:15:00 #4 Ohio
01:16:15 #3 Wisconsin
01:18:15 #2 Kansas
01:19:00 #1 Iowa
01:20:00 Ask Chuck
01:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair
01:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?
01:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?
01:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?
01:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.