Allied Scale: Rush Doshi on US-China Net Assessment
Rush Doshi (CFR, Biden NSC, author of the excellent The Long Game) and I run through the US-China tale of the tape. The future of America's relationship with its allies may be the key hinge variable for whether this century turns out to be China's to define. Do give this one a listen. Especially if you're JD Vance!
See Rush's Foreign Affairs article with Kurt Campbell here: https://archive.is/ZSTKP
Some Japanese outtro music to give the allies some love:
Karenai by Bonbero: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFJcIOMsOaU&ab_channel=Bonbero
What's Popping by JP THE WAVY and friends: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1LOXU_hBNo&ab_channel=JPTHEWAVY
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1:13:33
Chips: Liberated? Trump’s Semis Tariff Gambit
Bill Reinsch of CSIS and the Trade Guys podcast with Jay Goldberg of Digits and Dollars and the Circuit podcast join to dicuss Trump's tariff impact on semis on another CSIS-ChinaTalk Chip Chat!
Bill lays out the four clashing instincts driving policy in MAGA 2.0: revenge for decades of perceived slights, a bargaining bluff to coerce concessions, a fast‑cash revenue grab, and a fantasy of instant on‑shore fab construction.
Jay walks through the on‑the‑ground fallout: chip designers worrying about losing China sales, GPU‑specific duties warping supply chains, and a loophole that lets boards assembled in Mexico skate by.
We explore how blanket tariffs could accelerate China’s ascent in analog and trailing‑edge chips, undermine Biden‑era “ally‑first” export‑control diplomacy, and leave Commerce’s BIS badly under‑resourced to enforce the rules.
We also get into whether allies will sign up for Washington’s crusade after being slapped themselves, and whether Nvidia, Intel, and Tesla are “too important to punish.”
Outtro Music: Well Get It, Tommy Dorsey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgiHzCiB5Aw
Bible‑Verse Sign‑off “Plans fail for lack of counsel, but with many advisers they succeed.” — Proverbs 15:22
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50:23
Breaking Huawei + Tariffs Done Right with SemiAnalysis and Asianometry
Dylan Patel is a man on a mission. We get into how:
Huawei is giving NVIDIA a run for their money
What USG needs to do about it
What smart semiconductor tariff policy would look like
o3
Outtro Music, a little texas country for you all:
Ernest Tubb, Walking the Floor Over You https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQIRRReZIls
Hank Thompson, Wild Side of Life https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPvARPfquPc
And a completely wild post-WWII song I did not feel comfortable putting on the feed but worth a listen for the wtf factor: Ernest Tubb, Filipino Baby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WXnoCyKGw8&pp=0gcJCdgAo7VqN5tD
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34:32
Breaking Beijing: Military Competition with Tony Stark
Does America still have what it takes to stand up to China? Does short-term military readiness trade off with long-term strategy? What does the US need to do today to stay competitive for the rest of the century?
“Tony Stark” is the author of Breaking Beijing, a Substack examining the military dimensions of US-China competition. Tony’s Substack goes deep on subjects you didn’t know you needed to understand, like Arctic policy, and takes a refreshing step back to look at great power competition holistically. Tony is also the author of Ex Supra, a sci-fi thriller about a near-future US-China war.
Today, we discuss…
What it will take to win the 21st century, and what America needs to prioritize in the short, medium, and long term,
Why investing in education, basic science research, and foreign aid pay dividends in military readiness,
Why Washington is short on coherent China strategy,
Taiwan’s impact on global nonproliferation efforts,
How AI could change warfare, even if AGI can’t be considered a “wonder weapon.”
Outro music: Cmon - Fred Again (YouTube link)
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1:02:11
GreatDepressionTalk with SemiAnalysis and Asianometry
Doug gives his "we're heading for the end of the dollar-based world order" take.
Dylan has no idea what he's talking about when it comes to macro or politics.
We fail to arrive at the 2011 Obama-Boehner deal.
I had a fever during the recording so don't really talk.
1930s-energy outtro music:
Victoria Spivey, Detroit Moan, 1936 https://open.spotify.com/track/7L3GgSuguDJXi1msw6Pe7W?si=ab99d3eea65647eb
Judy Garland, Over the Rainbow, 1938 https://open.spotify.com/track/3wAIcORchxdSkWv6v5AkaU?si=b6bfe7a8249147bb
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Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider.
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