WeatherBrains

This week's WeatherBrains episode is a homegrown show discussing FAR (False Alarm Ratio) and other current relevant topics in meteorology with our regulars and WeatherBrains veteran NWS meteorologist Kevin Laws.  
Our email officer Jen is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners. Reach us here: email@weatherbrains.com.
Mesoscale and microscale conditions of 11/2/26 central Oklahoma severe thunderstorms (03:30)
The Three Ingredients Method (3IM) by Jason Schaumann (07:00)
FAR and warning fatigue (11:00)
Mutual Aid concept:  NWS offices aiding NWS offices (24:30)
NOAA's Threats-in-Motion (TIM) explained (38:30)
Early 2028 target date for TIM implementation (44:30)
Next generation of NOAA weather radio (49:30)
Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) tone initiation protocol with TIM (52:00)
Moving on from the dangerous and deadly "siren mentality" (01:05:00)
Storm surveys and critical connections made after a major severe weather event (01:06:30)
Goals of Virtual Tornado Memorial:  Who were they? (01:11:30)
Weather impact on tragic Florida Learjet crash:  What We Know (01:15:00)
The Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice (01:27:00)
This Week in Tornado History With Jen (01:28:30)
E-Mail Segment (01:30:00)
Sneak peak at future WeatherBrains episodes! (01:38:30)
and more!
Web Sites from Episode 1085:  
THREATS-IN-MOTION NOAA Framework
Alabama Weather Network
Picks of the Week:
Kevin Laws - WeatherFront App
James Aydelott - Foghorn
Jen Narramore - Millersville University Meteorology Program
Rick Smith - Out
Troy Kimmel - Hurricane Maps Got Clearer, but a Florida State Study Finds People Still Mistake the Cone for the Storm's Size
Kim Klockow-McClain - Independent Evaluation of the NOAA's NWS Tornado Forecasting and Warning Services
Bill Murray - Out
John Gordon - NASA Aircraft Icing Training
James Spann - James Spann on Facebook: Photo of Friday contrails
The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Troy Kimmel, Bill Murray, Rick Smith, James Aydelott, Jen Narramore, John Gordon, and Dr. Kim Klockow-McClain. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating podcast about weather.

This week's WeatherBrains episode is all about Flood Inundation Mapping and how it is changing hydrology and decision support within the National Weather Service.
Our email officer Jen is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners. Reach us here: email@weatherbrains.com.
Spring Forward, Fall Back! (00:30)
FIM (Flood Inundation Mapping) (06:00)
Molly Cornelissen's early years in meteorology! (08:00)
Jeff Dobur's early years and his career path into hydrology (11:00)
When did FIM get started?  (12:30)
What does a River Forecast Center look like and what does it do?  (15:30)
Major FIM and National Water Model (NWM) successes in 2026 (29:00)
Remedies for creeks that were not previously gauged, modeled, or forecasted (47:00)
How many FIMs exist and where do you obtain training to use it? (52:30)
FIM KML Tool (01:00:30)
Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping (01:13:00)
Largest hurdles to improving FIM development (01:15:00)
The Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice (No segment this week)
This Week in Tornado History With Jen (01:20:00)
E-Mail Segment (01:21:30)
Sneak peak at future WeatherBrains episodes! (01:28:30)
and more!
Web Sites from Episode 1084:  
NOAA National Water Prediction Service
Alabama Weather Network
Picks of the Week:
Jeff Dobur - Categorical Flood Inundation Mapping (CatFIM) Locations
Molly Cornelissen - USGS FIM Program
James Aydelott - Effingham High School Red Regiment BOA 10/24/26
Jen Narramore - Haynado video!
Rick Smith - Out
Troy Kimmel - WeTransfer
Kim Klockow-McClain - Making Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) Work for Multiple Users: Improving the Design of FIM for Decision Support
Bill Murray - Out
John Gordon - Mark J. Rebilas on X: Four favorites from today's chase to SE Arizona for supercell storms with a 5% chance of tornadoes
James Spann - James Spann on X: Good morning to everyone except this guy!
The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Troy Kimmel, Bill Murray, Rick Smith, James Aydelott, Jen Narramore, John Gordon, and Dr. Kim Klockow-McClain. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating podcast about weather.

This week's WeatherBrains episode is a Tuesday night special on-site at the National Weather Association 2026 Annual Meeting in Omaha.  Tonight's focus then shifts to the Southwest as NWS Tucson lead forecaster John Glueck and University of Arizona professor Michael Crimmins break down everything about monsoons.  
Our email officer Jen is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners. Reach us here: email@weatherbrains.com.
Panel preliminary thoughts on NWA Annual Meeting (04:00)
Kevin Law's NWA presentation summary (06:45)
FAR (False Alarm Ratio) (11:00)
Birmingham NWS's FAR success story (11:30)
Necessary culture changes at different NWS offices (24:30)
Looking back at 2019 F4 Beauregard tornado aftermath (26:00)
Information gaps between watches/warnings (29:00)
 Threats-In-Motion (TIM) dissemination (32:00)
Forecasting in Kodiak vs Tucson (39:30)
What is the North American monsoon?  (45:30)
How can y0u prepare for monsoons?  (55:30)
Blowing dust vs haboob (01:05:00)
Dr. Crimmins monsoon research (01:07:00)
The Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice (01:23:00)
This Week in Tornado History With Jen (No segment this week)
E-Mail Segment (01:25:00)
Sneak peak at future WeatherBrains episodes! (01:32:30)
and more!
Web Sites from Episode 1083:  
NWA 2026 Annual Meeting
Alabama Weather Network
Picks of the Week:
Michael Crimmins - Everything Weather
James Aydelott - Foghorn
Jen Narramore - The Tornado Project
Rick Smith - Out
Troy Kimmel - Foghorn
Kim Klockow-McClain - Tornado Warning Response and Perceptions among Undergraduates in Nebraska
Kim Klockow-McClain - Weather Safety Information for Deaf and Hard of Hearing
Bill Murray - Out
John Gordon - Examining the U.S. Desert Southwest Monsoon: A Look at the Onset of, and Climatology of the Monsoon For New Mexico
James Spann - WPC URRD
The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Troy Kimmel, Bill Murray, Rick Smith, James Aydelott, Jen Narramore, John Gordon, and Dr. Kim Klockow-McClain. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating podcast about weather.

This week's WeatherBrains episode is all about FOX Weather.
Our Two Guest WeatherBrains tonight are members of FOX Weather.  FOX Weather has recently celebrated five years on the air.  Together they give us a fascinating look into how a national weather network got built, how it has evolved and where weather communication goes next.  Ian Oliver and Hailey Meier, we are honored to have you on this week's episode.  Welcome!
Our Guest Panelist for tonight's episode is a broadcast meteorologist with over two decades of experience.  He's worked in Macon, Georgia, Grand Junction, Colorado, and even NTV (Newfoundland television) in St. Johns, Newfoundland from 2013-2025.  He has now recently launched Sheerr Weather.  Eddie Sheerr, we are honored to have you on tonight's episode!
Our email officer Jen is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners. Reach us here: email@weatherbrains.com.
James Spann appears on ESPN's College GameDay! (06:30)
2026 Omaha NWA Annual Meeting roll call (14:00)
FOX Weather's startup in 2021 (15:30)
Hailey Meier's journey from MSU scholarship recipient to FOX Weather on-air personality (22:00)
Evolving idea and definition of what is expected of a present-day weather forecast (24:00)
Behind the scenes:  how the sausage is made at FOX Weather (29:30)
Caution in dealing with AI/fake images and video in 2026 (35:30)
Eddie's early weather background (51:30)
Dealing with wind forecasts in Newfoundland (01:05:00)
Notable hurricanes of Newfoundland (01:07:30)
Dr. Jacobs makes an appearance! (01:21:30)
AI model performance with recent Gulf hurricane (01:26:00)
Isaias post-cyclone feedback concerning forecast track (01:37:00)
What is the definition of a sting jet?  (01:49:30)
The Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice (01:42:30)
This Week in Tornado History With Jen (01:44:30)
E-Mail Segment (01:45:30)
Sneak peak at future WeatherBrains episodes! (01:53:00)
and more!
Web Sites from Episode 1082:  
Eddie Sheerr on YouTube
FOX Weather
Alabama Weather Network
Picks of the Week:
Hailey Meier - SkyDiamond

Dr. Neil Jacobs - EAGLE AI - Earth Prediction Innovation Center
James Aydelott - Anthony Duarte on X: How accurate were the models with Hurricane Isaias?
Jen Narramore - HurricaneTrack
Rick Smith - Out
Troy Kimmel - Fox Business adding FOX Weather Hurricane Isaias Coverage/Channel 3 Pensacola coverage
Kim Klockow-McClain - Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts (2006)
Bill Murray - "Skywatchers: The US Weather Bureau in action" by William Bixby
John Gordon - Nahel Belgherze on X: Terrifying footage of a violent tornado ripping through city of Marsala in Sicily, Italy
James Spann - James Spann checks in and gives us latest surrounding Hurricane Isaias on College GameDay!
The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Troy Kimmel, Bill Murray, Rick Smith, James Aydelott, Jen Narramore, John Gordon, and Dr. Kim Klockow-McClain. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating podcast about weather.

This week's WeatherBrains episode is all about fire weather from both a historical and modern perspective.  
Our Guest WeatherBrains for tonight's episode is NWS meteorologist Tom Hultquist.  Our discussion begins with the Peshtigo Fire of 1871, the deadliest wildfire in U.S. history.  Dr. Stephanie Hoekstra and Robyn Heffernan also join us to explore how fire weather information is used today - from risk perception and decision support to operational forecasting, interagency coordination, and the challenges facing wildland fire professionals.
Guest Panelist John Cameron is a TV meteorologist at News Channel 6 from Wichita Falls, TX who also joins us tonight.  Welcome to WeatherBrains!
Our email officer Jen is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners. Reach us here: email@weatherbrains.com.
Invest 92L in SW Gulf (04:00)
Dr. Stephanie Hoekstra's early background in weather (06:00)
Robyn Heffernan's early background in weather (07:00)
Tom Hultquist's early background in weather (09:00)
John Cameron's journey into the field of meteorology (12:30)
Analysis of Peshtigo Fire of 1871 (17:30)
Meteorological/anomalous setup that set the stage for the Peshtigo Fire (19:00)
Fuel management is a key player in driving wildfires (31:00)
Predominate tribes that inhabited the Peshtigo area in 1871 (43:00)
Peshtigo area vegetation/forestry and the role it played (46:30)
National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (48:00)
History of Red Flag Warning terminology (54:30)
Concerns over nefarious actors/arson in the wake of public fire forecasts (01:01:30)
Financial incentives for arson: Strict guidelines needed to prevent this criminal activity (01:03:30)
All about NOAA's Fire Weather Testbed (01:09:00)
Clarifying Red Flag Warning vs Fire Warning (01:22:00)
The Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice (01:33:00)
This Week in Tornado History With Jen (01:35:00)
E-Mail Segment (01:36:30)
Sneak peak at future WeatherBrains episodes! (01:40:00)
and more!
Web Sites from Episode 1081:  
National Interagency Fire Center
Alabama Weather Network
Picks of the Week:
John Cameron - KAUZ-TV 6 Wichita Falls, Texas 1964 tornado
John Cameron - J. Fitz Kennedy on Soundcloud
Dr. Stephanie Hoekstra - "Operationalizing the Fire Warning: distinguishing structural constraints from training-sensitive perceptions" by Dr. Stephanie Hoekstra
Tom Hultquist - Official Website of the Peshtigo Historical Society
James Aydelott - iCyclone on X: NOLO's center crossing the International Date Line
James Aydelott - Okie James and family at Peshtigo Museum
Jen Narramore - The Tragedy of Williamsonville
Rick Smith - NOAA Fire Weather Testbed Launches First In-Person Evaluation
Troy Kimmel - Foghorn
Kim Klockow-McClain - Call for Volunteers: AMS Statement on Prediction Markets and Weather Information
Bill Murray - Out
John Gordon - Germany's Rhine river hits new low
James Spann - NWS deals with radar issues along Gulf Coast
The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Troy Kimmel, Bill Murray, Rick Smith, James Aydelott, Jen Narramore, John Gordon, and Dr. Kim Klockow-McClain. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating podcast about weather.