BTC Sessions

Mentor Sessions EP 104 | Jim Rickards & Simon Dixon on the petrodollar, who runs the world, the AI bubble, dollar collapse, gold vs Bitcoin, stablecoin bank runs and frozen bank accounts.

Two wars, a quiet Russian diesel deal, and a $2 trillion AI build-out that one of these guests calls the greatest bubble in history. James Rickards and Simon Dixon sit down to map who is actually calling the shots in the Iran and Ukraine conflicts, and what it means for the dollar, gold, and your Bitcoin.

Rickards war gamed finance as a weapon for the Pentagon, advised the CIA on financial threats, and was general counsel at Long Term Capital Management when the Fed stepped in. In this conversation you'll learn why he argues the debasement trade is nonsense and the dollar is getting stronger, why China's yuan can't become a reserve currency, and why he believes an unregulated stablecoin bank run could trigger a panic in the Treasury market.

Simon Dixon pushes back with the view that war is the product, that the petrodollar is being quietly renegotiated as China becomes Saudi Arabia's main oil buyer, and that both gold and Bitcoin matter in the programmable control grid he sees coming. You'll also hear a sharp breakdown of the AI bubble, why superintelligence won't be achieved, and the latest supply-chain attacks on hardware wallets.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:33 - Who Is Calling The Shots In These Wars
2:33 - Who Really Controls Ukraine's Leadership
3:38 - Why Iran Has No Exit Strategy
6:46 - US-Russia Deal That Could End Two Wars
9:25 - Why Only China Russia And US Matter
12:16 - Simon Dixon: War Serves The Power Structure
15:13 - Midterms Weapons Shortages And Trump Agenda
18:46 - Seventy Years Of Petrodollar Monetary History
23:47 - Bigger Picture Above Trump And World Orders
26:19 - Why The Debasement Trade Is Nonsense
29:05 - China's Gold Reserves And Yuan Limitations
32:08 - Using Inflation To Solve The Debt Problem
33:09 - Petrodollar Shift From Saudi Arabia To China
49:26 - Two Trillion Dollar AI Infrastructure Bubble
55:42 - Why Superintelligence Cannot Be Achieved
56:11 - Ice-Nine Freezing Accounts And Redemptions
1:00:06 - Rickards Bitcoin Casino Chip Metaphor Explained
1:01:08 - Stablecoin Bank Run Risks On The Horizon
1:03:55 - Simon Dixon Stablecoins Versus Bank Deposits
1:26:48 - Hardware Wallet Attacks Targeting Self Custody
1:31:49 - Simon Dixon New Book Game Of Money

🔗 Links & Resources:
James Rickards newsletter - https://rickardswarning.com
Simon Dixon on X - https://x.com/SimonDixonTwit

This one is for the people trying to make sense of the whole board at once, not just the headlines. If that's you, join us live for the next Mentor Session and drop your take on war-is-the-product vs the-dollar-is-fine in the comments. We read them.

⚡Previous Episode:
Michael Howell: https://youtu.be/Tzyifqs-Bg0

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Mentor Sessions EP 103: Michael Howell on Global Liquidity, the Everything Bubble & When Bitcoin Rallies

Global liquidity is still rising in absolute terms, but the momentum is cracking fast, and that shift is already bending bond markets, credit spreads, and Bitcoin. Michael Howell breaks down exactly what's moving underneath the surface.

In this episode you'll see why Howell calls Bitcoin a "liquidity sponge," how the debt maturity wall forces old debt back into the system, and why roughly 80% of all financial market transactions are really just debt refinancing. You'll learn how to read the four indicators Howell watches before every crisis, why the euro system has no safe asset, how Japan quietly devalued its debt through a weaker yen, and why China is "basically Japan ten years later" buying gold for 23 straight months. You'll also hear his specific call: Bitcoin may struggle for three months, then do quite well into 2027 as Treasury QE monetizes government spending.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
1:06 - Is Global Liquidity Expanding Or Contracting?
2:33 - Momentum Indicator Signals Liquidity Rollover
3:25 - Why This Is a 5-6 Year Debt Refinancing Cycle
4:28 - The Debt Maturity Wall Explained
5:59 - Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio And Crisis Thresholds
7:20 - Where Liquidity Shifted: CapEx And AI Data Centers
8:54 - Treasury QE: The New Hidden Liquidity Conduit
12:54 - Fed September Hike And Liquidity Management
13:17 - Why 80% Of Lending Is Collateral Backed
14:12 - MOVE Index And Rising Bond Volatility Risk
15:42 - Bessent Buybacks Targeting Off-The-Run Treasuries
16:26 - Fed Managing Repo Spreads And Bank Reserves
17:30 - What The Repo Market Actually Is
20:05 - SOFR Spreads And The Danger Line
24:20 - What Really Drives The MOVE Index Higher
25:49 - Are We Heading Into A Financial Crisis?
26:53 - Two-Year Yields vs SOFR: Rates Rising
29:24 - Where Interest Rates Could Peak
33:25 - Bitcoin As A Liquidity Sponge: The Framework
34:17 - Howell's Medium-Term Bitcoin Bull Case
35:43 - Yield Curve Signals And Bitcoin Bull Market Timing
40:38 - The Eurodollar Market And Gilts
42:36 - France, Germany And The Oat-Bund Spread
43:29 - No Safe Asset In The Euro System
45:26 - Why The Eurozone May Not Hold Together
47:18 - Japan, The Yen Carry Trade And Weaker Yen
49:30 - How Japan Devalued Its Debt Successfully
51:39 - China Is Japan Ten Years Later
53:07 - China Printing Money And Buying Gold To Devalue
56:16 - Could The US Engineer A Domestic Devaluation?
58:25 - How Bitcoin Reacts To Chinese And Treasury Liquidity
1:02:04 - Final Thoughts On AI, Private Credit And Risk

Michael Howell runs Global Liquidity Indexes and publishes the Capital Wars Substack, where he tracks global liquidity data and the indicators referenced throughout this conversation.

🔗 Links & Resources:
→ Michael Howell on X: https://x.com/crossbordercap
→ Michael Howell on Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
→ GL Indexes: https://www.glindexes.com/

⚡Previous Episode:Rational Root: https://youtu.be/ZkpoEFOQ_cM

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#Bitcoin #GlobalLiquidity #EverythingBubble #MichaelHowell #BTCSessions #MentorSessions #FinancialCrisis #BitcoinMacro #TreasuryQE #DebtCycle #CapitalWars #BondMarket #YieldCurve #LiquiditySponge #Liquidity

Mentor Sessions Ep 102: Rational Root breaks down Bitcoin on-chain data, the 2026 cycle bottom, ETF cost basis, the four year cycle and his macro outlook.

The Bitcoin bottom looks like it's already in, and the on-chain data says this was the least retail driven cycle in history. Rational Root joins the show with a stack of charts to explain exactly why price held at $60K through the Cold Card hack, the chain split, and the biggest ETF outflows ever recorded.

You'll see how the short-term holder cost basis breakout flipped the market bullish, why the ETF cost basis rejected price twice before the breakout, and how the four year spiral chart is behaving at this bottom compared to every prior cycle. You'll learn why Rational Root bought STRC at a 25% discount during the panic, what the digital credit stress test revealed, and why he thinks an all-time high could land before June 2027. You'll also get his candid macro read on AI, ISM manufacturing, interest rates, and the midterm cycle, plus why diminishing returns are likely moving forward even as the cycle keeps chugging along.

This is a practical, data-first conversation for holders trying to decide whether to keep stacking or wait for a lower low that may never come.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:36 - Meet Rational Root and What's Top Of Mind
1:27 - Price Action And The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Breakout
3:21 - Why This Bottom Looks Like Every Prior Cycle
5:05 - Why We Never Got The Blow-Off Top This Cycle
8:19 - The Momentum Indicator And Mild Capitulation Explained
9:04 - How Institutional Buyers Dampened The Drawdown
11:24 - The Four Year Spiral Chart And Diminishing Returns
13:04 - Will The Spiral Chart Eventually Break?
18:05 - The ETF Cost Basis And The Second Leg Up
20:56 - ETF Inflows, Outflows And The Digital Credit Stress Test
22:39 - The On-Chain Value Map And Fair Value
25:57 - Buying STRC At A 25% Discount During The Panic
28:07 - Cold Card Hack, Chain Split And Price That Wouldn't Break
31:22 - How Fast Can The Recovery Come From Here?
33:54 - An All-Time High Before June 2027?
39:11 - Macro: ISM, The Business Cycle And Midterms
45:52 - AI, Fiat And Why Bitcoin Still Matters More
52:42 - What Gave Rational Root Pause This Cycle
55:04 - How He Actually Feels About Bitcoin Right Now
1:00:31 - Where To Find Rational Root's Charts

🔗 Links & Resources:
→ Follow Rational Root on X: https://x.com/therationalroot
→ Rational Root Newsletter & Charts: https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #OnChainAnalysis #BitcoinCycle #FourYearCycle #RationalRoot #BitcoinBottom #BitcoinETF #ShortTermHolder #SpiralChart #BitcoinMacro #DiminishingReturns #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinBullMarket #AllTimeHigh #Bitcoin2027 #BitcoinPrediction

Mentor Sessions Ep 101: Joe Carlasare, Dr. Jeff Ross, and American HODL break down why Bitcoin at $85K is poised to break $100K, the dead four year cycle, and AI's economic impact in 2026.

Nation states now hold more Bitcoin on a percentage basis than individuals do, and Joe Carlasare and Jeff argue that single fact rewrites the entire bull case heading into 2026. With Bitcoin sitting around $85,000, this conversation makes the case that $100K is the starting bell, not the ceiling.

You'll learn why Carlasare calls the recent sell-off a self-fulfilling prophecy, why both guests believe the traditional four year cycle is finally dead, and how the walk from $100K to $1 million could happen faster and easier than most holders expect. You'll hear why long-term hodlers above $100K are already gone, why the Cold Card capitulation felt like the real bottom, and how liquidity, manufacturing, and speculation (the "three burners") tell the macro story right now. You'll also get a frank breakdown of AI's economic impact, the fight over compute governance, the IP and legal battles facing OpenAI and Anthropic, and the FinCEN rules on self-hosted wallets that were just rescinded.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:40 - Calling The Bottom At $58K And Where Bitcoin Sits Now
1:17 - P(Doom) Zero, P(BTC) 100
2:34 - Nation States Own More Bitcoin Than Individuals
3:23 - The Entire Sell-Off Was A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
4:36 - Why Flipping Green In 2026 Breaks The Four Year Cycle
6:44 - The Cold Card Capitulation And The Double Bottom
8:19 - Covid Distorted Every Economic Cycle
11:03 - Bitcoin Trades On Macro Now, Not The Cycle
13:14 - Junk Bonds At 14% And Broken Correlations
14:25 - Only 2.5% From A Green Year, 20% From $100K
15:30 - Why $100K Unlocks $200K, $300K, $400K
16:17 - The Walk From $100K To $1 Million
24:01 - The Michael Saylor Prophecy And Follow-On Buyers
27:31 - James Check: There's No Narrative, Just Demand
30:08 - Strategy Survived The Stress Test
34:26 - Is The Equity Market Over Its Skis?
38:19 - Creative Destruction And The AI Economy
40:35 - HODL On The AI Red Capture And Robo-God Labs
45:25 - Effective Altruism, The Vatican, And Compute Governance
47:33 - The Coming AI False Flag
52:47 - Can You Make AI Labs Legally Liable?
55:41 - Do Local Models Beat The Frontier?
1:00:41 - Will Wall Street Shred OpenAI And Anthropic?
1:01:02 - China, Manufacturing, And The IP Problem
1:03:13 - Is AI Output Fair Use? Courts Say No
1:06:35 - FinCEN's Self-Custody Rules Rescinded
1:07:19 - The Three Burners: Liquidity, Manufacturing, Speculation
1:13:48 - What FinCEN Actually Changed
1:15:15 - Joe's New Book And Closing Thoughts

This episode references the Cold Card incident, Michael Howell's liquidity work, Lyn Alden's fiscal framing, and Joe Carlasare's new book. Hardware wallet and self-custody tools discussed in the sponsor segments include Trezor and Casa multisig.

🔗 Links & Resources:
→ Follow Joe Carlasare on X: https://x.com/JoeCarlasare
→ Follow Jeff Ross on X: https://x.com/FormerDrJeff
→ Follow HODL on X: https://x.com/americanhodl8

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions
10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS

⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN
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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #BTCSessions #JoeCarlasare #JeffRoss #AmericanHODL #BTC #BitcoinMacro #FourYearCycle #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinBullMarket #AIandBitcoin #BitcoinTo1Million #NationStateBitcoin #SelfCustody #FinCEN

Mentor Sessions Episode 100: James Check breaks down Bitcoin market cycles, on-chain data, the bull market transition, and his end-of-year $100K price target for 2026

Bitcoin just flipped from bear to bull and the on-chain data proves it: more than half of all invested wealth is now in profit, up from just 8% at the $58K lows. James Check returns to break down exactly what changed and where the cycle goes next.

You'll learn why James called the bottom back in July and what the run from the low $60s to $86K revealed on-chain. You'll see his four-phase market cycle model, how short-term and long-term holder cost basis acts as resistance, and why 90% of ETF buyers were underwater before $8 billion in outflows hit the bottom. You'll also hear his honest end-of-year outlook, his left/mid/right curve scenarios, and why he believes dips will most likely be bought from here.

This is a measured, data-first conversation for anyone navigating the transition out of a bear market without getting chopped up.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:42 - Confirming the Bull Market
1:24 - On-Chain Data Reveals Human Emotion
1:36 - Price Pain Versus Time Pain Capitulation
2:13 - Macro Trends Begin on One-Second Charts
3:13 - Two Legs Up and Short Squeezes
4:27 - Wealth in Profit Jumps From 8% to 55%
5:27 - Bear Market PTSD and Transition
6:25 - Will Old Buyers Sell at Break-Even?
7:22 - Who Bought Bitcoin at $64K?
8:04 - Four Seasons of Holder Behavior
9:39 - Volume Rising Across Exchanges
10:24 - Anything Missed in the Bear Market?
11:42 - ETFs Bought Tops and Sold Bottoms
13:07 - How 20% of Coins Drive 55% Drawdowns
15:11 - What a True Catastrophic Event Looks Like
15:48 - $100K Resistance and Silent IPO
18:09 - Why the Next All-Time High Feels Special
19:46 - Low-Fee ETF Flows Gaining Traction
21:19 - Why Companies Avoid Bitcoin on Balance Sheets
23:01 - Housing Markets Push Rotation Into Bitcoin
24:00 - Bitcoin Is Not Set and Forget
28:18 - Personal Signals Confirming the Bottom
30:40 - Testing Fear Versus Greed Titles
31:04 - Why Brains Are Wired to Lose Money
32:57 - Is the DCA Strategy Still Active?
33:46 - Maxing Purchases at $60K
40:40 - Bull Market Lines of Defense
44:34 - Tracking the Hot Ball of Money
53:47 - AI CapEx Compared to Bitcoin Mining
59:48 - End-of-Year Price Targets Left Mid Right
1:02:47 - Disbelief Rally Remains Alive and Well

🔗 Links & Resources:
→ James Check's newsletter & Checkonchain charts: https://checkonchain.com
→ James X.com: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions
10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS

⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN
https://qrco.de/bfiDC6

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #BTC #Bitcoin100K #BTCSessions #JamesCheck #Checkonchain #OnChainData #BitcoinMarketCycle #BitcoinBullMarket #BullMarket #BearMarket #BitcoinAnalysis #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinETF #CostBasis #SelfCustody #Glassnode