For more than two decades the Hoover Institution has been producing Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson, a series hosted by Hoover fellow Peter Robinson as a...
Empire of Illusion: Frank Dikötter on Why China Isn’t a Superpower
Frank Dikötter is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who has recently returned to the United States after living in Hong Kong since 2006. In this provocative conversation, Dikötter challenges the prevailing narrative about China’s rise. Drawing from his latest book, China After Mao: The Rise of a Superpower, Dikötter argues that the Chinese Communist Party has masterfully projected the image of a powerful, modern, and economically dominant nation—but says that image is largely a façade.
Dikötter contends that far from being a true superpower, China remains fundamentally fragile: an empire held together by repression, propaganda, and paranoia. Despite gleaming cities and impressive-seeming economic statistics often cited by the West, he asserts that much of China’s so-called growth has been built on the backs of an impoverished population, often without its consent or benefit. He further explains how inflated numbers, hollow institutions, and internal contradictions undermine China’s long-term strength. In his view, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hasn’t lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty—it has merely stepped aside as ordinary people began reclaiming their autonomy after decades of devastation under Mao.
Dikötter delves into how the CCP’s fear—of its own citizens, of capitalism, of peaceful evolution—has driven decisions for decades. Dikötter also draws parallels with the Soviet Union and suggests that, like the USSR’s, China’s power is brittle beneath the surface. Xi Jinping, he argues, is not a break from tradition but a continuation of the Party’s long-standing obsession with control.
This conversation calls into question not only China’s global ambitions but also how the West has consistently misread the CCP’s intentions and capabilities. Ultimately, Dikötter leaves us with a stark question: Are we overestimating China’s strength—and underestimating its fear?
Recorded on March 27, 2025.
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Conflict: Niall Ferguson on Ukraine, Taiwan, and His War of Words with V. P. Vance
Niall Ferguson, preeminent historian and Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, joins this episode of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson to discuss the war and ongoing stalemate in Ukraine; the Trump administration’s foreign policy and negotiations with Russia; and the broader geopolitical landscape, including the shift in Europe’s defense posture as the US signals a reduced commitment to NATO.
Throughout the conversation, Ferguson explores historical analogies to better understand Ukraine’s position, using comparisons to South Korea and South Vietnam. He discusses China’s backing of Russia and its role in what he calls Cold War II, highlighting the long-term implications of this growing alliance. The discussion also covers the shock strategy deployed by Trump and Vice President JD Vance to pressure Europe into taking more responsibility for its own defense, a move that Ferguson believes has finally awakened European leaders to their countries’ security needs.
Beyond Ukraine, the conversation shifts to the larger economic and military vulnerabilities of the United States, particularly in relation to China. Ferguson argues that America is no longer in a position of overwhelming strength and draws parallels between the US today and Britain in the 1930s: both as declining empires facing an emboldened adversary. He warns that while Trump’s realpolitik approach may be a necessary adaptation to America’s strategic limitations, its success remains uncertain. The discussion ultimately raises the question of whether this strategy will prevent a major conflict or, conversely, accelerate the decline of American global primacy.
Recorded on March 14, 2025
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The Great Partnership: How George Shultz Helped Ronald Reagan Win The Cold War
This panel discussion on the legacy of George Shultz, former US secretary of state and Hoover Institution senior fellow, features the Hoover Institution’s director, Condoleezza Rice; Israeli politician and human rights activist Natan Sharansky; and Abraham Sofaer, the former legal advisor to the State Department under George Shultz and the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy and National Security Affairs at the Hoover Institution. Together, they reflect on Shultz’s contributions to US foreign policy, human rights, and the end of the Cold War.
The discussion explores Shultz’s deep commitment to human rights, particularly in supporting Soviet refuseniks and advancing the cause of freedom in the USSR. The panelists recount how Shultz worked alongside President Ronald Reagan to integrate human rights into diplomatic negotiations, leverage the Helsinki Accords, and challenge the Soviet Union’s authoritarian system.
Sharansky, a former Soviet dissident imprisoned for 12 years for his activism, shares personal experiences of Shultz’s support for Soviet Jews and recounts the political maneuvering that contributed to his own release. Rice and Sofaer discuss Shultz’s diplomatic philosophy, his strategic role in Reagan’s administration, and his ability to bridge the gap between hardline anti-communism and pragmatic diplomacy.
The conversation also touches on the role of ideas in shaping policy and whether current generations fully grasp the stakes of international conflict in the way Cold War leaders like Shultz and Reagan did. The panelists debate modern revisionist views on the end of the Cold War with a strong defense of Reagan and Shultz’s deliberate strategy to weaken the Soviet Union.
Ultimately, the discussion serves as both a tribute to the life and times of George Shultz and a reflection on leadership, diplomacy, and the enduring battle of ideas in world affairs.
Recorded on February 12, 2025.
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Five Questions for Stephen Kotkin: Advice for the New Administration (and the Rest of Us)
Stephen Kotkin is the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and one of the most preeminent historians in the world. In this installment of Five Questions for Stephen Kotkin, he explores the reelection of Donald Trump, debating whether it represents a fluke or a seismic shift in American politics, while contextualizing this within a broader discussion of global democracy, as 2024 saw significant elections across many of the world’s most populous nations.
The conversation also delves into the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing Vladimir Putin’s strategic missteps, the challenges of authoritarian regimes, and the potential paths to resolution. Additionally, Kotkin addresses the rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly Iran’s nuclear ambitions and Israel’s response, emphasizing the importance of strategy in achieving lasting peace. Throughout, Kotkin’s sharp historical perspective provides a nuanced analysis of the intersections between leadership, governance, and global stability.
Recorded on January 9, 2025.
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Marc Andreessen: It’s Morning Again In America
Marc Andreessen is a prominent Silicon Valley entrepreneur, investor, and technologist and the cofounder and general partner at Andreessen Horowitz. This discussion covers Andreessen’s journey from his upbringing in rural Wisconsin, through his founding Netscape and the development of one of the first commercial internet browsers in his twenties, to his pivotal role in shaping Silicon Valley and now national politics.
The interview also delves into the technological and political evolution of Silicon Valley and Andreessen’s own shifting political affiliations from left to right, along with his vision for leveraging technology to drive societal progress, the role of innovation in addressing energy challenges, border security, and national defense.
Andreessen also discusses DOGE, a policy initiative focused on government efficiency (and the strategy DOGE may use to accomplish its goals), his “Techno-Optimist Manifesto,” and the imperative for revitalizing the US military’s technological capabilities to maintain global competitiveness.
Recorded on January 9, 2024.
For more than two decades the Hoover Institution has been producing Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson, a series hosted by Hoover fellow Peter Robinson as an outlet for political leaders, scholars, journalists, and today’s big thinkers to share their views with the world.
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