Supply Chain Secrets

Back from TPM, the team dives into the biggest forces reshaping ocean shipping right now.
This week’s episode covers:
Demand data and a widening imbalance on Asia to Europe, plus what that means for headhaul pricing
How parcel and DTC trade lanes are shifting as brands rethink sourcing and resilience
The latest on IEEPA being ruled unlawful, what “refunds” might actually mean, and why the importer of record matters
Section 122 tariffs, the 150 day clock, and what comes next
The Strait of Hormuz disruption, end-of-voyage declarations, cargo being discharged at alternate ports, and the surge of emergency surcharges
Why some fuel surcharges risk being blunt, not trade-specific, and potentially duplicative for shippers already paying variable fuel mechanisms
How index-linked contracts and freight derivatives can help manage exposure when markets reprice fast

Recorded live during TPM26 in Long Beach, this episode breaks down the rapidly escalating situation involving Iran and what it means for ocean shipping immediately. Lars Jensen walks through the on-the-ground implications for the Strait of Hormuz and the ripple effects that can spread congestion and rate spikes far beyond the Middle East.

The team also explains why “Phantom GRIs” show up in quote-based indices, what that means for contract negotiations, and why transaction-based indices like NYFI can help separate market sentiment from what shippers actually pay.

Finally, NYSHEX CEO Gordon Downes joins to outline how index-linked contracts and hedging tools can help shippers and NVOCCs manage structural volatility, including practical first steps and how to get started.

This week’s Supply Chain Secrets focuses squarely on tariff volatility and what it means for global trade.
The Supreme Court overturns IEEPA tariffs. A new blanket tariff is introduced days later. Hundreds of commodity-level exemptions are published. Refund pathways remain unclear. The trade environment shifted dramatically within 72 hours.
Lars walks through what is actually in effect, what remains in place under Sections 301 and 232, and why the current policy landscape makes forward planning extraordinarily difficult.
Beyond tariffs, we cover:
Post Chinese New Year rate declines across the Pacific and Asia-Europe
Why Pacific spreads are tightening and what that signals about market certainty
Reliability reaching a six-year high
CMA-CGM’s apparent new Japan-to-North Europe service
What this means for TPM contract negotiations
If you are managing exposure, negotiating contracts, or trying to interpret conflicting market signals, this episode provides structured clarity in a chaotic week.

This week’s Supply Chain Secrets is jam-packed. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver dig into sharp post–Chinese New Year moves: loaded spot rates falling faster than expected, spreads tightening across Pacific trades, and what that means for market certainty. We unpack carrier results, network changes from Ocean Alliance’s “Day 10,” and real operational risk in the Red Sea return.

The headline story: Hapag-Lloyd’s agreement to acquire most of ZIM’s fleet: what it means for Gemini, MSC, and competitive dynamics in the Transpacific and beyond. Lars breaks down why the deal matters strategically (fleet composition, charter vs. owned tonnage, and network implications), and why shippers, NVOCCs and carriers should be watching service reshuffles closely this contract season.

If you want data-forward insight into where rates are actually moving, how to read market spreads (not just headlines), and what consolidation means for your routing and negotiation strategy — press play.

Freight markets are turning earlier—and faster—than seasonal patterns would suggest. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack why Pacific spot rates are collapsing well ahead of Chinese New Year, how this downturn compares to historical seasonality, and what that means for carriers and shippers alike.
Lars also introduces a deeper way to look at the market: not just the headline rate, but the spread around it. Using real NYFI data, he explains how wide or narrow spreads reveal market uncertainty, negotiating power, and whether shippers are truly “in market.”
The conversation then shifts to the latest on tariffs, global demand bifurcation, carrier earnings, and early steps toward a Red Sea reopening, including Gemini network moves and what a gradual return could look like in practice.
A data-driven look at where the market is weakening, where risk remains, and how alignment—not headlines—matters most heading deeper into 2026.