Independent Americans with Paul Rieckhoff

There were two electorates in this election, and almost nobody talks about the first one. The second is the one that voted on Tuesday. The first is the one that picked the names on that ballot: the people who voted in the primaries last spring and summer. TMI, our morning newsletter, put the two side by side, state by state, using the national voter file. Paul Rieckhoff walks through what it shows.

In the 28 states that register voters by party, 30% of registered voters belong to no party. They cast 16% of this year's primary ballots. In the 13 closed-primary states, 4% of them took part, against 25% of Democrats and Republicans. New Jersey: 35% of the rolls, 1% of the primary ballots. Maine and New Mexico opened their primaries since 2022, and no-party voters showed up. In 2024, 366 of 435 House seats were settled before November. And in Nebraska, South Dakota and Idaho, the Senate margin was a fraction of the independents who never had a primary to vote in.

Read the full special report, with a source behind every number:

https://independentamericans.us/tmi/electorate/?from=tmi

Sign up for TMI, free every weekday morning:

https://independentamericans.us/tmi

Chapters

0:00 A special report from Independent Americans

0:20 Two electorates

1:06 Who picked the ballot

1:32 Where the door is shut

2:24 Open the door and they come

2:52 Who voted on it

4:00 The House: 366 of 435

4:27 Tuesday's margins

5:34 One picked the ballot, the other voted on it

Sources: L2 voter file via VoterCount (retrieved Oct 29 and Nov 4, 2026), state election offices and registration reports, AP race calls as logged by the IVA Election Desk, MIT Election Data and Science Lab 2024 House returns. Margins are unofficial, partial counts as of Nov 4 and change until the states certify.

-Join us for Veterans Day in New York City 11/11.

-Check out the important work happening at  Independent Voter News at IVN.us.

-Let Vets Vote: Millions of American veterans are being locked out of primary elections in the country they served. See what we’re doing to change that.

-Visit Kalshi and trade on anything. Use code INDEPENDENT to get $25 when you trade $25.

-Head to cozyearth.com and use the code AMERICANS for an exclusive 20% off.

-Join Noble Mobile today and get a $100 bonus when you use code PAUL and stay a member for 2 months!

-Learn more about American Veterans for Ukraine here.

-Learn more about The Headstrong Project for Veterans, Tragedy Assistance Program for Survivors (TAPS), and Department of Veterans Affairs resources in your area. Seeking support is not a sign of weakness. It’s a show of strength. If you or a loved one are in immediate crisis, dial 988 and press 1, or text 838255.

Connect with Independent Americans:

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-Join the movement. Hook into our exclusive Patreon community of Independent Americans. Get extra content, connect with guests, meet other Independent Americans, attend events, get merch discounts, and support this show that speaks truth to power. 

-And get cool IA and Righteous hats, t-shirts and other merch now in time for the new year. 

Independent Americans is powered by veteran-owned and led Righteous Media. 

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Chuck Todd is back on Independent Americans, and he's not sugarcoating what just happened. Voters didn't fall in love with Democrats — they repudiated Trumpism, and independents were the fulcrum. Paul and Chuck unpack why 12 of the last 14 national elections have been change elections, why the pundit class keeps getting high on its own supply, and how candidates like Gina Hinojosa, Annie Andrews, and James Talarico actually met voters where they are instead of lecturing them. They also name the elephant in the room: Trump is still in power, Pete Hegseth is still the most dangerous man in the administration, and the Democrats are already at risk of overcorrecting.

From there the conversation widens into the future of independent media, the five-to-seven million viewers Chuck and Chris Cillizza pulled on election night without a legacy network, and why career military leaders may be the country's best candidates for a 2028 independent run. Then it's Football Friday — Miami at Notre Dame, LSU–Alabama, the Holy War, Army–Air Force under the lights at West Point, Bills–Vikings on Monday night, and a shout for the New York City Lions 12U playing their final game in Queens. Patriotic hope, righteous anger, and real analysis — all in one episode.

-WATCH full video of this episode here.

-Join us for Veterans Day in New York City 11/11.

-Check out the important work happening at  Independent Voter News at IVN.us.

-Track the IVA candidates on our poll tracker.

-Let Vets Vote: Millions of American veterans are being locked out of primary elections in the country they served. See what we’re doing to change that.

-Visit Kalshi and trade on anything. Use code INDEPENDENT to get $25 when you trade $25.

-Head to cozyearth.com and use the code AMERICANS for an exclusive 20% off.

-Join Noble Mobile today and get a $100 bonus when you use code PAUL and stay a member for 2 months!

-Learn more about American Veterans for Ukraine here.

-Learn more about The Headstrong Project for Veterans, Tragedy Assistance Program for Survivors (TAPS), and Department of Veterans Affairs resources in your area. Seeking support is not a sign of weakness. It’s a show of strength. If you or a loved one are in immediate crisis, dial 988 and press 1, or text 838255.

Connect with Independent Americans:

Subscribe on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all podcast platforms

Read more at Substack

Support ad-free episodes at Patreon 

Connect: Instagram  • X/Twitter • BlueSky • Facebook 

Follow on social: @PaulRieckhoff on X, Instagram, Threads, and Bluesky
-Join the movement. Hook into our exclusive Patreon community of Independent Americans. Get extra content, connect with guests, meet other Independent Americans, attend events, get merch discounts, and support this show that speaks truth to power. 

-And get cool IA and Righteous hats, t-shirts and other merch now in time for the new year. 

Independent Americans is powered by veteran-owned and led Righteous Media. 

And now part of the BLEAV network! 

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

4 IVA wins. Vets win big nationally. Especially women vets. GOP sports figures win again. They’re coming for Hegseth. No more political ads in sports! 

Independents were the water in the blue wave, and the water level is rising. In episode 668, Paul Rieckhoff rips through the midterm results with a combat helmet on and no illusions about what just happened. Yes, Democrats won big. No, America doesn't suddenly love Chuck Schumer or Hakeem Jeffries. What the data actually shows — pulled from CNN exit polling and Jeremy Gruber's analysis at Open Primaries — is that independent voters broke decisively for the candidates who sent a message: Trump is getting rich and you're getting screwed. In Texas, Ohio, Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa — independents weren't a marginal factor. They changed the map.

Paul also walks through every independent veteran Senate race: Todd Achilles in Idaho, Brian Bengs in South Dakota, Dan Osborn in Nebraska, Seth Bodnar in Montana, Bob Chew in Colorado, and Ty Pinkins' still-too-close race in Mississippi. The money gap is the story — Osborn got outspent by a billionaire's son, Bodnar faced a Democrat spoiler who wouldn't drop out. But below the radar, four IVA-endorsed independent veterans did win, including a second straight independent mayor in Ridgecrest, California. Add 79 veterans heading to Congress with a record 11 women veterans, Tom Tillis coming for Hegseth, Carney shutting Russia out of junior hockey, and J.D. Vance already blaming Trump for the wipeout — and you've got a wake-up call for both parties. The question isn't whether independents matter anymore. It's whether the system catches up.

-WATCH full video of this episode here.

-Join us for Veterans Day in New York City 11/11.

-Check out the important work happening at  Independent Voter News at IVN.us.

-Track the IVA candidates on our poll tracker.

-Let Vets Vote: Millions of American veterans are being locked out of primary elections in the country they served. See what we’re doing to change that.

-Visit Kalshi and trade on anything. Use code INDEPENDENT to get $25 when you trade $25.

-Head to cozyearth.com and use the code AMERICANS for an exclusive 20% off.

-Join Noble Mobile today and get a $100 bonus when you use code PAUL and stay a member for 2 months!

-Learn more about American Veterans for Ukraine here.

-Learn more about The Headstrong Project for Veterans, Tragedy Assistance Program for Survivors (TAPS), and Department of Veterans Affairs resources in your area. Seeking support is not a sign of weakness. It’s a show of strength. If you or a loved one are in immediate crisis, dial 988 and press 1, or text 838255.

Connect with Independent Americans:

Subscribe on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all podcast platforms

Read more at Substack

Support ad-free episodes at Patreon 

Connect: Instagram  • X/Twitter • BlueSky • Facebook 

Follow on social: @PaulRieckhoff on X, Instagram, Threads, and Bluesky
-Join the movement. Hook into our exclusive Patreon community of Independent Americans. Get extra content, connect with guests, meet other Independent Americans, attend events, get merch discounts, and support this show that speaks truth to power. 

-And get cool IA and Righteous hats, t-shirts and other merch now in time for the new year. 

Independent Americans is powered by veteran-owned and led Righteous Media. 

And now part of the BLEAV network! 

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Vets Win. Closed Primaries Cooked Results. Is Iran Imminent Now? Vets Day is Next. Election Results Breakdown.

Paul Rieckhoff records before sunrise on the morning after — and cuts through the celebration with a no-BS, intelligence-grade read on what actually happened. Yes, Democrats rolled: the House, likely the Senate, Troy Jackson knocking off Susan Collins in Maine, Talarico in Texas, Brown over Husted in Ohio, Annie Andrews in South Carolina. But Democrats are only 27% of the vote. Republicans are 27%. Independents are 45% — and we decided every one of these races. This wasn't a blue wave. It was an anti-Trump wave, powered by an independent tsunami.

Paul walks through the independent veteran candidates from IVA — Bodnar, Osborn, Bangs, Achilles, Bob Chew, Ty Pinkins in a Mississippi race still too close to call, Bill Hill fighting for Alaska's lone House seat — and why winning the race was never the only point. He names the next danger zone: a cornered Trump with the most powerful military in history and 70 days until Democrats are sworn in. He calls on disenfranchised Republicans and burned-out Democrats to declare their independence, previews next week's Veterans Day conversation with Governor Wes Moore, and makes the case for merging Veterans Day and Election Day into one national holiday. Righteous anger, patriotic hope, and a clear-eyed look at what comes next.

-WATCH full video of this episode here.

-Check out the important work happening at  Independent Voter News at IVN.us.

-Track the IVA candidates on our poll tracker.

-Let Vets Vote: Millions of American veterans are being locked out of primary elections in the country they served. See what we’re doing to change that.

-Visit Kalshi and trade on anything. Use code INDEPENDENT to get $25 when you trade $25.

-Head to cozyearth.com and use the code AMERICANS for an exclusive 20% off.

-Join Noble Mobile today and get a $100 bonus when you use code PAUL and stay a member for 2 months!

-Learn more about American Veterans for Ukraine here.

-Learn more about The Headstrong Project for Veterans, Tragedy Assistance Program for Survivors (TAPS), and Department of Veterans Affairs resources in your area. Seeking support is not a sign of weakness. It’s a show of strength. If you or a loved one are in immediate crisis, dial 988 and press 1, or text 838255.

Connect with Independent Americans:

Subscribe on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all podcast platforms

Read more at Substack

Support ad-free episodes at Patreon 

Connect: Instagram  • X/Twitter • BlueSky • Facebook 

Follow on social: @PaulRieckhoff on X, Instagram, Threads, and Bluesky
-Join the movement. Hook into our exclusive Patreon community of Independent Americans. Get extra content, connect with guests, meet other Independent Americans, attend events, get merch discounts, and support this show that speaks truth to power. 

-And get cool IA and Righteous hats, t-shirts and other merch now in time for the new year. 

Independent Americans is powered by veteran-owned and led Righteous Media. 

And now part of the BLEAV network! 

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It is election day 2026, and Paul Rieckhoff is wide awake before sunrise in New York with one message: expect the unexpected. The Wall Street Journal is reporting the US has been quietly striking Iran for weeks. The Pentagon hasn't held a routine press briefing since May 5th. Tucker Carlson is warning that Netanyahu is pressuring Trump toward a tactical nuke strike on Pickaxe Mountain. And a cornered Trump — if the walls close in tonight — is the most dangerous Trump we have ever seen. This is no-BS analysis from a combat veteran and institutional watchdog who refuses to let the election news cycle bury the war machine cranking up behind it.

From there Paul breaks down the political theater: Trump's embarrassing closing argument at what he dubs the Trump reflecting pool, Haley Stevens breaking with Democrats to endorse Mike Rogers, Kathy Hochul shine-vampiring Mamdani and AOC with a Buffalo Bills bit nobody from the Bronx is buying, and Mark Cuban channeling the growing none-of-the-above energy. Then the real headline: 35 independent veterans running for office this cycle, every one of them endorsed by Independent Veterans of America, from Dan Osborn in Nebraska to Seth Bodnar in Montana to Todd Achilles in Idaho. This is the independent wave the cable networks won't name. Tune in, then go vote.

-WATCH full video of this episode here.

-Check out the important work happening at  Independent Voter News at IVN.us.

-Track the IVA candidates on our poll tracker.

-Let Vets Vote: Millions of American veterans are being locked out of primary elections in the country they served. See what we’re doing to change that.

-Visit Kalshi and trade on anything. Use code INDEPENDENT to get $25 when you trade $25.

-Head to cozyearth.com and use the code AMERICANS for an exclusive 20% off.

-Join Noble Mobile today and get a $100 bonus when you use code PAUL and stay a member for 2 months!

-Learn more about American Veterans for Ukraine here.

-Learn more about The Headstrong Project for Veterans, Tragedy Assistance Program for Survivors (TAPS), and Department of Veterans Affairs resources in your area. Seeking support is not a sign of weakness. It’s a show of strength. If you or a loved one are in immediate crisis, dial 988 and press 1, or text 838255.

Connect with Independent Americans:

Subscribe on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all podcast platforms

Read more at Substack

Support ad-free episodes at Patreon 

Connect: Instagram  • X/Twitter • BlueSky • Facebook 

Follow on social: @PaulRieckhoff on X, Instagram, Threads, and Bluesky
-Join the movement. Hook into our exclusive Patreon community of Independent Americans. Get extra content, connect with guests, meet other Independent Americans, attend events, get merch discounts, and support this show that speaks truth to power. 

-And get cool IA and Righteous hats, t-shirts and other merch now in time for the new year. 

Independent Americans is powered by veteran-owned and led Righteous Media. 

And now part of the BLEAV network! 

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.