Riskgaming

• What America can learn from the rebooting of Estonia

  Estonia is a nation of 1.3 million people, situated in a dangerous neighborhood on the Baltic Sea. It gained its independence early in the 20th century, only for the Soviets to take the country by force. Estonia gained its independence again in 1991, and has since become one of the most digital-native countries in the world. How did a nation with a feared secret police become so open to the government digitizing data on every one of its citizens? And why did other former Soviet Republics not follow in the same way?Those questions and more are at the center of Joel Burke’s new book, “Rebooting a Nation: The Incredible Rise of Estonia, E-Government and the Startup Revolution.” The nation has outperformed across the board, and Joel takes a full look at the unique institutions and cultures that led to such success.Joining alongside host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, the three talk about the early years of Estonia’s existence, why Skype was such a watershed for the nation, why privacy has a very different meaning in Estonia than elsewhere, why eGovernment can actually be even more private than our existing data systems in the United States, and finally, why Estonia’s government has so deeply embraced the private sector.

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• The relevant axis of political conflict is change versus stasis

  Abundance has become the word of the year in politics, led by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson’s book and a slew of articles and podcasts trailing in its wake. Everyone loves growth and prosperity of course, but what ultimately matters in local politics is organizing. To build the future in America’s cities, you’ve got to secure petitions, representation and votes, and that’s the subject of today’s show.Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner are Ryder Kessler and Catherine Vaughn, the two co-heads of Abundance New York. They’ve built up a decentralized organization of several thousand locals looking to expand New York’s prosperity in the 21st century by developing a slate of programming including meetups, petition drives, political endorsements and more. Ryder was formerly a founder of a tech startup, and Catherine built an organization to elect state legislative candidates across America.The four talk about the crisis facing New York City, why the status quo bias is so heavy, how Abundance New York is changing the narrative around prosperity, what it’s like to organize a community centered on local issues, what’s it like to serve in local politics, and finally, how to grapple with the historical legacy of Robert Moses.

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• Samuel Arbesman on his new book, The Magic of Code

  It’s not every day that we get to fete the launch of a new book by one of our colleagues at Lux Capital, so today is a very special day. Lux’s scientist-in-residence, Sam Arbesman, just published his new book, “The Magic of Code: How Digital Language Created and Connects Our World―and Shapes Our Future.” It’s a deep dive into the wonderful conjuring that comes from coding computers, and Sam explores programming languages, spreadsheets, and how code bends reality all in a taut narrative. At its center, Sam is looking to bring the human back into the machine, and create a better computing environment for the future.Joining Editor-in-Chief of Riskgaming Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, the three talk about the new book and its major themes, the writing, editing and publishing process, as well as also how Sam is feeling about the science and venture world after nearly a decade with Lux.This episode will be published on both the Riskgaming and The Orthogonal Bet podcast feeds.

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• Can we ever defend against agricultural warfare?

  Food is one of the great bedrocks of human existence. Given its primacy to survival, it has also increasingly become a locus for conflict, either due to famine or as an exploitable vulnerability of even the most powerful countries. Russia’s war on Ukraine made it clear that grain could be fought over in the battle for supremacy, with the whole world dependent on the outcome.Today, we have a special episode of the podcast. Our Riskgaming designer Ian Curtiss hosts Alicia Ellis, an Air Force veteran who is now the director of the Master of Arts in Global Security program at Arizona State University. She and her husband own a regenerative farm in Phoenix’s East Valley, and she has specialized in the future of American agricultural security in her own research. She’s also designing a game of her own, called New War, to highlight the complex interplay of challenges that come with new forms of warfare and particularly so-called “gray zone” tactics.Ian and Alicia talk about what it’s like to farm in the twenty-first century, Russia and Ukraine’s grain production, Covid-19 and beef prices, and the complete abdication of government investment in the future security of the food supply.

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• For America, is big or open best for AI models?

  Since the launch of Project Stargate by OpenAI and the debut of DeepSeek’s V3 model, there has been a raging debate in global AI circles: what’s the balance between openness and scale when it comes to the competition for the frontiers of AI performance? More compute has traditionally led to better models, but V3 showed that it was possible to rapidly improve a model with less compute. At risk in the debate is nothing less than American dominance in the AI race.Jared Dunnmon is highly concerned about the trajectory. He recently wrote “The Real Threat of Chinese AI” for Foreign Affairs, and across multiple years at the Defense Department’s DIU office, he has focused on ensuring long-term American supremacy in the critical technologies underpinning AI. That’s led to a complex thicket of policy challenges, from how open is “open-source” and “open-weights” to the energy needs of data centers as well as the censorship latent in every Chinese AI model.Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, the trio talk about the scale of Stargate versus the efficiency of V3, the security models of open versus closed models and which to trust, how the world can better benchmark the performance of different models, and finally, what the U.S. must do to continue to compete in AI in the years ahead.

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