Is artificial intelligence going to lead to the extinction of humanity? What would that even look like? Everyone’s got an opinion: mostly either “that sounds absolutely ridiculous” or “that sounds absolutely terrifying”.In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart do something slightly different. Stuart plays the role of an AI apocalypse sceptic, and grills Tom on all the arguments about the coming AI apocalypse. Happily, Tom has already written a whole book on the subject, so he knows all the answers.The Studies Show is sponsored by Works in Progress magazine, the best place to find insightful essays on science, technology, and human progress. There’s a new issue out right now! We’re very grateful for their support.Show notes* Tom’s book, The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy* arXiv preprint on evolving AI* Katja Grace’s survey of AI researchers* Timothy B. Lee’s Substack post about why he’s not worried about the existential risk of AI* Nature editorial arguing that the AI revolution hasn’t yet helped chemistry* Nature editorial arguing that worrying about AI doomsday is a distractionCreditsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. Get full access to The Studies Show Podcast at www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

Thinking of giving money to charity? Maybe you should give to a charity that does cash transfers - that is, gives the money directly to low-income people with no or minimal strings attached. Many in the “effective altruism” movement, which aims to find the best ways to spend money to improve people’s lives, are big fans of cash transfers to people in developing countries.But lately, some blockbuster studies on cash transfers have come under heavy criticism. Does this cast doubt on the whole idea? In this episode, Tom and Stuart look at these new studies, and the evidence on cash transfers in general. How much do cash transfers really help when it comes to poverty, health, child development, and homelessness?The Studies Show is brought to you the i, the UK’s smartest daily newspaper. Right now you can get a half-price deal on digital subscriptions, including full access to Stuart’s columns and his weekly subscriber-only science newsletter, by following this special podcast link.The Studies Show is also sponsored by Works in Progress, an online magazine about science, technology, and human progress. There’s a new issue of Works in Progress out now, with essays on topics like vaccines, architecture, and the post-war Baby Boom.Show notes* Cost of a guide dog versus the cost of a cataract (or other sight-saving) operation* GiveWell’s page on cash transfers* Trial of GiveDirectly’s programme in Kenya; one of a programme in Uganda* 2016 systematic review on cash transfers from the Overseas Development Institute* 2019 systematic review of cash transfers on many different outcomes* Reviews and meta-analyses of the evidence on cash transfers for: HIV prevention; stunting; young people’s mental health; adolescent and adult mental health* Nature paper on cash transfers for preventing early mortality * Stuart’s critical article in the i* PNAS paper on cash transfers in the US on children’s brain development * Stuart’s critical article in the Atlantic* Andrew Gelman’s post on the study* The book Brainwashed: The Seductive Allure of Mindless Neuroscience* PNAS paper on cash transfers in Canada for homelessness, and its press release* Jon Baron’s critical threadCreditsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. Get full access to The Studies Show Podcast at www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

If you give someone a sugar pill but convince them it’s a real medicine, they might get better because of the power of belief. That’s the standard story, anyway. But as Tom and Stuart find in this episode, the more you dig into the science on placebo effects, the more you begin to doubt that the placebo effect is some innate bodily healing process that responds to beliefs. Instead, it might all just be due to mistakes and biases in the studies. Do we need to completely change the way we think about placebos?The Studies Show is sponsored by Works in Progress magazine, an online magazine full to the brim with the best writing on science, technology, and human progress. Read any of the essays in Works in Progress magazine and you’re guaranteed to come away with a new idea or a new understanding of how things work - we can’t recommend it highly enough.The Studies Show is also sponsored by the i, the UK’s smartest daily newspaper. Right now you can get a half-price deal on digital subscriptions, including full access to Stuart’s weekly subscriber-only science newsletter, by following this special podcast link.Show notes* “The Powerful Placebo” - the paper from 1955 that made the placebo effect famous* The 1965 study on placebo effects when participants know they’re getting a sugar pill* Bad Science column from 2008 on the power of the placebo effect, “the coolest strangest thing in medicine”* Review from 2017 on “open-label placebo” studies* 2018 review on mechanisms of how “placebos without deception” might work * Slate Star Codex article the 5-HTTLPR gene* New England Journal of Medicine review of the placebo effect from 2020* Response to the NEJM review by Dahly and Rafi* 2010 Cochrane review of “Placebo effects for all clinical conditions”* “The pervasive problem of placebos in psychology”* Review & meta-analysis of the placebo effect in studies on back painCreditsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. Get full access to The Studies Show Podcast at www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

On The Studies Show, we’re all about trying to get it right. But sometimes we get it wrong. Every so often, we’ll do a feedback/corrections/clarifications episode where we go back and try to correct any errors in the last few episodes, and reply to your more general feedback. This is the first one of those, covering Episodes 1-8. Our thanks go to everyone who pointed out our mistakes. Please keep the feedback coming!Show notes* Retatrutide phase 2 trial; semaglutide vs. tirzepatide cost-effectiveness study* The IARC’s useful, detailed report on (e.g.) whether being a firefighter is a cancer risk; the FDA disagrees with the IARC on whether aspartame should be labelled as a “possible” cause of cancer* The newest published trial of psilocybin for depression* Stuart’s more recent article on ultra-processed foods, with discussion of mechanisms; Chris Snowdon’s two part review of Chris van Tulleken’s book; interview with Herman Pontzer on his book BurnCreditsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. Get full access to The Studies Show Podcast at www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

In any given school, you’re never more than 6ft away from a poster about “growth mindset”. It’s the massively-popular idea that if you believe that people can change, you’ll put more effort into a task (like studying) and end up doing better at it. On the other hand, if you have a “fixed mindset” and think talent is innate and unchangeable, you won’t put in the effort and you’ll fail to reach your potential.In this episode, Tom and Stuart talk about how the claims about the power of growth mindset have changed over the years, and explain the convoluted back-and-forth story of recent studies and reviews of the evidence. Do growth mindset interventions help kids get better grades? Is growth mindset even a thing? Take a listen to find out.The Studies Show is sponsored by Works in Progress magazine, an online magazine full to the brim with the best writing on science, technology, and human progress. Read any of the essays in Works in Progress magazine and you’re guaranteed to come away with a new idea or a new understanding of how things work - we can’t recommend it highly enough.Remember that you can subscribe to The Studies Show and get an email every time there’s a new episode - just enter your email address in the box below. We’d also love it if you’d consider becoming a paid subscriber and supporting the show - you can also do that below, and you’ll get access to the comments, ask-me-anything opportunities, and (soon) subscriber-only episodes:Show Notes* Tom’s 2017 article on growth mindset on BuzzFeed news* Stuart’s 2022 Substack article “How Growth Mindset Shrank” (including discussion of the various Middle East Peace Process studies)* The 2018 meta-analysis* The 2019 large-scale study of growth mindset in the classroom* Useful online tool to calculate and visualise effect sizes * “Does psychology have a conflict-of-interest problem?” - Tom’s 2019 Nature News article* The first 2023 meta-analysis (the more growth mindset-sceptical one)* The second 2023 meta-analysis (the more growth mindset-supporting one)* Critique of the first 2023 meta-analysis* Devastating response to the critique (and Brooke Macnamara’s thread on the same)CreditsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. Get full access to The Studies Show Podcast at www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe