Intel at the Edge

With the Trump-Xi summit approaching, former CIA senior China analyst Chris Johnson joins “Intel at the Edge” to give an unvarnished assessment of Beijing's priorities, Xi Jinping's mindset, and how China is navigating an increasingly unpredictable America. 

Chris draws on over two decades in the US intelligence and foreign affairs communities to explain what Xi really wants from this summit, how the rare earth standoff reshaped the bilateral relationship, and why China's long-term focus is breaking America's technological chokehold — not winning a diplomatic photo op.

00:00 - Introduction & Guest Bio 

01:35 - How Important Is the Summit to Xi Jinping? 

03:17 - Xi's Real Goal: Stability Over Diplomacy 

04:41 - How Beijing Is Briefing Xi on Trump 

05:01 - Xi's Gamble: The Rare Earth Sword & Staring Trump Down 

06:07 - The Other Side: US Hegemonism Is on the Prowl 

07:13 - The Wounded Animal: How Beijing Reads America Right Now 

07:37 - Xi's Play: Buy Trump Off & Wait Him Out 

20:10 - What Xi Will Put on the Table on Taiwan 

21:18 - Xi's Real Priority: Breaking the Semiconductor Chokehold 

26:14 - Summit Timing & Xi's Return Visit Window 

27:02 - The Atmospherics: How China Stages These Meetings 

28:20 - Trump Treats Xi as an Equal — And Xi Knows It 

28:40 - "Trump Sees Xi as a Badass" 

29:57 - How Confident Is Beijing About Winning the Long Game? 

30:21 - Short Term Confident, Long Term Uncertain 

31:22 - China's Real Problems: Demographics, Debt & the Economy 

32:31 - What Keeps Xi Up at Night 

32:53 - Closing Remarks

 

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

China didn’t just compete with the United States — it harvested America’s innovation. In this episode of “Intel at the Edge” Andrew Badger joins Chip Usher to discuss The Great Heist — the story of how China used industrial espionage, talent recruitment, and a whole-of-society strategy to leapfrog the U.S. in critical technologies. 

From AI and hypersonic missiles to semiconductor manufacturing and electric vehicles, this conversation explores: 

• How China turned WTO entry into a collection apparatus 

• The rise of the Ministry of State Security’s global network 

• The Tesla “billion-dollar thumb drive” case 

• Hypersonic and the Los Alamos connection 

• Why economic security is national security 

• What the U.S. intelligence community must do differently 

If the 20th century was about military dominance, the 21st century is about technological power. The question is not whether China is competing — it’s whether America is prepared. 

00:00 Intro – The Great Heist 

02:20 From DIA to Industrial Espionage 

03:15 WTO 2000: The Turning Point 

06:25 The “Kaspersky Doctrine” Strategy 

08:10 The Most Consequential Economic Heist in History 

10:30 China’s Whole-of-Society Intelligence Model 

13:20 Sun Tzu & The Cultural Mindset Behind Espionage 

17:40 The Cost: $600–800 Billion a Year 

21:05 The Tesla “Billion-Dollar Thumb Drive” 

22:45 Hypersonic & The Los Alamos Connection 

25:15 “We Let Them Do It” – Strategic Distraction 

29:20 The China Initiative & Political Hesitation 

31:35 AI, Quantum & Emerging Tech Theft 

34:20 The Wave Energy Case Study 

36:40 Semiconductor War & ASML 

38:15 Economic Security = National Security 

40:20 Time to Stop Playing Defense 

43:30 OPSEC Mindset & Intelligence Reform 

46:50 Final Thoughts

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

Admiral Michael Studeman joins "Intel at the Edge " to discuss the shifting landscape of Indo-Pacific security. Drawing from his decades of experience in the U.S. Intelligence Community, including as the Director of Intelligence at Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Studeman provides a rare inside look into how America’s intelligence services view China’s growing military power and how Beijing is positioning itself for regional and global leadership. 

Additionally, as Former Director of the Office of Naval Intelligence, Admiral Studeman breaks down the sudden removal of General Zhang Youxia and what it means for the future of the PLA. Is Xi Jinping clearing out "overcautious" generals to make room for "Yes Men!"? We dive deep into China's massive military modernization and why Admiral Studeman believes the "window of greatest danger" is closer than we think.

00:00:09 – Introduction: Admiral Mike Studeman’s 35-Year Career 

00:01:37 – Welcome & Setting the Stage for the China Challenge 

00:02:27 – The Scale and Speed of PLA Modernization 

00:05:09 – China's Navy: A Peer Global Power 

00:07:22 – Latent Power vs. Ready Power: How China Converts Wealth to Military Strength 

00:09:58 – Comprehensive National Power & The Misdiagnosis of China’s Strategy 

00:11:36 – Political Warfare: China’s "Short of War" Expansion 

00:13:55 – Regional Anxiety & China’s Daily Influence Operations 

00:15:25 – Analyzing the Ouster of General Zhang Youxia 

00:19:56 – Xi Jinping’s Fourth Term & The Consolidation of "Yes Men" 

00:21:51 – Pressure Tactics Around Taiwan: An Ongoing Cognitive War

00:25:24 – The "Window of Greatest Danger" (Late 2020s–Early 2030s) 

00:29:28 – Reforming the Intelligence Community: Beyond the "Ivory Tower" 

00:33:49 – Harnessing Open Source & Advanced Technology 

00:39:03 – Economic Intelligence: The Blind Spot of 21st Century Security 

00:41:54 – Protecting National Competitiveness through Private Sector Dialog 

00:44:36 – Advice for the Next Generation: Courage and Iron Integrity 

00:47:12 – Closing Remarks & Future Military Outlook

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

With two U.S. carrier strike groups converging on Iran and a presidential deadline looming, the clock is ticking. In this urgent episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher — Senior Director for Intelligence at the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) — sits down with Norman Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the CIA, to assess what may be one of the most consequential moments in U.S.-Iran relations in decades. 

They cover the state of diplomacy ahead of the Geneva talks, whether Iran will ever genuinely negotiate on its nuclear and missile programs, the risks of miscalculation, Iranian retaliation scenarios, regime stability, and the sweeping transformation reshaping the broader Middle East. Norman Roule spent over three decades as a senior CIA operations officer, including as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran — one of the most critical and sensitive intelligence roles in the U.S. government. 

🔔 Subscribe for more expert intelligence and national security analysis from SCSP. 

00:00 – Introduction: Emergency Podcast on the Iran Situation 

00:40 – Guest Introduction: Norm Roule’s CIA and Intelligence Background 

01:25 – Announcement: AI Plus Intelligence Summit at the Waldorf Astoria 02:03 – Current Military Posture: Carrier Strike Groups and Aircraft Deployment 

02:28 – The Diplomatic Inflection Point and March Deadlines 

03:38 – Core Issues: Iran’s Nuclear Program and Enrichment Deals 

05:31 – U.S. Demands: Missiles and the "Axis of Resistance" 

07:56 – Iran’s Missile Arsenal and ICBM Capabilities 

08:33 – Upcoming Geneva Talks and Potential for Miscalculation 

10:51 – Evaluating Potential U.S. Military Strikes and Iranian Retaliation 

14:06 – Degradation of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian Ballistic Assets 

16:03 – Diplomacy vs. Military Action: What Compels Tehran to Negotiate? 

18:44 – Regime Stability: Domestic Protests and Internal Pressures 

20:54 – Outlook: How the Next Two Weeks Will Play Out 

25:22 – Regional Dynamics: Shifting U.S. Commitments and Middle East Change 

30:25 – Closing Remarks and Future Updates

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

In this episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher is joined by Heather Conley, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a leading expert on Arctic security. Together, they unpack the strategic value of Greenland and the evolving geopolitical stakes in the Arctic. In this episode, we discuss: The Strategic Imperative: Why Greenland serves as a "first line of defense" for North America, providing early warning for ballistic missiles and tracking Russian nuclear submarines. Russia & China’s Presence: How Russia has militarized the region since 2014 and China’s ambition to become a "great polar power" by 2030. The "Ownership" Debate: Analyzing the diplomatic impact of President Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland and what it means for the 225-year relationship with the Kingdom of Denmark. The Future of the Arctic: Why the U.S. needs to prepare for the Arctic of 2040 today by investing in icebreakers, ISR sensors, and a persistent presence. 
00:00 – Introduction 
01:26 – Background on President Trump’s Interest 
02:38 – The Strategic Value of "Eyes and Ears" 
03:47 – Ownership vs. Partnership 
05:15 – Russia: The Arctic Superpower 
07:52 – China: The "Near-Arctic State" Ambition 
09:44 – The North Pacific vs. North Atlantic Vectors 
12:15 – Missile Defense and the "Golden Dome" 
15:13 – Economic Potential: Critical Minerals 
17:37 – The "Alaska First" Perspective 
20:01 – The Icebreaker Gap 
23:08 – History of U.S. Purchase Attempts 
27:59 – Post-Cold War Atrophy 
30:47 – NATO’s Future Role: "Arctic Sentry" 
35:25 – The Next Strategic Frontiers: Seabed and Space

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.